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Mater Ltd
1Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
CROP and “Levelized” Supply:
A National Pilot Project for
Sustainable Woody Biomass Removal from Public Forestlands
Presented byCatherine M. Mater
President—Mater EngineeringSenior Fellow – The Pinchot Institute for Conservation
Corvallis, Oregon; Washington, DCTel: 541-753-7335 Fx: 541-752-2952
E-mail: [email protected]
Mater Ltd
3Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Main political pressures (public perspective):
• Reduction of catastrophic wildfires – especially around urban interface areas
• Urgent focus on new renewable energy sources
• Early front-runner `silver bullet’ solutions on wind, ethanol … just about everything but woody biomass.
. . . and yet . . .
Mater Ltd
4Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
New energy goals cannot be achieved without woody biomass in the feedstock mix . . .
Unintended impacts already being felt as a result of push toward uni-feedstock use (corn for ethanol)
. . . not enough other feedstocks to satisfy demand
. . . higher food prices
. . . increased hunger in the poor
Mater Ltd
5Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Wildfires, fuel load, and carbon emissions . . . No small matter!
• 200,000 high risk acres could emit 16 million tons of CO2
• Equivalent to 30-40 tons of dry biomass going up in smoke per acre!
. . . most starting well outside urban interface areas
Mater Ltd
6Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
• . . . the projections for catastrophic wildfires have increased and fighting these fires is projected to consume over 35% of the entire USFS federal
• . . . President Bush proposed that the nation produce 35 billion gallons a year of biofuels by 2017. The Energy Policy Act requires that 7.5 billion gallons/year of biofuels be produced by 2012
• . . . biotechnology companies in the US that once focused on aspects of the drug discovery process have switched course and are now immersed in biofuels, which are expected to generate revenue in a much shorter time frame than drugs
Mater Ltd
7Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Transparency of information:
What? (landscape scale)
How much?
Where removed?
When?
How levelized?
Different stakeholders; same questionsEnergy Investor
Enviros
Sustainability:
Focus on small diameter
Coordination at landscape scale
NEPA
Road accessibility
Credibility:
Performance as planned
Monitor impacts
Update info
Mater Ltd
8Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
109.43
3005.55
4239.3
1888.58
0 53.75
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ashley NF: Sawtimber Sold(Total 6-yr = 9.2 mmbf)
1699.5
5134.06
6484.59
4233.92
2049.61 2302.33
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Volume Sold in Ashley NF 2000-2005(Total 6-yr. = 21.9 mmbf)
mbf
And woody biomass supply?
An unreliable proposition at best . . .
Erratic supply offering = high risk; low credibility
Mater Ltd
9Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
And perhaps not so surprising . . .
. . . coupled with biomass-to-energy projects typically not economically viable without value-added step to make bottom line work.
• No coordination between NF systems in regions
• No coordination between USFS ranger districts
• No coordination with other agencies in region with harvest activity (BLM, state, DOT, etc)
Mater Ltd
10Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Coordinated Resource Offering Protocol
Enter CROP!
Mater Ltd
11Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
What we expect from CROP
• Performance in removal vs performance in inventory
• Decreased cost/acre to remove through increased private investment
• Decreased litigation and appeals
• Acceleration of restoration of forest ecosystems
• Increased Congressional support
• Federal appropriations shift toward rewarding performance in small diameter removal
Mater Ltd
12Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
What we do not expect from CROP
• A static process and protocol . . . changes (improvements, adaptions) are essential!
Mater Ltd
13Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
What we asked for:
• Volume (by mmbf, green tons, ccf, etc.)
• Diameter sizes <4” 4”-7” 7”-9” 9”-12” >12”
• Species (all species evaluated for resource flow)
• Harvest “type”: fuel load reduction, timber sale, etc.
• Location of resource offering_________________________
• NEPA Phase
• Road accessibility} USFS Pilots
Mater Ltd
14Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
The CROP projects started in 2006 . . .
National Strategy Plan for Woody Biomass Utilization with USDA, DOI, DOE as partners. Plan initiates ten CROP pilots across the US that encompass over 25 million acres of public forestland.
Mater Ltd
15Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
SC CROP
2 circles
SC CROP
2 circles
2006 - 2007 National CROP Pilots
36 National Forests
105 Ranger Districts
41 BLM Districts
15 states
30 million acres of public lands
Just started
Mater Ltd
16Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
S. Oregon CROP :
Center Point: Lakeview100-mi. radius
Tahoe Region CROP :
Center Point: Nevada City, CA100-mi. radius
Mater Ltd
17Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
N. Utah CROP :
Center Point: Manila100-mi. radius
S. Utah CROP:
Center Point: Panguitch 125-mi. (N & S)
100-mi. (E & W)
Mater Ltd
18Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Colorado CROP :
Center Point: Kremmling100-mile radius
New Mexico CROP:
Center Point: Santa Fe 100-mi. radius
Mater Ltd
19Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
South Carolina 2 CROP:
Center Point: Saluda 50-mi. radius
South Carolina 1 CROP:
Center Point: Foreston 50-mi. radius
Mater Ltd
20Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Vermont New Hampshire
Vermont/ New Hampshire CROP :
Center Point: Hanover, NH75-mi. radius
Mississippi CROP :
Center Point: Mt. Olive100-miles N/S; 60 miles E/W
Mater Ltd
21Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Year Total Biomass
(1,179,924.7 gT)
% of 5-yr volume
2006 285,125 24%
2007 220,737 19%
2008 270,861 23%
2009 215,030 18%
2010 188,170 16%
Southern Oregon CROP Overall:
Total Small Log
(284.317 mmbf)
% of 5-yr volume
64.29 23%
57.27 20%
58.48 20%
54.33 19%
49.93 18%
Total Large Log
(283.949 mmbf)
% of 5-yr volume
66.64 23%
55.62 20%
55.78 20%
59.22 21%
46.69 16%
Large Logs = 35%(>12” dbh)
Small Logs = 35%(>7” – 12” dbh)
Biomass = 30%(up to 7” dbh)
65% of biomass offering in small diameter material
Mater Ltd
22Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Southern Oregon CROP results: . . . baseline for investor decisions
Locator map per specific supplier
Summary sheet
Detailed supply breakouts by volume, diameter, and year per supplier
Mater Ltd
23Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
BLM:
A Eagle Lake District (CA) (3.9 mmbf)* B Alturas District (CA) (5.09 mmbf) C Surprise District (CA) (.488 mmbf) D Burns District (OR) (5.381 mmbf) E Lakeview District (OR) (56.89 mmbf)
OR - DOF:
F DOF (33.136 mmbf) Fremont-Winema NF:
G SE Zone–Lakeview/Bly RDs (91.02 mmbf) H NE Zone–Silver Lake/Paisley RDs (68.78 mmbf) I SW Zone–Chiloquin/Klamath RDs (80.97 mmbf) J NW Zone–Chemult RD (86.42 mmbf)
Shasta-Trinity NF:
K Mt. Shasta-McCloud Mgt. Unit (134.75 mmbf) Modoc NF:
L Warner Mtn. RD (49.75 mmbf) M Devils Garden RD (35.84 mmbf) N Big Valley RD (56.5 mmbf) O Doublehead RD (13 mmbf)
Klamath NF:
P Goosenest RD (63.7 mmbf) OR - DSL:
Q DSL (18.639 mmbf) * 5-yr volume offering
Oregon: All Agencies CROP offering ‘06 – ‘10 (gT = 1,179,925 / S = 284.317 mmbf / L = 283.949 mmbf)
F
Q
H
P
E
I
G
J
O
M
K
B
N
A
L
C
D
Locator Map
Mater Ltd
24Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
F r e m o n t - W i n e m a N F : 4 Z o n e s – 4 0 % ( g T = 5 5 5 , 9 5 3 / S = 1 4 1 . 9 4 / L = 7 4 . 0 5 )
K l a m a t h N F : 1 R D – 8 % ( g T = 5 3 , 7 5 0 / S = 3 6 .1 5 / L = 1 6 . 8 )
S h a s t a - T r i n i t y N F : 1 R D – 1 7 % ( g T = 4 8 , 7 5 0 / S = 4 0 / L = 8 5 )
M o d o c N F : 4 R D s – 1 9 % ( g T = 4 3 6 , 7 0 0 / S = 2 1 . 8 4 5 / L = 4 5 . 9 )
O R - B L M : 2 d i s t r i c t s – 9 % ( g T = 7 9 , 2 7 0 / S = 2 9 .5 3 / L = 1 6 . 8 8 )
C A - B L M : 3 d i s t r i c t s – 1 % ( g T = 5 , 1 5 0 / S = 5 . 6 0 7 / L = 2 . 8 4 2 )
O R - D O F : 4 % ( g T = 2 2 4 / S = 5 . 9 1 / L = 2 7 . 1 8 1 )
O R - D S L : 2 % ( g T = 1 2 6 / S = 3 . 3 2 5 / L = 1 5 . 2 9 )
O r e g o n : A l l A g e n c i e s C R O P o f f e r i n g ‘ 0 6 – ‘ 1 0 ( g T = 1 , 1 7 9 , 9 2 5 / S = 2 8 4 .3 1 7 m m b f / L = 2 8 3 .9 4 9 m m b f )
g T = g r e e n t o n s ( u p t o 7 ” d b h ) S = s m a l l l o g m m b f ( > 7 ” - 1 2 ” d b h ) L = l a r g e l o g m m b f ( > 1 2 ” d b h )
02 04 06 08 010 012 014 016 018 02 0 0
mm
bf
2 0 06 2 0 07 2 0 08 2 0 09 2 0 10
O r e g o n - A l l A g e n c i e s : ( 5 - y r t o t a l = 8 0 4 . 2 5 m m b f )
2 3 5 . 9 8 5 m m b f i s < 7 " = 1 , 1 7 9 , 9 2 5 g T o f b i o m a s s 2 8 4 . 3 2 m m b f i s > 7 " - 1 2 " = s m a l l l o g s
2 8 3 . 9 5 m m b f i s > 1 2 " = l a r g e l o g s
>12 "
>9 " -12 "
>7 " -9 "
>4 " -7 "
<4 "
g TB i o m a s s S m a l l L o g L a r g e L o g
2 0 0 6 2 8 5 1 2 5 . 5 1 0 2 6 4 . 2 9 2 5 7 4 6 6 . 6 4 0 4 3 2 2 32 0 0 7 2 2 0 7 3 7 . 2 3 3 9 5 7 . 2 7 6 6 9 0 6 4 5 5 . 6 1 6 8 9 6 8 42 0 0 8 2 7 0 8 6 1 . 4 8 1 2 5 8 . 4 8 9 8 8 6 6 3 5 5 . 7 8 5 1 4 0 6 92 0 0 9 2 1 5 0 3 0 . 0 8 8 6 5 4 . 3 3 0 1 4 3 1 5 5 9 . 2 1 9 2 9 9 5 42 0 1 0 1 8 8 1 7 0 . 3 8 1 5 4 9 . 9 2 7 7 5 8 5 9 4 6 . 6 8 6 9 7 7 2 3
T o t a l s 1 1 7 9 9 2 4 . 6 9 5 2 8 4 . 3 1 7 0 5 2 7 2 8 3 . 9 4 8 7 4 6 5% 2 9 % 3 5 % 3 5 %
m m b f 2 3 5 . 9 8 4 9 3 9 18 0 4 . 2 5 0 7 3 8 3
m m b f
Summary Sheet
Mater Ltd
25Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
SE Zone (Lakeview-Bly RDs) - 26%
Ponderosa Pine: Fremont-Winema - NF 4 RDs – biomass offerings
Levelized supply?
(% of NF offering of 275,312 gT)
NE Zone (Silver Lake–Paisley RDs) - 23%
SW Zone (Chiloquin-Klamath RDs) - 35%
NW Zone (Chemult RD) - 16%
Fremont-Winema NF - SE Zone (Lakeview-Bly RDs): Ponderosa Pine
Total 5-yr Biomass (up to 7" dbh) by Specie (72,050.8 gT)
14653.64925
4129.125
22839.96
15214.056 15214.056
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
gt
Fremont-Winema NF - NE Zone (Silver Lake/Paisley RDs): Ponderosa Pine
Total 5-yr Biomass (up to 7" dbh) by Specie (64,206 gt)
12193.896 11703.12 11703.12
14303.12 14303.12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
gt
Fremont-Winema NF - SW Zone (Chiloquin-Klamath RDs): Ponderosa Pine
Total 5-yr Biomass (up to 7" dbh) by Specie (95,982 gt)
29035.76
16736.72 16736.72 16736.72 16736.72
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
gt
Fremont-Winema NF - SW Zone (Chemult RD): Ponderosa Pine
Total 5-yr Biomass (up to 7" dbh) by Specie (43,102 gt)
3608.82192.32
12433.72 12433.72 12433.72
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
gt
Mater Ltd
26Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
(% of total volume) 4”-7”
>7”-9”
>9”-12”
Ponderosa pine 22% 9% 28%
White fir 17% 8% 21%
Jeffrey pine 42% 3% 14%
Juniper 13% 18% 31%
Douglas fir 23% 17% 28%
Lodgepole pine 21% 12% 25%
Incense cedar 11% 12% 19%
Knobcone pine 11% 16% 21%
Sugar pine 25% 25% 26%
Other conifers 6% 7% 23%
A very good picture for small log processing with largest percentage of flow to be in the >9”-12” strata, and with an annual volume of ~ 57 mmbf.
<4”
11%
9%
14%
6%
7%
9%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mater Ltd
27Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
’01-’05(mmbf)
Thru ‘09(mmbf includes gT)
White fir 27.9 62.8
Incense cedar 7.07 0
Ponderosa pine 43.1 198.9
White pine .229 0
Other conifers 7.9 0
Lodgepole pine 12.3 65.4
Total 93.4 327.1
Is there a change? Yes!
Winema-Fremont NF
Mater Ltd
28Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
mmbf % of total
Approved 111.16 34%
In process 122.24 37%
Just started 30.25 9%
Not started 63.53 19%
Fremont-Winema NF: Total 5-yr volume (327.18 mmbf; includes gT as mmbf)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NEPA Process: Fremont-Winema NF Total 5-yr Volume (327.18 mmbf)
Over 70% of planned removal already NEPA approved or in process!
NEPA?
Mater Ltd
29Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
mmbf % of total
Approved 7.61 12%
In process 16.73 27%
Just started 32.55 52%
Not started 5.38 9%
OR-BLM: Total 5-yr volume (62.27 mmbf; includes gT as mmbf)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NEPA Process: OR-BLM Total 5-yr Volume (62.27 mmbf)
Almost 40% of planned removal already NEPA approved or in process!
NEPA?
Mater Ltd
30Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Southern Oregon
Northern Utah
Southern Utah
Colorado New Mexico
S. Carolina
(1)
S. Carolina
(2)NE
Biomass (gT) 1,179,925 239,348 274,512 273,726 1,040,968 433,620 354,000 81,597
Small log (mmbf)
284.3 97.36 149.65 279.1 77.3 65.2 102.12 72.58
Large log (mmbf)
283.95 38.53 78.15 128.1 22.65 38 194.86 67.87
5 year CROP volumes (gT)
Biomass and Small
log as a % of total
5-yr.
65% 79% 72% 72% 93% 77% 46% 57%
In proper perspective: enough biomass to build 17 new small log mills and 7 new large log mills
Tahoe MS
947,182 227,625
687.51 109.54
657.13 111.49
57% 58%
Mater Ltd
31Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit
Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007
Catherine M. Mater:President—Mater Engineering
Senior Fellow – The Pinchot Institute for ConservationCorvallis, Oregon; Washington, DC
tel: (541) 753-7335 fax: (541) 752-2952; cell: (541) 760-5526E-mail: [email protected]
For more information:
Edmund Gee:Nat'l Woody Biomass Utilization Team Leader
Nat'l Partnership Coordinator USFS Washington DC
tel: (202) 205-1787 fax: (202) 205-1045 cell: (202) 236-5153 E-mail: [email protected]