Russian Agri-Food Economy: Russian Agri-Food Economy: Today and TomorrowToday and Tomorrow

Eugenia SerovaAnalytical Centre for Agri-Food

EconomicsMoscow

http://www.iet.ru/afe

Major results of the agrarian reforms in the 1990s dynamics farms structure land tenure competitiveness agrarian policy

Prospective and problems policy, WTO rural development R&D

DynamicsDynamicsGrowth Rate of GAO

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

I-IX

2005

DynamicsDynamicsGrowth Rate in Food Industry

-16

-6

4

14

1986

-199

0 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

I-IX

2005

DynamicsDynamicsAgri-Food Trade

- 15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004US

$ m

io

export import balance

Farms structureFarms structureLand use shares by type of farms, %

98%

0% 2% Enterprises

Farmers

Hoseholds

86%

8%6%

1990 2000

Farms structureFarms structureGAO shares by type of farms, %

69%

31%

0%Enterprises

Households

Farmers 45%

51%

4%

1990 2000

Farms structureFarms structureVolume index of agricultural production, 1990=100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

%

Large-scale farms Households

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

%

Share in GAO (nominal prices), %

Farms structureFarms structureFarm Production Concentration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% farms

sh

are

in

sa

les

,%

2001

1995

Farms structureFarms structure Frequency of cost production of grain in Rostov area, RUR/t

Farms structureFarms structure Agroholdings in 2002-2003 (survey of IKAR)

Number of agroholdings 133

Land per agroholding, ‘000 ha 56.4

Number of farms per agroholding 9

Land per farm, ‘000 ha 6.6

Sales per agroholding, USD mln. ~20

Sales per farm, USD mln. ~2

Sales per ha, USD ~400

Farms structureFarms structure Distribution of households by gross ag. output, one rayon

case

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

250000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

households

‘000

RU

R

Land tenureLand tenure

29%

2%

69%

individual

legal entities

state&municipal

farmlands

Property titles for agricultural lands and farmlands, 2001

Land tenureLand tenureProperty titles for farmlands, 2001 (survey results)

  Farm enterprises

Family farmers

Households

Rent 61 57 3

Own 36 42 93

Other titles

3 1 4

Total 100 100 100

CompetitivenessCompetitiveness

020406080

100120

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

051015202530

grain (left axis) sugar beet sunflower

CompetitivenessCompetitiveness

892

18%

766

17%

748

17%

690

15%630

13%

690

13%859

15%

1068

16%0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

'00

0 t

Poultry Cattle Pigs Sheep &goats Other

CompetitivenessCompetitivenessProduction cost distribution, mode

CompetitivenessCompetitivenessAgri-food exports

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

US

D m

io

CompetitivenessCompetitivenessGrain Exports

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

barley wheat

PolicyPolicy

-110

-60

-10

40

90

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Producer Support Estimates, %

PolicyPolicyImport Tariff, AVE %

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

poul

try

red

mea

t

red

mea

t

fish

dairy

cear

eals

cere

als

flour

oil s

eeds

caca

o

past

a

vega

tabl

es

beve

arge

s

TRQ: beef and pork

Volume quota: poultry

Variable import duty: sugar

PolicyPolicyImport Tariff Structure

  USAUSA EU-15EU-15 JapanJapan BrazilBrazil MexicoMexico KenyaKenya IndiaIndia RussiaRussia

MeanMean 11.9 20.5 80.1 35.6 44.4 100 116 13

MedianMedian 3.8 10.9 12 35 36 100 100 15

MinMin 0 0 0 0 0 100 10 0

MaxMax 378.7 218.5 2553.6 55 450.7 100 300 50

Std. Std. deviationdeviation

33 29.4 203.3 11.2 42.1 0 52.5 9

# of tariff # of tariff lineslines

1769 2200 1806 942 1080 665 690 847

PolicyPolicyAg. Budget Structure

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2001

2002

2003

2004

Federal Regional Local

PolicyPolicyAg. Budget Dynamic, RUR

-

10 000,00

20 000,00

30 000,00

40 000,00

50 000,00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Federal Consolidated

PolicyPolicyGreen Box Meqasures

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

%

0,23

0,23

0,55

1,28

0,21

0,34

2,01

0,83

0,62

0,27

0,25

-0,80 0,20 1,20 2,20

Australia

Czech

Island

Korea

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Switzerland

USA

OECD

Russia

Prospective and problemsProspective and problems

WTO Accession Rural Development Research Human Capital