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Population pharmacokinetics and dosing regimen optimisation of tacrolimus in Chinese pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation patients Abstract 1. Several tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients have been set up to recommend an optimal dosage schedule. However, the PPK model of Chinese pediatric HSCT patients has not been reported. The study is to investigate whether published PPK models of HSCT patients can be used to simulate Chinese pediatric HSCT patients and establish the tacrolimus PPK model of 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2
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Page 1: s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com  · Web viewdosing regimens in children with HSCT. K. eywords: population pharmacokinetics, tacrolimus, Chinese pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation,

Population pharmacokinetics and dosing regimen optimisation of

tacrolimus in Chinese pediatric hematopoietic stem cell

transplantation patients

Abstract

1. Several tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models in hematopoietic

stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients have been set up to recommend an

optimal dosage schedule. However, the PPK model of Chinese pediatric HSCT

patients has not been reported. The study is to investigate whether published PPK

models of HSCT patients can be used to simulate Chinese pediatric HSCT patients

and establish the tacrolimus PPK model of Chinese pediatric HSCT patients.

2. Published PPK models were collected from the literature and assessed using

Chinese pediatric HSCT patients via the individual prediction error method. The

establishment of tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients were

characterized with nonlinear mixed-effects modeling (NONMEM).

3. Three published HSCT PPK models were identified, two of which could be applied

to our external dataset. However, these models were dissatisfactory in terms of

individual prediction error and hence, inadequate for extrapolation. Finally, a new

tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients was established. Based

on the simulation results of our model, new initial dosage suggestions were

recommendated. In conclusion, the tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese pediatric

HSCT patients was presented and the model could be used to predict individualized

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dosing regimens in children with HSCT.

Keywords: population pharmacokinetics, tacrolimus, Chinese pediatric hematopoietic

stem cell transplantation, real world study, ursodeoxycholic acid

Introduction

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is increasingly used to treat many

malignant and nonmalignant diseases (Jacobson et al., 2001). However, post-

transplant immunologic complications, for example, acute and chronic graft-versus-

host disease (GVHD), are barriers to successful transplantation. Thus, it is critical to

reduce the risk of GVHD. Fortunately, tacrolimus has been used as an drug therapy

for the prevention of GVHD following HSCT (Fay et al., 1995; Nash et al., 1995; Fay

et al., 1996; Nash et al., 1996; Przepiorka et al., 1996; Uberti et al., 1997; Nash et al.,

2000).

However, tacrolimus has a narrow therapeutic range (Venkataramanan et al.,

1995), high concentrations seem to be associated with toxicity and lower

concentrations are connected with an increased risk of acute rejection episodes (Staatz

and Tett, 2004; Passey et al., 2011). Additionally, tacrolimus has considerable inter-

and intra-individual variabilities in pharmacokinetics. Tacrolimus, given orally is

absorbed incompletely with a lag time of average 0.4 h (range 0-2 h) and absorption

rates spanning from very fast to slow (Jusko et al., 1995a). In spite of such variation,

the trough concentrations of tacrolimus correlate well with the area under the

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concentration-time curve (AUC) (Grevel and Kahan, 1991; Jusko et al., 1995a; Jusko

et al., 1995b; Venkataramanan et al., 1995).

Population pharmacokinetics (PPK) can collect pharmacokinetic information

from sparse data in patients (Marsot et al., 2017). What is more, PPK analysis could

distinguish inter- and intra-individual variabilities (Vadcharavivad et al., 2016; Wang

et al., 2018). Hence, PPK has greater statistical power to ascertain the effects of

multiple factors on pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus compared to traditional

pharmacokinetic method (Vadcharavivad et al., 2016; Wang et al., 2018), and makes it

possible to design an optimal dosage regimen.

Several tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models in HSCT have

been established to design an optimal dose schedule (Wallin et al., 2009; Xue et al.,

2009). However, the PPK model of Chinese pediatric HSCT patients has not been

reported. Therefore, it is vital to investigate whether published PPK models of HSCT

patients can be used to simulate Chinese pediatric HSCT patients and to establish

tacrolimus PPK model of Chinese pediatric HSCT patients and formulate an ideal

dose regimen for personalized medicine.

Materials and method

Review of published PPK models

Literatures were collected with the PubMed, Web of Sci, CNKI and Wanfang

databases up to 9 January 2019. The included criteria for publications were as

follows: (I) studies involving HSCT patients with tacrolimus treatment and (II)

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studies involving PPK modeling.

Patients and data collection

Chinese pediatric HSCT patients between June 2015 and June 2018 from Children’s

Hospital of Fudan University were retrospectively analyzed. Drug concentration data

and relevant clinical information were collected from therapeutic drug monitoring

(TDM) records and medical records, respectively. The study was approved by the

Research Ethics Committee of Children’s Hospital of Fudan University.

Information extracted from the medical records included gender, age, weight,

post transplant day (POD), albumin (ALB), globulin (GLB), alanine transaminase

(ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), creatinine (Cr), Urea (Ur), total protein (TP),

total bile acid (TBA), direct bilirubin (DBIL), total bilibrubin (TBIL), hematocrit

(HCT), hemoglobin (HGB), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular

hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) and concomitant drugs.

Dosing and sampling schedule

Tacrolimus was orally administered and the starting dosage was 0.12 mg/kg/day

splited into two doses. The drug concentration of tacrolimus was measured twice

weekly or more frequently if required (e.g., in case of suspicion of intolerance or

adverse events) by therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Tacrolimus dose was later

adjusted according to the clinical efficacy and adverse effect as well as its trough

concentration in TDM. All of the blood concentrations were collected before next

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administration and the tacrolimus concentrations used in the current research were

trough concentrations.

Generally, the target trough concentrations range cited was 10-20 ng/ml. The

upper limit of 20 ng/ml comes from the analysis correlating toxicity with higher blood

levels (Wingard et al., 1998; Przepiorka et al., 1999b). The lower limit of 10 ng/ml

was due to the fact that there is less published experience using lower target levels

(Przepiorka et al., 1999a). A number of centers have used an upper level of 15 ng/ml,

which allowed for an interval of 5 ng/ml before getting into the range of increased

risk of nephrotox-icity (Przepiorka et al., 1999a). Therefore, in the present study, the

target therapeutic range is 10-15ng/ml.

Analytical method

Blood concentrations of tacrolimus were measured by Emit® 2000 Tacrolimus Assay

(Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Inc, Newark, US). Several different measurement

techniques were used in the included studies and there were system deviations among

the different analysis methods (Agrawal et al., 2014). For adjusting the differences,

the tacrolimus concentrations of the external data were converted to their

corresponding equivalents according to previously published bioassay methodology

with the following formulae (Hesse et al., 2002), Equation 1:

MEIA=(EMIT−0.05)/0.96 (1)

where EMIT was the concentration of the external data measured via the enzyme

multiplied immunoassay technique and MEIA was the after-conversion equivalent

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analyzed using the microparticle enzyme immunoassay.

Evaluation of external predictiveness

The external evaluation was carried out by a non-linear mixed-effects modeling

(NONMEM) software (edition 7, ICON Development Solutions, Ellicott City, MD,

USA). The results were performed with the R package (version 3.4.2, http://www.r-

project.org). PPK models from published papers were rebuilt using parameters set

based on the published values. Given the sparse PK sampling, maximum a posterior

(MAP) Bayesian was used to assess the influence of observations on model

predictability (Brooks et al., 2016; Zhao et al., 2016). The predictive performances of

these PPK models with the external data were evaluated using the individual

prediction error method, which compared differences between observations with

individual predictions, Equation 2:

IPE = (IP−OB)/OB×100% (2)

where IPE was individual prediction error, IP represented the individual predicted

concentration and OB was the observation.

Establishment of a new model

Data were analyzed with NONMEM. The first-order conditional estimation method

with interaction (FOCE-I) option was used to estimate pharmacokinetic (PK)

parameters and their variability. One-compartment model with first-order elimination

was used to describe the absorption phase because all the tacrolimus concentrations in

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the study were trough concentration. The PK parameters were comprised of apparent

oral clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). The absorption rate

constant (Ka) of the model was fixed to 4.48h-1 through literature study (Yang et al.,

2015; Wang et al., 2018).

Random effect model

Inter-individual variability was evaluated by Equation 3:

θi =θ×exp (ηi) (3)

where θi was the individual parameter value, θ was the typical population value of

the pharmacokinetic parameter. ηi was symmetrical distribution, which was zero-

mean chance variables with variance term.

Random residual variability was evaluated using Equation 4:

OB=IP×(1+ε1)+ε2 (4)

where OB was the observation, IP represented the individual predicted

concentration. εn represented symmetrical distribution, which was zero-mean chance

variables with a variance.

Covariate model

The correlation between PK parameters and weight was described using Equation 5:

Pi=Pstd×(WTi /WTstd) PWR (5)

Pi represented the ith individual PK parameter, WTi represented the ith individual

weight. WTstd was the standard weight of 70 kg. Pstd represented the typical individual

parameter, whose weight was WTstd. PWR represented the allometric coefficient: 0.75

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for the CL/F and 1 for the V/F (Anderson and Holford, 2008).

The correlation between PK parameters and continuous covariates and categorical

covariates was described using Equations 6 and 7, respectively.

Pi=T(P)×(Covi /Covmedian)θ (6)

Pi=T(P)×(1+θ×Covi) (7)

where Pi was the individual parameter value, T(P) was the typical individual

parameter value. θ was the parameter to be estimated and Covi was the covariate of

the ith individual. Covmedian was the population median for the covariate.

The potential covariates included gender, age, weight, POD, ALB, GLB, ALT,

AST, Cr, Ur, TP, TBA, DBIL, TBIL, HCT, HGB, MCH, MCHC and concomitant

drugs. The covariate model was established in a stepwise way (Yang et al., 2015). To

compare hierarchical models, a likelihood ratio test was adopted. The change in the

objective function values (OFV) caused by the inclusion of a covariate is proportional

to twice the negative log likelihood of the data and approximates a chi-square

distribution. In the univariate analysis, a decrease in the OFV > 3.84 (P < 0.05, degree

of freedom = 1) was used as a criterion for inclusion of the covariate in the base

model. The significant covariate-parameter relationships were reserved in the model.

When a full regression model was built, the model was further testified by dropping

the covariate from each parameter one at a time to acquire the final model. An

increase in the OFV > 6.64 (P < 0.01, degree of freedom = 1) was used as a criterion

for retaining significant covariate-parameter relationships in the model.

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Model validation

An internal validation method of bootstrap was used for assessing the stability and

reliability of the final parameters (Jolling et al., 2005; Brendel et al., 2007). Bootstrap

was produced by repeated random sampling with replacement from the original data.

This procedure was performed with the software package Wings for NONMEM and

repeated 1000 times with different random draws. The medians and 2.5-97.5%

percentiles of the bootstrap result were compared to the final PK parameter estimates.

Visual inspection of routine diagnostic plots, histogram, QQ figures and prediction-

corrected visual predictive check plots were used to evaluate the new model.

Simulation of tacrolimus dosing regimens

The parameter estimates obtained from the final model were used to perform the

initial dosing regimen simulations. The influence of the covariate on the probability to

achieve the target concentration was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations

based on the established model. We estimated the probability to achieve both 10-

15ng/ml based on the established model without drug combination. 1000 virtual

patients were simulated in each of the seven weight groups (5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5

and 20 kg) and for nine dosing regimens (0.5mg/0.5mg q24h, 1.0mg/0.5mg q24h,

1.0mg/1.0mg q24h, 1.5mg/1.0mg q24h, 1.5mg/1.5mg q24h, 2.0mg/1.5mg q24h,

2.0mg/2.0mg q24h, 2.5mg/2.0mg q24h, 2.5mg/2.5mg q24h).

Result

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Published PPK models

Three studies were included, finally (Figure 1 and Table 1). One study (Wallin et al.,

2009) focused on children and the other two studies (Jacobson et al., 2001; Xue et al.,

2009) had a wide range of ages from children to adult. Because the model from

Jacobson et al (Jacobson et al., 2001) is incomplete (lack of information on apparent

volume of distribution), only two models could be applied to our external dataset.

Evaluation of external predictiveness

The data obtained from 17 Chinese pediatric HSCT patients were available. Patient

characteristics and drug combination were summarized in Table 2 and Table 3,

respectively. As shown in Figure 2, the individual prediction errors obtained from the

two models were not satisfactory and it was required to produce a new model to apply

to Chinese pediatric HSCT patients.

Production of the new model and model evaluation

A one-compartment model with first absorption and elimination best fitted the data.

The PK parameters of tacrolimus, CL/F and V/F, were estimated by NONMEM. The

final covariate models were as follows:

CL/F = 15.4 × (WT/70)0.75 × (1+URSO×0.964) (8)

V/F = 6250 × (WT/70) (9)

where CL/F was apparent oral clearance, V/F was apparent volume of distribution,

WT and URSO were weight and ursodeoxycholic acid, respectively. Figure 3 showed

the covariate relationships.

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Validation of new model

In Figure S1, visual inspection of routine diagnostic plots were shown. In Table 4,

parameter estimates of final model and bootstrap validation were shown. The median

values of the parameter estimate from bootstraps were close to the respective values

from the final population model, and the absolute value of all bias were < 15%,

showing that the estimates for the PK parameters in the final population model were

accurate, and the model was reliable. In Figure S2, the distribution of weighted

residuals for the final model was shown. In Figure S3, the prediction-corrected visual

predictive check plot of the final model was shown. Most of the observed

concentrations are within the 95% prediction intervals from the simulation data,

revealing that the prediction-corrected concentrations were well predicted by the final

model.

Simulation of weight effect at different dose

The predicted median (2.5-97.5%) and probability to achieve the target concentration

with respect to body weight for different dosing regimens were were shown in Table

5. Based on the simulation results of our model, new initial dosage suggestions were

recommendated. The 1.0mg/0.5mg q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a

weight of 5kg; the 1.0mg/1.0mg q24h regimen is suitable for children with a weight

of 7.5kg; the 1.5mg/1.0mg q24h regimen is fit for children with a weight of 10kg; the

1.5mg/1.5mg q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 12.5kg; the

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2.0mg/1.5mg q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 15kg; the

2.5mg/2.0mg q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 17.5kg; the

2.5mg/2.5mg q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 20kg.

Discussion

Currently, different tacrolimus PPK models have been built in many populations

including renal transplant patients (Zhao et al., 2009; Benkali et al., 2010; Zuo et al.,

2013; Bergmann et al., 2014; Han et al., 2014; Andreu et al., 2015), liver transplant

patients (Wallin et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2012; Musuamba et al., 2014; Lu et al.,

2015; Yang et al., 2015; Zhu et al., 2015), and lung transplant patients (Monchaud et

al., 2012). However, only several tacrolimus PPK models in HSCT have been

established (Jacobson et al., 2001; Wallin et al., 2009; Xue et al., 2009) and the PPK

model of Chinese pediatric HSCT patients has not been reported. The study is to

investigate whether published PPK models of HSCT patients can be used to simulate

Chinese pediatric HSCT patients and establish the tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese

pediatric HSCT patients.

In our study, three published HSCT PPK models were identified, two of which

could be applied to our external dataset. However, these models were dissatisfactory

in terms of individual prediction error and hence, inadequate for extrapolation. In

Wallin et al study (Wallin et al., 2009), all patients aged from birth to 18 years who

underwent HSCT between 2002 and 2007 at Queen Silvia Children’s Hospital in

Gothenburg, Sweden, and received tacrolimus as initial prophylaxis against GVHD

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were eligible for inclusion in study. Pharmacokinetic, demographic, and other clinical

data were collected retrospectively from patient electronic medical records. However,

the patients were limited to Swede and the effect of concomitant medications is

unknown (Wallin et al., 2009). In Xue et al study (Xue et al., 2009), the age range

was 12-60 years, which was not fitted to our age group.

To explore the influence of demographic features, biological characteristics, and

concomitant medications on tacrolimus CL/F in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients, our

model was built. Our present study is the first report, to our knowledge, of a

population pharmacokinetics model of tacrolimus in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients

based on real world study. The typical values of CL/F and V/F in final tacrolimus

PPK model were 15.4L/h and 6250L. However, in Xue et al study (Xue et al., 2009).

The population typical values of tacrolimus CL and V were 12.1L/h and 686L,

respectively. In Wallin et al study (Wallin et al., 2009), Typical clearance was 106

mL/h/kg-0.75, typical distribution volume was 3.71 L/kg. This may partly explain the

possible mechanism for why our new PPK model differs from other models.

Furthermore, the database used to build models varied from study to study. It was

mainly referring to potential differences in areas of: patient eligibility based on

inclusion/exclusion criteria, patient's baseline disease status, use of concurrent-

medications, and potential differences in their treatment dose regimen and

demographic information. All of these may attribute to the inability of extrapolating

these models to describe the our dataset.

We also examined various covariates on different parameters and the following

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covariates were determined to be meaningful: weight and ursodeoxycholic acid were

included as significant covariates for CL/F, weight was for V/F. Many studies have

demonstrated a non-linear relationship between drug clearance and body weight in

pediatric patients, and it may be well described with allometric scaling using a

coefficient of 0.75 for clearance and 1 for volume (Holford, 1996; Anderson and

Holford, 2008; 2011). Body weight is the most important predictor of clearance and

volume in children with maturation of elimination processes (Anderson and Holford,

2011) and is also considered to be the primary factor determining clearance and

volume because of theory explaining the link between mass, function and structure

and the extensive support for this theory across many orders of magnitude of body

weight (Savage et al., 2008). Therefore, the factor for body weight for clearance may

be expected to scale to weight with a power 0.75 and a coefficient of 1 for volume

(Holford, 1996; Anderson and Holford, 2008; 2011). For ease of comparison with

other results, the body weight is usually standardized to a value of 70 kg (Anderson

and Holford, 2011). It is especially valuable to use a standard when reporting the

results of studies in children and neonates (Anderson and Holford, 2011). The major

differences between age groups of differing body weights require standardization to a

common size to make meaningful comparisons (Anderson and Holford, 2011). Even

if the age groups appear to be comparable, different studies may have substantial

differences in typical weights (Anderson and Holford, 2011). Interpretation of

parameter estimates is more convenient when comparing standard values (Anderson

and Holford, 2011). In addition, biliary elimination is the major excretion pathway for

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tacrolimus (Moller et al., 1999) and ursodeoxycholic acid can promote bile excretion,

increasing tacrolimus clearance.

Although the TDM was not originally designed to research the pharmacokinetics

of tacrolimus, the PPK method provides a powerful tool to extract useful information

from sparse drug concentrations (Thomson and Whiting, 1992) from traditional TDM.

Thus, PPK can promote to optimize the use for tacrolimus to realize satisfactory

therapeutic concentrations. Additionally, it is ethical suitable in studying pediatric

patients prohibited excessive blood sampling compared with traditional

pharmacokinetic studies (Kauffman and Kearns, 1992). Consequently, the tacrolimus

PPK model has clinical value in predicting pharmacokinetic process in individual

pediatric patients who has HSCT condition. In terms of model application, 1000

virtual patients were simulated in each of the seven weight groups and for nine dosing

regimens and new initial dosage suggestions were recommendated. Current starting

dosing recommendations for tacrolimus is based on weight and is fixed at 0.12

mg/kg/day, which is lacking of individualized treatment options. In our study, we

simulated more accurate individualized drug treatment for different body weights.

The 1.0mg/0.5mg q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 5kg; the

1.0mg/1.0mg q24h regimen is suitable for children with a weight of 7.5kg; the

1.5mg/1.0mg q24h regimen is fit for children with a weight of 10kg; the 1.5mg/1.5mg

q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 12.5kg; the 2.0mg/1.5mg

q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 15kg; the 2.5mg/2.0mg

q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 17.5kg; the 2.5mg/2.5mg

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q24h regimen is appropriate for children with a weight of 20kg.

The same as three published articles, there were limitations in our study. As for

HSCT patients pharmacogenomic consideration hasn’t been used in clinical, whether

the inclusion of genotyping in our model would better explain the variabilities of

tacrolimus in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients should be studied in future. In

addition, small group of patients, use of trough concentrations only instead of

intensive sampling were also limitations in our study.

In a word, the tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients was

established and the model could be used to predict individualized dosing regimens in

children with HSCT. A large external evaluation of our model will be conducted in

future studies.

Funding

This work was supported by the Clinical Pharmacy Key Specialty Construction

Project of Shanghai under Grant number YZ2017/5; the Young Medical Talents of

Wuxi under Grant number QNRC020; the Young Project of Wuxi Health and Family

Planning Research under Grant number Q201706; the Wuxi science and technology

development guidance plan (medical and health care) under Grant number

CSZON1744; the AOSAIKANG pharmaceutical foundation under Grant number

A201826.

Declaration of interest

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The authors report no declarations of interest. The authors alone are responsible for

the content and writing of this article.

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Figure legend

Figure 1. Overview of the strategy used in the literature search.

Figure 2. Box plots of individual prediction error.

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Individual prediction error, IPE (%)=(IP−OB)/OB×100%

IP: individual predicted concentration; OB: observation concentration.

Blue dashed line and red dashed lines are reference lines indicating IPE% of 0% and

± 30%, respectively.

Figure 3. The covariate relationships.

(A) apparent oral clearance (CL/F) vs. weight (WT)

(B) apparent oral clearance (CL/F) vs. ursodeoxycholic acid (URSO)

(C) apparent volume of distribution (V/F) vs. weight (WT)

Figure S1. Visual inspection of routine diagnostic plots.

(A) observations vs. population predictions (B) observations vs. individual predictions

(C) conditional weighted residuals (WRES) vs. population predictions (D) conditional

weighted residuals (WRES) vs. time after the start of therapy.

Figure S2. Distribution of weighted residuals for the final model.

(A) density vs. weighted residuals (B) quantiles of weighted residuals vs.quantiles of

normal

Figure S3. Prediction-corrected visual predictive check (VPC) for the final model.

The middle red solid line represents the median of the prediction-corrected

concentrations. The lower and upper red dashed lines are the 2.5th and 97.5th

percentiles of the prediction-corrected concentrations, respectively, representing the

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lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval of predicted values.

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