Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System

Incite!Sales: Sales Portfolio Forecasting

SystemImprove Your Revenue with Greater

Accuracy in Sales Forecasts

www.incitedecisiontech.comrdbrown@incitedecisiontech.com678.947.5997

http://www.incitedecisiontech.com/

mailto:[email protected]

Sales forecasts are notoriously biased.Why?

• Unwarranted optimism• Sand bagging• Sense of entitlement• False precision versus accuracy• Memorable or extreme events• Availability of irrelevant information• Anchoring

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These effects are most noticeable in firms with

• Long, complex sales cycles

• Low frequency, high value sales

• Little historical information on which to base top-down forecasts

• Examples: professional services, capital equipment firms, engineering, architecture, construction, IT development, etc.

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How does this affect your business?

• You fail to prioritize the best opportunities effectively, leading to delay or failure to close

• Income crunches and cash shortages take you by surprise

• Production needs misalign with delivery commitments

• The needs of your market get obscured by false narratives, preventing effective growth or expansion


Our Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System addresses these problems

• Avoid inherent biases in single point estimates

• Develop an accurate picture of when revenues will most likely occur & when shortfalls are imminent

• Reallocate resources to increase the likelihood of closing valuable opportunities sooner

• Know which opportunities to abandon

• Become a learning organization that improves forecasts & efficiency over time

The Four Pillars of the System

• Calibration – Inputs are “debiased” & put in proper form for mathematical simulation.

• Simulation – Monte Carlo simulation operates on all inputs in a statistically consistent manner for useful interpretation.

• Interpretation – Meaningful results are returned in clear, graphical displays that permit important insights.

• Communication – Insights translate into action with the proper resources & support coaching and incentive programs



Removing bias from sales estimates starts with effective calibration

10% 90% 99%1% 50%

8 27 433 12

Input Calibration: Units Sold: acct 1

15.3

Avg

Exploratory dialog guides an estimate for a range of assumptions for each of eight inputs, not just single point values.

Visual feedback helps to calibrate assumptions for reasonableness. Should you now widen or narrow your estimate?


Get an accurate picture of when you will likely see revenue occur

Peaks indicate when receipts most likely occur. Valleys indicate distribution of income concerns.


Get an accurate picture of where revenue crunches & trends occur

!Trend

Trend


Understand where to make important tradeoffs to improve closure of valuable opportunities

Could you reallocate resources to improve the likelihood of more valuable awards?


Understand the efficient priority of opportunities

What if you completely reallocated resources from pursuing these low marginal contribution opportunities?


Understand the gap between total potential income and risk adjusted income

Potential

Risked

$2M $4M

Revenue [$]

$6M $8M $10M $12M $14M $16M $18M $20M$0

Gap = $6.6M

10% 90% 99%1% 50%

Percentile Legend

Avg

The gap represents the Value of Control for insuring that all opportunities result in Award.


Learn from your history to improve

• Obtain insights into sales reps’ tendency toward accuracy

• Implement coaching and incentive programs to improve accuracy

• Observe how sales reps improve accuracy over time

Trailing 1Q Trailing 2Q Trailing 3Q Trailing 4Q

10% 40% 40% 10% 25% 30% 40% 5% 30% 40% 25% 5% 50% 25% 15% 10%

Trailing Quarter Accuracy: Units Sold: Sales Rep 1

Should your sales organization use our Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System?

14Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved

[email protected]

678.947.5997

Contact us today to see a live demo and learn more!

Is your company a professional services, capital equipment, engineering, architecture, construction, or IT development firm?

Do you experience long, complex sales cycles with low frequency, high value sales?

Do you possess little historical information on which to base top-down forecasts?

Do you maintain a progressive attitude toward advanced sales processes or want to grow in that direction?

http://www.incitedecisiontech.com/

mailto:[email protected]

Date post:	26-Jan-2015
Category:	Business
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Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System

Business