Salt Evaporation Plant
Reason for Damages Analysis:
On January 17, 2001, there was a natural gas leak from a natural gas storage facility. Gas was found at the subject’s facility within days of the leak. The level of gas detected was sufficient to cause the Hutchinson Fire Chief to order evacuation of the facility. Dennis Bingham
2007 IBA National Conference
Summary Description of Business
• Our client was a salt evaporation plant that produced food and feed grade, mechanically evaporated salt from injection mining. It also owned hundreds of acres of land under which the salt is found.
• Over many years of salt mining, huge caverns remain from which the natural gas would seep.
Problem
• As of the date of valuation, according to independent experts, there was no method to determine
1. How much gas remained in the ground under the facility and
2. There was no method to totally cure or remediate the presence of the natural gas in the foreseeable future.
How We Attempted to Solve the Valuation
• We set out to find resources that would help us to quantify a loss in value.
• Approach the loss of value from the perspective of what a willing buyer or seller would do.
When a Detrimental Condition Exists
• When there is evidence of environmental contamination, or structural damage, or issues of safety to public health, a detrimental condition is said to exist.
• The main driver of a loss of value when a detrimental condition exists, is an uncertainty for the buyer.
Valuation of Subject with Consideration of Detrimental Condition
Valuation MethodsMethodology for Economic Damages
• In arriving at an estimate of economic damages we prepared two analyses:
1. “but-for” or the unimpaired situation and
2. “after” or the impaired situation
• The difference between these two estimates represents our estimate of economic damages.
Valuation Methods Selected
1. Multiple-period discounting.
2. Adjusted book value.
3. Merger and acquisition methods.
Multiple-Period Discounting Method
• The factors impacting the negative effect on value included the following:
1. Increased risk to the subject’s economic income and,2. The potential that buyers may be unable to obtain financing
and that buyers would require a reduced price for the enterprise due to the risk of future explosion.
• We prepared the “but-for” analysis using a standard valuation methodology (including the build-up method to determine the cost of capital).
• We prepared two “after” the environmental accident forecasts. The forecasts utilized CAPM methodology.
Forecast 1
• We assumed that as a result of the potential interruption in the subject’s economic income stream a willing buyer would require a higher rate of return on the investment to compensate for the higher risk.
Forecast 2
• We assumed that as a result of the potential interruption in the subject’s income stream that lenders would be unwilling to finance the business risk. Therefore, buyers would need more equity invested, which would increase the discount rate.
• We estimated the increased discount rate by calculating a WACC for the subject assuming 10% equity financing.
Adjusted Book Value Method (Excess Earning)
• The factors impacting the negative effect on value included the following:
1. The value of the subject’s real estate would be lower in the “after” scenario because the subject would have an additional risk characteristic that is greater than the companies analyzed in the “but-for” analysis and,
2. Increased risk to the subject’s economic income.• Over the years Shenehon has been involved in numerous
assignments regarding the impact of contamination on real estate values. We compiled a database of 25 such environmental-affected transactions (majority in the MSP area).
• We determined the diminution from “unimpaired” value by environmental issues (for example: hydrocarbon contamination, natural gas/methane contamination, chemical contamination, and toxic metal contamination).
• We identified discounts from unimpaired value for natural gas/methane contamination ranging from 12% to 61% with a median of 14%. After further analysis, we estimated a 15% adjustment was appropriate in this case. This discount was applied to the subject’s fixed assets (land, building, plant equipment and office equipment).
Merger and Acquisition Methods• The value of the subject’s business would be lower in the “after” scenario
because the subject would have an additional risk characteristic that is greater than the companies analyzed in the “but-for” analysis.
• We calculated the “but-for” value using transaction data that was publicly reported on four salt producers. In addition, we used eight private transactions that were reported in Done Deal States (SIC 2899).
• In arriving at an “after” value we relied on the data base of 25 such environmental-affected transactions (majority in the MSP area) discussed earlier.
• We determined the diminution from “unimpaired” value by environmental issued (for example: hydrocarbon contamination, natural gas/methane contamination, chemical contamination, and toxic metal contamination).
• We identified discounts from unimpaired value for natural gas/methane contamination ranged from 12% t0 61% with a median of 14%. After further analysis, we estimated a 15% adjustment was appropriate in this case. This discount was applied to the subject’s fixed assets.
• We separately adjusted the salt reserves and goodwill multiples by 22% and 10% respectively.
Summary
UN-Fairness Opinion
Consulting firm (David) v. Big (Bad?) Investment Bank
(Goliath)Peter Butler
2007 IBA National Conference
Fujitsu’s acquisition of Amdahl Valuation problem
12.00/share = fair price? Yes – Big (Bad?) Investment bank No – Small consulting firm
Amdahl Conversion from hardware/equipment (40%
of revenue) distributor to provider of computer information services and software (60%)
IT – faster growth; larger multiples
Why unfair? Financial analysis Relative valuation (Historical)
Blended 60/40 mix: $19.97 - $22.41 Price/sales; price/book
Relative valuation (forward-looking) Blended 60/40 mix: $16.95 Price/earning (future)
Acquisition premium 18.5% (5-days out) v. 45.61% (60/40 mix) 1.6% (day before) v. 45.61%
Amdahl recently traded as high as $13.375
Undue influence - “Googlewack” facts Fujitsu already 42% shareholder in Amdahl Fujitsu – major supplier to Amdahl Two companies shared research & development Fujitsu controlled at least 3 seats on Amdahl’s board of
directors Fujitsu had access to non-public information None of the other large Amdahl shareholders was even
consulted regarding the transaction before the announcement Prior to offer, Fujitsu acknowledged that it would not sell its
shares in the event of a competing bid Assurances from Fujitsu that current Amdahl management
would keep jobs Amdahl agreed to inform Fujitsu if there were other interested
parties
Analysts’ responses The $12 offer did not take into account the
future value of Amdahl’s growing software and services business.
When it looked like the company was on the brink of doing a lot better, it’s going to be Fujitsu that ends up making the real money.
Being in a position of major supplier and 42% shareholder allows Fujitsu to buy the company for $850 million, of which nearly half could be paid from Amdahl’s balance sheet.
Big (Bad?) Investment Bank “Un-Fairness Opinion”
Choice of comparable companies – suspect Low future growth expectations relative to
transformation of company and industry Used adjusted and worst case scenarios that
were between 20% - 80% below earning projections of Amdahl management
Amdahl management’s projections conservative based on street’s consensus
Only spoke with Fujitsu’s investment bankers
Fujitsu is also a client
Conclusions UNFAIR fairness opinion If you come up against big (Bad?)
investment bank – do not be intimidated
Chances are the shareholders’ best interests have not been accounted for
Engagement Type: Business Valuation
Client: 100% Shareholder of Company
Valuation Method: Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF)
Numerator: Cash Flows to Total Invested Capital (TIC)
Denominator: Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Capital Structure: Actual (calculated by iteration)
Value of Equity: TIC minus actual debt
The Case of the Disappearing DebtValuation or Lost Profits with Changing Assumptions
Keith Pinkerton2007 IBA National Conference
Engagement Type: Business Valuation
Client: 100% Shareholder of Company
Valuation Method: DCF
Numerator: Cash Flows to TIC
Denominator: WACC
Capital Structure: Hypothetical
Value of Equity: TIC minus hypothesized debt
The Case of the Disappearing Debt
Engagement Type: Calculation of Lost Profits (Into Perpetuity)
Client: 100% Shareholder of Company
Valuation Method: DCF
Numerator: Cash Flows to TIC
Denominator: WACC
Capital Structure: Actual (calculated by iteration)
Value of Equity: TIC minus actual debt
The Case of the Disappearing Debt
Engagement Type: Calculation of Lost Profits (Into Perpetuity)
Client: 100% Shareholder of Company
Valuation Method: DCF
Numerator: Cash Flows TIC
Denominator: WACC
Capital Structure: Hypothetical
Value of Equity: TIC minus hypothesized debt
The Case of the Disappearing Debt
Key Points Start-up company. VC Funding 8/1/03, Val Date 1/1/04
Technology-based (Internet) company
Gross revenues from inception less than $500K
Litigated matter, opposing expert uses DCF to TIC
10-year DCF with imbedded Gordon Growth model
Employs a hypothetical 60/40 (d/e) capital structure
CoE = 22%, CoD = 4.2%, WACC = 14.9%
Initially subtracts no debt b/c “there is no debt” @ t=0 Later claims no debt subtract b/c it’s a lost profits
calculation, not a valuation
The Case of the Disappearing Debt
The Case of the Disappearing Debt
CASH FLOWS TO EQUITY CASH FLOWS TO & EQUITY DISCOUNT RATE TIC AND WACC
2000 2001 2002 Terminal 2000 2001 2002 Terminal
EBIT $19,000 $19,950 $20,948 $21,995 $19,000 $19,950 $20,948 $21,995Less Interest Expense $4,000 $4,200 $4,410 $4,631 $4,000 $4,200 $4,410 $4,631EBT $15,000 $15,750 $16,538 $17,364 $15,000 $15,750 $16,538 $17,364Less Income tax @ 40% $6,000 $6,300 $6,615 $6,946 $6,000 $6,300 $6,615 $6,946Net Income $9,000 $9,450 $9,923 $10,419 $9,000 $9,450 $9,923 $10,419
Adjustments for Cash FlowPlus Depreciation $9,000 $9,450 $9,923 $10,419 $9,000 $9,450 $9,923 $10,419Less CAPEX ($11,000) ($11,550) ($12,128) ($12,734) ($11,000) ($11,550) ($12,128) ($12,734)Less W/C ($1,000) ($1,050) ($1,103) ($1,158) ($1,000) ($1,050) ($1,103) ($1,158)Plus Interest, net of tax $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,400 $2,520 $2,646 $2,778Plus Inc. in Long Term Debt $2,000 $2,100 $2,205 $2,315 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Flow $8,000 $8,400 $8,820 $9,261 $8,400 $8,820 $9,261 $9,724
Discount rateEquity 25.0% 25.0%Debt (after tax) 6.0% 6.0%
Applicable Discount Rate 25.0% 15.5%
Sustainable Growth Rate 5.0% 5.0%Capitalization Rate 20.0% 10.5%
Undiscounted Terminal Value $46,305 $92,610
Present Value of Cash Flows $6,400 $5,376 $4,516 $23,708 $7,273 $6,612 $6,011 $60,105
Sum of Present Values $40,000 $80,000Less Debt $0 $40,000
Value of Equity $40,000 $40,000
This example is a partial re-production from Valuing A Business , by Pratt, et al, 4th Edition, pages 189-195
Difference: $873
Difference: $1,236
Go
The Case of the Disappearing Debt
2000 2001 2002 Terminal Total
Difference in PV of Cash Flows $873 $1,236 $1,495 $36,397 $40,000Percent of Total Difference 2.2% 3.1% 3.7% 91.0% 100.0%
Should some amount of debt be subtracted even in finite period of lost profits. . . when cash flow to total invested capital is the measure
of damages… and when the plaintiff group does not include creditors?
Application to Finite Cash Flow Stream
Appraising Appraising the“Googlewacks”the“Googlewacks”
2007 IBA National Symposium2007 IBA National Symposium
Masterminds Track IIMasterminds Track II
June 22, 2007June 22, 2007
Conrad Business Appraisers
KC Conrad
2007 IBA National Conference
Unique Business Unique Business Valuations: Valuations:
Reining in that Final Reining in that Final ValueValue
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Valuation Problem:Valuation Problem:Customer Base Substantially – U.S. Government
Intelligence Community 39%
Department of Defense 61%
Subject produced “things” which are deployed or sent into the field.
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Description of Business:Description of Business:
The Company’s Three Main Products:
- Software Engineering
- Electro-Mechanical Integration
- Prototyping Services(Commonly known as bending metal & writing code)
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Description of Business:Description of Business:The Company provided critical system engineering and software engineering expertise for the development of advanced systems for the:
Intelligence Community
Department of Defense
Homeland Security
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Description of Business:Description of Business:
These services where used for:
• Space Systems
• C4ISR
• Intelligence & Defense Community
Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR)
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Obstacle:Obstacle:
Conrad Business Appraisers
did not hold the required
U.S. Government
Security Clearance
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Problems to Solve:Problems to Solve:- What information would Subject provide (security issues) ?
- What economic factors affect the company?
- Who are their competitors?
- Availability of industry data?
- Potential pool of buyers?
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Conrad Business Appraisers
Approach to Value 1:Approach to Value 1:
2007 IBA National Conference
I formed negative questions during management’s interview:
• You probably do not provide services on a sub-contracting basis?
• The economy doesn’t affect the business you do for the government?
• All of your competitors a larger than you?
• They don’t do exactly what you do?
• You never had a problem getting employees through security clearance?
• Hypothetically speaking…?
Approach to Value 2:Approach to Value 2:
Searched : Lockheed Martin; Boeing; Raytheon; Honeywell; Northrop Grumman
Reviewed 10k’s: For similar type of services offered and outlook
Examined likely pool of potential buyers
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Value Conclusion:Value Conclusion:Income Approach – MPDM
Market Approach – Guideline Company
$ 23,600,000.00$ 23,600,000.00
Conrad Business Appraisers 2007 IBA National Conference
Appraising the Googlewacks
Brent McDade
2007 IBA National Symposium
Masterminds Track II
June 22, 2007
Beefy Brisket Chop Shop
• Valuation Date 10/31/2004
• Controlling Interest Basis
• Divorce
Appraising the Googlewacks
Historical Industry Conditions
• Recent history very attractive
• Low carb diets and realization that fat not all bad increasing domestic demand
• Lots of production along the Canadian border
• Canada a net exporter of cattle to be processed in the United States
Appraising the Googlewacks
Looming Concern: BSE
• Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy
• Outbreak in UK in 1986
• Related to: – Scrapie in sheep and goats– Chronic Wasting Disease in deer and elk– FSE in cats– Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD)
in humans
Appraising the Googlewacks
Mad Cow Disease
• Cause not known• Believed to be transmitted by eating infected
protein (prion)• Resistant to heat, UV light, radiation, normal
sterilization processes• Not destroyed by cooking• Transmitted by eating material infected with
prions• Back of mind concern until …
Appraising the Googlewacks
May 20, 2003
• BSE discovered in Alberta, Canada
• United States almost immediately bans importation of Canadian cattle and beef products
• Supply of cattle moves sharply to the left, increasing costs
• Company suffers from short supply of Canadian beef, but not nearly as much as plants further north
• Company in fixed price contracts, so profitability suffers a little
• Company begins selling some spot market cuts domestically
• U.S. beef product prices increase somewhat, as supply from Canadian processors eliminated
Appraising the Googlewacks
Fiscal Year Ending October 31, 2003• Industry rocked by BSE
• Cattle prices in the US skyrocket, particularly near the Canadian border
• Tyson, Smithfield, and other big players close plants
• The Company benefits from all this and has its most profitable year ever, driven by a large upswing in inventory valuation
• Location near Omaha allows the Company to access US cattle at prices lower than more distant plants
• Company successful in maximizing revenue per carcass with sales to Japan and Mexico
• By this time, oversupply of cattle in Canada has resulted in incentives to build processing capacity there – moves quickly, since age of cattle is a significant factor in quality (value) of cuts
• US begins importing Canadian boxed beef – but not Canadian cattle – in 8/03
Appraising the Googlewacks
If anything can go wrong, it will…
• In December of 2003, BSE is found in the U.S. herd
• Almost immediately, 40 countries close their borders to US beef products
• Ouch
• Company begins hurriedly refocusing its marketing efforts on domestic sales
– Requires operational changes, as cuts are somewhat different
– Inventory of cuts preferred by Europeans not very valuable
– Inventory of “parts” valuable in Mexico and Asia less than worthless, as brains go from product to hazardous waste
– New Canadian competitors ramping up production; Canadian cattle prices about 70% of cattle prices in US
Appraising the Googlewacks
Fiscal Year Ending October 31, 2004
• Company has its worst year in recent history, reflecting about 10 months of closed-border activity
• Margins down dramatically
• Despite record production and revenue, pretax income down well over 50% from 2003
• Pretax income about 60% of historical norm
• Company struggling to reinvent itself as a supplier to the US market
Appraising the Googlewacks
Valuation Date October 31, 2004
• October 21-23, 2004: Meetings between US and Japanese officials result in tremendous uncertainty about when, if ever, the Japanese border will reopen to US beef
• Australia has become the world’s largest exporter of beef products and the leading supplier to Japan
• Plants are continuing to close in the United States as the public companies shift their operations to other countries
Appraising the Googlewacks
Capitalization of Earnings
• Based ongoing earning power estimate on:
– Average 2004 adjusted pretax with historical normal pretax (2000 – 2002)
– Pre-BSE level of production x 2004 level of gross profit per head – assumes production rebounds but profitability based on current
• Used relatively low multiple due to high risk and little room for volume growth
Appraising the Googlewacks
Key Points Summary
• Admittedly simple valuation method despite complex business
• It was important to focus on the fundamentals of valuation throughout the process– What cash flows would the business generate going
forward?
– How risky are those cash flows?
– By how much would a reasonable investor expect them to grow?
Appraising the Googlewacks
Damages From an Alleged Wrongful Lease Termination
Renaissance Investment, Inc.
V.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Little Rock District
Bill Herber
2007 IBA National Conference
The Ugly Nature of Litigation
Were it not for judicial privilege and sovereign immunity, the government would be held liable for defamation for its closing argument. Its use of falsehoods, distortions, and exaggerations mixed with precious little truth are designed for one purpose: To generate unwarranted hatred and animosity towards Mr. Lehman and Mr. Ginther. In effect, the government has artfully weaved unreliable, inadmissable evidence with unwarranted inferences to recast two honorable and successful men into criminals. The challenge to the Board is to resist being seduced by the sophistic, but grossly unsupportable government arguments and examine the objective, uncontroverted facts of this case on the merits.
Renaissance v. United States
Appellant’s Opening ArgumentReply Brief, February 25, 1997
• Renaissance alleges the Corp of Engineers twice wrongfully terminated a long term lease.
• The commercial concession lease was for operation of an excursion boat and attendant facilities located on 11 acres of land at Table Rock Lake near Branson, Missouri.– The questions before the court was did the Corp of
Engineers unjustly terminate a long term lease.– If the lease was wrongfully terminated, what were the
damages or lost profits.
Case Summary
• November 2, 1997 – for non-payment of rent.
• September 19, 1989 – failure to provide minimum facilities.
• Renaissance Investment, Inc. sought damages of $43,782,828 plus interest of $5,980 per day from the date of breach.
Lease Revocation
• Signed: September 1, 1987• Landlord: Department of Army• Lessee: Originally Steve Lehman – transferred to Renaissance
Investment, Inc. • September 1, 1986 to September 31, 2011 25 Year term – no options.• Rental: Fixed – $3,500 annually, paid quarterly.• Graduated/%: 1.8% on all revenues.• Minimal Facilities Due:
- (1) 450 passenger Paddle Wheeler,$450,000; - (1) 15’ x 70’ Dock, $45,000;- (1) 200’ x 110’ Parking Area, $60,000- (1) 80’ x 30’ Building, $65,000;- Landscaping $20,000; - Lighting – 4 lot, 40 walkway, $10,000; Road Sign $22,000; Info Signs
(6) $1,000; - Utility Connections, $18,000
• After the second lease year, unless waived by the District Eng.– 5% of yearly gross income to be reinvested in park.
• No exclusive right for excursion boat operations.
Lease Summary
• Determine the lost profits for the riverboat project as envisioned by Renaissance Investments, Inc.
• Shenehon conducted a lost profit analysis subtracting the initial construction costs.
• Explaining to the court the difference between Evolutionary vs. Revolutionary Business Types.
• Why do Evolutionary Businesses have no “goodwill” value at the onset, but must develop it over time and therefore requires an operating history.
Purpose of the Analysis
• Had ability to complete project in a timely manner.
• Had capital in place to proceed.• Had competent management.• Based on plans for a dinner riverboat of
340 seats (which was much greater than originally planned.)
All of the above items were disputed at trial.
Assumptions by Renaissance Which Were Challenged in Court
• Determine proper methodology.• Study industry competition.• Completed supply and demand study.• Completed very detailed study of anticipated
revenue and expenses based on what was to be constructed.
• Completed detailed costs to build the anticipated project.
• Arrived at value damages by using DCF and subtracting costs to develop.
• Compared our Pro-forma to Renaissance Pro-forma, outline differences.
Outline of Project
Renaissance Vision
Present Value – Shenehon Analysis
• The appeal was denied in all aspects.
– Off the record, $600,000 was offered to Renaissance in settlement of all claims.
Case Results
• Studied ability to perform financially. Looked at individuals and corporation and whether they could get money to build.
• Studied feasibility of project.– Cost to build.– Review Plans and documents.
• Additional Research– Became an expert in tourism projections
• How to secure funding.• Building a vessel.• Getting all approvals.• Assemble a management team.• Provide a factual foundation for the court.
• Learned how to build a case.
Unique Aspects of Case
Appraising the “Googlewacks”
Institute of Business Appraisers
2007 National Symposium
Masterminds Track II
June 22, 2007
Daniel R. Van Vleet, ASA, CBAManaging DirectorDuff & Phelps, LLC
(312) [email protected]
Valuation Problem
• Executive Options Issued in 1998
• Executive Terminated in 1998 & Attempted Exercise in 1999 3 Months Prior to IPO– Company Refused and Executive Sued– Right to Exercise Upheld in Proceedings– Relatively Small Equity Position
• Issue: FMV of Stock as of 1999– Determination of Damages
• FMV Minus Strike Price Equals Damages
Description of Subject Company
• Dot-Com in Financial Services Sector
• Started in 1997 with Minimal Capital
• S-1 Registration Statement Filed as of VD
• Several Rounds of Venture Capital Funding– Convertible Preferred Voting Securities
• Significant Cash Burn Rate
• Valuation Date 3 Months Prior to IPO– Several Hurdles Remained
• IPO or Die Trying
Financial Characteristics
• From Inception to Valuation Date– $5 Million in Revenues– $20 Million in Operational Losses
• As of Valuation Date– $50 Million in Cash and $45 Million in Equity– $75 Million in Convertible Preferred Equity– Multiple Pre S-1 Transactions with VC Firms– Complex Capital Structure - Options & Warrants– Three Years of Projections
• Cash Flow Positive in the Third Year
Guideline Public Company Method
• Identified 10 Guideline Public Companies– Industry not an Important Characteristic– Sales less than $50 million– In Business as a Result of the Internet
• Developed Revenue Multiples– All Guideline Companies Reported Losses– Revenue Multiples Ranged from 20 to 120– Used Average and Median Multiples– Assumed Conversion of Preferred Stock
• Applied a DLOM
Guideline Transaction Method
• Identified 700 S-1 Filings During 1998
• Narrowed the List– Industry not a Prominent Concern– Less than $50 Million in Revenues– In Business as a Result of the Internet– Not Public as of the Valuation Date– Eliminated Pass-through’s and Banks– Focused on Service Companies– Availability of Pre-IPO Arms Length Transactions
• Transactions Occurred Within 5 Months of IPO
Guideline Transaction Method
• Identified Transactions– Disclosed in “Recent Sales of Unregistered
Securities” Item No. 15 in S-1
• Developed Revenue Multiples– All Companies Reported Operating Losses– Multiples Ranged from 6 to 60– No Statistical Relationships– Used the Average and Median Multiples
• No DLOM Applied– Transactions Involved Private Securities
Discounted Cash Flow Method
• Private Placement Memorandum Projections– 2 Years of Losses and 1 Year of Profits– Extended Projections by 5 Years– Started at Terminal Year and Worked Backwards– Scaled Back PPM Revenue Growth Projections– Used Standard Equity Rate Analysis
• D&P and Ibbotson
• CF Adjustments for WC, Dep. and Cap. Ex.
• Applied a DLOM
Discount for Lack of Marketability
• Willamette Pre-IPO Studies• John D. Emory Studies
– Dot-Com Studies for 1997 Through 2000• 53 Transactions Averaged 54%
– Dated Transactions Prior to IPO• 0-30 Days – 30% 91-120 Days – 49%
• IPO/VC Academic Studies – 1987-2000– 50% Remain Private– 20% are Acquired– 9% Fail– 21% go IPO
Key Points Summary
• The “Dot-Com” Era
• Historical Losses and Cash Burn Rates
• Projected Financials
• Shares Outstanding Used in the Analysis
• FMV and Pre-IPO Transactions
• Failed IPO’s and Post IPO Performance
• Pre-IPO DLOM Studies
• The SEC and “Cheap Stock” Issues
• Rule 144 and 6 Month “Lock-up” Period
No Financial StatementsPRESENTED BY ERNEST E. DUTCHER, MCBA
NATIONAL BUSINESS APPRAISERS, LLC
2007 IBA National Symposium
Masterminds Track II
June 22, 2007
2007 IBA National Conference
Unique Business Valuations: Reining in that Final Value
This Medical Practice case study is presented as follows:
Valuation Problem
Description of the Subject Business
Approaches Used in the Valuation
Value Conclusion
No Financial Statements
Subject Business29 DOCTOR “MEDICAL GROUP WITHOUT WALLS”
• Valuation problem – Individual practice financial data not available for all practices or IPA due to 10-year time lapse.
• Description of the business – A 29 doctor multi-specialty “group without walls” who’s practice area covered about 22 separate business locations in Davis (East Sacramento), California. Doctors had formed an Independent Practice Association (IPA) to handle billing, HMO contract negoti-ations, etc. The IPA negotiated a sale of the Group to a 503 (c) (3) not-for-profit medical foundation.
No Financial Statements
Subject BusinessTables Referenced Below From Actual Report
• Approach to Value #1 - Appraiser had appraised a multi-specialty 29-doctor medical group in a nearby city in the San Francisco to Sacramento corridor. These historical income statements (Table B) were used to establish a foundation for the average expense percentages as related to net revenues and expenses (Table B-1) to apply to certain known factors in the Subject Group (Table B), resulting in an estimate of the various income and expense items for a pro-forma income statement. (Table C).
No Financial Statements
Subject Business Tables Referenced Below From Actual Report
• Approach to Value #2 – A series of tables were prepared to evaluate the real and estimated production expectation of each of the 29 physician partners plus 6 additional hired physicians in the IPA. Production estimates were prepared from the data found in Medical Group Management Study (Physician Compensation and Production Survey: 1994 Report Based on 1993 Data.
• Tables D, D-1, D-2 and D-3 reflect the adjusted estimates the 9 specialties represented in the IPA, used in Table C.
No Financial Statements
Subject Business Tables Referenced Below From Actual Report
• Approach to Value #3 – The following methods were used in this valuation: Income Approach (Table E), Excess Earnings Approach ( Table G), Market Approach (Table I) and Cost Approach (Table O). The results of these approaches were weighted and the Conclusion of Market Values are presented in Table J. The value of the donated assets shown in Partners 1994 Tax Returns was $1,632,377. These assets were valued at $2,515,255 by NBA, or about 54% higher that claimed on Partners returns.
No Financial Statements
Subject Business
• Value Conclusion: Value of contributed “good-will” of about $1.632 million claimed on tax returns but reduced to $100,000 by the IRS. Interest and penalties on the over $1.5 million disclaimed amount, reflected a growing tax liability of over $3 million.
Value of contributed goodwill estimated at $2.5 million by the NBA appraisal upheld in U.S. Tax Court with the concession by the IRS on Value issues. Amendments utilizing the higher values are contemplated by Partners, as well as litigation expenses.
No Financial Statements
Key Points Summarya. Lack of actual financial data will not
necessarily invalidate a report.b. Identify all possible sources of data used. It
will be asked on cross-exam.c. Keep final analysis as simple as possible. It
will be appreciated by the Court. (Table A)d. Do not be intimidated by the IRS. They are as human as we are.e. The pay is good.
No Financial Statements
ASSIGNMENT:
Partial Fee SimpleInterest in a Rail Corridor
Bob Strachota
2007 IBA National Conference
NorthStar Corridor in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Value of 12Train Tripsper Day of43 minutes each through this primaryBurlingtonNorthern Two RailCorridor
Corridor appraisers, mainly working for major railroads, articulated four possible
methods for Valuation of Corridors:
•Across-the-Fence value (ATF)•Liquidation Value (discounted ATF)•Subjective Percentage Replacement Methods Replacement Cost)•Value as a Linear Corridor (Income Approach)
Problem #1: No Established Method for Income ApproachAppraisal of a fee simple partial interest
Answer: Use Applicable Business Valuation AND RealEstate Valuation Principles
Problem #2: Neither Burlington Northern nor the Northstar Committee could provide us with Information
Answer: Use Available Data - Burlington Northern is a Public Company and Department of Transportation Provides Detailed Data pertaining to Cargo Hauled on Rail Corridors.
Example: Weightof Carloads from theDOT
Step 1: Corridor Capacity Calculation
Length of the Corridor (40 miles x two rails) 80Miles Legal, Northstar Committee
Capacity of Freight Trains per Day Two Rails 82Trains Capacity Study for Northstar
Rail Cars per day* 8,200Rail Cars U.S. DOT (100 cars per train)Annual rail Cars Capacity 2,993,000Rail Cars
Average Weight of Rail Car Haul 70Tons U.S. Bureau of Transport StatisticsBNSF 2005 10K, 2006 10Q
Ton Mile Capacity Calculation (annual) Tons per Rail Car X Rail Cars X Miles 16,868,778,231Ton-Miles
How We Did It
Step 2: Projection of Revenues and EBITDA including per Ton-MileSource
Total Revenues - 2006 $14,515,047,500 BNSF 2006 10Q, Value Line
Revenue Ton Miles* 626,403,750,000Ton/Miles BNSF 2005 10K, 2006 10QRevenue per Ton Mile $0.0232 Revenues/TonMiles
Projected EBITDA Margin 30.6% BNSF 2005 10K, 2006 10Q
Average Length of a Haul 1,068Miles BNSF 2005 10K
Total Annual Cars Delivered 10,400,000Cars BNSF 2006 2nd quarter 10QRevenues per Car Delivered $1,396EBITDA per Car Delivered $427
Ton Miles per Rail Car (Annual) 60,231 Ton/Miles per Car
Route Miles 24,000Miles BNSF 2005 10K
* Defined as loaded miles traveled times weight of contents
How We Did It
Step 3: Estimate the Potential Revenues and EBITDA for the Subject
Ton Mile Capacity Calculation (annual) Tons per Rail Car X Rail Cars X miles 16,868,778,231 TonMiles
Revenues per Ton-Mile $0.0232 BNSF 2005 10K, 2006 10Q
Revenue Potential at Capacityfor Subject Rail Corridor $390,883,863 TonMiles times Price per TonMile
Percent EBITDA 30.6% BNSF 2006 10Q EBITDA, Value Line
EBITDA Potential at Capacity Utilizationfor the Northstar Corridor $119,545,860
Step 4 - Develop a Price to Earnings Ratio from the Public Market
EBITDA Potential at Capacity Utilizationfor the Northstar Corridor $119,545,860
Market Value of BNSF as of Valuation Date $26,739,174,000 Public Markets, average 3Q trailing
2006 EBITDA for BNSF Railroad $4,439,205,622 BNSF 2006 10Q EBITDA, Value Line
Price to EBITDA (from market stock price) 6.02
Market Value of 100% North Star Corridor $719,886,421
How We Did It
Step 5 - Estimate the Total Utilization of the Corridor by the Easement Acquisition
Market Value of 100% Corridor $719,886,421
Allocation of Corridor to Commuter Rail 15.4%
$110,553,986Rounded To Rounded To
$110,600,000
How We Did It