RUSSIAN ENERGY — 2015 · 21 Primary crude oil refining in Russia 21 Crude oil refining in Russia...

RUSSIAN ENERGY — 2015Release — September 2016

CONTENTS

Russian Energy — 2015 3

5 Macroeconomy6 Economic growth in the leading economies

of the world

7 Economic growth in Russia and leading world economies (quarterly data)

8 Monthly dynamics of industrial production in Russia and leading industrial economies of the world

8 Main commodity prices (IMF indices)

9 Dynamics of main exchange rates

10 Change in investments in fixed capital of Russia

10 External trade of Russia: exports and imports of goods, trade balance

10 Structure of Russian federal budget incomes and non-oil-and-gas federal budget deficit

11 Energy intensity of Russian GDP according to different estimates

11 СO2 emissions in Russia and other countries

13 OIL14 Countries with largest oil reserves

14 Russia’s share in the world oil reserves

15 Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia

15 Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia by region

16 Top oil producing countries

16 Russia’s share in the world oil production

17 Сrude oil production by leading Russian oil companies

18 Top oil consuming countries

18 Russia’s share in the world oil consumption

19 Production and flaring of associated gas in Russia

19 Associated gas flaring by region

19 Associated gas utilisation

20 Countries with largest refining capacities

20 Russia’s share in the world refining capacity

21 Primary crude oil refining in Russia

21 Crude oil refining in Russia

22 Basic petroleum products output

22 Motor fuel output by emission standarts in Russia

22 Gasoline output structure in Russia

23 Petroleum products shipment in russian regions

24 Russian crude oil and petroleum products exports

24 Russian petroleum products exports to OECD countries

25 World oil prices

25 Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia (spimex)

25 Average motor fuel prices in Russia

26 Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia by region

27 Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia by region

28 Investment in Russian oil sector

28 Percentage change in oil cector investment

Russian Energy — 2015 4

29 Natural Gas30 Countries with the largest natural gas reserves

30 Russia’s share in the world natural gas reserves

31 Top natural gas producing couturiers

31 Russia’s share in the world natural gas production

32 The share of LNG in the world gas trade

32 Russia and other countries in world exports of natural gas

33 Russia`s largest natural gas fields: reserves

34 Major producing gas fields in Russia

35 Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption and exports

35 Russia’s natural gas production by region

36 Russia’s natural gas production by company

36 Independent gas producers in Russia

37 Russia`s natural gas consumption by sector

37 Natural gas consumption in the top natural gas consuming countries

37 Investment for Russian regions gasification

37 Russia’s gasification level

38 LNG production and exports in Russia

38 Share of Russia`s LNG exports by destination

38 CNG consumption in road transport

38 The world prices of natural gas

39 Share of Russia`s natural gas exports by destination

41 Coal42 Countries with largest coal reserves

42 Top coal producing countries

42 Russia’s share in the world coal production

43 Explored coal reserves in Russia by main basin

43 Coal production in Russia by main basin

44 Coal production in Russia by region

44 Coal production and upgrading (at plants) in Russia by type

45 Russian investment in coal industry

45 Largest coal producers in Russia

46 Top coal consuming countries

46 Russia’s share in the world coal consumption

47 Coal consumption in Russia

47 Average domestic coal prices in Russia

48 Structure of Russia’s coal exports by destination

49 Top coal exporting countries

49 World coal prices

49 Russia’s share in the world coal exports

51 Petrochemicals52 Production of petrochemical feedstocks

in Russia

52 Synthetic rubber production in Russia

52 Petrochemical feedstocks refining

53 Plastics production in primary forms in Russia

53 Average annual producers prices of some petrochemical products

54 International trade volumes of some petrochemical products

54 Russian investments in petrochemical industry

55 Change in polymers production and consumption in Russia

57 Electricity58 Installed capacity in Russia

58 Additional power capacity in UES of Russia in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (CDA)

59 Investments in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Russia

59 Change in investments in electricity in fixed capital of Russia

60 Average electricity price by consumers (nominal prices)

60 Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry

61 Electricity consumption growth in the UES of Russia

61 Industrial Production Index in Russia and federal districs

MACROECONOMYGlobal economic growth decelerated in 2015 because of a slowdown in big emerging economies but that gives a hope for stabilization or even reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

Brazil IndiaUSJapanItalyUKFranceGermanyRussia

-10,0

-5,0

0

5,0

10,0

15,0

China

Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 6

Economic growth in the leading economies of the world2005-2015, % ch. y/y

In 2015 the global economy faced the new slowdown: its growth equaled rate only of 3.1%. That was the worst result since 2002, except the crisis of 2008-2009. Growth rates in emerging economies are going down for the fifth consecutive year, while developed countries demonstrated in 2015 the most rapid upturn for the last 5 years.

The dynamics of developing countries was supported by India: for the first time in the XXI century India overcame China in terms of economic growth indicators, and that relation between the two economies will (most probably) remain stable, due to Chinese structural economic downturn. Brazil and Russia as commodity-dependent economies sharply stopped in 2015.

Source: IMF

ЕU-28

China

US

Russia

I II

2013 2014 2015

III IV I II III IV I II III IV

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

-0,3

0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

1,5

1,7

1,9

2,1

2,3

2,5


Economic growth in Russia and leading world economies (quarterly data) 2013–2015, % ch. q/q, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: World Bank, Eurostat

Economic growth in China in each quarter of 2015 was slightly less than in the same quarter of 2014. But there were no instant drops. Consequently annual growth went under 7 %. Planned targets for 2016 are also set around this level.

Low energy prices partially helped to maintain sustainable growth in the USA (2.4 % as in the previous year) and in the EU (almost 2 %, in 2014 it was 1.4 %) but their influence was ambiguous: they had a negative impact on investments, so that the slowdown in US in late 2015 is partially attributed to that effect. In addition, low energy prices strengthened the deflationary pressure, which constrained economic activity in the developed countries. Moreover, the acceleration of the economic growth in the EU was due to the weakness of euro in 2015.

The Russian economy went through a hard landing in early 2015 but in the second half of the year the situation stabilized. GDP fell by 3.7 % in 2015. The crisis was especially sharp in manufacturing (–5.1 % of value added compared to 2014), construction (–7.4 %) and trade (–10 %), while mining (+1.1 %) and agriculture (+3.1 %) increased their value added in real terms.

90

104

118

111

97

125

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 20152013 2014 20152013 2014 2015

USGermany Russia China

2013 2014 201530

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

agricultural raw materials foodmetals energy


Monthly dynamics of industrial production in Russia and leading industrial economies of the world

Main commodity prices (IMF indices)

2013-2015, Dec. 2012 = 100, seasonally adjusted data

2013–2015, Jan. 2013 = 100

Source: IMF

Sources: World Bank, Rosstat

According to World Bank, the growth of global industrial production in 2015 was at its bottom rate since the crisis of 2008-2009.

The strength of the dollar in 2015 negatively affected the US industry. An additional issue was considered to be of problems was the tough situation in oil and gas production.

Russian industry faced a collapse in early 2015 with the easement in the second half of the year. Textile & clothing industry and machinery manufacturing were among the worst performers: they experienced an essential drop in production by reached about 10 % in 2015. Food and chemicals industries, on the contrary, significantly grew (+2.0 % and +6,3 % respectively).

The growth of industrial production in China was uneven in the context of the slowdown of external demand and internal investments. Ultimately it considerably fell: from 8.2 % in 2014 to 6.2 % in 2015.

Metal prices dropped too: IMF metals index fell dramatically by almost 30 % during 2015. Aluminum and lead kept stronger positions (prices fell only by 10-20 %), while the most considerable decrease in prices took place on the markets for nickel and iron ore (–40-45 %). The latest developments contributed to a collapse of steel prices at LME and to a more or less strong price drops in markets for different kinds of rolled products.

In 2015 commodity prices plunged under the influence of global economic slowdown. The most significant losses were spotted in the energy sector: IMF energy commodities index plummeted by 39 % during 2015. Coal demonstrated slightly better performance than other energy carriers: it lost only 15-30 % of price on different markets.

The decrease in food prices reached 15 % by the end of 2015 in comparison to the beginning of the year. The sharpest decline was spotted on the markets for meat (beef, pork, lamb cheapened by approximately 30 %) and certain grains (prices for wheat and soybean meal also fell by 30 %). World prices for sugar and fruits remained generally stable. Tea became more expensive (by more than 40 %) because of a poor harvest in Kenya, which is considered to be key global supplier.

0,5янв мар май июл сен ноя

2013 2014 2015

янв мар май июл сен ноя янв мар май июл сен ноя

0,7

0,9

1,1

1,3

1,5

0,50

0,55

0,60

0,65

0,70

20

30

50

70

80

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,4

1,5

1,3

40

60

Rubles per USD

Pounds per USD

100 yen per USD

USD per euro


Dynamics of main exchange rates2013-2015

After the rally of US dollar in the second half of 2014, its exchange rate remained generally stable and relatively high in 2015 amid the absence of sharp movements in the Fed policies and the presence of low commodity prices.

The exchange rate of Russian ruble followed oil prices, as expected. It strengthened in mid-2015 and fell again afterwards. Nevertheless, despite even more significant fall of oil prices in 2015, the exchange rate was kept at a level not weaker than 70 rubles per 1 USD.

Source: Thomson Reuters

Extraction of energy resources

Oil refining

Electricity, gas and heat

Pipeline transportation

Total (the whole economy)

218,3–70,3–341,2–87,0

–1167,3 –10,2

10,7–13,2–29,1–11,4

absolute change to 2014bln rubles (constant prices)

per cent change, physical volume% to 2014

100

200

300

400

500

600

10

14

16

20

22

18

12

20122011201020092008200720062005 20152014201320152014

exports imports trade balance

jan mar may jul sep nov jan mar may jul sep nov

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

20152014

oil and gas incomes

non-oil and gas incomes

non-oil deficit

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

20152014

oil and gas incomes

non-oil and gas incomes

non-oil deficit


Change in investments in fixed capital of Russia

Structure of Russian federal budget incomes and non-oil-and-gas federal budget deficit

External trade of Russia: exports and imports of goods, trade balance

2015 to 2014 (without small enterprises and statistically unobservable investments)

2014-2015, trln rubles

2005-2015, bln USD

Source: Rosstat Source: The Ministry of Finance of Russia

Source: World Bank

The crisis of 2015 heavily damaged the investment climate in Russia: the decline was obvious already in 2014 but in 2015 its scope at least doubled. Unlike in 2014, decrease in investments strongly affected energy industries, especially power sector, which suffers from excess capacities.

Power sector and transports (including pipeline transportation) made the greatest contribution to the drop in investments in the Russian economy (real estate and manufacturing — to a lesser degree).

Extraction of energy resources demonstrated the rise in investments due to oil and LNG industries. Sharp decline of oil prices in 2015 inevitably led to the decrease in Russian federal budget incomes by 850 bln rubles. Non-oil-and-gas incomes grew thanks to VAT (because of a higher inflation rate) and receipts from public assets (because of ruble devaluation and consequent growth of foreign assets in terms of rubles).

The increase of non-oil-and-gas incomes gave an opportunity to raise budget expenses in 2015 by more than 770 bln rubles without any aggravation of non-oil-and-gas deficit.

Further downsurge of energy prices in 2015 put Russian exports under pressure, while the opportunities of import substitution were restricted, and partially they were activated already in 2014. Consequently, the worsening of trade balance was inevitable in 2015. The situation especially aggravated in the second half of the year, following the new drop in commodity prices.

RussiaEU USWorld China

IEABP Rosstat

0,18

0,19

0,20

0,21

0,22

0,23

0,24

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005


Energy intensity of Russian GDP according to different estimates2005-2015, toe / th. USD-2011 (PPP)

Different estimates simultaneously give evidence of the improvement of energy efficiency in Russia in 2011-2013 by almost 5 %. There is some controversy in later data. Nevertheless, the crisis in 2014-2015, most probably, torpedoed the development of energy efficiency in Russia.

Sources: IEA, BP, Rosstat

СO2 emissions in Russia and other countries2005-2015, bln t

In 2015 global CO2 emissions might be very close to their all-time peak. The growth of CO2 emissions was only 0.1 %. The slowdown of the Chinese economy and the second consecutive year of coal consumption decline in China became significant factors this result. According to BP, growth of CO2 emissions in China stopped in 2014, and in 2015 it became negative. It was still insufficient to provide global CO2 emissions decrease but the progress is far more far more obvious.

Source: BP

OILIncrease in crude oil and petroleum products exports in Russia was accompanied by primary crude oil refining reduction

10

20

30

40

50

Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Russia Kuwait UAE

0

2

4

6

8

10

2015201020052000

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 14

Countries with largest oil reserves Russia’s share in the world oil reserves2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, bln t

2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, %In 2010-2015 the split of the proven oil reserves didn’t change much. Venezuela still held the leadership after multiplying its four times investigated reserves sine 2000 thanks to heavy and extra heavy oil of Orinoco oil belt.

Source: BP

20

40

60

80

100

2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

other

Far East

North West

Siberia

Ural

Volga

100

200

300

400

500

600

201520142013г2012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000


Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia

Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia by region

2000—2015, Mt

2000–2015, %

Crude oil production in Ural Federal District continues to decrease (by 0.4 Mt in 2015) but it still provides more than half of total Russian crude oil production (56.2 %). However, crude oil production decline rate stabilized at 1 % per year.

Crude oil production drop on mature fields in Ural Federal District is compensated by rise in production in Volga Federal District (stable growth throughout the whole reporting period due the to tax breaks and the application of enhanced oil recovery methods) and by expansion of greenfields exploration in Siberian (by 1.7 Mt) and Far Eastern Federal Districts (by 3 Mt).

Crude oil and condensate production in Russia in 2015 increased by 8.2 Mt (+3.6 %), indicating a continuous growth in liquid hydrocarbon production in the country since 2009 (on average by 1.3 % per year).

Nevertheless, oil production growth rates in Russia are decreasing driven by gradual entering oil production plateau and increase in tight oil production share.

Source: Rosstat

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

US Saudi Arabia Russia China Canada UAE Iran Iraq

10

11

12

13

14

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005


Top oil producing countries Russia’s share in the world oil production2005–2015, Mt

2005–2015, %In 2015, the world’s oil supply grew by 2,8 %. The Russia’s share in the global oil production continued to decrease despite the growth of the overall production. In 2015, the USA fostered its leadership in oil production, despite the fall of global market prices. Among the OPEC member states, it was Iraq which came up with the highest increase in oil production.

Source: IEA

50

100

150

200

RussNeftBashneftTatneftGazprom NeftSurgutneftegazLukoilRosneft

20132012 2014 2015

189,2190,6

87,2

61,4

31,6 26,315,5 8,9

85,7

61,6

34,327,2

19,97,4


Сrude oil production by leading Russian oil companies2012–2015, Mt

Three of seven leading Russian oil-producing companies decline in output: Rosneft (–1.7 Mt), RussNeft (–1.2 Mt) and LUKOIL (–0.9 Mt). The rest of the companies increased oil production with the largest absolute increase in Bashneft (+2 Mt)

Source: CDU TEK

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

US Japan Russia India Brazil Saudi ArabiaChina

2

3

4

5

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005


Top oil consuming countries Russia’s share in the world oil consumption2005–2015, Mt

2005–2015, %In 2015, the overall global of oil consumption increased by 2 %, which was mainly made possible thanks to the plunging prices. The consumption growth in developed countries was 1 %, whereas in developing countries it was considerably higher — 2,3 % (mostly on the strength of the consumption growth in the Asian market). Russia’s share in the world oil consumption decreased for the first time since 2009.

Source: IEA

20

40

60

80

2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

production flaring

20

40

60

80

100

20152014201320122011201020092008

Оther

North West

Volga

Ural

Siberia

60

66

72

78

84

90

2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000


The rate of associated gas utilisation in 2015 reached 88.2 % (+3 p. p. as compared with 2015) and exceeded all-time high of 1995 by 7.2 p. p. despite the continuous growth in crude oil production. Resulting from legislative changes which encouraged encouraged investment in associated gas utilization and processing).

Far Eastern Federal District demonstrated the highest rate of utilization (96.7 %) while the lowest rate was recorded in Northwestern Federal District (62.2 %).

Siberian Federal District is the leading region in terms of associated gas flaring volume (38.8 % of total Russian volume) passed ahead of the former leader — Ural Federal District (27.4 %) — in 2012. This shift is attributed to changes in geographical structure of crude oil production (greenfields output growth with no prepared infrastructure for utilization) and higher rate arrangements in mature oil-producing regions.

Source: Rosstat Source: Rosstat

Source: Rosstat

Production and flaring of associated gas in Russia

Associated gas utilisation

2000–2015, bcm

2000–2015, %

Associated gas flaring by region2008–2015, %

200

400

600

800

1000

US South KoreaChina ЕU Russia India Japan Brazil IranSaudi Arabia

4

5

6

7

8

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005


Countries with largest refining capacities

Russia’s share in the world refining capacity

2005–2015, Mt 2005–2015, %

In the years 2010-2014 the world’s refining capacities continued to grow by 1-2 % per year. The major sources of this growth are in the Middle East and Asia. Russia’s share in the global refining capacities continued as well. At the same time in the EU refining industry experienced a durable reduction of capacities.

Source: ВР

67

69

71

73

75

201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015


Crude oil refining in Russia in 2015 recorded 287.2 Mt, which is 7.2 Mt lower than in the previous year (–2.4 %). The largest absolute decrease was recorded in Volga Federal District — by 9.9 Mt (8.7 %). Nevertheless it is still the leading crude oil refining region (35.9 % of total Russia crude oil refining volume). The largest absolute increase was recorded in Southern (+1.8 Mt) and Ural (+1.7 Mt) Federal Districts.

Average refining depth in Russia in 2015 reached 74.1 % (+0.7 p. p. versus 2014) and exceeded all-time high of 2008 by 2 p. p. due to Russian refineries modernisation which is scheduled to be completed by 2020.

Source: Rosstat

Source: Rosstat

Primary crude oil refining in Russia

Crude oil refining depth in Russia

2005–2015, Mt

2000–2015, %

South

Far East

Siberia

Ural

Center

North West

Volga

20

40

60

80

100

2011 2012 2013 201520142011 2012 20142013 2015

Gasoline Diesel

Euro 3 and below Euro 4 Euro 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

201520142013201220112010

МON-76 (RON-80) RON-92 RON-95 RON-98

20052000 2008 2015 20052000 2008 2015 20052000 2008 2015

20

40

60

80

Gasoline Diesel Heating Oil


Basic petroleum products output in Russia in 2015 decreased by 7 Mt (–3.6 %). The fall was mostly driven by heating oil output reduction — 6.8 Mt (–8.7 %). Diesel output declined by 1 Mt (1.3 %) while that of gasoline increased by 1 Mt. The share of RON-95 gasoline continues to grow (+12.7 p. p. during last five years). The share of Euro-5 motor fuels has shown considerable rise: up to 84.4% for gasoline and 73.2% for diesel.

Source: Ministry of Energy

Source: Rosstat

Source: Rosstat

Basic petroleum products output in Russia

Gasoline output structure in Russia

2000, 2005 and 2008–2015, Mt

2010–2015, %

Motor fuel output by emission standarts in Russia2011–2015, %

Moscow OblastYaroslavl OblastMoscow

Komi RepublicLeningrad OblastMurmansk OblastSt. Petersburg

Krasnodar KraiVolgograd OblastRostov Oblast

Republic of DagestanRepublic of North Ossetia-AlaniaStavropol Krai

Republic of BashkortostanRepublic of TatarstanNizhny Novgorod OblastSamara Oblast

Sverdlovsk OblastTyumen (exclusive of autonomous okrugs)Chelyabinsk Oblast

Krasnoyarsk KraiIrkutsk OblastKemerovo OblastNovosibirsk OblastOmsk Oblast

Primorsk KraiKhabarovsk Krai

Republic of Crimea

3815187

1521

14813181521113

1237678

1008

23880

593

133410819271677

1096581728

795654614767458

467736

316

Center

NorthWest

South

NorthCaucasus

Volga

Ural

Siberia

Far East

Crimea

23505651163

562881346987

3832488573

1836212

8141453562

1603

6461526

521

8699801256434505

5161201

99

176231

289

9844101323679

699628

360

000

413336

73165

1126

19

227363300

35111

24881286

4

Gasoline shipment Diesel shipment Heating oil shipmentShare of Federal District in total Russia output

Gasoline Diesel Heating oil

Individual regions performance

26,8% 23,4% 4,1%

11,0% 11,8% 32,4%

9,9% 14,5% 33,9%

3,1% 0,8% 0%

21,7% 17,7% 5,3%

9,0% 10,8% 0,8%

13,4% 14,5% 5,3%

4,2% 6,2% 18,2%

0,9% 0,3% 0%


Source: Rosstat

Petroleum products shipment in Russian regions2015, kt

27,7

5,0

25,6

1,3

4,0

12,410

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Naphtha

Gasoline

Kerosene

Diesel fuel

Fuel oil

Other petroliumproducts

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014

Russia's share in OECD countries imports of petroleum products 2000-2015, %

7

9

11

13

15

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

50

100

150

200

50

100

150

200

250

300

Russian crude oil exports

Russian petroleum products exports

200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014

200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014

Far-abroad countries CIS countries

50

100

150

200

50

100

150

200

250

300

Russian crude oil exports

Russian petroleum products exports

200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014

200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014

Far-abroad countries CIS countries


Source: Rosstat Source: IEA

Russian petroleum products exports to OECD countries2005–2015, Mt

Russian crude oil and petroleum products exports 2000–2015, Mt

In 2015, the export of oil to the OECD countries increased again. The growth was supported by the demand for motor gasoline, diesel oil and fuel oil, whereas the naphtha shipment to OECD countries fell.

Russian crude oil exports oil exports recorded the first growth since 2009 and amounted to 244.5 Mt (+21.1 Mt versus 2014). Exports of petroleum products also increased by 6.7 Mt and amounted to 171.5 Mt. Crude oil (90.6 %) and petroleum products (95.2 %) from Russia almost entirely went to far-abroad countries.

40

60

80

100

120

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

WTIBrent Urals OPEC oil basket

25

30

35

40

201620152014201320122011

MON-76 (RON-80) RON-92 (RON-93)

RON-95 and above Diesel

200

400

600

20152014201320122011201020092008

10

20

20152014201320122011201020092008

40

80

120

20152014201320122011201020092008

Turnover, mln rubles

Volume, mln t

Number of contracts, 1,000 units


In 2015, the increasing oversupply in the global oil market brought down prices more than by half. Fearful of the loss of their market share, the OPEC member states refused to reduce their production, although

by doing that, they could have maintained higher global prices. Meanwhile, the oil producers in the USA, Canada and some other countries proved to be more resilient, than expected, towards low prices.

Gasoline prices increased in January 2016 on average by 1.6 rubles (year-on-year) or by 4.7 %. RON-95 gasoline showed the highest price growth — by 1.65 rubles. Diesel prices increased by 1.07 ruble (+3.1 %).

In 2015 SPIMEX demonstrated the first annual drop in petroleum products exchange trading performance since its launch in 2008. Turnover and trading volumes amounted to 496 mln rubles (–25 mln rubles versus 2014) and 15.9 Mt (–1.5 Mt) respectively, while the number of contracts recorded 101,500 units. This results from the stagnation of domestic motor fuels market and ruble devaluation. The leading exchange market participants include Rosneft (33.3 % of total sales), Gazprom Neft (16.2 %), LUKOIL (12.3 %) Gazprom (11.3 %) and Surgutneftegaz (10.2 %). RON-92 gasoline, summer diesel and RON-95 gasoline account for substantial volumes of exchange trading in petroleum products — 29.7 %, 18.2 % and 12.4 % respectively.

Source: SPIMEX

Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Rosstat

World oil prices Average motor fuel prices in Russia2005–2015, $/bbl

Jan 2011 – Jan 2016, rubles/l

Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia (SPIMEX)2008–2015

<5 5–10 10–15 15–20 >20 30 32 34 38 45 50 55

2

3

5

7

6

8

9

18

14

11

15

16

17

19

21

22

23

4

1

12

13

20

1024

25

2726


Source: Rosstat

Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia by regionRefining Capacity2015, rubles/lmtpy

OmskKirishiRyazanKstovoYaroslavlMoscowPermVolgogradAngarskUfaSyzranNovokuybyshevskKomsomolsk-on-AmurTyumenSalavatAchinskNizhnekamskSamaraSaratovOrskKhabarovskTuapseUkhtaKrasnodarNovoshakhtinsk

12345678910, 14, 18111213151617192021222324252627

<5 5–10 10–15 15–20 >20 0 7 11 17–6 5 9 15

2

3

5

7

6

8

9

18

14

11

15

16

17

19

21

22

23

4

1

12

13

20

1024

25

2726


Source: Rosstat

Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia by regionRefining CapacityJanuary 2015 – January 2016, %mtpy

OmskKirishiRyazanKstovoYaroslavlMoscowPermVolgogradAngarskUfaSyzranNovokuybyshevskKomsomolsk-on-AmurTyumenSalavatAchinskNizhnekamskSamaraSaratovOrskKhabarovskTuapseUkhtaKrasnodarNovoshakhtinsk

12345678910, 14, 18111213151617192021222324252627

300

600

900

1200

1500

Crude oilproduction

Petroleumproducts output

Crude oil transport by pipeline

−20

−10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Crude oilproduction

Petroleumproducts output

Crude oil transport by pipeline


Investment in Russian oil sector

Percentage change in oil sector investment

2010–2015 , bln rubles

2011–2015 (year-on-year), %

Source: Rosstat

Investment in Russian oil sector in 2015 exceeded the level of 2014, but the growth was fueled only by crude oil production (+342.1 bln rubles), while investment in petroleum products output and pipeline transportation of crude oil decreased by 8.8 and 14.9 bln rubles respectively. This results mostly from significant ruble devaluation: drop in ruble costs of crude oil production and rise in dollar costs of imported equipment needed for refineries modernization.

NATURAL GASRussia in 2015: decrease in production and domestic consumption and increase in exports

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Iran Russia Qatar Turkmenistan US Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Nigeria

18,0

18,5

19,0

19,5

20,0

2015201020052000

Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 30

As new gas fields had been discovered in Iran, Turkmenistan and USA, Russia’s share in the world gas reserves has significantly shrank in 2005-2015, although it slowly went up from 2011 to 2015.

Source: BP

Countries with the largest natural gas reserves 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, tcm

Russia’s share in the world natural gas reserves2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, %

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

IranRussia Qatar CanadaUS China Norway

15

17

19

21

23

25

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005


Russia’s share in global gas production fell due to the increase in gas production in the USA, Qatar and Iran. In 2012, it lost its lead in gas production to the USA, where the increase was provided thanks to the shale gas. China has also increased its annual gas production, having overtaken Norway in 2013. Iran overtook Qatar in gas production in 2014.

Source: BP

Top natural gas producing countries2005-2015, bcm

Russia’s share in the world natural gas production2005-2015, %

5

15

25

35

2014201320122011201020092008200720062005

2014201320122011201020092008200720062005

200

300

400

600

700

800

77,9

106,6

59,3

44,8

56,8 Turkmenistan

Algeria

Netherlands

Canada

Norway

118,9 Qatar

187,9 Russia

500

100

0


Source: IEA

Source: IEA

Russia and other countries in world exports of natural gas

The share of LNG in the world gas trade

2005-2014, bcm2005-2014, %

Urengoy

Bovanenkovo

Shtokman

Yamburg

Astrakhan

Zapolyarnoye

Kovyktinskoye

Kharasaveyskoye

Kruzenshternskoye

Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye

Yuzhno-Russkoye

Severo-Tambeyskoye

Kharampur

Chayandinskoye

Orenburg

Medvezhye

5333430439393109

308723531563142213491003862862814

708664564

Chayandinskoye

Kovyktinskoye

Astrakhan

Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye

Yamburg

Medvezhye

Bovanenkovo

Kharasaveyskoye

Kruzenshternskoye

Urengoy

ZapolyarnoyeYuzhno-Russkoye

Severo-Tambeyskoye

Orenburg

Shtokman

Kharampur


In 2015 Russia`s natural gas reserves (ABC 1) amount to 50.2 tcm, which is one percent more than in 2014. The largest gas fields are located in Western Siberia oil and gas bearing province. The growth in gas reserves was provided by gas fields in the Yamal Peninsula (Bovanenkovo, Kharasaveyskoye, Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye), Eastern Siberia (Kovyktinskoye), Russian Far East (Chayandinskoye) and on the Arctic Shelf (Shtokman, Kruzenshternskoye). In European Russia the main gas reserves are concentrated in Astrakhan field and Orenburg field.

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation

Russia s largest natural gas fields: reserves2015, bcm

Lunskoye

AstrakhanOrenburg

YamburgYurkharovskoye

Medvezhye

Bovanenkovo

Urengoy

ZapolyarnoyeYuzhno-Russkoye

Beregovoye

Zapolyarnoye

Urengoy

Yamburg

Bovanenkovo

Yurkharovskoye

Yuzhno-Russkoye

Lunskoye

Orenburg

Beregovoye

Astrakhan

Medvezhye

117,5

90,6

75,3

22,8

38,4

25,1

16,4

16,9

10,8

11,7

12,2

97,9

85,5

62,8

42,8

39,0

25,0

16,6

16,3

11,2

11,1

10,4


About 80 % of Russia`s natural gas production is carried out in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region, Yamalo-Nenets AO. In 2014, three gas fields — Zapolyarnoye, Urengoy, Yamburg — accounted for more than 40 % of country`s gas production.

In 2012, gas production was started at the Bovanenkovo field (Yamal Peninsula), and it accounted 42.8 bcm in 2014. It is expected that to 2020 Bovanenkovo will be the largest gas producing field in Russia. Positive production dynamics also featured on Yurkharovskoye field and Beregovoye field.

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation

Major producing gas fields in Russia2013-2014, bcm

2013 2014

production domestic consumption export

669 201

470

194

460

211

457

200

444

653 668633187

458

640

In 2015, Russia`s natural gas and associated petroleum gas production amounted to 633.4 bcm, which is 0.9 % less than in 2014. The decrease was caused by significant reduction of natural gas consumption in Russia. In 2010-2015, the gas supply to the domestic market decreased by 24.8 bcm, or by 5.3 %.

In 2015, Russia`s natural gas exports increased by 7.1 % year on year to 200 bcm. Natural gas imports of the major importers of Russian gas remained relatively stable. A significant decrease was recorded in supplies to the Ukraine.

Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption and exports2011-2015, bcm

501 33 28 20 11 41

Yamalo-Nenets Khanty-Mansi Sakhalin Orenburg Krasnoyarsk Others

In 2015, 79.2 % of natural gas production in Russia was provided by Yamalo-Nenets AO, which is 1.1 pp lower than in 2014. In 2010-2014, YNAO share in Russia`s gas production was 80-83 %. In 2015 to 2014 gas production significantly increased in Krasnoyarsk region and Sakha. The largest drop was observed in YNAO (–2 %, or –11.6 bcm).

Source: Rosstat

Russia’s natural gas production by region2015, bcm


51,6

17

7,912,5 9,5

66,0

17,0 18,812,2

1,7

23,6

68,8

42,3

52,0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

Novatek Rosneft Lukoil Gazprom Neft Surgutneftegaz Arktikgaz Others

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, CDU TEK

Independent gas producers in Russia

Gazprom

Gazprom

Others

Others

432

208

406

229

35,9

Production, 2012-2015, bcm

64,167,5

32,5


Russia`s largest natural gas producer is Gazprom, which provided 64.1 % of country`s gas production in 2015, and 67.5 % in 2014. There is a tendency for an increase in the share of independent gas producers in Russia: from 16 % in 2007 to 36 % in 2015.

Independent gas producers increased production volumes. Leaders are Rosneft and Arktikgaz.

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Russia’s natural gas production by company2014-2015, bcm

2014-2015, %

2014

2014

2015

2015

Electricity production

Industry

Residential

Gas transportation

Others

261,958,9

35,8

66,0119,6

542

29,0 33,7 33,927,628,8

63,2 64,4 65,1 65,765,4

200

400

600

800

US EU Russia Iran China Japan Canada


In 2014, the production of electricity and heat energy provided 48.3 % of Russia`s natural gas consumption, which is 3.5 pp less than in 2013. Gas consumption decreased by 6.4 % in these two sectors, by 2,2 % in industry and increased by 0.1 % in residential sector. In 2015, investments for Russian regions gasification decreased by 4 %,

and Russia’s gasification level increased by 0.3 pp compared with 2014 and reached 65.7 %. The main reason is the increase in gas debts.

Over the last decade, the demand for gas in Russia ncreased at a slower rate in comparison with the global one. In the USA, the increase of consumption of shale gas has squeezed the coal out of the domestic market into the global one, which has led to the shrinking shares of other gas suppliers elsewhere. In 2015, overall demand for gas in the European Union exceeded Russia’s domestic gas consumption.

Source: BP

Source: Rosstat



Russia s natural gas consumption by sector Investment for Russian regions gasification

Russia’s gasification level

Natural gas consumption in the top natural gas consuming countries

2014, mtce

2011–2015, bln rubles

2011–2015, %

2005-2015, bcm

2015201420132012201120102009

13,414,4 14,8 14,5 14,4 14,5

6,6

0,45

World

Russia 0,34

21,3 n/a

2008

0,33

25,6

2009

0,35

30,4

2010

0,37

35,0

2011

0,39

36,9

2012 2015

0,41

n/a

2014

0,40

39,3

2013

70%79%

25%18%

2%1%

2%1%

1%1%

Japan Republicof Korea

ChinaTaiwan Others

100

300

500

700

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

Europe (Russian gas) Japan US (Henry Hub)

In 2015, the gas price in the major markets fell by 30-40 % compared to the previous year. The causes for the falling gas prices were decreasing oil prices, warm winters in the USA and Europe and fierce competition inside the industry — with other gas producers, as well as competition with producers of other energy resources, such as coal and renewable ones.


Russia`s LNG production and exports is carried out on single plant on Sakhalin Island, with a capacity of 9.6 mtpa. LNG is exported by sea to the Asia-Pacific countries, mainly to Japan.

There are LNG plants projects in Russia. The plant on the Yamal Peninsula is under construction, with an installed capacity of 16.5 mtpa, start at 2017-2018. It is also planned to implement projects in Vladivostok and the Baltic Sea (Gazprom) and Sakhalin Island (Rosneft).

In 2015, Russia’s share in the global LNG market was 4 %.

Russia`s CNG consumption is 450 mcm, or about one percent of the world total. The natural gas consumption in transport is a priority of Russia`s gas industry development. State subsidies for regions are aimed to stimulate the growth of CNG consumption. Gazprom plays the main role in development of the Russian NGV market. Other participants are Rosneft and Novatek.

Source: IMFSource: Sakhalin Energy


Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, IEA

LNG production and exports in Russia CNG consumption in road transport

Share of Russia s LNG exports by destination

The world prices of natural gas

2009-2015, bcm 2008-2015, bcm

2014-2015, %

2005-2015, $/1000 cubic meters

2013 20152014

42,7

27,0

18,8

23,8

7,8

10,1

9,29,7

40,0

Germany

Turkey

Belarus

Italy

Ukraine

Japan11,2 United Kingdom

KazakhstanFrance

Others

0

10

20

30

40

50


In recent years, Russia`s gas exports by regions has not changed significantly: European countries were the main customers. In 2009, Russia started to export LNG to Asia-Pacific, mainly to Japan. In 2015, LNG exports was about 7 % of total Russian gas exports.

Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia, Sakhalin Energy

Russia s natural gas exports by destination2013-2015, bcm

COALAmid worsening export conditions coal production in Russia was supported by a slight growth of domestic demand

237,3

157,0

114,5

76,4

60,6

40,5

33,9

26,6%

17,6%

12,8%

8,6%

6,8%

4,5%

3,8%

US

Russia

China

Australia

India

Germany

Ukraine

1000

2000

3000

4000

China US India Australia Indonesia Russia South Africa

1

2

3

4

5

2014201320122011201020092008200720062005

Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 42

Russia holds the second place in coal reserves in the world (after US). It possesses around 18 % of world reserves.

Source: IEA

Source: BP

Source: IEA

Countries with largest coal reserves

Top coal producing countries

Russia’s share in the world coal production 2015, bln t

2005-2014, mln t

2005-2014, %

In 2014 for the first time since the beginning of the century world production of coal decreased (by less than 1 %). Considerable reduction of coal production took place in China. China is optimising its coal industry which leads to

large-scale closure of coal mines. India actively expanded coal production with the focus on domestic market (energy poverty reduction) and Australia with the focus on external market (expansion of market share).

Russia maintained its 6th rank among top coal producing counties with a share of 4,5% of world total.

Kansk-Achinsk Basin

Minusinsk Basin

Donets Basin

Pechora Basin

South Yakutia Basin

Irkutsk Basin

Kuznetsk Basin

79,3

53,4

7,6

7,2

6,5

5,0

4,5

31,5

40,7%

27,4%

3,9%

3,7%

3,3%

2,6%

2,3%

16,2%

Kansk-Achinsk Basin

Kuznetsk Basin

Irkutsk Basin

Pechora Basin

Donets Basin

South Yakutia Basin

Minusinsk Basin

Оther

50

100

150

200

250

OtherDonetsBasin

PechoraBasin

Kansk-AchinskBasin

KuznetskBasin


There are 22 coal basins and 129 coal deposits in Russia. The geographic distribution of coal reserves is enequal. Over two thirds of proven reserves are concentrated within two basins: Kansk-Achinsk basin in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Kemerovo Oblast (brown coal) and Kuznetsk basin in Kemerovo Oblast (hard coal). In 2014 explored coal reserves in Russia increased by 0,5 %.

In 2015 coal production in Russia reached 373 mln t, which is 4 % higher than in 2014. 72 % of coal was produced at open-pit mines (in the last few years this share was quite stable).

The rise of coal production was observed in all largest basins (Kuznetsk basin (+2 %), Kansk-Achinsk basin (+6 %), Pechora basin (+11 %)) with the exception of Donets basin (–11 %%). Kuznetsk coal basin remains the center of Russian coal production (58 % of total).

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation

Explored coal reserves in Russia by main basin

Coal production in Russia by main basin

01.01.2015, bln t 2010-2015, mln t

83,683,983,884,584,583,5

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

9,99,69,99,49,5

10,8

4,24,03,84,03,73,9

2,32,52,52,1

2,31,8

OtherFar EastSiberia North West

50

100

150

200

250

300

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

Coking coal production Upgrading of coking coal Steam coal production* Upgrading of steam coal*


Coal production in Russia in concentrated in Siberian Federal District (84 % of the total). The largest coal producing federal subjects of the Russian Federation are situated there: Kemerovo Oblast (58 % of the total),

Krasnoyarsk Krai (11 %) and Zabaykalsky Krai (5 %). In the Far East coal production is notable in Sakha (Yakutia) Republic (4 % of the total) and in the North-West in Komi Republic (4 %).

Russia produces predominantly hard coal (over 80 % of the total in 2015). A share of coking coal in total production made up 23 %.

Almost all coking coal in Russia is upgraded, upgrading level of steam coal is only 28 %. Still in 2015 the latter grew (+5,9 mln t) while the former fell slightly (–0,3 mln t). Total volume of coal processing in Russia (including mechanical sorting) reached 178,3 mln t (+3 %).

Coal production in Russia by region

Coal production and upgrading (at plants) in Russia by type

2010-2015, %

2005-2015, mln t


Source: Ugol Magazine

* with import

20

40

60

80

100

JSC «SUEK» JSC «Coal Company «Kuzbassrazrezugol»

JSC Holding Company «SDS-Ugol»

JSC «Mechel Mining» «Evraz» JSC «Russian Coal» JSC «VorkutaUgol» Company «Vostsibugol» LLC (En+ Group)

Sibuglemet Holding LLC JSC «Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Company»

97,898,9

44,544,5

30,029,723,223,2 20,621,8

14,413,6 13,211,4 13,012,1 10,910,8 11,010,6

Hard coal Brown coal

30

60

90

120

150

55,966,3

2,0 3,7


Investment in Russian coal industry goes predominantly to hard coal (up to 95 % of the total). In 2015 it decreased again — to 70,1 bln rubles. From 2012 to 2015 investment to coal industry fell by almost 45 %. Financial restrictions continued to constrain realization of investment programs of Russian companies. Still the decline rate slowed to 6 %.

Russian coal industry is dominated by large coal mining and iron and steel holding companies.Top-10 companies contributed to around 58 % of total industry production. Almost all of them managed to increase production in 2015 with the exception of industry leaders. Largest producer of thermal coal JSC «SUEK» and largest producer of metallurgical coal «Evraz» decreased production slightly.

Russian investment in coal industry

Largest coal producers in Russia

2010-2015, bln rubles

2014-2015, mln t

Source: Federal State Statistics Service

Source: Ugol Magazine

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

China India US Germany Russia Japan South Africa

1

2

3

4

5

2014201320122011201020092008200720062005


Coal remains the second largest energy source in the world (after oil). Its share in total primary energy consumption amounts to 30 %. In 2014 consumption of coal in the world fell (by approximately 1 %) breaking upward trend since 2000. It was the result of lower demand for steam coal alongside with higher demand for coking coal (but the share of the latter in total coal consumption was only 13 %).

China (49 % of coal consumption in the world) made the largest contribution to negative

demand dynamics. Coal demand contraction in China was influenced by several factors: economic slowdown, structural transformation, lowering energy intensity of GDP, energy balance diversification and climate policy developments. With active spread of coal generation India in 2014 surpassed US and became the second largest coal consumer in the world. Coal prospects in US are constrained by shale revolution and strengthening of climate policy.

Source: IEA

Top coal consuming countries Russia’s share in the world coal consumption 2005-2014, mln t

2005-2014, %

Source: IEA

Russia continued to rank 5th among top coal consuming countries with a share of 2,5 % of world total.

50

15

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015

11,6

114,2

36,0

23,4

Imports share in consumption

Supplies to population

23,9 Other*

Power plants

Coking plants

12

Steam coal Coking coal

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

20152014201320122011201020092008200820062005


In 2015 coal consumption in Russia demonstrated a slight growth — up to 197,5 mln t (+1,3 % as compared with 2014). Russian companies increased coal supplies to domestic market up to 174,6 mln t (+3 %) so that it accounted for 54 % of total supplies of Russian coal. Russian coal imports (mainly from Kazakhstan — 96 %) fell by 9 %. Imports contribution to coal consumption continued to decrease as well. In 2015 it didn’t exceed 12 %. Electricity power industry is the largest consumer of coal in Russia. It supported consumption growth: power stations expanded purchases of coal by 7 %. Among other large consumers are coking plants (–9 % of demand) and population (demand unchanged).

In 2015 average domestic coal prices in Russia grew (on the background of ruble depreciation to US dollar). Steam coal prices increased by 4 % and coking coal prices — by 31 %.

Source: CDU TEK

Source: Federal State Statistics Service

* Iron and Steel Industry, Cement Industry, Russian Railways, etc.

Coal consumption in Russia Average domestic coal prices in Russia2005-2015, mln t (supply to domestic market and imports)

2005-2015, rubles/t

37,9

21,7

16,2

9,09,8

10,2

4,7

16,4

Other

South Korea

Japan

Ukraine

17,2 UK

TurkeyNetherlands

Poland

6,6 Taiwan 6,5 Germany

China

2014 2015

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Structure of Russia’s coal exports by destination2014-2015, mln t, total (hard coal (98 % of the total) and brown coal (2 %))

Structure of Russian coal exports was significantly affected by the contraction of purchases from China. In 2014 China used to be the principal destination. In 2015 export of coal from Russia to China fell by almost 40 %. UK, the second principal destination (in terms of volume) in 2014, cut purchases as well (–29 %). Is was partially compensated by increased

supplies to South Korea (+26 %) which made this country the principal destination of Russian coal exports in 2015. Besides Russia increased coal exports to Japan (+8 %) and Netherlands (+33 %).

Russian export of coal is dominated by steam coal (87 % of the total).

Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia

0

100

200

300

400

500

CanadaSouth AfricaColombiaUSRussiaAustraliaIndonesia

Asian marker priceUS Central Appalachian coal spot price index Northwest Europe marker price

Japan coking coal import CIF priceJapan steam coal import CIF price

50

100

150

200

250

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

7

9

11

13

15

2014201320122011201020092008200720062005


In 2014 international coal trade continued to grow though with a slower pace (less than 1 %). Indonesia maintained its position as the largest exporter of coal in the world (in terms of physical tonnes) with a share of 30 %. At the same time in terms of energy content it was overtaken by Australia.

The drop of coal prices observed from 2011 continued in 2015. Excess supply and China’s weakening demand put downward pressure on coal prices in the world. For example, coal prices in Japan (either for coking or for steam coal) lost 18 % in 2015. Regional coal prices almost converged in 2014 so that «Asian premium» diminished. In 2015 marker coal prices in Asia, Europe and Northern America fell correspondingly by 19 %, 25 % and 22 %.

Russia held the 3rd position among top coal exporting countries with a share of 11 % of world total.

Source: IEASource: IEA

Source: BP

Top coal exporting countries

World coal prices

Russia’s share in the world coal exports2005-2014, mln t

2005-2015, $/t

2005-2014, %

PETROCHEMICALSIn 2015 there was increase in production and decline in imports of basic polymers in Russia

19,1

LPG production Naphta production Ethane production

20152014201320122011

0,712,1

20,0

0,813,1

22,6

0,713,9

26,0

0,816,0

27,3

0,711,2

201520142013201220112010

1,4 1,41,5 1,5

1,31,4

Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 52

Production and refining of petrochemical feedstocks in Russia grew in 2015, especially naphta.

After previous year decrease synthetic rubber production grew 9 % in 2015, although not achieving 2013 level. Such stagnation is caused by international rubber market fierce competition and decline in Russian automobile industry.


Source: Rosstat

Production of petrochemical feedstocks in Russia

Synthetic rubber production in Russia

Petrochemical feedstocks refining

2011-2015, mln t

2010-2015, mln t

2011-2015, mln t

6

8

10

12

20152014201320122011

40

60

80

100

2015201420132012

Synthetic rubber Polymers of styrenePolymers of ethylene PolypropylenePolymers of vinyl chloride or halogenated olefins

2013201220112010

1

2

3

5

4

7

8

2014 2015

6

2,7

1,8

0,5

0,8

Plastics in primary forms, other

Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated olefins

1,3 Polymers of propylene and other olefins

Polymers of ethylene

Polymers of styrene

Plastics in primary forms production in Russia demonstrated a 13% growth in 2015. The highest increase (23 %) appeared in polypropylene production (also showed significant export growth). This is due to the positive impact of ruble devaluation and a few big projects implemented in the industry lately.

Source: Rosstat

Source: Rosstat

Plastics production in primary forms in Russia2010-2015, mln t

Prices of petrochemical products grew 15-30% in 2015, which is also due to export reorientation and domestic supply decrease.

Average annual producers prices of some petrochemical products2012-2015, thousand rubles/t


201520142013201220112010

97

123 125138

169

54

2010200920082007

50

100

150

200

2011 2012 2013 2014

87,3

25,4

20,0

21,9


Synthetic rubber

Polymers of styrene

Polymers of vinyl chloride or halogenated olefins


International trade of polymers of ethylene growth continued in 2014 — 4 % to 87 bln USD, while other main traded petrochemical products showed decline or stagnation.

In 2015 investment in Russian petrochemical industry increased by 22 % as compared with 2014 and totaled 169 bln rubles.


Source: UNCTAD

International trade volumes of some petrochemical products

Russian investments in petrochemical industry

2007-2014, bln USD 2010-2015, bln rubles

production

Polymers of styrene Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated olefins

Polymers of propylene and other olefins

Synthetic rubber

exportimport

estimated consumption

−6%

0%

−33%−19%

production

export

import


–12%

19%

−48%

93%

production

export

import


3%

23%

−10%

107%

production

export

import


2%

9%

−3%

13%

2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

500

1000

1500

2000

2500


production

export

import


3%

12%

−21%

−4%

2014 2015


In Russian petrochemical industry a trend of import substitution is evolving. In 2015 Russia continued to reduce imports of large-tonnage polymers and to raise their exports (with the exeption of

polyethylene and polystyrene). Nevertheless import dependance for certain items is still considerable. Synthetic Rubber production stays most export-oriented.

Source: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Federal Customs Service of Russia

Change in polymers production and consumption in Russia2014-2015, kt and %

ELECTRICIT YTotal electricity consumption in Russia decreased by 0.4% in 2015

50

100

150

200

300

250

27

251

UES of Russia, nuclear energy

Russia, total

48 UES of Russia, hydropower

160 UES of Russia, fuel energy

201020092008 2011 2012 2013 20152014

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014

4,1

0,5

2,9

2,9

3,3

1,0

2,6

2,7

1,8

2,9

5,0

1,2 1,3

2

4

6

8

except CDA CDA

Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 58

Net additional capacity in the UES of Russia amounted to 2.9 GW in 2015 (growth of 1 % to 2014), from 2008 to 2015-24.7 GW (11.7 %). Compared to previous years, the rate of capacity growth is slowed down.

The installed capacity of power plants of UES of Russia in 2015 grew mainly due to fuel power by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (62 % of all entries), the rest of the growth was provided by nuclearpower (0,9 GW) other fuel power, hydropower and RES

Installed capacity in Russia

Additional power capacity in UES of Russia in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (CDA)

2008-2015, GW

2008-2015, GW

Source: SO-UPS

Source: Rosstat, SO-UPS

200

400

600

800

1 000

346

186

73

382

266

102

466

298

102

406

203

69

406

282

144

2010 2011 2012 2013 2015

525

264

75

2014

Generation, transmission and distribution of electricity

Generation

Transmission

Distribution and trade

–228

–124

–95

–24

–25,2

–23

–32

–12

2015-2014,bln rubels

2015/2014, %


Noticeably decrease in investment in electricity: in addition to the economic crisis, the decline in investment can be explained by a decrease of the intensity of CDA program. Also the excess supply of capacity impacted on dynamics of investments.

Investments in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Russia**

Change in investments in electricity in fixed capital of Russia

2010-2015, bln rubles

2015 in comparison to 2014*

Source: Rosstat

Source: Rosstat

* 2010-2013 — data does not include Crimean FD, 2014-2015 — included Crimean FD

** Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable investments

* Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable

distribution and trade

transmission

generation

1

2

4

5

Industry Agriculture Services Transport Households

3

6 % 1,2 11 % 1,4 13 % 1,3 2 % 1,0 7 % 2,3

1,6

2,3

2015/2014, % 2015/2010, ratio

4,1

2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2,3

4,0

consumers price index price for industry price for households

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014

price ratio (industry/households), ratio

0,8

0,9

1,1

1,0

1,2

2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152005


Average electricity price by consumers (nominal prices)

Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry

2010-2015, rubles/kWh

2004-2015, year by year, %

Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry

Source: Rosstat

Source: Rosstat

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Russia Center North West South North Caucasus Volga Ural Siberia Far East Crimea

-10

-5

0

5

10

UES of Russia,total

Volga Ural North-West South Siberia EastCentral


Electricity consumption growth in the UES of Russia

Industrial Production Index in Russia and federal districs

2008-2015, year by year, %

2008-2015, year by year, %

Total electricity consumption in Russia in 2015 has decreased. The main reasons of that are economic crisis and electricity consumption decline in industrial regions

Source: SO-UPS

Source: Rosstat

Prepared by the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation

www.ac.gov.ru

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