Russian Foreign PolicyRussian Foreign PolicyP.Sc. 243P.Sc. 243

““Russians idolize the past, Russians idolize the past,

hate the present and hate the present and

fear the future.”fear the future.” Anton ChekhovAnton Chekhov

Student ResponsibilitiesStudent Responsibilities

Clickers quizzes Clickers quizzes Research Assignment Research Assignment Final Exam Final Exam Diligent (100%) reading, preparation, Diligent (100%) reading, preparation,

attendance, participationattendance, participation

Pre-Soviet Foreign PolicyPre-Soviet Foreign Policy

Concert of EuropeConcert of Europe Traditional enemies: north/southTraditional enemies: north/south Key to military: “technology”Key to military: “technology” Construction of EMPIREConstruction of EMPIRE War with JapanWar with Japan World War IWorld War I

Revolution: Revolution: Foreign Policy DimensionsForeign Policy Dimensions

Mil. leadership embarrassedMil. leadership embarrassed Marxist ideology: defined enemyMarxist ideology: defined enemy Ideology rejected states/nationsIdeology rejected states/nations ““Workers of the World Unite”Workers of the World Unite” Civil War -- Whites/interventionsCivil War -- Whites/interventions Amorphous union: Amorphous union: InternationaleInternationale USSR (CCCP)USSR (CCCP)

Post-Lenin Post-Lenin

Stalin / Trotsky Stalin / Trotsky World Depression / IsolationWorld Depression / Isolation Inward turning Central PlanningInward turning Central Planning Purges/all challengers (military) Purges/all challengers (military) '' ““Socialism in One Country”Socialism in One Country” Pact with Germany (secret) Pact with Germany (secret)

Baltics, PolandBaltics, Poland

World War IIWorld War II

Katyn ForestKatyn Forest 1941 Nazis Attack1941 Nazis Attack

north / south real agendanorth / south real agenda near collapse, heroism, desperation near collapse, heroism, desperation Alliance with West – promises Alliance with West – promises '' Stalingrad Stalingrad

Teheran, Yalta, PotsdamTeheran, Yalta, Potsdam

Working toward different objectives Working toward different objectives (Brits, US, Soviets)(Brits, US, Soviets)

““Spheres of Influence” bargainSpheres of Influence” bargain Linchpin: “Democracy”Linchpin: “Democracy” Truman & THE BOMBTruman & THE BOMB ““Uncle Joe: the schemer”Uncle Joe: the schemer” Iron CurtainIron Curtain

Post-WW IIPost-WW II

UNO Advantage: USSR ...UNO Advantage: USSR ... Pol/Econ buffer -- client statesPol/Econ buffer -- client states Play ‘hard ball’ in Berlin ‘48Play ‘hard ball’ in Berlin ‘48 Test A-Bomb ‘49Test A-Bomb ‘49 China becomes Communist ‘49China becomes Communist ‘49 Ideological antipathy = Cold WarIdeological antipathy = Cold War Korean conflict -- gets hot ‘51Korean conflict -- gets hot ‘51

Stalin’s Foreign PolicyStalin’s Foreign Policy

Abandons ideologyAbandons ideology

self-serving stateself-serving state Paranoid behavior (elites)Paranoid behavior (elites) Tightens control EE / other CPsTightens control EE / other CPs Disparages ChineseDisparages Chinese Leaves no direction at death ‘53Leaves no direction at death ‘53

Krushchev’s Secret SpeechKrushchev’s Secret Speech

Peaceful co-existencePeaceful co-existence ““THAW”THAW” denounces Stalin -- “reformer”denounces Stalin -- “reformer” visits US / Nixon to Moscowvisits US / Nixon to Moscow Sputnik ‘57Sputnik ‘57 Castro to power in Cuba ‘59Castro to power in Cuba ‘59 Summit with Pres. KennedySummit with Pres. Kennedy

Kennedy - KhrushchevKennedy - Khrushchev

Missiles in TurkeyMissiles in Turkey U-2 Shoot-downU-2 Shoot-down Rookies in the White House?Rookies in the White House? Bay of PigsBay of Pigs Vienna Summit & “truth”Vienna Summit & “truth” Khrushchev warns: will make you feel Khrushchev warns: will make you feel

as vulnerable as we feelas vulnerable as we feel

Cuban Missile CrisisCuban Missile Crisis

High dramaHigh drama Communication problemCommunication problem Psychology – zero-sum thinkingPsychology – zero-sum thinking Domestic & Foreign “politics”Domestic & Foreign “politics” What qualities to those that prevail ?What qualities to those that prevail ?

VietnamVietnam

Venue changeVenue change Domestic politics gets ugly …Domestic politics gets ugly … Prague Spring; reform pressures ‘68Prague Spring; reform pressures ‘68 Soviet leadership: Soviet leadership: ''

Brezhnev Kosygin (LBJ)Brezhnev Kosygin (LBJ) Real complications: Ho, geog, Real complications: Ho, geog,

RVN, Chinese & French beforeRVN, Chinese & French before

Seventies ...Seventies ...

Nixon & KissingerNixon & Kissinger China rapprochementChina rapprochement Carter: “human rights”Carter: “human rights” Mutual nuclear buildupMutual nuclear buildup Afghanistan ’78, ‘79Afghanistan ’78, ‘79 Managing East Europe !!Managing East Europe !!

Brezhnev Doctrine & rulesBrezhnev Doctrine & rules

Doctrine of Limited SovereigntyDoctrine of Limited Sovereignty

No CLEAR rulesNo CLEAR rules bilateral relationships; hubbilateral relationships; hub no export of reform; no patternsno export of reform; no patterns no domestic no domestic && foreign divergence foreign divergence no double exposureno double exposure

Early Eighties ...Early Eighties ...

Kosygin dead; Brezhnev dyingKosygin dead; Brezhnev dying Andropov / Chernenko leadershipAndropov / Chernenko leadership Buildup on cruise-controlBuildup on cruise-control Third world adventures (timid)Third world adventures (timid)

“ “professional thief” professional thief” '' Where have all the believers gone? Where have all the believers gone?

StateState proud! proud! More challenge to manage EEMore challenge to manage EE

Thematic shifts ...Thematic shifts ...

Concept:Concept: USSR / “Internationale” USSR / “Internationale” Socialism in One CountrySocialism in One Country Builders of Socialism &Builders of Socialism &

Peaceful Co-existence Peaceful Co-existence AmongAmong

Countries with Differing Social Countries with Differing Social

SystemsSystems Doctrine of Limited SovereigntyDoctrine of Limited Sovereignty

GorbachevGorbachev

GlasnostGlasnost Perestroika -- New Union Treaty Perestroika -- New Union Treaty NEW THINKINGNEW THINKING Perceived problems:Perceived problems:

treated like pariahtreated like pariah

non-competitivenon-competitive

force = glue holding allianceforce = glue holding alliance

NEW THINKINGNEW THINKING

Soften toneSoften tone Create co-operationCreate co-operation arms agreementsarms agreements seek aidseek aid make state more “typical”make state more “typical” become world “citizen”become world “citizen” NO USE OF FORCENO USE OF FORCE

Questions from SFP …Questions from SFP …

How ideologically driven was SFP?How ideologically driven was SFP? Did the structure of the Soviet system Did the structure of the Soviet system

influence SFP?influence SFP? How “aggressive” was SFP?How “aggressive” was SFP? How central was the military to SFP?How central was the military to SFP? When was force challenged as a basis for When was force challenged as a basis for

SFP?SFP? What was the LEGACY of SFP?What was the LEGACY of SFP? ? ?

Foreign Policy Structures: Foreign Policy Structures: SovietSoviet

CC Dept. of International AffairsCC Dept. of International Affairs Ministry of Foreign AffairsMinistry of Foreign Affairs KGBKGB Ministry of DefenseMinistry of Defense ““Friendship” OrganizationsFriendship” Organizations Ministry of Foreign TradeMinistry of Foreign Trade

POLITBURO Council of MinistersPOLITBURO Council of Ministers

Foreign Policy Structures: Foreign Policy Structures: RussianRussian

Duma CommitteesDuma Committees SVRSVR Security CouncilSecurity Council Foreign MinistryForeign Ministry Defense MinistryDefense Ministry Interdepartmental Committee on Interdepartmental Committee on

Foreign PolicyForeign Policy ++

Foreign Policy Structures: Foreign Policy Structures: RussianRussian

PRESIDENTPRESIDENTedicts in lieu failed/slow processedicts in lieu failed/slow processlarge scale int’l negotiationslarge scale int’l negotiationscontrol of Security Council membcontrol of Security Council membauthoritarian personalityauthoritarian personality Regionalization / challengeRegionalization / challenge

Branches of Power 

Official Government StructureOfficial Government Structure

Russian Foreign Policy Russian Foreign Policy PLAYERSPLAYERS

Dimitry Dimitry MedvedevMedvedev, President, President Vladimir Vladimir PutinPutin, Prime Minister, Prime Minister Sergei Sergei LavrovLavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikolai Nikolai PatrushevPatrushev, Security Council, Security Council Anatoly Anatoly SerdyukovSerdyukov, Minister of Defense, Minister of Defense Director of SVR Director of SVR Foreign Intelligence AgencyForeign Intelligence Agency

Director, GRU Director, GRU Military Intelligence AgencyMilitary Intelligence Agency Director of FSB Director of FSB Federal Security ServicesFederal Security Services

Minister Econ. Dev. & Trade Minister Econ. Dev. & Trade

CapabilitiesCapabilities

MilitaryMilitary EconomicEconomic CommercialCommercial DiplomaticDiplomatic Cultural & ScientificCultural & Scientific ““Mass”Mass”

Some domestic factorsSome domestic factors

EthnographicEthnographic Asians, labor, parochialismAsians, labor, parochialism EconomicEconomic Productivity, resources, currencyProductivity, resources, currency PoliticalPolitical Support, democ, mil, homeostasis, leadersSupport, democ, mil, homeostasis, leaders AttitudinalAttitudinal Non-zero sum, aversion to war, Non-zero sum, aversion to war, perceived US non-commitmentperceived US non-commitment

Politics & Economics ‘90’sPolitics & Economics ‘90’s

‘‘92-’93 politics by default …92-’93 politics by default … the challenge … duma vs. pres.the challenge … duma vs. pres. the new “constitution”the new “constitution” foreign dilemma: support Yeltsin?foreign dilemma: support Yeltsin? ChechnyaChechnya Russia in Bosnia & KosovoRussia in Bosnia & Kosovo Election ‘95-’96: support Yeltsin?Election ‘95-’96: support Yeltsin? Massive deterioration ... +Massive deterioration ... +

Politics & Economics ‘90’sPolitics & Economics ‘90’s

August ‘98 Collapse!August ‘98 Collapse! Policy drift …Policy drift … Dec. ‘99Dec. ‘99 Jan. ‘00 factors Jan. ‘00 factors

ill indictment maneuverill indictment maneuver March ‘00 PUTINMarch ‘00 PUTIN

Models Models (Cold War remnants(Cold War remnants) )

Détente vs. Linkage Détente vs. Linkage Zero / Non-zero sum thinkingZero / Non-zero sum thinking Strategic IndigestibilityStrategic Indigestibility Permanent Pre-hostilitiesPermanent Pre-hostilities Strategic Ambiguous EquivalenceStrategic Ambiguous Equivalence ParityParity

? For 21? For 21stst Century ? Century ?

Yeltsin/Kozyrev foreign policyYeltsin/Kozyrev foreign policy

Prosperity, Stability, IndependenceProsperity, Stability, Independence Enhance predictability by following Enhance predictability by following

international rulesinternational rules Dismantle confrontational structuresDismantle confrontational structures External relations designed to External relations designed to

support domestic developmentsupport domestic development ““Reactive foreign policy”Reactive foreign policy”

KozyrevKozyrev

““Russia sees no state as hostile to it Russia sees no state as hostile to it and will not use force for any and will not use force for any purpose other than defense.”purpose other than defense.”

Russian security (operationalized)Russian security (operationalized) a function of economics, ecology, a function of economics, ecology,

demography, energy and health.demography, energy and health. Specifics: Specifics: eliminate tactical nucseliminate tactical nucs support global defense system (GPALS/not SDI)support global defense system (GPALS/not SDI) create stable arms control mechanismscreate stable arms control mechanisms

Kozyrev premises …Kozyrev premises …

MultilateralismMultilateralism Treaty with Japan (peace)Treaty with Japan (peace) Cooperation with moderate regimes Cooperation with moderate regimes

in Middle Eastin Middle East Link with most prosperous LA & Link with most prosperous LA &

African African (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Angola, (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Angola, Nigeria & S. Africa)Nigeria & S. Africa)

Gravitate toward democratic statesGravitate toward democratic states Seeing them as friends Seeing them as friends

Persistent Russian f.p. debatePersistent Russian f.p. debate

Atlanticists – Atlanticists – tie future & fortunes to WESTtie future & fortunes to WEST Eurasianists – variant AEurasianists – variant A tie future to “soviet” spheretie future to “soviet” sphere East Europe & former republicsEast Europe & former republics -- variant B-- variant B tie future to China & Islamic tie future to China & Islamic

worldworld

Strategic reflection: Strategic reflection: Yeltsin & KozyrevYeltsin & Kozyrev

Russia rejects superpower status because Russia rejects superpower status because it represents an it represents an

“ “effort to decide the world’s destiny”effort to decide the world’s destiny” Russia is a great power based on history, Russia is a great power based on history,

its place in the world and its material and its place in the world and its material and spiritual potentialspiritual potential

Russia can become strong by means other Russia can become strong by means other than militarythan military

““Living without an enemy in foreign policy Living without an enemy in foreign policy is difficult for Russians”is difficult for Russians”

Objectives: circa 2000Objectives: circa 2000

increase aidincrease aid underline independenceunderline independence undermine NATOundermine NATO attract investmentattract investment dominate regiondominate region create economic dependencies in create economic dependencies in Central EuropeCentral Europe ++

Objectives (cont.)Objectives (cont.)

achieve full G-8 statusachieve full G-8 status establish “convertible” rubleestablish “convertible” ruble achieve acceptance of “sphere of achieve acceptance of “sphere of

influence”influence” embrace requests for re-integrationembrace requests for re-integration boost exportsboost exports curb outflow of capitalcurb outflow of capital

Military CapabilitiesMilitary CapabilitiesConfiguration of ForcesConfiguration of Forces

Air Force, Air Defense, Army, Navy,Air Force, Air Defense, Army, Navy,

Strategic Missile Forces Strategic Missile Forces Generic Problems:Generic Problems:

financial, leadership, manpowerfinancial, leadership, manpower

force restructuring, materielforce restructuring, materiel Acute: Chechnya, Black Sea Fleet, Acute: Chechnya, Black Sea Fleet,

Nuclear weaponsNuclear weapons

Essential Military RealitiesEssential Military Realities

First Chechen war ’94 = failureFirst Chechen war ’94 = failure Yeltsin “reform” of militaryYeltsin “reform” of military

shoes, pay, one meal a dayshoes, pay, one meal a day reduce # generals to 1500 reduce # generals to 1500 (1/108)(1/108)

raise spending level to Britainraise spending level to Britain Multi-ethnic confusionMulti-ethnic confusion Pilots 10hrs training per yearPilots 10hrs training per year

No major warships at seaNo major warships at sea 20,000 nuclear weapons 20,000 nuclear weapons (? functional)(? functional)

Draft: 11% reporting Draft: 11% reporting (many seeking med treatment)(many seeking med treatment)

Weapons development thwartedWeapons development thwarted (occasional spasms of image-building)(occasional spasms of image-building)

new strategic missile, torpedo, slbmnew strategic missile, torpedo, slbm

ARMYARMY

Absence of specialized trainingAbsence of specialized training Limitations: terrain, night, urbanLimitations: terrain, night, urban Casualty prone tactics; tech sparseCasualty prone tactics; tech sparse Low moraleLow morale Pay problems; manpower (draft)Pay problems; manpower (draft) Soviet breakup reverberationsSoviet breakup reverberations Spetsnaz; kontraktniksSpetsnaz; kontraktniks

Air ForceAir Force

No jet long range bombersNo jet long range bombers Excellent air combat planesExcellent air combat planes Problems with training and budgetsProblems with training and budgets Rugged, unrefined approach – pilot Rugged, unrefined approach – pilot

focused not tech focusedfocused not tech focused Career long enlistments 25 yrsCareer long enlistments 25 yrs Defense focusedDefense focused Taran & Night Witches as examplesTaran & Night Witches as examples

AIR DEFENSEAIR DEFENSE

Surface to Air (SAM) missilesSurface to Air (SAM) missiles Long, Medium & Short rangeLong, Medium & Short range Airborne Warning & Control Systems Airborne Warning & Control Systems

(AWACS)(AWACS) ““Early” Warning Radar SystemsEarly” Warning Radar Systems Key problems: Key problems:

financial & tech supportfinancial & tech support

new boundaries!new boundaries!

NavyNavy

Soviet fleets: Soviet fleets: Baltic, Pacific, Black SeaBaltic, Pacific, Black Sea Break-up & crew integrityBreak-up & crew integrity Draconian cuts in maintenance & Draconian cuts in maintenance &

weapons development: Kurskweapons development: Kursk No rationale for operational global No rationale for operational global

navynavy Black Sea fleet; warm water portsBlack Sea fleet; warm water ports Odessa as key commercial port …Odessa as key commercial port …

STRATEGIC MISSILE STRATEGIC MISSILE FORCESFORCES

Created in 1950sCreated in 1950s ICBMs (SS19-24) some from ’60sICBMs (SS19-24) some from ’60s Launch on Warning: 9-15 min.Launch on Warning: 9-15 min. Strike any target in 30 min.Strike any target in 30 min. Based in silos, trains, trucksBased in silos, trains, trucks Topol M newest / SS-27 ?20Topol M newest / SS-27 ?20 Roughly 700 missilesRoughly 700 missiles

Nuclear ArsenalNuclear Arsenal

““raketchiki”raketchiki” Priority benefits; isolation, patriotismPriority benefits; isolation, patriotism Danger: early warning systemsDanger: early warning systems launch on warninglaunch on warning Security of facilitiesSecurity of facilities Personnel: biorhythms; testingPersonnel: biorhythms; testing Implications: key defense;Implications: key defense; regional capability?regional capability?

Generalizations about Generalizations about Russian military capability?Russian military capability?

Implications for us?Implications for us?

PUTIN 2000PUTIN 2000

Search for popularity: patriotismSearch for popularity: patriotism

order via stateorder via state

tame Chechnya tame Chechnya Igor Ivanov, Foreign MinisterIgor Ivanov, Foreign Minister Confront US Missile Defense Confront US Missile Defense Balk at support Balkans/Iraq policy Balk at support Balkans/Iraq policy

of US govof US gov

Putin Creates DIRECTION …Putin Creates DIRECTION …

Longevity …Longevity … Aura & commitment in foreign policyAura & commitment in foreign policy EnergizeEnergize

Key areas: Near Abroad, Key areas: Near Abroad,

*Strategic Policy,*Strategic Policy,

*Demographics,*Demographics,

NATONATO

ChechnyaChechnya

Dimensions Dimensions

Asymmetrical nuclear actorsAsymmetrical nuclear actors ““Human rights” Human rights” ChechnyaChechnya Politics & business Politics & business How connected?How connected? Crisis Management & Crisis Management & unilateralism unilateralism How independent?How independent?

Bush Approach Bush Approach Decidedly secondary role for Russia …Decidedly secondary role for Russia …

Strategic PolicyStrategic Policy

Ivanov’s New PoliciesIvanov’s New Policies ““New Foreign Policy Concept”New Foreign Policy Concept”

threats*threats*

transparency & predictabilitytransparency & predictability

restructuring … nucs?restructuring … nucs?

““everything turned out to be much everything turned out to be much more complicated”more complicated”

More rethinking …More rethinking …

Idealistic, pro –Western …Idealistic, pro –Western … National interests …National interests … Superpower mentality …Superpower mentality … ““Economical” & focused …Economical” & focused … Balance … E vs. WBalance … E vs. W Continuity …Continuity …

New International OrderNew International Order

End of COLD WAR … ? impactedEnd of COLD WAR … ? impacted NATO, UNNATO, UN Globalization w/ a Human FaceGlobalization w/ a Human Face Strategic StabilityStrategic Stability

Arms agreements …Arms agreements …

Foreign Relations … 2008Foreign Relations … 2008

Authoritarian texture to policy Authoritarian texture to policy Missiles & the militarization of spaceMissiles & the militarization of space Kosovo as model for breakawaysKosovo as model for breakaways US-Russian chill & culpabilityUS-Russian chill & culpability Ukraine / NATO issuesUkraine / NATO issues

Medvedev “Program”Medvedev “Program” Four I’s & Seven TasksFour I’s & Seven Tasks

Institutions, Infrastructure, Innovation, Institutions, Infrastructure, Innovation, InvestmentsInvestments

1. Overcome legal nihilism / reform courts1. Overcome legal nihilism / reform courts2. Lower administrative barriers2. Lower administrative barriers3. Lower tax burden3. Lower tax burden4. 4. Make ruble hard currencyMake ruble hard currency5. Modernize transportation & energy5. Modernize transportation & energy6. Create basis for innovation6. Create basis for innovation7. Develop program for social development 7. Develop program for social development

EconomyEconomy

Per Capita GDP $7700Per Capita GDP $7700 growth rate 6+%growth rate 6+% inflation rate 21%inflation rate 21% unemployment 11% ++unemployment 11% ++ Primary: oil, gas, coal, timber &Primary: oil, gas, coal, timber & Ag: grains, beets, beef, vegAg: grains, beets, beef, veg Manufact: mining, machines, textiles, Manufact: mining, machines, textiles,

med, transportation med, transportation

Exports / ImportsExports / Imports

ExportsExports: : to US, Germany, Ukraineto US, Germany, Ukraine primary & some secondaryprimary & some secondary $105B$105B ImportsImports: : from Germany, Belarus, Ukrainefrom Germany, Belarus, Ukraine secondary & some tertiarysecondary & some tertiary $45B$45B

Economics: TradeEconomics: Trade

Competitive products?Competitive products? Investor confidence?Investor confidence? Primary / Secondary / TertiaryPrimary / Secondary / Tertiary OIL engine for growthOIL engine for growth

engine for revenueengine for revenue

vehicle for statusvehicle for status Infrastructure & econ devel ?Infrastructure & econ devel ?

Economic Dimensions Economic Dimensions Debt & AidDebt & Aid

What kinds of AID are needed?What kinds of AID are needed? From whom?From whom? IMF & World BankIMF & World Bank EUEU G-7G-7 What kind of DEBT is “carried?What kind of DEBT is “carried? What is the debt “service?”What is the debt “service?”

DEBTDEBT

Russia has hard currency reserves: Russia has hard currency reserves: $30B$30B

Owes: from USSR days … $78BOwes: from USSR days … $78B

to US $3.8Bto US $3.8B

to Europe $65Bto Europe $65B

to Germany alone $42Bto Germany alone $42B

overall $150B (banks/govs)overall $150B (banks/govs)

DEBT (cont.)DEBT (cont.)

Debt service: $7B 2002Debt service: $7B 2002

$19B 2003$19B 2003 Current Russian budget: $40BCurrent Russian budget: $40B Roughly 40% of future budgetsRoughly 40% of future budgets Context: higher oil/gas revenuesContext: higher oil/gas revenues

weak ruble – high import pricesweak ruble – high import prices

– – more domestic prodmore domestic prod

Foreign Policy implicationsForeign Policy implications

2002 US proposed spending2002 US proposed spending $30B to safeguard R nucs$30B to safeguard R nucs 2003 Congress bill: 2003 Congress bill: Russian debt for nuc safetyRussian debt for nuc safety Domestic context: GDP 1/15 USDomestic context: GDP 1/15 US $720B annual GDP …$720B annual GDP …

household income up 10%household income up 10% … … most still live in povertymost still live in poverty

Near Abroad: Near Abroad: Ukraine & BelarusUkraine & Belarus

Russia-UkraineRussia-UkraineNATO NATO

Black Sea FleetBlack Sea FleetConversion & costsConversion & costsManufacturing DependencyManufacturing DependencyAgricultural productsAgricultural products

BelarusBelarusLukashenko / media / union?Lukashenko / media / union?

Challenges in CISChallenges in CIS

““Commonwealth of Independent States”Commonwealth of Independent States” Searching for clarity: “national interests”Searching for clarity: “national interests” Protect Russian people in successor statesProtect Russian people in successor states

Moldova, Central Asia, UkraineMoldova, Central Asia, Ukraine Need to deploy Russian forces?Need to deploy Russian forces? Georgia (army/no navy); Azerbaijan (1 plane air force);Georgia (army/no navy); Azerbaijan (1 plane air force);

Dneister Rep. (own army); Ossetia (1 tactical nuc)Dneister Rep. (own army); Ossetia (1 tactical nuc)

Borders, borders, borders …Borders, borders, borders …

ChechnyaChechnya

Ethnic dimension Ethnic dimension Ugly history – StalinUgly history – Stalin Unstable region / splinteredUnstable region / splintered ““domino” effect?domino” effect? Reveals vulnerability / conditionReveals vulnerability / condition Government conduct issuesGovernment conduct issues Order vs. peaceOrder vs. peace

Georgia / OssetiaGeorgia / Ossetia

Ossetia … a descriptionOssetia … a description Russian rationale for incursion Aug. ’08Russian rationale for incursion Aug. ’08 Focus: Policy in Near AbroadFocus: Policy in Near Abroad Principle: Regional hegemonyPrinciple: Regional hegemony Costs …Costs … Who made the decision? Who made the decision?

Russian leadershipRussian leadership Control of the militaryControl of the military Result: Ossetia & AbkaziaResult: Ossetia & Abkazia

Western facing: Near AbroadWestern facing: Near Abroad

?post-breakup nuclear issues?post-breakup nuclear issues ?conventional military?conventional military ?commerce & trade?commerce & trade ?ethnic relations?ethnic relations ?psychological carryover?psychological carryover ?regional anxiety / Georgia ‘08?regional anxiety / Georgia ‘08

Southern facing: Near AbroadSouthern facing: Near Abroad

General economic relations –General economic relations –

trade, aid, dependencytrade, aid, dependency

Caspian conundrum …Caspian conundrum …

War on TerrorismWar on Terrorism

Instability & opportunity ?Instability & opportunity ?

Ethnic realities …Ethnic realities …

Asia: ChinaAsia: China

Sino-Russian alternativeSino-Russian alternative How “attractive” is the partner?How “attractive” is the partner? Russia-China-IndiaRussia-China-India Russian “pathologies”Russian “pathologies” ABM & Nuclear weaponsABM & Nuclear weapons Conventional weapon systemsConventional weapon systems Mutual apprehensions about USMutual apprehensions about US Marriage, courtship or casual friendship?Marriage, courtship or casual friendship?

Asia: North KoreaAsia: North Korea

US foothold in South KoreaUS foothold in South Korea Sustainable bluster … Sustainable bluster … Russian & Chinese qualms (US)Russian & Chinese qualms (US) Crucial distance from regimeCrucial distance from regime Inflated bargaining chipInflated bargaining chip -- -- NK, RU, CHNK, RU, CH NK ? About longevity …NK ? About longevity … WMD conundrum … WMD conundrum … pol image & realitypol image & reality

The key problem for the use of The key problem for the use of Russian strategic weapons isRussian strategic weapons is

(a)(a) Terrorist threatsTerrorist threats

(b)(b) Low moraleLow morale

(c)(c) Inadequate warningInadequate warning

(d)(d) US ABM systemsUS ABM systems

(e)(e) Too many enemies with Too many enemies with conventional armsconventional arms

Russia & the WESTRussia & the WEST

What happened in the ’90’s?What happened in the ’90’s? Support, frustration, failure …Support, frustration, failure … NATO expansionNATO expansion US-Russian military cooperationUS-Russian military cooperation Business & investmentBusiness & investment Visibility & status of Russia …Visibility & status of Russia … ?US strategy & objectives?US strategy & objectives

Europe: “G 7/8”Europe: “G 7/8”

““players” qualificationsplayers” qualifications Russian case: size, nucs, regionRussian case: size, nucs, region Econ potential: energy, marketEcon potential: energy, market EU wild card …EU wild card … China? Brazil? Other …China? Brazil? Other … ? gain from Club status? gain from Club status

EU & NATOEU & NATO

Future inside or outside …Future inside or outside … IsolationIsolation Which has greater meaning for the Which has greater meaning for the

future?future? Upside … downsideUpside … downside Russian assetsRussian assets

US – Russian RelationsUS – Russian Relations

*BASICS*BASICS

early historyearly history

imagesimages

*Basis of Conflict / Cooperation*Basis of Conflict / Cooperation

““superpower” statussuperpower” status

“ “national interest”national interest”

Public Opinion shaping elementsPublic Opinion shaping elements

Cold War ideologyCold War ideology History (other than Cold War) History (other than Cold War)

WW1, WW2, Tsars, LeninWW1, WW2, Tsars, Lenin Personal & Heritage factorsPersonal & Heritage factors Afghanistan Afghanistan IraqIraq TerrorismTerrorism

How the World Sees Us (Russians)How the World Sees Us (Russians)

40%40% Russians perceived World thinks “Russia Russians perceived World thinks “Russia good”good”

Of those thinking Russia is treated well …Of those thinking Russia is treated well …generally they feel that the situation is improvinggenerally they feel that the situation is improving

46%46% Russians perceive World thinks “Russia bad” Russians perceive World thinks “Russia bad” Of those thinking Russia is treated poorly…Of those thinking Russia is treated poorly…

60%60% say it is UNFAIR; say it is UNFAIR; 22%22% it is objective it is objective

The above numbers further analyzed reveal that The above numbers further analyzed reveal that these opinions range across all social these opinions range across all social demographic groupsdemographic groups

Friends & Foes Friends & Foes October 11, 2004October 11, 2004

Do you think Russia has external Do you think Russia has external enemies that are able to unleash a enemies that are able to unleash a war against us?war against us?

’’98 ’99 ’01 ‘0498 ’99 ’01 ‘04

YES 44% 73% 61% 68%YES 44% 73% 61% 68%

Who are Russia’s Allies? Who are Russia’s Allies?

25%25% USA USA 7%7% Arab & Moslem countries Arab & Moslem countries---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 68%68% Russia has friends; Russia has friends; 16%16% no friends no friends---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ““Friends” (in order)Friends” (in order)Germany (16), France (12), Belarus (12), Germany (16), France (12), Belarus (12), Ukraine (9), USA (8), China (7), Kazakstan ( 5)Ukraine (9), USA (8), China (7), Kazakstan ( 5)

Who Declared War on Russia?Who Declared War on Russia? 68%68% say Russia has foreign enemies who say Russia has foreign enemies who

wish to unleash war against it.wish to unleash war against it. 18%18% say NO. say NO. Who are these “enemies?”Who are these “enemies?”

most mentioned: USA most mentioned: USA 25%25% Arabs & Moslems Arabs & Moslems 14%14% Internatl terrorism Internatl terrorism 15%15% other Western countries other Western countries 5%5% Putin: war had been declared against RussiaPutin: war had been declared against Russia 37%37% agree; agree; 44%44% disagree disagree

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei LavrovRussian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov

March 2005 March 2005 ““Only democrats with their split Only democrats with their split

personalities, could believe that we might personalities, could believe that we might get help from abroad. Nobody will help us get help from abroad. Nobody will help us except ourselves. Therefore, we should be except ourselves. Therefore, we should be powerful and capable of guaranteeing our powerful and capable of guaranteeing our national security in any situation – without national security in any situation – without being an ogre or a monster frightening the being an ogre or a monster frightening the rest of the world. I hope that, having rest of the world. I hope that, having borrowed the best from everyone, we will borrowed the best from everyone, we will build our own Russian democracy.”build our own Russian democracy.”

Some summary generalizationsSome summary generalizations

Russians obviously agree that a hostile Russians obviously agree that a hostile attitude towards Russia exists in the world attitude towards Russia exists in the world today. In keeping with the ideologically today. In keeping with the ideologically shaped Soviet era ‘potential enemy’ concept, shaped Soviet era ‘potential enemy’ concept, many regard the USA as the chief threat. At many regard the USA as the chief threat. At the same time, terrorism recently came to be the same time, terrorism recently came to be regarded as the major foe.regarded as the major foe.

22%22% of those who think the world’s attitude of those who think the world’s attitude towards Russia is bad believe that Russia towards Russia is bad believe that Russia deserves itdeserves it..

European nations are widely seen as friends.European nations are widely seen as friends.

Iraq …Iraq …

42%42% situation in Iraq is worsening situation in Iraq is worsening30%30% situation unchanged; situation unchanged; 5%5% improving improving

Iraqi resistance?Iraqi resistance?51%51% will get stronger; will get stronger; 18%18% remain the same; remain the same;6%6% will weaken will weaken

US Role in World Affairs US Role in World Affairs

America’s influence in the America’s influence in the world?world?rather negative 71% rather negative 71% (late 2004)(late 2004)

undecided ……..15% undecided ……..15%

positive ………….14% positive ………….14%

Russians on BUSH Russians on BUSH

March ’03 March ’03 11%11% sympathy toward Bushsympathy toward Bush

January ’04 January ’04 20%20% April ’04 April ’04 13%13% 60%60% “dislike” Bush “dislike” Bush

… … 74%74% of university graduates of university graduates

Bush – Putin Exchange Bush – Putin Exchange

Bush: “Democracies have certain things Bush: “Democracies have certain things in common: they have rule of law and in common: they have rule of law and protection of minorities, a free press, and protection of minorities, a free press, and a viable political opposition.”a viable political opposition.”

Bush: “The Russian government must Bush: “The Russian government must renew its commitment to democracy and renew its commitment to democracy and the rule of law. We must always remind the rule of law. We must always remind Russia that our alliance stands for a free Russia that our alliance stands for a free press, a vital opposition, sharing power press, a vital opposition, sharing power and the rule of law.”and the rule of law.”

Putin on democracy …Putin on democracy … Putin: “The implementation of the principles and Putin: “The implementation of the principles and

norms of democracy should not be accompanied norms of democracy should not be accompanied through the collapse of the state and the through the collapse of the state and the impoverishment of the people. Democracy is not impoverishment of the people. Democracy is not anarchy; it is not the chance to do anything you anarchy; it is not the chance to do anything you want. It is not the chance for anyone to rob his want. It is not the chance for anyone to rob his own people.”own people.”

““Russia chose a democratic path 14 years ago Russia chose a democratic path 14 years ago and did so and did so notnot in order to make itself compatible in order to make itself compatible with anyone, but for its own good. Naturally, the with anyone, but for its own good. Naturally, the fundamental principles of democracy must be fundamental principles of democracy must be adapted to the reality of today’s life in Russia, to adapted to the reality of today’s life in Russia, to our traditions and history.”our traditions and history.”

Texture & Foreign PolicyTexture & Foreign Policy

Putin: “A global battle for natural Putin: “A global battle for natural resources has begun. Many conflicts resources has begun. Many conflicts carry a whiff of gas and oil. carry a whiff of gas and oil.

NATO is drawing ever-closer to NATO is drawing ever-closer to RussiaRussia

““We shut down our bases in Cuba We shut down our bases in Cuba and Vietnam and what did we get in and Vietnam and what did we get in return? New American bases in return? New American bases in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Czech Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Czech Republic.”Republic.”

Missiles & SpaceMissiles & Space

FM Sergei Lavrov: FM Sergei Lavrov:

US Missiles encircling RussiaUS Missiles encircling Russia ““imperial thinking”imperial thinking” ““missile shield” veiled encirclementmissile shield” veiled encirclement soon hundreds of missiles positionedsoon hundreds of missiles positioned “… “… very naïve to assume that the American very naïve to assume that the American

missile-defense base in Europe is aimed against missile-defense base in Europe is aimed against anything but Russia.”anything but Russia.”

““New phase in the militarization of space”New phase in the militarization of space”

Political demonstrationPolitical demonstration No consultation with RussiaNo consultation with Russia Tests capacity to destroy other Tests capacity to destroy other

countries’ satellitescountries’ satellites New strategic weaponNew strategic weapon Chinese have destroyed one of their Chinese have destroyed one of their

satellites with mil objective in mindsatellites with mil objective in mind

KOSOVOKOSOVO Medvedev: US engineered Kosovo declaration of Medvedev: US engineered Kosovo declaration of

independenceindependence US: Russian unhelpfulUS: Russian unhelpful ““No sober-minded person doubts Russia’s contribution to No sober-minded person doubts Russia’s contribution to

a Kosovo settlement.”a Kosovo settlement.” Ossetia (Georgia/Russia)Ossetia (Georgia/Russia) Abkhazia (Georgia/Russia)Abkhazia (Georgia/Russia) Transdneister (Moldova/Ukraine)Transdneister (Moldova/Ukraine) Chechnya (Russia)Chechnya (Russia) All use Kosovo as precedent/model! All use Kosovo as precedent/model! “ “atomization of larger states” brute force prevailsatomization of larger states” brute force prevails “ “Russia does not have any punitive measures in the Russia does not have any punitive measures in the

arsenal of its foreign policy tools.”arsenal of its foreign policy tools.”

US – Russian RelationsUS – Russian Relations

US is “financial aggressor” and “economic US is “financial aggressor” and “economic terrorist” terrorist”

Forced its monetary unit and free enterprise Forced its monetary unit and free enterprise standards on the rest of the worldstandards on the rest of the world

Unless Russia more assertive, “we’d be treated as Unless Russia more assertive, “we’d be treated as a Third World country … something like Upper a Third World country … something like Upper Volta with nuclear missiles.”Volta with nuclear missiles.”

““Good for Russia to bare its teeth when important Good for Russia to bare its teeth when important issues are at stake.”issues are at stake.”

““When you allow others to push you and keep When you allow others to push you and keep pushing, these others inevitably stop taking you pushing, these others inevitably stop taking you seriously.”seriously.”

US Presidential elections …US Presidential elections …

Medvedev: “work with any”Medvedev: “work with any” “ “business of the American people”business of the American people” ““It is certainly easier to work with a person It is certainly easier to work with a person

who has modern positions and is who has modern positions and is not blinded not blinded by the past.”by the past.”

Institute of Political research: MarkovInstitute of Political research: Markov““a victory for Senator McCain would be the a victory for Senator McCain would be the

worst-case scenario” worst-case scenario” McCain: “I looked into Putin’s eyes and saw McCain: “I looked into Putin’s eyes and saw

the letters KGB.” McCain wants Russia out of the letters KGB.” McCain wants Russia out of G-7.G-7.

Clinton: “Putin doesn’t have a soul.”Clinton: “Putin doesn’t have a soul.” PutinPutin: : “A head of state should have a head.”“A head of state should have a head.”

Obama: Since Putin will remain in charge,Obama: Since Putin will remain in charge,

““We should work on arms control and We should work on arms control and mutual interests while not neglecting mutual interests while not neglecting democracy and accountability.”democracy and accountability.”

Alternative FUTURES?Alternative FUTURES?

Russia gets weaker …Russia gets weaker … Russia gets aggressive …Russia gets aggressive … Russia joins Europe (EU) …Russia joins Europe (EU) … Russia creates Eurasian alliances …Russia creates Eurasian alliances … Russia permits …Russia permits …

capitalist colonializationcapitalist colonialization• Russia disintegrates …Russia disintegrates …

Prediction?Prediction?

On what basis would you make a On what basis would you make a prediction?prediction?

What factors could cause you to What factors could cause you to change your prediction?change your prediction?

Is more change imposed on Russia Is more change imposed on Russia from within or from outside?from within or from outside?

What are the seminal questions?What are the seminal questions?

Does Russia have assets?Does Russia have assets? Who needs Russia?Who needs Russia? Does Russia’s power go up or down Does Russia’s power go up or down

in parallel with ________’sin parallel with ________’s

power?power? Best way to deal with Russia …Best way to deal with Russia …

“ “carrot or stick?”carrot or stick?”

Russians love the past, hate the Russians love the past, hate the present and fear the future present and fear the future ChekhovChekhov

Any Russian who doesn’t honor the Any Russian who doesn’t honor the past has no soul; any Russian who past has no soul; any Russian who wants to return to the past has no wants to return to the past has no brain. brain. PutinPutin

Autocrat or Democrat? Autocrat or Democrat?

Symbol: Double EagleSymbol: Double Eagle

facing both ways …facing both ways …

Perspective!Perspective!

if $1 = 1 second on a clock …if $1 = 1 second on a clock … $80 B$80 B

80,000,000,000 = 2,560 years80,000,000,000 = 2,560 years $300 B$300 B

300,000,000,000 = 9,600 years300,000,000,000 = 9,600 years $1 T$1 T

1,000,000,000,000 = 32,000 years1,000,000,000,000 = 32,000 years

Ukraine / NATO & RussiaUkraine / NATO & Russia

Medvedev: US and European interests Medvedev: US and European interests qualitatively differentqualitatively different

Putin: warned against NATO Putin: warned against NATO membership; hostile to Russia; membership; hostile to Russia; retaliatory actions including targeting retaliatory actions including targeting missile systems in Ukraine.missile systems in Ukraine.

Ukraine: “If Putin is afraid, then fear Ukraine: “If Putin is afraid, then fear will prevent him from taking ill-will prevent him from taking ill-considered steps against Ukraine.”considered steps against Ukraine.”

Other Objectives / PrioritiesOther Objectives / Priorities

Middle East “player” statusMiddle East “player” status Reconsidered relations with ChinaReconsidered relations with China Reconstructing SOVIET sphereReconstructing SOVIET sphere

Medvedev: Russia will establish a common Medvedev: Russia will establish a common economic zone --economic zone --

Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, GeorgiaUkraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Georgia

Foreign Minister Lavrov recently announced that Foreign Minister Lavrov recently announced that he expects the relationship with ________ to be he expects the relationship with ________ to be non-violent and based on international normsnon-violent and based on international norms

(a)(a)EUEU

(b)(b)North AfricaNorth Africa

(c)(c)ChinaChina

(d)(d)North KoreaNorth Korea

(e)(e)Middle EastMiddle East