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Absolute Return Bond - Investing in an uncertain world
2
Introduction to RWC Partners
• RWC Partners is an independent investment firm• Focus is exclusively on high-alpha asset management to institutions, professional investors and intermediaries• Business is built around highly-talented portfolio managers, an intense focus on performance and a strong risk
management culture
• Majority of equity in RWC Partners is owned by RWC personnel – the balance is owned by Schroders• 7 investment teams
• UK Equity John Innes• European Equity Ajay Gambhir• US Equity Mike Corcell• Global Convertible Bond Davide Basile• Global Growth Equity Priya Kodeeswaran• Equity Income and Value Nick Purves & Ian Lance• Absolute Return Bond & Currency Peter Allwright & Stuart Frost
• 65 personnel of which nearly half are investment professionals• Product focus: UCITS & non-UCITS high alpha & absolute return funds
3
Introduction to RWC Absolute Rate & Currency Funds
• Absolute Return funds investing in highly liquid bonds, interest rates and currencies• Alpha-generating investment positions underpinned by short-dated, high grade bond portfolio (beta component)• Currently all short-dated bonds are AAA-rated and the vast majority are government guaranteed
• Strategy first launched by Peter Allwright and Stuart Frost at Threadneedle Asset Management• $3.5bn AUM in absolute return and high alpha strategies; awarded two Gold Medals by Sauren• Investment strategies generated by Price, Flow & Macro investment process developed by the Portfolio Managers
• Proven risk management system based on extensive experience in financial markets• Real-time, market dependent approach to risk taking• Intense focus on instrument liquidity in both short and longer term investments
• Funds aim to make alpha-driven returns with low volatility and low correlation to markets• Agnostic approach to market direction allows funds to take advantage of both rising and falling markets
• Offers good diversification from traditional bond, equity and commodity funds• Low correlation with risk asset drawdowns; high volatility environments provide investment opportunities• Investment process does not depend on asset class rotation
• Funds are sophisticated UCITS IV Luxembourg SICAVS with daily liquidity
Absolute Return Bond & Currency Portfolio Management Team
4
Peter Allwright - Portfolio Manager• Co-manager of Threadneedle Target Return
Bond and Macro Funds• Awarded 2 Gold Medals by Sauren in 2009• MA Engineering, University of Cambridge• CFA Charterholder
Stuart Frost - Portfolio Manager• Co-manager of Threadneedle Target Return
Bond and Macro Funds• Established Natwest FX Chart and
Fundamental Research team in London• Various trading positions at Natwest New
York – prop trader, FX forward
Alice Leedale - Market Strategist• Financial Analyst at Goldman Sachs• MPhil Economics, University of Cambridge• BA Economics and Management, University
of Oxford• CFA candidate
Larry Furness - Market Strategist• Investment Analyst at Permal Investment
Management• BA Economics, University of Nottingham• Investment Management Certificate holder• CFA candidate
Portfolio Management
Peter Allwright
Stuart Frost
Analysis
Larry Furness
Operations
Alice Leedale
Risk
Peter Harrison
Compliance and Legal
Sales and Marketing
Robert Ritchie
Administrator
5
RWC Absolute Rate & Currency Funds
RWC Absolute Rate & Currency Funds – Overview
6
• Macro-orientated Absolute Return trading funds, investing in liquid interest rate and currency markets• Core, high grade, fixed income portfolio supports alpha-generating trading strategies• Alpha strategies provide returns with low correlation to markets and low volatility
• Strategies aim to achieve a net return* of cash +3% and cash +6%, annualised, over the market cycle• Highly liquid securities ensure exposure can be de-risked efficiently to reduce “drawdowns”• Physical high grade bond investments provide a stable yield and exposure to duration• Directional and tactical “strategies” provide the majority of excess returns
Alpha Portfolio
High Grade Bond Portfolio
• Physical high grade bond portfolio• Short maturities• Provides a cash return on investments• Some alpha component from duration management• Highly liquid and provides collateral if needed
• Overlay adds pure alpha• Liquid rates and currencies• Predominantly derivative instruments• Exchange traded rates and forward and OTC FX• No illiquid derivative structures
*Net of the institutional share class fee
RWC ARC Funds –High Grade Bond Portfolio (Example of Holdings)
7
Country Issuer Coupon Maturity Rating Holding (%)
Leaseplan Corporation (Govt. Guarantee) 3 1/8 10/02/2012 Aaa/AAA 14.33%
Swedbank AB (Govt. Guarantee) 3 1/8 02/02/2012 Aaa/AAA 8.19%
SNS Bank (Govt. Guarantee) 2 7/8 30/01/2012 Aaa/AAA 8.17%
HSH Nordbank (Govt. Guarantee) 2 3/4 20/01/2012 Aaa/AAA 8.17%
Bayerische Landesbank (Govt. Guarantee) 2 3/4 23/01/2012 Aaa/AAA 8.17%
Spar Nord Bank (Govt. Guarantee) 2 1/2 10/07/2012 Aaa/AAA 8.10%
NIBC Bank (Govt. Guarantee) 3 5/8 19/12/2011 Aaa/AAA 6.18%
NIBC Bank (Govt. Guarantee) 3 1/8 17/02/2012 Aaa/AAA 6.14%
Rabobank Nederland 4 1/8 04/04/2012 Aaa/AAA 4.12%
Commerzbank (Govt. Guarantee) 2 3/4 13/01/2012 Aaa/AAA 4.08%
Source: RWC Partners 03/11/11
Alpha Portfolio
High Grade Bond Portfolio
Rating % of Fund
AAA 79.73%
AA 0.00%
A 0.00%
BBB 0.00%
BB and below 0.00%
Unrated 0.00%
Total 79.73%
Sector % of Fund
Sovereign/Agency/Supra 75.61%
Financial 4.12%
Corporate 0.00%
Secured/Collateralised 0.00%
Total 79.73%
Analytics % of Fund
Duration 0.28 years
Current Yield 0.79%
Average rating AAA
• Provides beta element of portfolio
• Emphasis on liquidity and quality
• Residual interest rate and/or credit risk can be hedged if necessary
Country of Issuer % of Fund
Netherlands 38.94%
Germany 20.42%
Denmark 12.18%
Sweden 8.19%
RWC ARC Funds – Alpha Portfolio
8
• Managed as overlay to add return to high grade bond portfolio
• Focused, highest conviction investment strategies:
• Strategies can be directional or market neutral
• Typically a small number of strategies deployed at any point in time• One strategy may be implemented in a number of different ways
• Liquid securities ensure overlay can be collapsed or de-risked efficiently and quickly
• Option strategies may be used to take exposure, hedge risk or book profit where it is economic and efficient to do so
• Range of instruments potentially employed:
Alpha Portfolio
High Grade
Bond Portfolio
Interest Rates
• Short term interest rate futures and options on futures
• Repos• Interest rate swaps
Credit• Corporate bonds• CDS indices e.g. iTraxx• New issues
• Global and emerging markets• Spot and forward FX• OTC FX options
Currencies
• Physical government bonds• Government bond futures and options on
futures (exchange traded)• Sovereign CDS
Government Bonds
9
Investment Process Overview
Flow Analysis•Aim: Identify supply/demand dynamics and permanent positioning•Analyse: Monitoring actions of major market participants•Action: Directional investments
Investment Process – Price, Flow & Macro Analysis
10
Price Analysis•Aim: To establish current and future
state of play in any given market, i.e. trend or range
•Analyse: Charts of bonds, FX and indices
•Action: Identification of trading opportunities and attractive
entry and exit points
Macro Analysis•Aim: To anticipate economic trends in growth and inflation, future path of interest rates
•Analyse: Key economic variables, qualitative analysis of economic fundamentals
•Action: Fundamental input for trading ideas
P.F.M.
Investment Process – Price, Flow & Macro Analysis
11
• Investment process looks at opportunities from three critical perspectives:• Price Analysis
• What market are we in? Trend / Range / Reversal• Market psychology – price performance relative to economic releases• Moving average support – confirmation of trend/range• Discipline – price and time – stop loss / stop profit
• Flow Analysis• Bond auctions / QE buybacks / Index moves• CB/SWF currency diversification policy and resource management• Pension solvency regulation / Bank capital• Overall risk sentiment and positioning
• Macro Analysis• Economic fundamentals – GDP / Employment / Retail sales etc.• Monetary policy, interest rates and inflation• Fiscal policy and debt outlook• Internal and geo-political outlook
• The Price, Flow & Macro analysis is quantified through the P.F.M. ‘Scorecard’ (see overleaf)• Each of the macro, flow, and price chart-based input factors is scored on a scale of -3 to +3; scores should be forward-looking
• Aggregate scores give representation of attractiveness of currencies, commodities, equity indices and various points on the yield curve
• Ratings move frequently as P.F.M. inputs change – formally reviewed every week
• Scorecard output is used to help assess and select investment opportunities• It is an idea generator and is not followed mechanically
• A high conviction strategy developed from any of the P.F.M. processes will be tested against the other two analytical processes
MacroFlow
Price
Price
Flow Macro
Price
MacroFlow
USD EUR GBP JPY CHF AUD NZD NOK SEK CAD CNY BRL KRW MXN TRY ZAR SGD HUF PLN RUB
Price RatingCurrency 0 -1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 2 0 0 0
2Y 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -5Y 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - - - - - - - - - -30Y 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - - - - - - - - - -
Flow Rating Risk Sentiment Factor: neutral 0
Currency -1 2 2 -1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 0 2 3 1 1 02Y 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -5Y 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -30Y 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -
Macro RatingCurrency 1D 0 0 0 2D 2D 2 2 2D 2D 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1
2Y -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -5Y -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -30Y -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -
TOTAL USD EUR GBP JPY CHF AUD NZD NOK SEK CAD CNY BRL KRW MXN TRY ZAR SGD HUF PLZ RUBCurrency 0 1 2 0 3 5 5 4 4 5 2 4 6 5 1 2 7 2 3 1
2Y -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -5Y 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -30Y 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -
Fixed Income Rating Currency Rating Only
Investment Process – Price, Flow & Macro Scorecard
12Risk sentiment factor reflects the current overall level of market risk aversion. As a general rule, in a “risk-off “market USD, JPY, CHF and bonds benefit, at the expense of the other currencies such as EUR, SEK, AUD and CAD.
Macro scores with U and D reflect potential score upgrade and downgrade respectively. See appendix pages 29 – 33 for further details.
SPECIMEN ONLY
Please note, this is a historical example and not the current scorecard and will therefore not reflect current positions
Very High or Low TOTAL scores
highlight attractive investment
opportunities
Risk Sentiment Factor reflects current overall level
of market risk aversion: risk-off, neural or risk-on
Investment Process – Current Themes and Evolving Ideas Board
13
Current Themes Evolving Ideas
Risk-off,
Lower YieldsLess Liquidity, More Volatility
German Political Crisis?
Global Slowdown
China Hard Landing?
Commodity Bubble Bursts
Italian Debt Crisis
DM: Inflation or Deflation?
Iran Nuclear Standoff
Commodity Country
Slowdown
Greek Haircut: How Large?
Eurozone Breakup?
Weak Asian Equities
French Debt Crisis
Eurozone Fiscal Union /
Eurobonds
ECB =
Bad Bank?
ECB does QE
Gold Bubble Bursts?
Global Deleveraging
Priced-in
Greek Restructuring
Energy Prices
QE2 in the UK
Portugal & Ireland
Haircuts
Operation Twist
Developed World
Recession?
UK & EZ Downgrades
EFSF Leveraging
Republicans vs. the Fed
US stronger than
Eurozone?
Global Trade Wars
Currency Wars: CHF, JPY, CNY
US Debt Ceiling Round 2
US Stronger Q3, Weaker
Q4
Bond Market Crisis of
Confidence
14
Investment Process – Implementation of Investment Opportunities
Expression of Investment Opportunity
• Market• Currency• Long or short• Proxy or security
specific
Choice of Instrument•Cash securities•Futures •Options•Forwards•Swaps
Sizing & Risk Management• Risk budget• Liquidity• Volatility• Transparency• Simplicity
Entry and Exit Points• Price targets• Call level• Rolling stop profits• Time Limits
15
Sizing and Risk Management
Sizing and Risk Management – Approach to Risk Management
16
• Pragmatic, market dependant approach to risk taking
• Consider three key sources of risk: market, liquidity and counterparty
• Risk assessed on a top down ‘whole portfolio’ view as well as an individual trade-by-trade basis
• Aim to deliver portfolio return targets consistently and incrementally• Stop-loss markers at the portfolio and individual trade levels• Portfolio stop-losses consistent with return target (+3% and +6%)
• Expected maximum VaR (Monte Carlo)
• Cautious ARC 20 day 99% confidence, 500bps limit
• Enhanced ARC 20 day 99% confidence, 1000bps limit
• However, VaR measure is predominantly a backward looking indicator
• Important to consider that:• Correlations move to extremes in times of stress• Market neutral strategies may have significant implicit directional bias
Sizing and Risk Management – Position Sizing
17
• Focus on position sizing as a basic risk control
• Examine four key variables for position sizing: conviction, volatility contribution, liquidity and potential correlation with other holdings
• Size of risk allocation dependant on market conditions:
• High conviction and low expected volatility/risk suggests typical sizing
• High expected volatility/risk requires reduced sizing
• DV01 risk (bonds, interest rates) and % NAV (FX) used to size and set stop profit/loss levels relative to expectations of market volatility and not just current market volatility
Position Sizing
Conviction
Volatility Contribution
Correlations with Other Holdings
Liquidity
P.F.M. Scorecard
Market Assessment
Volatility Scorecard
Volatility Scorecard
18
Appendices
RWC Cautious Absolute Rate & Currency Fund – Term Sheet
19
• Launch Date 29th December 2006• Liquidity Daily subscriptions & redemptions / daily NAV• Fees A Share Class: Retail 1.35% AMC / 10% performance fee
Fees B Share Class: Institutional 0.70% AMC / 10% performance fee• Performance Fee HWM Yes – highest previous calendar year end• Performance Fee hurdle Yes – HWM + LIBOR or equivalent• Fund structure Luxembourg SICAV (UCITS IV)
Sub-fund of the “RWC Funds” SICAV• Currency EUR base currency – USD, GBP, CHF hedged share class• UCITS IV status Sophisticated Fund• Administrator Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild Europe• Local Registrations Luxembourg / UK / Germany / Switzerland / Italy / Sweden• Tax UK / Germany / Austria
RWC Enhanced Absolute Rate & Currency Fund – Term Sheet
20
• Launch Date 14th February 2011• Liquidity Daily subscriptions & redemptions / daily NAV• Fees A Share Class: Retail 1.5% AMC / 15% performance fee
Fees B Share Class: Institutional 0.8% AMC / 15% performance fee• Performance Fee HWM Paid quarterly. Share class level high water mark• Performance Fee hurdle Yes – HWM + LIBOR or equivalent• Fund structure Luxembourg SICAV (UCITS IV)
Sub-fund of the “RWC Funds” SICAV• Currency EUR base currency – GBP, USD hedged share classes• UCITS IV designation Sophisticated Fund• Administrator Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild Europe• Local Registrations Italy / Luxembourg / Germany / Switzerland / Sweden / UK• Tax UK / Germany / Austria
Daily reporting available for Germany Tax Transparency
Absolute Return Bond & Currency Portfolio Management Team
21
Peter Allwright – Portfolio Manager
• Joined RWC Partners in September 2010 with Stuart Frost as co-head of the Absolute Return Bond & Currency Team
• Threadneedle Asset Management – 2005-2010• Co-manager on all Absolute and Target Return Bond Funds and Macro Funds from inception
• $3bn AUM in absolute return and high alpha strategies
• Absolute Return Bond Fund – AA rated by S&P / A rated by OBSR
• Awarded 2 Gold Medals by Sauren in 2009 for Absolute Return funds and 2 for the Macro fund
• Additional responsibilities included management of core Global and European Bond funds
• Gartmore – Senior Portfolio Manager – 2004-2005
• Royal London Asset Management – 2001-2004• Manager of the award winning Overseas Bond Fund
• Professional Pensions best performing Global Bond Fund 2002, 2003 and 2004
• 1993 – 2001 Nomura, Nikko and Svenska Handelsbanken
• Proprietary trader and market maker in government bond and credit markets
• MA (Hons) from the University of Cambridge in Engineering and Management Studies
• CFA Charterholder
Absolute Return Bond & Currency Portfolio Management Team
22
Stuart Frost – Portfolio Manager
• Joined RWC Partners in September 2010 with Peter Allwright as co-head of the Absolute Return Bond & Currency Team
• Threadneedle Asset Management – 2007-2010• Co-manager on all Absolute and Target Return Bond Funds and Macro Funds from inception
• $3bn AUM in absolute return and high alpha strategies
• Absolute Return Bond Fund – AA rated by S&P / A rated by OBSR
• Lloyds TSB Markets – Head of Global Charting - 2006
• Gartmore – Senior Portfolio Manager – 2004-2005
• FX Hedge Fund
• NatWest Markets – 1980-2000• 1992-2000 Established and managed the NatWest Treasury FX chart and fundamental research
team in London
• 1980-1990 Forward FX dealer, Futures trader and Prop Trader in New York
• A regular top 3 winner in the Euro money FX and Greenwich markets survey polls
• Responsibilities for client coverage within research – Europe, UK and Asia
• Qualifications from New York Institute of Finance in Technical Analysis and Bond Markets
• 1994-1997 Guest lecturer in Charting at City University Business School
23
Absolute Return Bond & Currency Portfolio Management Team
Alice Leedale – Market Strategist
• Joined RWC Partners in March 2011 as a Market Strategist in the Absolute Return Bond & Currency Team
• Goldman Sachs International – 2006-2009• Financial analyst in the UK Mergers and Acquisitions Advisory Group• Extensive experience in financial modelling, company valuation and capital structure analysis
• University of Cambridge – MPhil Economics – 2009-2010• Specialist subjects: Asset Pricing, International Finance, Monetary Policy• Dissertation: ‘Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the UK’
• University of Oxford – First Class BA (Hons) Economics and Management – 2002-2006
Larry Furness – Market Strategist
• Joined RWC Partners in August 2010 as a graduate recruit• Joined the Absolute Return Bond & Currency Team in February 2011
• Permal Investment Management – Investment Analyst (Internship) – 2010• Involved with manager research which included attending Cap Intro events as an Analyst
• Government Economic Service – Assistant Economist (Internship) – 2008• Graduated in 2009 with an honours bachelor’s degree in Economics from The University of
Nottingham
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2006Threadneedle TRF - - - - 0.4% -0.1% 0.1% -0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% -0.1% 0.9%
EURIBOR – 3 month - 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 2.3%
2007Threadneedle TRF -0.2% 1.1% -0.3% -0.4% -0.7% -0.5% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 5.6%
EURIBOR – 3 month 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 4.4%
2008Threadneedle TRF 2.8% 1.3% 1.9% -1.8% -1.1% -0.4% 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.9% 2.4% 1.3% 12.0%
EURIBOR – 3 month 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 4.6%
2009Threadneedle TRF 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% -0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% -0.1% 0.0% 4.1%
EURIBOR – 3 month 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2%
2010Threadneedle TRF 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% -0.5% 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -0.4%
EURIBOR – 3 month 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.3%
2011RWC Cautious ARC n/a n/a -0.5% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% -0.3% 0.6%
EURIBOR – 1 month n/a n/a 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0%
24
Performance of Strategy Since Inception (Net of Fees)
% of up-months
% of down-months
Total ReturnAnnualised
ReturnAnnualised Vol Sharpe Ratio
Strategy 64 36 24.5% 4.6% 3.0 0.69
Source: RWC Partners / Bloomberg. Data shown is for the period April 2006 – end October 2011, calculated on a NAV‐NAV basis, net of fees with Gross income reinvested. Data is not included for the period July 2010 – February 2011 as Peter Allwright and Stuart Frost were not managing the strategy. Performance from March 2011 relates to the RWC Cautious ARC Fund (B‐EUR). The Fund became sophisticated on 8th March 2011. Performance shown for the period April 2006 to June 2010 is for the Threadneedle Target Return (Threadneedle TRF) Fund, EUR institutional share class, calculated on a Bid‐Bid basis, net of fees. The index used is 3‐Month EURIBOR for the period April 2006 – June 2010, and 1‐month EURIBOR from March 2011 – September 2011.
Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Performance of Strategy Since Inception (Net of Fees)
25Source: RWC Partners / Bloomberg. Data shown is for the period April 2006 – end October 2011, calculated on a NAV‐NAV basis, net of fees with Gross income reinvested. Data is not included for the period July 2010 – February 2011 as Peter Allwright and Stuart Frost were not managing the strategy. Performance from March 2011 relates to the RWC Cautious ARC Fund (B‐EUR). The Fund became sophisticated on 8th March 2011. Performance shown for the period April 2006 to June 2010 is for the Threadneedle Target Return (Threadneedle TRF) Fund, EUR institutional share class, calculated on a Bid‐Bid basis, net of fees. The index used is 3‐Month EURIBOR for the period April 2006 – June 2010, and 1‐month EURIBOR from March 2011 – September 2011.
Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11
Cum
ulat
ive
Ret
urn
Performance of Strategy since inception
Cumulative Strategy Reference Index
Note: Period relates to when the portfolio managers were in between companies and were not managing the strategy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Mo
nths
Monthy Return
Strategy - Distribution of Monthly Returns
Performance of Strategy Since Inception – Distribution of Returns
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
-4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Mo
nths
Monthy Return
Strategy - Distribution of Monthly Returns
Returns from period when the fund was unsophisticated
Source: RWC Partners / Bloomberg. Data shown is for the period April 2006 – end October 2011, calculated on a NAV‐NAV basis, net of fees with Gross income reinvested. Data is not included for the period July 2010 – February 2011 as Peter Allwright and Stuart Frost were not managing the strategy. Performance from March 2011 relates to the RWC Cautious ARC Fund (B‐EUR). The Fund became sophisticated on 8th March 2011. Performance shown for the period April 2006 to June 2010 is for the Threadneedle Target Return (Threadneedle TRF) Fund, EUR institutional share class, calculated on a Bid‐Bid basis, net of fees. The index used is 3‐Month EURIBOR for the period April 2006 – June 2010, and 1‐month EURIBOR from March 2011 – September 2011.
Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Performance of Threadneedle Macro Trading Fund (Net of Fees)
27
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2008Threadneedle Macro
Trading Fund- - - - - - - - - 0.96% 3.65% 2.11% 6.85%
2009Threadneedle Macro
Trading Fund0.09% 0.31% 1.82% 1.35% 2.07% 0.37% 0.17% 1.43% 0.31% 1.23% 0.66% 0.04% 10.28%
2010Threadneedle Macro
Trading Fund0.65% -0.19% 0.60% -1.20% -1.72% -0.29% - - - - - - -2.16%
Source: RWC Partners / Bloomberg.
NAV to NAV net income reinvested. Net of fees
Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested
% of up-months
% of down-months
Total ReturnAnnualised
ReturnAnnualised Vol Sharpe Ratio
Strategy 81% 19% 15.29% 8.47% 4.09% 1.79
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Threadneedle Macro Trading Crescendo Fund - Class A USD
28
Price, Flow & Macro Analysis
P.F.M. Scorecard – Score Calculation Explanation
29
Please note, this is a historical example and not the current scorecard and will therefore not reflect current positions
USD EUR GBP JPY CHF AUD NZD NOK SEK CAD CNY BRL KRW MXN TRY ZAR SGD HUF PLN RUB
Price RatingCurrency 1 -1 0 0 3 1 1 0 1 1 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 2 0 0 0
2Y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -5Y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - - - - - - - - - -30Y 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - - - - - - - - - -
Flow Rating Risk Sentiment Factor: risk-off -2
Currency 1 0 0 1 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -22Y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -5Y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -30Y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -
Macro RatingCurrency 2D 2D 1 0 2 2 1U 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
2Y -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -5Y -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -30Y -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 - - - - - - - - - -
TOTAL USD EUR GBP JPY CHF AUD NZD NOK SEK CAD CNY BRL KRW MXN TRY ZAR SGD HUF PLZ RUBCurrency 4 1 1 1 7 2 1 1 2 2 0 2 3 2 -1 1 4 0 1 -1
2Y 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -5Y 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -
10Y 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -30Y 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - -
Currency Rating OnlyFixed Income Rating
GBP Currency Score Calculation:
Price = 0Flow = 0Currency = 1
Total Score: 0 + 0 + 1 = 1
CAD 2 Year Government Bond Score Calculation:
Price = 1Flow = 1Currency = -2
Total Score: 1 + 1 - 2 = 0
• Please see pages 31 to 33 for a guide to P.F.M scoring
Risk sentiment factor reflects the current overall level of market risk aversion. As a general rule, in a “risk-off “market USD, JPY, CHF and bonds benefit, at the expense of the other currencies such as EUR, SEK, AUD and CAD.
Macro scores with U and D reflect potential score upgrade and downgrade respectively.
Price Analysis Methodology Overview
30
• The main thrust of our chart/price analysis is to establish the type of investment arena a market is currently in
• Key question: range-bound or trend?
• This defines our investment horizons: trading positions in range-bound markets will be shorter term in nature and positions in trending situations will be longer term
Key Aim
• We use simple chart analysis of hourly, daily, weekly and monthly bar charts
• We do not use black box systems or chart techniques that follow standardised rules, e.g. DeMark, Elliot wave, Gann analysis etc.; all views are discretionary
Instruments
• We look for patterns in the price of a security of a reversal or continuation nature; some are standard market patterns such as double tops, double bottoms and some are proprietary to our knowledge and experience
• We also look at the angle of trend and how that can impact on market retracements. Past experience with market bubbles is key and we are able to identify these situations as they occur, before they break down, with market experience back to 1985
Pattern Recognition
• In summary we employ a tape reading technique that uses simple support and resistance lines, pattern recognition, and market psychology as it relates to price vs. macro views
• We also consider round numbers and price against time to be very important
Summary
• We examine price developments in relation to fundamentals, looking for price to confirm or not confirm Macro views
• This gives us early warning signals of trend or range reversals when price fails to confirm prior moves at some point Confirmation
• We also look at the psychology of the market and historical support and resistance levels, particularly 100% retracements of prior moves
• Is the market overbought or oversold and struggling at historical levels?
Market Psychology
• Support and resistance levels• Psychological levels• Contrarian views when appropriate• Market positioning – overbought or oversold• Does price action confirm economic
releases?• Are fundamentals already priced in?
P.F.M. Scorecard – Guide to Price Scoring
31
• Scores represent attractiveness from a technical / price action perspective
• Scores imply trading opportunities and target entry and exit points
• Price discipline is key in confirming economics / flow
• Price numbers reflect medium to long term time horizon
• Score of +3 indicates a strong long term upward trend, -3 indicates a strong long term downward trend
• Score of -1, 0 or +1 represents a range bound market
Investment Environment
Moving Average Support
• Trend or range bound• Potential range breakout• Reversal or continuation• Pattern recognition• Timing• Short term or long term
Market Psychology
Discipline
• Intraday high/low day moving average bands
• Used for trend confirmation• Can suggest continued or persistent
trending markets
• Stop losses• Stop profits• Trailing stops• Time discipline – stale investments• Identify targets on trends or ranges
• Key areas of consideration and analysis for price scoring:
Price Rating USD EUR GBPCurrency -1 0 -1
2Y 1 0 15Y 1 0 1
10Y 1 0 130Y 1 0 1
• Trend or range bound• Potential range breakout• Reversal or continuation• Inflection points• Short term or long term market• Pattern recognition• Inter-market analysis and correlations
MacroFlow
Price
• Scores indicate positive and negative flow and positioning dynamics
• Score of +3 could represent buybacks, regulation or bad market positioning
• Score of -3 could reflect large supply, asset allocation flows or sentiment
• Time frame is market dependent (e.g. pension flows LT, auctions ST)
• Flow factors can produce idiosyncratic scores at points on the yield curve (e.g. pension regulation, upcoming auctions)
Flow Rating USD EUR GBPCurrency -2 1 1
2Y 1 -1 15Y 1 -1 1
10Y 0 -1 130Y 0 0 2
Risk Sentiment Factor: risk-off -2
P.F.M. Scorecard – Guide to Flow Scoring
32
Market Sentiment & Positioning
Regulation
• Risk-on vs. risk-off market sentiment
• Market positioning
• Asset allocation: safe havens, carry trade
• Key market bull and bear themes
• Pension fund regulation
• Bank capital requirements
• Key areas of consideration and analysis for flow scoring:
Bond Supply & Demand Dynamics
FX Supply & Demand
Dynamics
• CB/SWF currency diversification
• Reserve regulation
• FX market intervention
• Exchange controls policy (EM)
• Government bond auctions
• QE and buybacks
• Mortgage convexity hedging
• Month end index extension
Price
MacroFlow
• Risk sentiment toggle adjusts for current overall level of market risk aversion
• A negative score reflects a more “risk-off” market sentiment
• General rule in a “risk-off “market: USD, JPY, CHF and bonds benefit, at the expense of the other currencies
• Inflation: headline, core, target• Inflation expectations• GDP relative to trend, unemployment• Central bank communications:
announcements, press conferences, minutes, speeches
• Taylor rule analysis, real yields• QE, money supply
P.F.M. Scorecard – Guide to Macro Scoring
33
Macro Rating USD EUR GBPCurrency 2D 2 1
2Y -2 -2 -15Y -2 -2 -1
10Y -2 -2 -130Y -2 -2 -1
• Scores reflect relative macro fundamental strength (-3 to +3)
• Currency scores below 0 signal recession (-3 equivalent to Sep-01/Sep-08)
• Scores are updated as views change based on new data and news flow
• Scores are forward looking and represent short term horizon (0 – 6 months)
• Outlook for longer term bonds incorporate long term expectations
• Signals potential downgrade (D) or upgrade (U) (e.g. recent data inconsistent with current score but not yet conclusive)
• EUR bond scores refer to core Eurozone bonds (i.e. Germany), not peripheral sovereign debt
Economic Fundamentals
Fiscal Policy &
Sovereign Debt
• Growth and business cycle metrics: GDP, industrial production, trade, retail sales
• Forward looking indicators and surveys• Current account, terms of trade• Labour market, unemployment• Property market• Financial sector
Monetary Policy &
Interest Rates
Political & Other
• Fiscal deficit as % of GDP• Govt debt as % of GDP• Sovereign debt rating• Issuance and redemption profiles• Fiscal consolidation• Sovereign debt crises and bail-outs• Risk premia and default rates
• Political instability: elections, minority and coalition governments, US Congress
• Policy and regulatory changes• Wars, terrorism• Natural disasters, extreme weather• Demographics
• Key areas of consideration and analysis for macro scoring:
Price
Flow Macro
34
Sizing and Risk Management
35
ARC Funds and RWC Partners Risk Management Overview
Independent Fund Monitoring• RWC Asset Management LLP act as the fund’s advisor• BPERE (Rothschild) are independent administrator &
custodian• AB Fund Services appointed for local Luxembourg and
UCITS oversight• Daily production and reconciliation of NAVs• Daily cash reconciliation• Independent Board of Directors speak with portfolio manager
and CEO once a quarter
Corporate Risk Management• Revenue is diversified across investment teams, products
and clients.
• Business is managed to be profitable before performance fees are generated
• An independent third party consultant reviews our compliance infrastructure twice a year.
Internal Risk Management & Oversight• Separation of compliance, risk oversight and portfolio
management • Independent Risk Manager reporting directly to CEO
• Daily independent review of DV01, option and FX exposures via thinkFolio
• Exposures considered within context risk observed and expected within market
• Market-dependent stress-testing and scenario analyses
• VaR monitoring (considering both expected correlations and extreme correlations)
• Significant risks discussed directly with PM and highlighted to CEO who has ultimate oversight of risk. CEO has regular review meetings with PM teams.
Portfolio Risk Management• Pragmatic, market dependant approach to risk taking
• Risk assessed at the individual trade and portfolio levels
• Funds managed through :
• Beauchamps hedge fund accounting system; and
• thinkFolio portfolio modelling and trade management system, designed specifically for bonds and currency management (not a VaR system)
• Highly liquid securities ensure portfolio can be collapsed or de-risked efficiently and quickly
• Third party risk company AB Funds in Luxembourg using Kinetic Software to measure daily VaR (Monte Carlo)
Yield Volatility Scorecard
36
As at 12 Jul 11
1st 3Month
5th 3Month Short Medium Long 2yr 5yr 10yr 30yr
USDED1 ED5 TU1 FV1 TY1 US1 WN1
Curr Yield 0.43% 0.74% 0.98% 1.66% 3.09% 4.03% 4.18% 0.35% 1.42% 2.86% 4.15%30d Yield Vol (bps) 69.8 122.4 87.1 150.6 116.8 96.0 96.3 54.0 119.3 105.4 83.3
180d Yield Vol (bps) 43.3 85.4 59.2 87.6 73.8 71.4 74.1 36.0 75.2 79.4 72.0Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 68.1 100.5 79.7 118.2 122.0 125.4 44.5 124.4 149.1 157.7
EURER1 ER5 DU 1 OE1 RX1
Curr Yield 1.65% 1.74% 1.71% 1.95% 2.60% 1.20% 1.77% 2.60% 3.25%30d Yield Vol (bps) 101.1 116.1 105.6 114.5 95.3 93.8 107.0 88.0 93.3
180d Yield Vol (bps) 77.0 79.3 80.5 76.2 59.9 72.9 67.7 57.5 59.1Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 104.1 118.7 108.5 100.9 85.2 98.2 90.2 88.9 99.1
GBPL 1 L 5 G 1
Curr Yield 0.92% 1.12% 3.20% 0.67% 1.68% 2.99% 4.08%30d Yield Vol (bps) 58.6 65.3 128.4 46.9 82.6 86.7 58.5
180d Yield Vol (bps) 62.2 82.1 66.2 40.1 58.0 57.3 50.5Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 70.3 100.1 106.6 60.4 84.3 97.1 94.8
JPYJB1
Curr Yield 1.31% 0.16% 0.42% 1.15% 2.10%30d Yield Vol (bps) 27.3 9.2 21.8 28.7 27.0
180d Yield Vol (bps) 31.3 12.9 27.3 33.0 33.5Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 64.4 35.9 53.1 68.4 88.2
AUDYM1 XM1
Curr Yield 4.45% 4.95% 0.16% 0.42% 1.15% 2.10%30d Yield Vol (bps) 137.2 117.5 9.2 21.8 28.7 27.0
180d Yield Vol (bps) 70.1 63.2 12.9 27.3 33.0 33.5Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 175.3 161.1 35.9 53.1 68.4 88.2
Yield Volatility Scorecard
Ultra Long
• Please see pages 16 and 17 for a guide to sizing and risk management• As with the P.F.M. Scorecard, an objective view of expected volatility is made as well as the following quantitative view
Please note this is a historical example and not the current scorecard and will therefore not reflect current values
‘Curr Yield’ is the current yield to maturity on the contract; ‘30d Yield Vol’ is the observed volatility in the yields of the contract over the past 30 calendar days in bps; ‘180d Yield Vol’ is the observed volatility in the yields of the contract over the past 180 calendar days in bps; ‘Extreme Yield Vol’ is the 95% highest ‘30d Yield Vol’ observed over the past 10yrs in bps.
FX Volatility Scorecard
37
As at 13 Jul 11
USD EUR GBP JPY CHF AUD NZD NOK SEK CAD CNY BRL KRW MXN TRY ZAR SGD HUF PLN RUB
Curr FX 1.41 1.60 0.01 1.21 1.08 0.83 0.18 0.15 1.04 0.15 0.64 0.09 0.09 0.61 0.15 0.82 0.53 0.35 0.0430d Yield Vol (bps) 13.3% 7.7% 7.1% 10.1% 12.2% 14.2% 15.1% 17.5% 10.8% 1.9% 9.7% 8.1% 9.1% 10.6% 12.9% 5.9% 21.2% 18.2% 8.3%
180d Yield Vol (bps) 10.7% 7.6% 9.0% 10.2% 10.8% 12.2% 12.9% 13.8% 8.1% 2.0% 9.4% 8.2% 7.4% 10.7% 12.6% 5.1% 15.4% 14.2% 7.5%Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 15.0% 16.2% 16.1% 16.0% 23.1% 25.4% 21.4% 23.5% 16.4% 2.7% 33.7% 25.0% 17.5% 32.3% 29.6% 8.4% 28.8% 28.5% 16.9%
Curr FX 0.71 1.13 0.89 0.86 0.76 0.59 0.13 0.11 0.74 0.11 0.45 0.67 0.06 0.43 0.10 0.58 0.37 0.25 0.0330d Yield Vol (bps) 13.2% 8.0% 14.1% 16.1% 8.3% 10.6% 8.4% 7.3% 7.3% 13.1% 6.6% 12.5% 7.4% 10.7% 6.6% 9.0% 9.8% 8.2% 10.1%
180d Yield Vol (bps) 10.7% 8.4% 13.1% 10.9% 10.2% 12.7% 7.6% 7.0% 9.7% 10.5% 9.7% 11.5% 9.9% 11.2% 10.8% 8.2% 7.7% 7.1% 9.9%Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 15.1% 12.7% 21.4% 11.5% 17.7% 17.9% 14.1% 13.7% 15.2% 15.2% 35.3% 25.3% 20.6% 39.0% 29.2% 13.4% 19.7% 21.1% 16.3%
Curr FX 0.63 0.88 0.79 0.76 0.67 0.52 0.11 0.10 0.65 0.10 0.40 0.59 0.05 0.38 0.09 0.51 0.33 0.22 0.0230d Yield Vol (bps) 7.7% 8.1% 8.7% 11.7% 8.9% 10.9% 11.9% 13.0% 7.1% 7.6% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 10.1% 9.2% 4.4% 16.7% 13.6% 7.2%
180d Yield Vol (bps) 7.6% 8.4% 11.5% 10.8% 9.3% 12.0% 10.9% 11.2% 8.4% 7.5% 9.5% 8.1% 8.7% 10.7% 11.8% 6.1% 12.5% 11.6% 10.4%Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 16.4% 12.6% 23.6% 17.5% 18.0% 20.0% 16.9% 19.0% 14.5% 20.8% 33.1% 24.9% 21.8% 53.8% 31.4% 12.8% 24.7% 25.3% 18.4%
Curr FX 79.2 111.8 126.6 96.0 85.1 66.0 14.3 12.2 82.6 12.2 50.3 7.5 6.7 48.1 11.6 65.0 0.4 27.8 2.830d Yield Vol (bps) 7.1% 13.9% 8.5% 9.2% 13.0% 13.8% 17.3% 18.9% 12.1% 7.0% 11.5% 9.9% 11.9% 12.0% 14.3% 7.3% 21.9% 20.0% 10.2%
180d Yield Vol (bps) 8.9% 13.1% 11.4% 9.1% 13.3% 15.1% 15.3% 16.5% 12.6% 9.2% 13.6% 13.0% 12.7% 14.8% 16.3% 9.7% 18.8% 17.0% 11.8%Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 15.9% 21.2% 23.3% 19.6% 32.6% 30.2% 28.0% 29.0% 25.2% 16.2% 39.8% 32.9% 28.3% 43.6% 37.2% 18.8% 34.6% 33.9% 22.4%
Curr FX 0.82 1.16 1.32 1.04 0.89 0.69 14.90 12.69 0.86 0.13 0.52 0.08 0.07 0.50 0.12 0.68 0.43 0.29 0.0330d Yield Vol (bps) 10.1% 16.0% 11.7% 9.3% 15.2% 15.1% 17.1% 20.5% 16.1% 10.7% 14.4% 13.1% 14.5% 15.3% 17.0% 11.4% 23.2% 21.7% 12.9%
180d Yield Vol (bps) 10.2% 10.8% 10.7% 9.2% 12.8% 14.4% 12.3% 14.2% 13.2% 10.2% 13.6% 12.8% 13.3% 14.3% 15.1% 10.1% 15.6% 14.9% 11.0%Extreme Yield Vol (bps) 15.9% 11.4% 17.3% 19.7% 22.7% 23.6% 18.4% 21.5% 17.8% 16.4% 37.8% 29.7% 22.2% 37.0% 32.0% 14.8% 23.7% 31.3% 15.9%
FX Volatility Scorecard
Please note this is a historical example and not the current scorecard and will therefore not reflect current value
‘Curr Yield’ is the current yield to maturity on the contract; ‘30d Yield Vol’ is the observed volatility in the yields of the contract over the past 30 calendar days in bps; ‘180d Yield Vol’ is the observed volatility in the yields of the contract over the past 180 calendar days in bps; ‘Extreme Yield Vol’ is the 95% highest ‘30d Yield Vol’ observed over the past 10yrs in bps.
• Please see pages 16 and 17 for a guide to sizing and risk management• As with the P.F.M. Scorecard, an objective view of expected volatility is made as well as the following quantitative view
38
Example Trades
Example Trades Overview
39
Investment Strategies
Instruments
Relative• US curve trade (e.g. 5s vs. 30s)• Gilts vs. Bunds
Outright Long/Short• Buy/Sell 10 yr USTs• Buy/Sell 3m Euro EURIBOR
Directional• Short sterling call spread• Euro$ long call
Volatility• Short sterling butterfly spread• USTs 10y straddle/strangle• Short sterling call condor
Futures on:• Government Bonds: Gilts, Bunds, USTs• Short term interest rates: Short Sterling,
EURIBOR, Euro$)
Derivatives:• Puts and calls• Option structures, such as butterfly spreads,
strangles and condors
Bonds and Interest Rates
Relative/Directional• Buy AUDCAD, 1 month forward• Sell USDZAR, 1 month forward
Directional• Buy/Sell EURUSD put
Volatility• Buy/Sell USDJPY broken call fly
Spot and Forwards on:• Global and emerging market currencies
Derivatives:• OTC puts and calls• OTC option structures
Currency
Position Sizing Process
40
• Size of risk allocation dependant on market conditions:• Assess volatility, correlations and liquidity (e.g.
holidays, auctions or economic releases)• DV01 risk (bonds, interest rates) and % NAV (FX)
used to size and set stop profit/loss levels relative to expectations of market volatility and not just current market volatility
• Examples of typical risk budget sizing:
• Relative trade e.g. 5s/10s curve trade• 1bp / 2bp per bp of fund P+L for CARC / EARC
• Spread trade e.g. Gilts/Bunds• ½bp / 1bp per bp of fund P+L for CARC / EARC
• Outright long/short e.g. long 10y treasuries• ¼bp / ½bp per bp of fund P+L for CARC / EARC
• G10 currency trade e.g. EURCHF• 2% / 4% of NAV for CARC / EARC
• Emerging market currency trade e.g. USDZAR• ½% / 1% of NAV for CARC / EARC
• High conviction and low expected volatility/risk suggests typical sizing
• High expected volatility/risk requires reduced sizing
Position Sizing
ConvictionPotential Volatility
Contribution
Potential Correlations with Other Holdings
Liquidity
P.F.M. Scorecard
Volatility Scorecard
Market Assessment
Bonds / STIRs:# of Contracts
Currency: % NAV
Example 1: Gilts / Bunds Spread Trade Date: Oct-2010
41
• Investment view: UK government bonds expected to underperform relative to German government bonds i.e. UK yields will rise faster than German yields and the spread between them will widen
• Macro perspective: UK government bonds outperformed throughout Oct-2010 as a result of expectations of QE and government spending cuts (1); however, 3rd quarter GDP released on 26-Oct-2010 was stronger than expected, shocking the market (2)
• Flow perspective: UK government bonds had become overbought i.e. the price was too high and due for a correction; GDP shock saw longs panic, with follow through selling around gilt syndication (4)
• Price perspective: the spread between UK and German government bond futures contracts had broken a ‘double bottom’ around 520 ticks (3); the price action suggested an initial target for this breakout of 565 ticks with a stop loss at 480 ticks
• Trade idea: take long position in German government bonds and short position in UK government bonds
Investment View
• Highly liquid exchange-traded government bond futures
• UK 10 year government bond futures (“Gilts”)
• German 10 year government bond futures (“Bunds”)
• Trade strategy: purchase Bund contracts and sell short Gilt contracts (1:1 ratio)
Choice of Security
• Number of Bund and Gilt contracts traded represented risk budget (DV01) of 1bp for CARC
• i.e. 1bp move in the Gilt-Bund spread results in 1bp of fund performance
• Initial futures price spread target of 565 ticks (difference between price of 1 Bund contract and 1 Gilt contract)
• Stop loss of 480 ticks (based on price action)
Sizing and Risk Mgmt.
• Entered trade at spread of 535 ticks (represents difference between price of long Gilt future and price of short bund future)
• Closed half of trade at 595 ticks , profit of 60 ticks per contract (pre-hedging of gilt syndication)
• Closed remaining half of trade at 633 ticks , profit of 98 ticks per contract (pricing of gilt syndication)
Entry and Exit Points
Example 1: Chart of Bunds - Gilts Futures Price Spread
42
1
2
4
3
‘in’ at 533
‘out’ at 595
‘out’ at 633
1 – Spread driven tighter on UK QE and spending cuts
2 – UK GDP positive surprise
3 – Spread breaks out of double bottom at 520 ticks
4 – Gilt syndication
Example 2: EUR/CHF FX Trade Date: Jun-2011
43
• Amount of EURCHF traded represented 2% of CARC and 4% of EARC
• CARC: 1 percent change in EURCHF rate results in 2bps of fund performance
• EARC: 1 percent change in EURCHF rate results in 4bps of fund performance
• Stop loss of EURCHF = 1.23000 (based on price action)
Sizing and Risk Mgmt.
• Entered trade at EURCHF = 1.2112 (1m forward rate, spot rate = 1.2123)
• Closed half of trade 1 day later at EURCHF = 1.2006 (spot rate = 1.2015), percentage change: -0.87%
• Close remaining half of trade 2 days later at EURCHF = 1.1901 (spot rate = 1.1910), percentage change: -1.74%
Entry and Exit Points
• Investment view: Swiss Franc (CHF) to outperform relative to Euro (EUR) in the short term
• Macro perspective: worries were dominating markets about EU/IMF refusing to release next tranche of bail-out money to Greece, which would have resulted in a Greek sovereign default in July and extreme market volatility and stress
• Flow perspective: broad ‘risk-off’ sentiment in markets, CHF to benefit from flight-to-quality flows, particularly with month- and quarter-end approaching
• Price perspective: price action suggested a long term trend of CHF strength vs. EUR, USD and GBP
• Trade idea: take long position in Swiss Francs vs. short position in Euros
Investment View
• 1 month EURCHF FX forward
• Trade strategy: sell EURCHF (long CHF, short EUR)
Choice of Security
Example 2: Chart of Intraday EUR/CHF Exchange Rate
44
‘in’ at 1.2112 (spot rate = 1.2123)
Source: Bloomberg
‘out’ at 1.2006 (spot rate = 1.2015)
‘out’ at 1.1901(spot rate = 1.1910)
45
Further Information
thinkFolio – Portfolio Management System
46
• thinkFolio is a simple, intuitive and sophisticated portfolio modelling and trade management system designed specifically for bonds and currency management
thinkFolio – Portfolio Management System
47Source: www.thinkfolio.com
Linedata Beauchamp – Hedge Fund Accounting System
48Source: www.linedata.com
49
Contact Us
Please contact us if you have any general questions or would like to discuss any of our strategies
RWC Partners Ltd
60 Petty France
London
SW1H 9EU
Tel: +44 20 7227 6000
Fax: +44 20 7227 6003
Email: [email protected]
50
Risk Warnings & Disclaimers
This document contains information relating to RWC Partners Limited and RWC Asset Management LLP (collectively, “RWC Partners”), each of which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”), and services provided by them and may also contain information relating to certain products managed or advised by RWC Partners (“RWC Funds”).
RWC Partners may act as investment manager or adviser, or otherwise provide services, to more than one product pursuing a similar investment strategy or focus to the product detailed in this document. RWC Partners seeks to minimise any conflicts of interest, and endeavours to act at all times in accordance with its legal and regulatory obligations as well as its own policies and codes of conduct.
The services provided by RWC Partners are available only for and this document is directed only at, persons that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under rules of the FSA. It is not intended for distribution to and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client.
In addition, although certain sub-funds of RWC Funds SICAV are recognised schemes for the purposes of Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”), all other RWC Funds are unregulated collective investment schemes for the purposes the FSMA, the promotion of which either in or from the United Kingdom is restricted by law. Accordingly, this document is issued and approved by RWC Partners Limited for communication by RWC Partners only to, and is directed only at, persons reasonably believed by it to be of a kind to whom it may communicate financial promotions relating to unregulated collective investment schemes by virtue of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001, as amended (the “Order”), or the Conduct of Business Rules of the FSA. Such persons include: (i) persons outside the United Kingdom; (ii) persons having professional experience of participating in unregulated collective investment schemes; and (iii) high net worth bodies corporate, partnerships, unincorporated associations, trusts, etc. falling within Article 22 of the Order. Any unregulated collective investment schemes described herein are available only to such persons, and persons of any other description may not rely on the information in this document.
Where this document is received outside the United Kingdom, it is the responsibility of every person reading this document to satisfy himself as to the full observance of the laws of any relevant country, including obtaining any government or other consent which may be required or observing any other formality which needs to be observed in that country. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Interests in RWC Funds are available only in jurisdictions where their promotion and sale are permitted.
No person receiving this document may further distribute it, or copies of it, to any other person or publish any of its contents, in whole or in part, for any purpose.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in it is subject to updating, completion, modification and amendment. RWC Partners does not accept any liability (whether direct or indirect) arising from the reliance on or other use of the information contained in it. The information set out in this document is to the reasonable belief of RWC Partners, reliable and accurate at the date hereof, but is subject to change without notice. In producing this document, RWC Partners may have relied on information obtained from third parties and no representation or guarantee is made hereby with respect to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Performance figures and data analysis within this document are shown and calculated net of fees and expenses and represent the reinvestment of dividends and income. Market index information shown within this document is included to show relative market performance for the periods indicated and not as standards of comparison. Such broadly based indices are unmanaged and differ in numerous respects from the portfolio composition of RWC Funds.
This document does not constitute offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction of or to acquire interests in any RWC Fund. Investment in any RWC Fund should be considered high risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and may not be repeated. The value of investments in RWC Funds and the income from them may fall as well as rise and may be subject to sudden and substantial falls. Changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of such investments to fluctuate. An investor may not be able to get back the amount invested and the loss on realisation may be very high and could result in a substantial or complete loss of the investment. In addition, an investor who realises their investment in RWC Funds after a short period may not realise the amount originally invested as a result of charges made on the issue and/or redemption of such investment. The value of such interests for the purposes of purchases may differ from their value for the purpose of redemptions. No representations or warranties of any kind are intended or should be inferred with respect to the economic return from, or the tax consequences of, an investment in RWC Funds. Current tax levels and reliefs may change. Depending on individual circumstances, this may affect investment returns. There is no guarantee that the securities referred to in this document will be held by RWC Funds in the future. Nothing in this document constitutes advice on the merits of buying or selling a particular investment. This document does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This document expresses no views as to the suitability or appropriateness of the RWC Funds or any other investments described herein to the individual circumstances of any recipient. Potential investors in the RWC Funds should refer to the latest relevant Full Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus and latest Annual and Interim Reports for more information.
A United Kingdom investor may not have the right (otherwise provided under the FSA Handbook of Rules and Guidance) to cancel any agreement constituted by acceptance by or on behalf of an RWC Fund of an application for interests in an RWC Fund. In addition, most if not all of the protections provided by the United Kingdom regulatory structure will not apply to investments in an RWC Fund. Shareholders in an RWC Fund will not receive compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme in the United Kingdom in the event that the fund is unable or likely to be unable to satisfy claims against it.
This document is issued by RWC Partners Limited, a company registered in England and Wales (No. 03517613) with its registered address at 60 Petty France, London SW1H 9EU.