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Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
László TÓTH,László TÓTH,
HungaryHungary
Bay Zoltán Institute for Bay Zoltán Institute for Logistics and Production Logistics and Production
SystemsSystems
11stst Hungarian-Ukrainian Joint Conference on Hungarian-Ukrainian Joint Conference on
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsEngineering Plants and Components
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
11 of April11 of April
• 1241 1241 Batu khan won against IV. Béla at MuhiBatu khan won against IV. Béla at Muhi
• 18911891 Sergey Prokofjev was born Sergey Prokofjev was born
• 19001900 Sándor Márai was born Sándor Márai was born
• 1905 1905 Attila József was bornAttila József was born
• 1945 1945 caretaker government of Hungary movecaretaker government of Hungary movedd to to
Budapest from DebrecenBudapest from Debrecen
• 19851985 Ever Hodzsa Ever Hodzsa wwas diedas died
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
12 of April12 of April
• 1861 1861 The The american american civil war has been startedcivil war has been started
• 19381938 Fjodor Saljapin was died Fjodor Saljapin was died
• 19451945 F.D. Roosevelt was died F.D. Roosevelt was died
• 1961 1961 J.A. Gagarin passed the first space flightJ.A. Gagarin passed the first space flight
• 1971 1971 Igor Evenevicsh Tamm physicist was died, Igor Evenevicsh Tamm physicist was died, who hawho hadd received t received thhe Nobel-price (in 1958) e Nobel-price (in 1958)
• 19811981 The first take off of the Columbia space The first take off of the Columbia space shuttleshuttle
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Space flighSpace fligh: : 12. April, 1961
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Paul GAUGIN, 1897 (Boston, Museum of Fine Arts, 141x376 cm)
Where We come from? What We Are? Where we are going?
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
The Basic Words in The Basic Words in Technical-Economical Life Technical-Economical Life
Safety Safety
ReliabilityReliability
RiskRisk
CostsCosts
Level of
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Nu
mb
er o
f N
PP
-s
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
Years
Designed in 80’s Designed in 70’s
Designed in 50-60’s years
31. December, 2005
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Reliability conceptReliability concept
At a given technical level !!
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Event based
approach
Time based
approach
Condi-tion
basedapproach
Relia-bilitybased
approach
Riskbased
approach
1950 1960 1980 1990 1995
STRATEGYSTRATEGY
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ion
oper
atio
n/se
cond
s
1978 1982 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
RISKRISK=probability of failure
xconsequences
DEFINITION of the System
Determination of theDanger
Consequences Probabiltyp
rob
ab
ility
consequences
RISK
DECISION
TO DO something
To do nothing
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Goal… critical componentsGoal… critical components• Manage risk =
– define it– identify it– quantify it– rank it– control it– minimize it– …
0102030405060708090
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100
% of components
% o
f to
tal
risk
~20% of components yielding ~80% of total risk
~80% of all components yielding ~20% of total risk
… HOW to do itpractically?!?
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
The driving forces of developmentThe driving forces of development
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Kvantum technology
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Chernobyl, 26. April 1986. 1323
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Partners, GuestPartners, Guest
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Paton’s FamilyPaton’s Family
1918. November 27.
1870. március 5. –1953. július 12.
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Bay Zoltán (1900 - 1992)
• He measured the distance between the earth and moon using micro-wave technology (06.02.1946.) (Radar astronomy).
• Definition of the unit of the distance, meter (1965-1983)
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Thank you for your kind attention!
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