1
Juan Camilo ParraSergio Rodríguez
Carlos VegaSantiago Zafra
Juan Pablo Quiñones
Salesforce Acquisition ofSlack Technologies
20/02/2021
Table of Contents
Industry Overview
Company Overview–Salesforce
Company Overview - Slack
Financial Analysis
Multiples Valuation
Cost of Capital
Financial Forecast
DCF Valuation
Conclusions & Recommendations
3
5
7
10
13
15
17
21
23
2
Industry Overview
3
Industry Overview: Cloud Computing
Macroeconomic Trends
● COVID-19 lock-downs impact the way people work and enhance a digital transformation trend.
● Massive investments in cloud computing infrastructure.
● Business are engaging their operations to a cloud software and technology integration, aiming for less expensive and more secure data management.
● The retail and consumer goods vertical is one ofthe fastest-growing verticals with respect to theadoption of emerging and innovative technologies.
● The Cloud Messaging Industry’s growth is drivenmainly by enterprise migration to the cloud and thenecessity to improve clear communication amongthe company.
4
90% of companies are
on cloud2
Cloud computing market size from
371.4 to 832.1 USD Bn by 20251
60% of workloads are
on a hosted cloud service by
20192
1. 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑠. 2020 .𝐶𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑑 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡.
2. 451 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ: 69% 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖 − 𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑣𝑖𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑦 2019, 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑡𝑦.
Key Industry Numbers
Company Overview - Salesforce
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● Business Model: Customer Relationship Managementplatform, that connects companies and clients formarketing, sales, commerce and services purposes.
● Competition: Microsoft Dynamics 365 for Sales, Sugar Sell,Insightly, Sap Sales Cloud, etc.
● Active Users: +150,000 companies worldwide.
● CEO: Marc Benioff since 2001.
Company Highlights
Company Overview – Salesforce
Relevant Data
6
Data: Oct-2020 (mm USD)Market cap $227,290 Revenue $13,282D/E 15.44
Current: $254.23 High: $281.25 Low: $5.29
Stock Price Behavior
EV/ Revenues 11.01x
EV/ EBITDA 110.46x
254.23
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Oct-
05
Oct-
06
Oct-
07
Oct-
08
Oct-
09
Oct-
10
Oct-
11
Oct-
12
Oct-
13
Oct-
14
Oct-
15
Oct-
16
Oct-
17
Oct-
18
Oct-
19
Oct-
20
Company Overview - Slack
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● Business Model: Company that aims to connect teams,unify their systems and enhance communication facilitiesthat drive businesses forward.
● Competition: Microsoft Teams, Cloudflare, Twilio, Zoom, etc.
● Active Users: 142,000 paid customers, 1,080 paid users >$100,000 and 710,000 non-paid users.
● CEO: Stewart Butterfield since 2013.
Company Highlights
Company Overview – Slack Technologies
Relevant Data
8
Data: Oct-2020 (mm USD)
Market cap $24,919Revenue $400.6
% YoY Revenue 39%
Current: $25.58 High: $39.90 Low: $17.04
Stock Price Behavior
Free users are
funneled, and
direct sales
convert them
into enterprise
consumers.
Direct Sales
Freemium Model
Viral Growth
EV/ Revenues 29.25xEV/ EBITDA -102.22x
25.58
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
Jan
-20
Fe
b-2
0
Ma
r-2
0
Ap
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Se
p-2
0
Oct-
20
Company Milestones – Slack Technologies
9
Acronym for
“Searchable Log of
All Communication
and Knowledge”
2015
2019
Went public with a direct
offering ($26.0 p/s)
20182017
2016
2013
2014
Public launch
Slack worth $3B
and reached
200,000 paid
customers
Start blitzcaling
phase
Partnership with IBM
and Google
Ranked #1 in Forbes’
Cloud 100 list
Slack announced the
acquisition
of Missions, Stride
and HipChat
Financial Analysis
10
Financial Analysis
11
74.28%
18.89% 19.95%
86.13%
-28.30% -27.12%
72.19%
26.14%19.99%
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin
Salesforce Slack Industry
Profitability Ratios Leverage Ratios
0.16
3.08
0.73
-13.98
0.27
2.34
D/E DEBT/EBITDA
Salesforce Slack Industry
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Thousand U
SD
Revenue Growth
Financial Analysis
12
Historical Revenues
CQGR 10.2%
Historical Users
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Total Customers Growth Rate
Avg. Growth Rate CQGR 6.9%Avg. Growth Rate
Multiples Approach
13
14
Multiples Approach
Minimum 3.9xMedian 9.7xAverage 15.9xMaximum 45.8x
Slack Sales (USD mn) $ 833.915
Equity Valuation Field
Multiple Used (EV/Revenues)
Multiples Approach
36,614 USD Mn
3,715 USD Mn
8,535 USD Mn
13,746 USD Mn
Comparable CompaniesSector Cloud Computing
Cost of Capital
15
Cost of Capital
Cost of EquityInputs
Ke = 7.31%
Equity Risk Premium 4.97%
Risk Free Rate 0.68%
Beta 1.33
16
Unlevered Beta 0.87
D/E 0.73
Cost of DebtInputs
Corporate Tax 27%Kd (Pre-Tax) 0.92%
WACC
WACC = 4.51%
ERP: Damodaran
Rf: US Treasury 10 years T-Bond
Unlevered Beta: Sector Software & Technology Damodaran
Kd: Interest Rate Convertible Notes
Financial Forecast
17
Sales & Users
18
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2018Q2
2019Q2
2020Q2
2021Q2 E
2022Q2 E
2023Q2 E
2024Q2 E
2025Q2 E
Paid Customers Paid Customers > $100,000
Non-paid Users
Users Forecast
Paid Customers growth
Paid Customers > $100,000 growth
Non-paid Users growth
7.7%
8.5%
7.7%
Price Forecast
Implicit Average Revenue per User (ARPU) grow at the inflation rate.
Revenues (Thousand USD)
902,090 1,263,508
1,761,068
2,454,815
3,425,151
4,780,374
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Growth Rates
COGS and OPEX
19
COGS Forecast Gross Profit vs. EBIT
Gross Margin Historical 3 years Average 86%
*Including 2020 Q4 Forecast
Expense margins are reduced gradually accordingto their strategic plan.
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2018Q1
2019Q1
2020Q1
2021Q1
2022Q1
2023Q1
2024Q1
2025Q1
US
D T
housands
R&D S&M G&A COGS
$780,773
1,083,350
1,514,637
2,109,382
2,942,572
4,108,952
(248,389) (246,082) (211,641) (117,438)
88,171
479,430
2020* 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Gross Profit EBITDA
OPEX Forecast
CAPEX and Depreciation
20
CAPEX Forecast
Forecasted as an average percentage of the sales.
Supports users´ growth and investments required to achieve the sales target.
PP&E
Intangibles
Strategic Investments
3.7%
0.4%
2.3%
Depreciation Forecast
D&A expense as an average percentage of PP&E. 6.8%
CAPEX and D&A Forecast
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2020 Q4 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Thousand U
SD
CAPEX D&A
DCF Valuation
21
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
22
DCF Summary
Enterprise Value $27,222Terminal Value $26,439
Stock Price (USD) $50.88
Net Debt -$459.04
Equity Value $27,681
Data: mm USD
Long Term Growth Rate (g) 2.2%
Free Cash Flow to the Firm
2020* 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025EBITDA (248.389) (246.082) (211.641) (117.438) 88.171 479.430 - Delta WK 6.492 (167.178) (237.785) (336.027) (472.565) (663.956)- CAPEX 42.120 77.154 107.536 149.897 209.147 291.899 - Taxes - - - - 12.799 107.626 FCFF (297.001) (156.058) (81.392) 68.692 338.790 743.861 *Including 2020 Q1 – 2020 Q3 Real
Conclusions & Recommendations
23
SWOT
Strategic Overview and Opportunities
Valuation Summary
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Enterprise Value $27,222EV / Revenues 32.21 x
Stock Price (USD) $50.88WEAKNESSESReduction in Salesforce profitability due to Slack negative net profit margin. Slack revenue is under the average of competitors.
W
THREATSHighly changing industry due to dependency on tech development. Competitive Sector. T
OPPORTUNITIESReach new markets and customer segments. Increase brand perception. O
STRENGTHSIncrease revenues and acquire new paid customers. Boost in communication platform business. Possible synergies.
SEquity Value $27.681
Data: mm USD
Conclusions & Sensitivity Analysis
25
The transaction is an accretive horizontal
merger given the possible synergies and
growth opportunities that could possibly
translate into greater EPS after the merger.
The value of Slack is 27.68 bn USD.
According to the sensitivity analysis, the
principal driver of the model is the customers
growth rate.
The acquisition of Slack technologies would
be considered a threat to big CRM
companies, Salesforce will attain a higher
market share and will gain the power to
influence prices.
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2
3
Sensitivity Analysis
Paid Customers Quarterly Growth Rate
27.681 2,50% 5,00% 7,70% 10,00% 12,5% 15,0%
WA
CC
4,00% 22.051 26.569 35.976 50.313 76.769 121.423
4,51% 16.967 20.445 27.681 38.702 59.029 93.321
5,00% 13.789 16.618 22.497 31.445 47.940 75.755
7,50% 6.826 8.228 11.128 15.527 23.613 37.216
10,00% 4.372 5.268 7.113 9.901 15.012 23.589
15,00% 2.409 2.897 3.889 5.379 8.092 12.622
20,00% 1.605 1.921 2.557 3.504 5.218 8.066
Growth Rate (g)
27.681 1,50% 1,75% 2,20% 2,50% 3,0% 3,5%
WA
CC
4,00% 26.085 28.911 35.976 43.041 64.236 127.822
4,51% 21.387 23.268 27.681 31.723 42.037 62.596
5,00% 18.126 19.471 22.497 25.120 31.240 41.439
7,50% 9.902 10.306 11.128 11.759 12.996 14.544
10,00% 6.576 6.757 7.113 7.373 7.857 8.415
15,00% 3.717 3.777 3.889 3.969 4.111 4.265
20,00% 2.481 2.507 2.557 2.592 2.652 2.716