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SADC Course in Statistics
The normal distribution
(Session 08)
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Learning Objectives
At the end of this session you will be able to:
• describe the normal probability distribution
• state and interpret parameters associated with the normal distribution
• use a calculator and statistical tables to calculate normal probabilities
• appreciate the value of the normal distribution in practical situations
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The Normal Distribution• In the previous two sessions, you were
introduced to two discrete distributions, the Binomial and the Poisson.
• In this session, we introduce the Normal Distribution – one of the commonest distributions followed by a continuous random variable
• For example, heights of persons, their blood pressure, time taken for banana plants to grow, weights of animals, are likely to follow a normal distribution
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Example: Weights of maize cobs
Graph shows histogram of 100 maize cobs.
Data which follows the bell shape of this histogram are said to follow a normal distribution.
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Frequency definition of probabilityIn a histogram, the bar areas correspond to frequencies.
For example, there are 3 maize cobs with weight < 100 gms, and 19 maize cobs with weight < 120 gms.
Hence, using the frequency approach to probability, we can say that
Prob(X<120) = 19/100 = 0.019
The areas under the curve can be regarded as representing probabilities since the curve and edges of histogram would coincide for n=.
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Probability Distribution Function
The mathematical expression describing the form of the normal distribution is
f(x) = exp(–(x–)2/22)/(22)
0.4
0.2
0.0
f(x)
x
Two parameters associated with the normal distribution, its mean and variance 2.
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Properties of the Normal Distribution
• Total area under the curve is 1
• characterised by mean & variance: N(,2 )
• symmetric about mean ()
• 95% of observations lie within ± 2 of mean
0.4
0.2
0.0
f(x)
x
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The Standard Normal Distribution
This is a distribution with =0 and =1, shown below in comparison with N(0,2), =3.
-6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6
0.4 f(x)
0.2
x
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The Standard Normal DistributionThis is a distribution with =0 and =1.
Tables give probabilities associated with this distribution, i.e. for every value of a random variable Z which has a standard normal distribution, values of Pr(Z<z) are tabulated.
P
z 0
In graph on right, P=Pr(Z<z).
Symmetry means any area (prob) can be found.
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Calculating normal probabilitiesAny random variable, say X, having a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation , can be converted to a value (say z) from the standard normal distribution.
This is done using the formula
z = (X - ) /
The z values are called z-scores. The z scores can be used to compute probabilities associated with X.
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An exampleThe pulse rate (say X) of healthy individuals is expected to have a normal distribution with mean of 75 beats per minute and a standard deviation of 8. What is the chance that a randomly selected individual will have a pulse rate < 65?
We need to find Pr(X < 65)
i.e. Pr(X - 75 < 65 - 75)
= Pr[ (X – 75/8) < (-10/8) ]
= Pr(Z < -1.28) Pr(Z<-1.3) = 0.0968
(using tables of the standard normal distn)
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A practical applicationMalnutrition amongst children is generally measured by comparing their weight-for-age with that of a standard, age-specific reference distribution for well-nourished children.
A child’s weight-for-age is converted to a standardised normal score (an z-score), standardised to and of the reference distribution for the child’s gender and age.
Children whose z-score<-2 are regarded as being underweight.
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A Class Exercise
Similarly to the above, height-for-age is used as a measure of stunting again converted to a standardised z score (stunted if z-score<-2).
Suppose for example, the reference distribution for 32 months old girls has mean 91 cms with standard deviation 3.6 cms.
What is the probability that a randomly selected girl of 32 months will have height between 83.8 and 87.4 cms?
Graph below shows the area required. A class discussion will follow to get the answer.
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Depicting required probability as an area under the normal curve
2.986.940.914.878.83
Answer =
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Is a child stunted?
Suppose a 32 month old girl has height-for-age value = 82.1
Would you consider this child to be stunted?
Discuss this question with your neighbour and write down your answer below.
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Cumulative normal distribution
a x
In example above, the shaded area is 0.6,
the value of a from tables of the standard normal distribution is 0.726.
Cumulative distribution is given by the function
F(x) = P(X ≤a)
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ba
P(a<X<b) = F(b)-F(a) is the area under the cumulative normal curve between points a and b.
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Practical work follows …