RWE Generation SE –Tackling the challenges ahead
Essen, 12 February 2014
Dr. Frank WeigandChief Financial OfficerRWE Generation SE
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Forward Looking Statement
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US federal securities laws.Especially all of the following statements:> Projections of revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure or other financial items;> Statements of plans or objectives for future operations or of future competitive position;> Expectations of future economic performance; and> Statements of assumptions underlying several of the foregoing types of statementsare forward-looking statements. Also words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “may”, “will”, “expect”, “plan”, “project” “should” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements reflect the judgement of RWE’s management based on factors currently known to it. No assurances can be given that these forward-looking statements will prove accurate and correct, or that anticipated, projected future results will be achieved. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, changes in general economic and social environment, business, political and legal conditions, fluctuating currency exchange rates and interest rates, price and sales risks associated with a market environment in the throes of deregulation and subjectto intense competition, changes in the price and availability of raw materials, risks associated with energy trading (e.g. risks of loss inthe case of unexpected, extreme market price fluctuations and credit risks resulting in the event that trading partners do not meet their contractual obligations), actions by competitors, application of new or changed accounting standards or other government agency regulations, changes in, or the failure to comply with, laws or regulations, particularly those affecting the environment and water quality (e.g. introduction of a price regulation system for the use of power grid, creating a regulation agency for electricity and gas or introductionof trading in greenhouse gas emissions), changing governmental policies and regulatory actions with respect to the acquisition, disposal, depreciation and amortisation of assets and facilities, operation and construction of plant facilities, production disruption or interruptiondue to accidents or other unforeseen events, delays in the construction of facilities, the inability to obtain or to obtain on acceptable terms necessary regulatory approvals regarding future transactions, the inability to integrate successfully new companies within the RWE Group to realise synergies from such integration and finally potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations and potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the dateon which it is made. RWE neither intends to nor assumes any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. For additional information regarding risks, investors are referred to RWE’s latest annual report and to other most recent reports filed with Frankfurt Stock Exchange and to all additional information published on RWE's Internet Web site.
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EindhovenHelmondBergen op Zoom
IneosMoerdijk s-Hertogenbosch
Claus
Amer
Swentibold
IbbenbürenEmsland
Enschede
EricaGreat Yarmouth
KlazienaveenLittle BarfordPembroke
Staythorpe
Aberthaw
Matra
Biblis
Gundremmingen
Eemshaven
Ensdorf
BochumDortmund
Gersteinwerk
Goldenberg
Dormagen
Niederaußem
Fabrik Berrenrath
Fabrik Fortuna-Nord
Fabrik Frechen
FrimmersdorfNeurath
BergkamenDatteln
HerneKnepperScholvenVoerde
Walsum
Westfalen
Huckingen
GK West
Mannheim
Plomin
Saar-Energie
Weisweiler
Lignite Hard coal Gas
Fawley
Mülheim-Kärlich
Nuclear
Littlebrook
Oil
Portfolio in 2012(100 % = c. 48 GW)
Fuel type(%)
Split by country
(%)
RWE power plants in Europe
TilburyDidcot
Hydro
Vianden
Schluchsee
Biomass
Herdecke
Cuijk
Since 1 January 2013 RWE’s conventionalelectricity generation is under one roof
6027
101
24
2530
7
55
4
* Under the responsibility of RWE East
*
*
Denizli
C. 50 plants, c. 18,000 employees
LigniteHard coalGasNuclearOilHydroBiomass
Germany
UK
Benelux
Turkey
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Mid-term earnings perspective of Conventional Power Generation
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.52012 2013 m-t-m2012
Operating result in € bn
CO2
Outright position
Volumes
3.3
CDS/CSS
Free allocation of c. 120 mt of CO2 certificates in 2012: ~€1.2 bn
Impact from decline inrealised outright power pricefrom €55/MWh to ~€37/MWh
Mainly shut down of 150 MWlignite units and Tilbury
OthersEfficiencies2012-2017
Mark-to-market21
1 Others: e.g. compensation payments for construction delays in 2012; changes in the regulatory framework (e.g. biomass NL); increase in depreciation
2 Mark-to-market as of November 2013 at market prices of around €37/MWh for German baseload forwards
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> Current market situation leads to severe earnings pressure despite significant efficiency improvements
> At current market conditions, approx. 1/3 of our power plants show a negative con-tribution to operating result and between 20% and 30% is free cash flow negative
> Old gas fired power plants are under most pressure but even some new state ofthe art gas plants are cash flow negative
> Older hard coal plants are under pressure mid-term due to lack of flexibility
OR2 > WACC
OR > 0
FCF2 > 0
c. > 50% – 60%
c. > 60% – 70%
c. > 70% – 80%
Significant pressure on our generation portfolio
1 Rough profitability analysis for 2013 to 2015 in % of installed capacity of RWE‘s conventional generation portfolio (economic stake)in Germany, UK and NL (average c. 44 GW) based on market parameters as of January 2013.
2 OR = operating result; WACC = weighted average cost of capital pre tax; FCF = Free cash flow = Revenue – Cash costs
Profitability of RWE’s conventional generation portfolio1
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Internal focus on cost reduction and portfolio optimisation and external focus on development of the market model
What are we doing about that?
> Operational: Cash Improvements through efficiencies> Structural: Portfolio-Optimisation
Internally
> Interaction with stakeholders to further develop market models– Security of supply– Climate protection and sustainability– Affordability of electricity
Externally
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Efficiency programme “Neo” covers all areas of RWE Generation via dedicated projects
DE NL UK Parti-cipa-tions
Hard Coal & Gas
Nuclear Lignite Hydro RWE Tech-nology
Mana-gement
& Support
CAO1
External spend
Technical Functions
1 CAO - Commercial Asset Optimisation
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¾ of target already specified by ideas / measures
Overall target
to be specified by
concrete measures
Already specified by ideas / measures
At least 80 % to be effective in
operating result~ 75%
~ 25%100% = high
3 digit €m
1 DoI = Degree of Implementation
DoI1 logic applies
Cash improvement target
8
Cash improvement measures will ramp-up until end of 2016, with full financial effect in 2017
20-30%
50-60%
~ 90%100%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Cash improvement target
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Synergy and restructuring potential is targeted in project “NEO” across all areas of the generation business
> Improvement of front to back end processes in fuel management> Active ageing management for power plants
Nuclear
> Further reduction of start-up time and costs> Optimisation of hard-coal transportation cost
> Improvement of technical processes in plants, mines and refining> Reorganisation of overhauls and services through out lignite system
Lignite
> Increase of production by ecological and technical improvements> Streamline organisation by realising internal and external synergies
Hydro
> Alignment of resources to predicted demand> Integration of Management Support functions into RWE Generation
RWE Technology
> Elimination or service level reduction of non crucial activities> Optimisation of processes and streamlining of the organisation
Management & Support Functions
> Optimisation of processes / structure> Integration of activities in Germany and NL / Reduction of IT complexity
Commercial Asset Optimisation
> Switch to cheaper supplier (e.g. to non-OEM-supplier) > Standardisation / harmonisation of product requirements
External Spend
Hard Coal & Gas
> Tailored technical co-operations across plant portfolio> Introduction of “Competence Heads” for technical components
Technical Functions
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Decision on capacity measures
Measure Plant MW1 Fuel Location Date
Decom-missioning
Amer 8 610 Hard coal NL Q1-20162
Long-term mothballing
Moerdijk 2 430 Gas NL Q4-2013
Gersteinwerk F 355 Gas – steam turbine DE Q3-2013
Gersteinwerk G 355 Gas – steam turbine DE Q2-2014
Weisweiler H 270 Topping gas turbine3 DE Q3-2013
Weisweiler G 270 Topping gas turbine3 DE Q3-2013
2 mid-size units 85 Gas NL Q1-2013
Summer mothballing
Emsland B 360 Gas – steam turbine DE Q2-2014
Emsland C 360 Gas – steam turbine DE Q2-2014
Terminationof 3 contracts
Confidential 1,170 Hard coal DE Q4-2013 –Q4-2014
Total 4,265 MW1 Net nominal capacity | 2 Depending on the final decision on the Dutch “Energieakkoord”, with a decision expected by the end of August 2013 | 3 At a lignite plant
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Development of the electricity market model under the principle of one goal - one instrument
Non-discriminatory system to reward availability of power generation capacity
Market integration of renewable energy; reform of the Renewable Energy Act
Goal: Security of supply Goal: Affordable electricity
Emissions trading system with a long-term goal to reduce CO2 emissions
Goal: Climate protection
RWE AG PAGE 1
German energy politics
12/02/2014
Essen, 12 February 2014
Dr. Peter HeinacherHead of Corporate AffairsRWE AG
RWE AG PAGE 2
New cabinet‘s agenda compiled at Mesebergconclave
12/02/2014
The new cabinet’s conclave at Meseberg Castle (21 Jan. 14)
Picture: Bundesregierung
Cabinet’s energy agenda
Renewables Act
Capacity Mechanism
Climate Action
RWE AG PAGE 3
Key protagonists
12/02/2014
Sigmar Gabriel Rainer Baake
Source: A. Müseler Source: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
RWE AG PAGE 4
Pressure from Brussels on German energypolitics
12/02/2014
J. Almunia
Renewables support likely to be state aid but in line with Com’s 2008 guidelines
Exemptions for the energy intensive industry may be considered state aid not in line with Com’s 2008 guidelines
DG competition opened inquiry into German Renewables Act 2012 on 18 Dec. 2013
RWE AG PAGE 5
Wind onshore: 2,500 MW/a cap, automatic digression of FIT; locational differentiation
Wind offshore: 6.5 GW target until 2020, digression of FIT in 2018/19 PV: 2,500 MW/a cap, automatic digression of FIT Biomass: 100 MW/a cap, automatic digression of FIT
Renewables Act heading for the right directionTo be finalized by August 2014!
12/02/2014
Support
Mandatory direct marketing for new installations as of 2014 (500 kW and more), 2016 (250 kW and more), 2017 (100 kW and more)
Default buyer General auctioning of renewables support as of 2017
Market
Review of exemptions from renewables surcharge for energy intensive industry according to EU state aid regulation
90% renewables surcharge for new auto-generators (70% for CHP and renewables)
5,28 ct/kWh allowance for existing auto-generators
Cost allocation
RWE AG PAGE 6
The Renewables Act channels green value added into the States (“Länder”)
12/02/2014
Negative net total
Positive net total
Net totals of EEG-payments by the states (2012)
Source: BDEW
RWE AG PAGE 7
Capacity mechanism will be thenext no. 1 task
12/02/2014
Government program acknowledges the necessity of a capacity mechanism
Meseberg conclave confirmed this view
Four competing concepts for capacity mechanisms
Power plant reserve or
enhanced balancing market
Decentralized capacity market
Centralized capacity market
Centralized, discriminatory
capacity market
e.g.BNetzA
Bundeskartellamt
BDEWVKU
France
EWIUK
Öko-InsitutAgora
RWE AG PAGE 8
Climate action plan prior to Paris 2015
B. Hendricks
Government program states that national climate action will be shaped in the light of the Paris 2015 results
Nevertheless, Environmental Ministry seems to be determined to table a national action plan before
Yet unclear how binding a possible Climate action plan will be in a legal perspective
Ministry of Environment may table a Climate Action Plan
12/02/2014
RWE AG PAGE 9
Back up
12/02/2014
RWE AG PAGE 10
RWE is 3rd in the EU in terms of gas-fired power plants, in Germany we are number one
RWE and big European utilities1: Gas capacity in the EU and Germany 2012 (GW)
EnBW 1.2
Centrica 3.7
EdP 3.9
Vattenfall 4.4
Iberdrola 8.3
EDF 13.0
Enel 14.3
RWE 15.6
Eon 19.5
GDF 25.3
1 including customer plants and participations, e.g. enviaM, also including temporarily mothballed capacityMost important sources (for separation of gas-fired capacity sometimes more sources necessary)RWE: Facts & Figures und Annual Report 2012Eon: Annual Report 2012, Facts & Figures March 2013GDF Suez: Asset Table 2012EDF: Facts & Figures 2012, Analyst Fact Pack 2012, Platts Power Plant Database 2010ENEL: Presentation Results 2012, Plan 2013-2017, Website Endesa, ENEL List of thermal Power Plants in ItalienEnBW: Annual Report 2012Vattenfall: Info package 2012, Website Power Plant List, BNetzA Power Plant List (DE)Iberdrola: Annual Report 2012, Website Iberdrola (Interactive analysis)
Gas capacity (partly dual fuel)Label
5.2
0.2
EnBW 1.2
GDF Suez
Vattenfall 1.7
Eon 4.7
RWE
12/02/2014
RWE AG PAGE 1112/02/2014
Company ranking for pump storage capacityconnected to the German grid
2.793
1.755
947
751
289
220
138
127
99
2.119
Vattenfall
RWE
EnBW
E.ON
Voralberger Illwerke
Tiroler Wasserkraft
Statkraft
markE
GDF SUEZ
Stadtwerke München
Turbine power
Figures in MW
,
,
,
RWE AG PAGE 12
1
1
2
3
7
E.ON
Steag
EnBW
RWE
Vattenfall
Ranking of > 100 MWel CHP plant operators in Germany
Figures in GWth
12/02/2014
RWE AG PAGE 13
0 500 1.000 1.500
EDFIberdrola
SWMEnBW
StatkraftStatoil
CentricaRWESSE
E.ONVattenfall
DONG
With ca. 1,000 MW installed capacity by 2015, we will be one of the leading offshore operators
Strong position in competitor comparison (Capacity in MW)*
* Source: RWE Innogy internal analysis - Offshore competitor database.
5
3
In operation
Under construction
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