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U.S. FLOOD MODELIN
Clare SalustroManager, Model Product Management, Americas Climate
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Wherehave webeen?
Where arewe now?
Whatschanged?
Whatscoming?
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US FLOODTIMELINE
AUGUST2005
Hurricane Katrina$16.3 Bn NFIP loss
SEPTEMBER2008
Hurricane Ike$2.7 Bn NFIP loss
OCTOBER
Hurrica$7.8 Bn N
JUNE2012
Biggert-Waters NFIP Reform Act signed into law
JULY2013
MTA Cat Bond is first ever CatBondfor storm surge
JAN
PartialBigger
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Event Year
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Hurricane Sandy 2012
Hurricane Ike 2008
Hurricane Ivan 2004
Hurricane Irene 2011
Tropical Storm Alison 2001
Louisiana Flood 1995
Tropical Storm Isaac 2012
Hurricane Isabel 2003
Hurricane Rita 2005
Hurricane Floyd 1999
Tropical Storm Lee 2011
Hurricane Opal 1995
Hurricane Hugo 1989
Hurricane Wilma 2005
NFIP: TOP 15LOSSESFlood risk in U.S. isdominated by coastal flood
Event Year
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Hurricane Sandy 2012
Hurricane Ike 2008
Hurricane Ivan 2004
Hurricane Irene 2011
Tropical Storm Alison 2001
Louisiana Flood 1995
Tropical Storm Isaac 2012
Hurricane Isabel 2003
Hurricane Rita 2005
Hurricane Floyd 1999
Tropical Storm Lee 2011
Hurricane Opal 1995
Hurricane Hugo 1989
Hurricane Wilma 2005
Event Year
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Hurricane Sandy 2012
Hurricane Ike 2008
Hurricane Ivan 2004
Hurricane Irene 2011
Tropical Storm Alison 2001
Louisiana Flood 1995
Tropical Storm Isaac 2012
Hurricane Isabel 2003
Hurricane Rita 2005
Hurricane Floyd 1999
Tropical Storm Lee 2011
Hurricane Opal 1995
Hurricane Hugo 1989
Hurricane Wilma 2005
14 of top 15 NFIPclaims related toTropical Stormsand Hurricanes
Over half of total
NFIP payout(since programbegan in 1978)from just two
years 2005 and2012 driven bycoastal flood loss
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NFIP: LOSSHISTORYFlood risk in U.S. isdominated by coastal flood
SourceTotal NFIP Claims
in $Bn(1978-present)
Co
Flooding from hurricanes and tropical storms 36.5
Non-tropical cyclone-related flooding 5.7
TOTAL 42.2
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COASTALFLOODMODELING
ISNT EASY
Storm surge processes arecomplex
Must account for hurricanecharacteristics over lifetime of
storm
Must model at very high resolution
RMS approach has evolved overtime and was well validated byrecent events such as Sandy
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Cannot assume 1:1relationship between wind andsurge severity at landfall
Storm surge impacts can bemore severe than indicated bylandfall characteristics
Sandy (2012) Ike (2008) Katrina (2005)
ITS NOT JUST LANDFALL CHARACTERISTICS THAT M
Windspeed
(mph) at landfall
Surge height(feet)
22
2
20
12
18
16
14
10
8
6
4Cat 1
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5170
160
120
150
140
130
110
100
90
80
Cat 1
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
K
I
S
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Empirical Models
Lack of observations to trainon across all regions
Doesnt account for surgedevelopment over life ofstorm
Difficult to deal with complexcoast-lines, bays, andbarrier islands
DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO STORM SURGE MODEL
SLOSH
(Sea, Lake, and OverlandSurge from Hurricane)
Operationalfocus, widelyused for disaster planning
Not certified for FEMA floodmodeling studies
Grid resolution decreasesaway from central point
Hydrodynamic M
Physics-based catime-stepping stor
Considered best pFEMA flood modestudies
Can control grid reput fine resolutionwhere theyre nee
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Empirical Models
Lack of observations to trainon across all regions
Doesnt account for surgedevelopment over life ofstorm
Difficult to deal with complexcoast-lines, bays, andbarrier islands
DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO STORM SURGE MODEL
SLOSH
(Sea, Lake, and OverlandSurge from Hurricane)
Operationalfocus, widelyused for disaster planning
Not certified for FEMA floodmodeling studies
Grid resolution decreasesaway from central point
Hydrodynamic M
Physics-based catime-stepping stor
Considered best pFEMA flood modestudies
Can control grid reput fine resolutionwhere theyre nee
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NUMERICALAPPROACH:SUPERCOMPUTINGRESOURCESREQUIRED!
ReCPter
of dgeNoHusto
sto
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RMS SURGEMODELING:NESTED MESH
FRAMEWORK
TRACK SET WIND FI
REGIONAL MESH LOCAL MESH FLOOD DE
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Resolutions as fine as100m
Ability to model complexflows of water in and out ofbaysand harbors
Manage and underwritecoastal flood risk withconfidence, down to thelocal level
HIGH RESOLUTION COASTAL FLOOD MODELING
Detailed bathymetry and coastal topography: So
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ABLE TO MODEL REALISTIC COASTAL FLOODING
Previous model extent (parametric model) Current model extent (full hyd
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ABLE TO MODEL REALISTIC COASTAL FLOODING
Previous model extent (parametric model) Current model extent (full hyd
FEMA Flood ERMS St S M d l
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WELLVALIDATEDDURINGSANDY
RMS model asgood as best datadeveloped byFEMA
Verified againstover 200
independent floodobservations
FEMA Flood ERMS Storm Surge Model
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LESSONSLEARNEDFROM SANDY
High-value contents inbasements within centralbusiness district tookmany by surprise
Highlighted gaps in datacapture, limited
exposure information
Sandy Data Callcurrently underway
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!"#$ &'()#*"+,'&-."$ /0./
*"/)+1./)2 . 34##
($".&*, 2/'1& 241+)&'()# *"/' */2
0411*,.") &'()# 24*/)
5*+0 64.#*/$7 8)##9:)1*;)( &'()# 3'1
(1*:)1 '3 = ?''( #'22
@*.A'3 1*
,'.2
WHERE DOESTHIS LEAVEUS NOW?
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COASTAL FLOOD VIEW ALREADY AVAILABLE100-YEAR FLOOD ELEVATION: FEMA VERSUS RMS
FEMA
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Completingthe U.S.
Flood
Solution
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GOAL:Develop modeling solution covering allsources of flooding in US
! Tropical Cyclone Surge! Tropical Cyclone Precipitation! Non-Tropical Cyclone Precipitation
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GOAL:Develop modeling solution covering allsources of flooding in US
" Tropical Cyclone Surge! Tropical Cyclone Precipitation! Non-Tropical Cyclone Precipitation
Suite of US Flood products
" Storm Surge within Hur
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GOAL:Develop modeling solution covering allsources of flooding in US
" Tropical Cyclone Surge! Tropical Cyclone Precipitation! Non-Tropical Cyclone Precipitation
Suite of US Flood products
" Storm Surge within Hur! US Flood HD Model !
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GOAL:Develop modeling solution covering allsources of flooding in US
" Tropical Cyclone Surge! Tropical Cyclone Precipitation! Non-Tropical Cyclone Precipitation
Suite of US Flood products
" Storm Surge within Hur! US Flood Hazard Data ! US Flood HD Model
New US Inland Flood model (lower 48
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New US Inland Flood model (lower 48states) set to be released on RMS(one)
Probabilistic model is precipitation-driven
Includes tropical cyclone andnon-tropical cyclone precipitation
Covers both floodplain (major andminor) and off-floodplain (i.e. flashflooding) events
Continuous simulation accounts forantecedent conditions
U
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BY THENUMBERS
U.S
Entirecontiguous
US modeled:8 million
square km2
620,000km ofmajorrivers
160,000+ kmof defenses
12,000river
gauges
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Number of grid cells in
US Storm SurgeModel
Number of grid cells in
US Inland Flood Model
32 Mn 5.7 Bn
LARGEST MODEL EVER BUILT
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WHY NOW?
Not computationally possiblepreviously
Were able to do it nowbecause:
Migrated heavyprocessing fromconventional CPUs toGPUs gain of over 200x
RMS(one) reducesstorage need for client
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HD Simulation: Allows for continuoevents
Similar meteorological eventsvery different hazard & loss evo Antecedent conditions
influence the severity of
Able to capture clustering and New financial model enabled by Co
Definition Language (CDL)
Properly model hours clause aflood policy terms
Performance offered by the Cloud
BUILDINGMODELS INRMS(ONE)
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GeospatialData
StochasticEvent Module
HazardModule
VulnerabilityModule
Underlyingelevationdataset andderivativeelements
Defineprecipitation
years
Computeresultingflood
hazardfootprints
Calculate
damagebased onrisk item
character-istics
US FLOOD MODEL COMPONENTS
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High-Quality, High-Resolution Datais critical to flood modeling
Source resolution for elevatioimproves quickly
Using latest enhanced versioHydrography Dataset (NHD):
RMS spent several person-yedata layers
Fed findings back to NHproviders to help improvproduct
HIGH QUALITY INPUT DATA
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EXAMPLE QA TASK
Actual pathActual path
By comparing with Google Earth, corrected misplaced river segment in elevation
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PrecipitationRainfallRunoff
Routing Defense
Simulate the
source of theflooding:tropical
cyclone andnon-tropical
cyclone
Understandhow rainfallenters the
watersystems
Propagate thewater through
major andminor river
systems
Acco unt formitigation
measures andpossibil i ty offlood defense
failures
HAZARD SIMULATION APPROACH
Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Non-Tropical Cyclon
Sourc
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PrecipitationRainfallRunoff
Routing Defense
Simulate the
source of theflooding:tropical
cyclone andnon-tropical
cyclone
Understandhow rainfallenters the
watersystems
Propagate thewater throughmajor andminor river
systems
Acco unt formitigation
measures andpossibil i ty offlood defense
failures
HAZARD SIMULATION APPROACH
Comparison of 100 year model hazard with FEMA maps Memphis TN
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FEMA RMS
Comparison of 100 year model hazard with FEMA maps - Memphis, TN
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Coverage: 48 states & District of Columbia All sources of flooding:
o Coastal flooding from storm surgeo Tropical cyclone precipitationo Non-tropical cyclone precipitation
Return periods:o Multiple return periods, 20 years to 1000 yeo Catchments by hydrological regions
RMS(one) functionality:o Location-level underwriting, flood zone look
and severity with return period and flood de
o Accumulation managemento Flood hazard visualization
RMS FLOODHAZARD DATAPRODUCT
Comingsoon!
Example 200-year return period hazard ma
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RMS FLOODHAZARD DATAPRODUCT
Fully integrated intoRMS(one)
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RMS VS. FEMA: COMPARABLE BUT DIFFERENT
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RMS VS. FEMA: COMPARABLE BUT DIFFERENT
Return
Period(years)
FEMA FIRMsRMS Hazard Data
Product
FloodExtent
FloodElevation
FloodExtent
FloodElevation
20 ! !
50 ! !
100 ! !(BFEs) ! !
250 ! !
500 ! ! !
1000 ! !
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RMS VS. FEMA: COMPARABLE BUT DIFFERENT
Component FEMA FIRMsRMS Haza
Prod
Mapping methodology Varies by regionConsistent for 48 states
Geospatial data vintage(e.g., elevation)
Varies by region Current
Update frequencyVaries by region,sometimes > 20 years
Can incorporaquickly
Correlation with otherperils
n/aUses same evRMS North AtlHurricane mod
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Wherehave webeen?
Where arewe now?
Whats
changed?
Whatscoming?
RMS tools alrea
!and mo
NFIP reform will happen,eventually
Can the private market take onmore of the US flood risk?
