Rural Idaho Since the RecessionPriscilla Salant, Director

McClure Center for Public Policy ResearchUniversity of Idaho

August 12, 2015

www.indicatorsidaho.org

TITLE 67STATE GOVERNMENT AND STATE AFFAIRS

CHAPTER 90IDAHO RURAL DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP ACT

(1)Assess conditions of rural Idaho;

(2)Advise the governor and the legislature on public policy and strategies to improve the quality of life in rural Idaho;...

(6)Serve as a nonpartisan forum for identifying and understanding rural issues from all perspectives;

.

We use OMB’s definition of “rural”

All 32 counties other than these metro areas:•Coeur d’Alene (1 county)•Lewiston (1 county)•Boise-Nampa-Caldwell (5 counties)•Pocatello (1 county plus 1 w Logan MSA)•Idaho Falls (3 counties)

SOURCE: US Census Bureau

Rural Idahoans make up a declining but significant share of the population

44

34

1814

1980 1990 2000 2010

Rural Idaho Rural US

548,000 in 2014Percent

SOURCE: USDA, Economic Research Service

Population growth has been uneven across Idaho

SOURCE: US Census Bureau

Population change (%), 2010-2014

Clark -11.7

Butte -9.3

Camas -7.0

Custer -5.2

Elmore -3.5

Decline

Ada 8.6

Canyon 7.5

Kootenai 6.4

Twin Falls 4.8

Bonneville 4.2

Growth

Rural Idaho is growing only because of Hispanics

0

46

10

-1

4

Nonmet ID Metro ID

Population change by ethnicity, 2010-2013

Total Population Hispanic Non-Hispanic

SOURCE: US Census Bureau

Adams 34

Lemhi 25

Lewis 23

Benewah 20

Nez Perce 19

Hispanic growth (%), 2010-2013

Population change: Net migration and births minus deaths

SOURCE: US Census Bureau

4

1

6

3 3 31

-2

3

IDAHO Rural ID Urban ID

Population change and its components, 2010-2014

Population change (%)Natural change (%)Net migration rate (%)

Natural change rate (%),2010-2014

Clearwater -2.0

Shoshone -1.8

Lemhi -1.0

Boise -0.6

Washington -0.5

Unemployment rates are down from the peak. Rural rates are slightly higher than urban.

SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.3

9.1

5.1

2.9

9.0

4.7

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Unemployment rate, 2007-2014

Recession years Rural Urban

Average annual unemployment rate (%), 2014

Shoshone 10.0

Adams 10.0

Clearwater 9.4

Benewah 8.1

Lemhi 7.7

High unemployment

Owyhee 3.3

Madison 3.3

Franklin 3.4

Teton 3.9

Oneida 3.9

Low unemployment

Job numbers are below pre-recession levels in both rural and urban Idaho

SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

310,458 291,049 298,497

620,644577,057 604,949

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Number of jobs, 2007-2013

Recession years Rural Urban

Change in number of jobs (%), 2007-2013

Valley -17

Blaine -16

Lemhi -15

Bonner -11

Clearwater -11

Decline

Camas 39

Clark 28

Lewis 14

Lincoln 11

Oneida 5

Growth

Rural wages remain lower than urban but are starting to catch up

SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

33,762 33,978 34,080

40,701 39,873 39,511

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Average wage per job ($), 2007-2013

Recession years Rural Urban

NOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars

Average wage per job ($), 2013

Oneida 25,718

Boise 26,767

Franklin 27,433

Gem 29,042

Jefferson 29,067

Low wages

Butte 85,463

Caribou 49,096

Camas 45,927

Ada 43,937

Custer 41,464

High wages

Surprising trend in per capita income: rural is catching up to urban, which appears stalled.

SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic AnalysisNOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars

34,329

35,805

38,658

36,320

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Per capita personal income, 2007-2013

Recession years Rural Urban

Per capita personal income ($), 2013

Madison 22,987

Canyon 25,606

Boundary 29,668

Gem 30,597

Teton 30,910

Low income

Blaine 67,513

Clark 53,416

Camas 49,054

Gooding 46,244

Lewis 43,378

High income

The picture is mixed in Idaho’s farm-dependent counties.Since the recession…•Population numbers: flat•Jobs: up slightly and more than in Idaho as a whole•Unemployment rates: below the state level and falling•Average wages: slightly higher than the state level

Clark -11.7

Camas -7.0

Fremont -2.8

Gooding -2.6

Power -2.6

Minidoka 1.3

Jerome 2.0

Lincoln 2.1

Cassia 2.6

Population change (%), 2010-2014

Policy Implications

•Highway funding• Early childhood and K-12 education – from school

boards to broadband•College access•Public lands including new wilderness designations•And more ….