Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 1

Risk Management in SailingRisk Management in Sailing

Prof. Paul H. Miller, D.Eng., P.E.Prof. Paul H. Miller, D.Eng., P.E.Naval Architecture ProgramNaval Architecture Program

United States Naval AcademyUnited States Naval Academy

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 2

GoalsGoals

1.1. To get sailors thinking about how To get sailors thinking about how risky sailing isrisky sailing is

2.2. To identify the major risk factors in To identify the major risk factors in sailingsailing

3.3. To assess risk and manage itTo assess risk and manage it

4.4. To think through a risk management To think through a risk management scenarioscenario

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 3

What is Bad Risk Management?What is Bad Risk Management?

• Letting something surprise you Letting something surprise you because you were not prepared!because you were not prepared!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 4

Another Bad Example!Another Bad Example!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 5

And Another!And Another!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 6

How Risky Is Sailing*?How Risky Is Sailing*?

• Riding in a car (30)Riding in a car (30)• SCUBA diving (2)SCUBA diving (2)• Flying in a small plane Flying in a small plane

or commercial aviation or commercial aviation (1 or 0.04)(1 or 0.04)

• Cheerleading (0.4)Cheerleading (0.4)• Canoeing (0.12)Canoeing (0.12)• Riding a bike (0.09)Riding a bike (0.09)• Riding a PWC (0.06)Riding a PWC (0.06)

• Walking to work (0.025)Walking to work (0.025)• Riding the Bus(0.02)Riding the Bus(0.02)• Riding a Ferry (0.01)Riding a Ferry (0.01)• Riding a Train (0.01)Riding a Train (0.01)• Riding a Horse (0.01)Riding a Horse (0.01)• Cabin motorboats (0.0002)Cabin motorboats (0.0002)

*All types, as reported in CDC and USCG statistics (2001-2002)•Sailing Risk is 0.03 fatalities per 100,000 participants

normalized to average hours of participation per participantSailing is less risky than… And is more risky than…

“Ocean Racing” is 0.35 (UK)Note: take these, like all, statistics with a grain of salt!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 7

Injuries to Fatalities RatioInjuries to Fatalities Ratio(requiring professional medical assistance)(requiring professional medical assistance)

• Football = 65,000 injuries/fatalityFootball = 65,000 injuries/fatality

• Golf = 33,000Golf = 33,000

• Sailing = 200Sailing = 200

• Caving/Rock Climbing = 16Caving/Rock Climbing = 16

• Aviation = 2Aviation = 2

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 8

What is “Risk”?What is “Risk”?

• It is clearly associated with both the It is clearly associated with both the likelihood of the event occurring,likelihood of the event occurring,

• And the severity of the consequenceAnd the severity of the consequence

Risk = Probability of Occurrence X

Cost of Event’s Occurrence

A simple example:A simple example:Which carries more risk?Which carries more risk?A broken batten or a broken rudder?A broken batten or a broken rudder?

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 9

The Supreme Court noted that,The Supreme Court noted that,““all activities have risk…all activities have risk…

safe does not mean the absence safe does not mean the absence of risk.”of risk.”

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 10

Current Risk PhilosophyCurrent Risk Philosophy

• If the fatality rate is greater than If the fatality rate is greater than 1/100,0001/100,000

• Or, the cost is greater than about $5,000Or, the cost is greater than about $5,000• Then Then insurance companiesinsurance companies believe it is believe it is

“risky” and require special policies or “risky” and require special policies or premiums.premiums.

• ““Society” has similar values, but yours Society” has similar values, but yours may be different!may be different!

• Sailing is a gray area!Sailing is a gray area!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 11

What is “Safety”?What is “Safety”?

• The Reduction of Risk by either The Reduction of Risk by either reducing the likelihood of occurrence reducing the likelihood of occurrence or the cost of consequence.or the cost of consequence.

• Examples:Examples:– Avoiding stormy locations (lower loads)Avoiding stormy locations (lower loads)– Redundancy (spares)Redundancy (spares)– Choosing the correct time to reefChoosing the correct time to reef– Inspecting your rigInspecting your rig

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 12

Everyday RiskEveryday Risk

• Skydiver?Skydiver?• Motorcycle rider?Motorcycle rider?• Smoker?Smoker?• Cell phone user?Cell phone user?• Cross the path of a Cross the path of a

black cat?black cat?“Too Cautious” “Too Risky”

Most Folks

Do you consider yourself a “risk taker”?The “attitude factor”!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 13

How Much Risk Will You (Personally!) How Much Risk Will You (Personally!) Accept?Accept?

Is this your acceptable level?

Or, is this?Risk

Risk Mitigators

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 14

Risk Mitigators in SailingRisk Mitigators in Sailing

• Boating EducationBoating Education

• Boating ExperienceBoating Experience

• Preparation (equipment condition Preparation (equipment condition and expertise)and expertise)

• AttitudeAttitude

Most mitigators focus on the crew, not the equipment as89% of recreational marine accidents are operator error!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 15

More USCG StatisticsMore USCG Statistics

Boating EducationBoating Education

• Boaters who took a boating education Boaters who took a boating education class in the last three years were 466 class in the last three years were 466 times less likely to be involved in an times less likely to be involved in an accident! accident!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 16

Boating ExperienceBoating Experience• Boaters with less than 100 hours Boaters with less than 100 hours

experience were twice as likely to have an experience were twice as likely to have an accident as those with 100-500 hours and accident as those with 100-500 hours and were 30,000 times more likely to have an were 30,000 times more likely to have an accident than those with greater than 500 accident than those with greater than 500 hours!hours!

• An average (US) boater accumulates about An average (US) boater accumulates about 240 hours per year. (MD is about 150 hours.) 240 hours per year. (MD is about 150 hours.)

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 17

The Big 5 Risks in SailingThe Big 5 Risks in SailingRequiring Medical AttentionRequiring Medical Attention

(USCG 2001)(USCG 2001)

1.1. Collision 62%Collision 62%

2.2. Grounding 9%Grounding 9%

3.3. Capsize 8%Capsize 8%

4.4. Fall Overboard 4%Fall Overboard 4%

5.5. Fire 4%Fire 4%

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 18

Four Steps to Managing RiskFour Steps to Managing Risk

1.1. Assess Overall RiskAssess Overall Risk

2.2. Assess Increased RiskAssess Increased Risk

3.3. Identify Risk vs RewardIdentify Risk vs Reward

4.4. Reduce or Accept RiskReduce or Accept Risk

Risk Benefit

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 19

Basic Sailing RiskBasic Sailing Risk

• A nice dayA nice day– Light to moderate windsLight to moderate winds– Water above 60 degreesWater above 60 degrees– Boat in good conditionBoat in good condition– Regular crewRegular crew– Local areaLocal area

• Equals LOW RISK!Equals LOW RISK!

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 20

Increased RisksIncreased Risks• Heavy WeatherHeavy Weather

• Crew (experience, familiarity with Crew (experience, familiarity with boat and each other, physical boat and each other, physical condition)condition)

• Equipment (have it, it works, and the Equipment (have it, it works, and the crew knows how to use it)crew knows how to use it)

• Racing (pushing the limit)Racing (pushing the limit)

• ““Get home-itis”Get home-itis”

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 21

Example Risk Management CaseExample Risk Management Case

Beer Can Race in Beer Can Race in Annapolis in AugustAnnapolis in August

• Winds ~6 kts, ~80 degWinds ~6 kts, ~80 deg• DoublehandedDoublehanded• TS warningTS warning• TS cell seen TS cell seen

approachingapproaching• PFDs put onPFDs put on

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 22

Example Risk Management CaseExample Risk Management Case

• Jib and mizzen dropped, Jib and mizzen dropped, main reefedmain reefed

• Other boats dropped sails, Other boats dropped sails, used OB, headed inused OB, headed in

• Hove-to through 50-72 Hove-to through 50-72 knot breezeknot breeze

• Resumed race & won!Resumed race & won!• Noticed grounded boats Noticed grounded boats

on the way in.on the way in.

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 23

An Exercise in Risk Mgt!An Exercise in Risk Mgt!• First race/second sail of First race/second sail of

the season (mid-April) the season (mid-April) (first sail in 5 kts)(first sail in 5 kts)

• Forecast from day before Forecast from day before is for 10-15 with slowly is for 10-15 with slowly falling temp, cloudy and falling temp, cloudy and wind going to the NW from wind going to the NW from NENE

• First doublehanded race!First doublehanded race!• Crew arrives and Crew arrives and

complains about hangovercomplains about hangover• Assess and Manage?Assess and Manage?

Based on a true story.The names have been changed…

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 24

An Exercise in Risk Mgt!An Exercise in Risk Mgt!

• Arrive at the start. Wind is Arrive at the start. Wind is 13-16. Radio and cell 13-16. Radio and cell phones inop.phones inop.

• Choose #3 due to stability & Choose #3 due to stability & visibility.visibility.

• Around leeward mark the Around leeward mark the starboard jib lead breaks. starboard jib lead breaks. Quickly tacks.Quickly tacks.

• Jib Change to #1?Jib Change to #1?• Assess and Manage?Assess and Manage?

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 25

An Exercise in Risk Mgt!An Exercise in Risk Mgt!• PFD on, #1 goes up, PFD on, #1 goes up,

crew back on rail.crew back on rail.• Coming in on port Coming in on port

layline…layline…• ““Starboard!”Starboard!”• Quick tack & splash!Quick tack & splash!• Singlehanded recovery. Singlehanded recovery.

Crew goes below to Crew goes below to change.change.

• Assess and Manage?Assess and Manage?

Safety at Sea 200427-28 March, Annapolis, MD

Slide 26

Final ThoughtsFinal Thoughts• Sailing does not have to be very risky.Sailing does not have to be very risky.• Sailing risks can change rapidly and must Sailing risks can change rapidly and must

be constantly assessed.be constantly assessed.• Know that collisions, grounding, Know that collisions, grounding,

capsizing, falling overboard and fires are capsizing, falling overboard and fires are the most common problems.the most common problems.

• Education and Experience (& practice!) Education and Experience (& practice!) are strong mitigators of risk.are strong mitigators of risk.