Rwanda, 2011Rwanda, 2011

Developing the Results Chain in Transformational Development Planning

Results Based Management

Module

• From the Vision to the Results Chain

• What a Results Chain is

• Types of Results

• Concept of Cause and Effect Relationship

• Examples of Results Chains

• Accountability & Control over results

2

Features of Transformational Development Results Framework

• Timing of Results from Left to Right• Horizontal Causality: Concept of Enablers emphasized - Each

result creates enabling conditions for the achievement of all results situated on its right side;

• Vertical causality: Outputs Outcomes Strategic Intent (Impact) ;

• Strategic Intent result level unchanged during Vision cycle (20 years+)

• Vision is basis for alignment of Medium-Term National Development Plans and Development Assistance support

3

From Vision to Result Chains

4

T1T2 T3

T1.1. T2.1. T2.2. T3.1.

From Vision to Result Chains

5

Strategic IntentFor each NDP and UNDAF

A Medium-Term National Development Plan. E.g. NDP-II

OR

An Aligned Development Assistance Framework.e.g. UNDAF

Transformational Dev. Results Framework

An “organogram” of results leading to a desired impact (Strategic Intent) and showing: a)ascending causal relationships between:

• Short term operational results (Input Activities Outputs);

• Medium term institutional and behavioral results (outcomes); and

• Long term expected changes on people and society’s conditions (impact)

b)Horizontal causal relationship between ‘Enablers’ and other results

6

Two Levels of Results

7

Impact

Outcomes

Outputs

Activities

Input

Development Results

(All actors)

Operational Achievements

(your organization)

The intended or achieved short-term and medium-term effects of an intervention’s outputs, usually requiring the collective effort of partners. Outcomes represent changes in development conditions which occur between the completion of outputs and the achievement of impact.

Positive and negative long-term effects on identifiable population groups produced by a development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended.

Impact/Strategic

Intent

Outcome

Output

Result levels

8

Products & services resulting from completion of activities of development interventions. (UNDG) – Operational bottlenecks

Immunization Coverage for traditional and new vaccines increased and sustained

over 90%

Reduced Child Mortality

Improved child survival

Immunization Services expanded geographically and integrating new vaccines to prevent pneumonia and

diarrhea

Types of Results: logical hierarchy

9

Impact/ Strategic

Intent

Outcomes

Outputs

Changes in the lives of people:

realisation of their rights

Behavioural change: new attitudes, practices

Institutional Change: values, laws – associated with institutional

performance, new institutions

Operational Change:

products and services, knowledge, skills (direct result of completion of activities)

GBV

Anti GBV movements

Judicial & media responses to GBV

Policy; GBV One Stop Center

Cause and effect relationship: The If-then logic

10

Strategic Result – impact level

Programme Result – outcome level

Result – intermediate outcome

Result –output level

if

if

if

then

then

then

Cause-effect Relationship

1111

Result

ResultResult

ResultResultResult

Result Result Result Result

Impact Level

Outcome Level

Output Level

The different results are organized by result level into a results chain or results framework, where a logical causal link is established.

12

Results Chain in the context of Poverty Reduction

Outcome

Impact

Output

Activity

Proportion of people living on <$2 a day

halved

Pro-poor economic policies endorsed and

implemented

Regulatory environ. proposed to drive small enterprise

development

- Economic assessment - National consultation - Training of artisans

Results Like… Focus @

Timeframe

<1 yr

<5 yrs

5 yrs

> 5 yrs

Institutional/

Development, products

RHs’ Status

OutcomeEmployment and

income generation increased

Institutional/

Behavioural

5 yrs

thenif

ifthen

then

More

Less

if

Partners’

Accountability and control

thenif

13

Results Chain - Reducing HIV Incidence

Outcome

Impact

Output

Activity

HIV prevalence reduced by

60%

Leadership empowered

Skills of NAC strengthened

Train 250 district AIDS officers

Results Like… Focus @

Timeframe

<1 yr

<5 yrs

5 yrs

> 5 yrs

Institutional/

Behavioural

Operational/ skills, abilities,

products & services

Human!

OutcomeResponse brought to

scale

Institutional/

Behavioural

5 yrs

then if

if

if

if

then

then

then

More

Less

Individual

Accountability

Accountability: Control over results

15

As we move to higher level results, the control we have over them decreases

As we move to higher level results, the control we have over them decreases

Reasons:

•Presence of other actors

•More assumptions involved

•More external factors

affecting final result

Thank you