Slide 1

Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

ECMWF reanalysis:

present and future

Slide 2

CONTENTS

Background

ERA-15 ERA-40 ERA-Interim

Product quality

Reanalysis plans at ECMWF

Slide 3

ECMWF reanalysis projects

ERA-15 1979 – 1993

ERA-40 1957 – 2002

ERA-Interim 1989 … ECDAS

Slide 4

Operational forecast performance 1980-2007

Northern Hemisphere

500 hPa geopotentialANC reaching 60%

Southern Hemisphere

500 hPa geopotentialANC reaching 60%

Tropics

850 hPa wind vectorABC reaching 70%

N.HEM LAT 20.000 TO 90.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000

ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST

500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL

ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC

Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20064.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

SCORE REACHES 60.00

SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA

2005200019851980 1990 1995TROPICS LAT -20.000 TO 20.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000

ABSOLUTE CORRELATION FORECAST

850hPa VECTOR WIND

ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC

Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

SCORE REACHES 70.00

SCORE REACHES 70.00 MA

2005200019851980 1990 1995S.HEM LAT -90.000 TO -20.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000

ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST

500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL

ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC

Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20063

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

SCORE REACHES 60.00

SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA

2005200019851980 1990 1995

Monthly time seriesMoving average

ERA-15 ERA-40ERA-Interim

Slide 5

ECMWF reanalyses

ERA-40 1957-2002

ERA-15 1979-1993

Improved data assimilation system

- Assimilating model T159L60

- 3D-Var FGAT

- Analysis of O3

More extensive use satellite radiances ERA-15 experience ERA-40 blacklist More comprehensive use of conventional observations Use of Meteosat reprocessed winds, CSR data passive Improved SST & ICE dataset Ocean wave height analysis

Slide 6

VTPRVTPR1973

TOMS/ SBUVTOMS/ SBUV1979

1979TOVS:TOVS:

HIRS/ MSU/ SSUHIRS/ MSU/ SSUCloud Motion WindsCloud Motion Winds

1987SSM/ISSM/I 1991

ERS-1ERS-11995ERS-2ERS-2

1998ATOVS:ATOVS:AMSU-AAMSU-A

METEOSAT METEOSAT ReprocessedReprocessed

Cloud Motion Cloud Motion WindsWinds

1982 1988

CONVENTIONAL SURFACE AND UPPERAIR OBSERVATIONSNCAR/ NCEP, ECMWF, JMA, US Navy, Twerle, GATE, FGGE, TOGA, TAO, COADS, …

AIRCRAFT DATAAIRCRAFT DATA1973

1957 2002

Observing Systems in ERA-40

Slide 7

Slide 8

Trend and variability in two-metre temperature

CRUTEM2v (Jones and Moberg, 2003)

ERA-40

Linear trend (1979-2001): CRUTEM2v 0.31OC/decade

ERA-40 0.28OC/decade

NCEP 0.19OC/decade

Slide 9

Slide 10

Satellite radar altimeter 1992-2003(Davis et al. Science 2005 Vol 308 No. 5730)

Surface elevation change rate (cm per year):

1992 2003

Precipitation change (cm of snow per year): ERA-40 (1992-2001)+ ECMWF OP (2002-03)

Slide 11

The Great Flood of 1953

The greatest surge on record for the North Sea as a whole occurred on 31 January and 1 February 1953. In the Netherlands 1,800 people drowned and in eastern England 307 people died.

Slide 12

February 1953 00UTC The 500 hPa “Carpet” donated to ECMWF by

the Netherlands

Slide 13

Slide 14

Analysis

Sunday 1 February 1953 00UTC 500 hPa geopotential

Slide 15

Forecast +7D

Analysis 1 Feb. 1953 T+168 hours

Slide 16

Wave Analysis 1 Feb. 1953 T+36 hour Wave forecast

Slide 17

Serves as an intermediate reanalysis before the next extended reanalysis

Assimilation has reached September 2004 and will reach real time in the end of 2008

1989 - 1998 products publicly available

Input data based mainly on ERA-40 and ECMWF operational observations with a few reprocessed datasets

ERA-40 1957-2002

ERA-Interim 1989 to continue as CDAS

Slide 18

Data-assimilation system

T159L60 T255L60 / 12 hour 4D-Var

New humidity analysis and improved model physics

Satellite level-1c radiances

Better RTTOV and improved use of radiances, especially IR and AMSU

Assimilation of rain affected radiances through 1D-Var

Variational bias correction

Improved use of radiosondes

Bias correction and homogenization based on ERA-40

Correction of SHIP/ SYNOP surface pressure biases

Use of reprocessed

- Meteosat winds

- GPS-RO data CHAMP / UCAR 2001 , GRACE and COSMIC

- GOME O3 profiles 1995

New set of Altimeter wave height data 1991

ERA-40 1957-2002

ERA-Interim 1989 to continue as CDAS

Slide 19

56

54

5452

49

49

41

30

28

2321 21

19

19

18

10

87

6

301

2

3

3

5

5

6

11

11

11

11

13

18

24

24

3840

0006 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812total column water vapour

kg/m²

2

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

70

ERA group

Daily mean total column water vapour1989-1998

Slide 20

10

7

5

44

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-11

-11

-8

-7-7

-3

-3

-3

-3

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2-2

-2

-1

-1

-1-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

00

0

10

7

5

44

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-11

-11

-8

-7-7

-3

-3

-3

-3

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2-2

-2

-1

-1

-1-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

00

0

ERA40 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812differences to0006 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812total column water vapour

kg/m²

-20-16-13-10-7-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.512345710131620

ERA group

Daily mean total column water vapour1989-1998, ERA-Interim-ERA-40

Slide 21

3

11

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

0

***

***

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***

***

***

***

*** ***

***

-2

-2

-1

0

0

3

11

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

0

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

***

*** ***

***

-2

-2

-1

0

0

SSM/I monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812differences to0006 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812total column water vapour

kg/m²

-20-16-13-10-7-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.512345710131620

ERA group

Daily mean total column water vapour1989-1998, ERA-Interim-SSM/I

Slide 22

Global Total Column Water Vapour

Slide 23

29

21

1413

12

12

1110

10

9

7

6

6

6

5

4

44

3

3

3 3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

11

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

8

total precipitationERA-Interim. 0006 monthly/daily accumulation. +12h.

mm/day

0.2

1

2

3

5

7

10

13

16

20

25

ERA group

Mean daily precipitation,1989-1998, ERA-Interim

Slide 24

14

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0-1 -24

-15 -14-9

-5

-4

-4

-3

-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

14

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0-1 -24

-15 -14-9

-5

-4

-4

-3

-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

ERA40 198901 to 199812 +12hdifferences toERA-Interim. 0006 198901 to 199812 +12htotal precipitation

mm/day

-25-20-16-13-10-7-5-3-2-1-0.20.2123571013162025

ERA group

Mean daily precipitation, 1989-1998 ERA-Interim-ERA-40

Slide 25

ERA-40 +00h JRA-25 +00h RSS +00h ERA-Int +00hTotal column water vapour (Kg/m**2) Tropical Oceans

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200138

40

42

44

46

48

38

40

42

44

46

48

Slide 26

Tropical Ocean areas

Slide 27

27

20

12

1110

7

66 6

6

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

2

22

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

-2

-6

-6

-5-5

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-3

-3-3

-2

-2

-2

-2

-1

-1

0

0

0

0

0

11

27

20

12

1110

7

66 6

6

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

2

22

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

-2

-6

-6

-5-5

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-3

-3-3

-2

-2

-2

-2

-1

-1

0

0

0

0

0

11

precipitation - evaporationERA-Interim. 0006 monthly/daily accumulation. +12h.

mm/day

-13

-10

-7

-5

-3

-2

-1

-0.20.2

1

2

3

5

7

10

13

16

20

25

ERA group

Slide 28

ERA-40 +12h ERA-Int +12hPrecipitation - evaporation (mm/day) The entire Globe

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Slide 29

Forecast performance, ERA-40, ERA-Interim and Operations

Slide 30

Research & Development as a collaborative effort 2009-2011

Start of production in 2012

1938 2015 and continue as CDAS

Important components

– Recovery, organization and homogenization of observations

– Improved SST & ICE dataset

– Variational analysis technique aimed for reanalysis

– Comprehensive adaptive bias handling

– Handling of model biases

– Coupled atmospheric-ocean reanalysis?

ERA-Interim

ERA-75?

Slide 31

Slide 32

Slide 33

4D-Var CONTROLAll observations

3D-Var “Surfacepressure

observationsonly”

4D-Var “Surfacepressure

observationsonly”

15 February 2005 00 UTC 500 hPa analysis