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SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
RenewableUK - Health and Safety 20121st February 2012
“The use of scenarios to evaluate future health and safety issues for wind energy”
John Reynolds
Background• Project for European Agency for Safety and
Health at Work (EU-OSHA) http://osha.europa.eu– EU-OSHA’s role is to help improve working conditions
in the European Union by providing technical, scientific and economic information to people involved in safety and health at work
• Working with the UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) and Technopolis Group
• Project – “Foresight of New and Emerging Risks to Occupational Safety and Health Associated with New Technologies in Green Jobs by 2020”
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2
Project scope
• Phase 1 (completed): Identification of key drivers of contextual change that could shape green jobs over the next 10 years
• Phase 2 (completed): Identification of key new technologies likely to impact on OSH in green jobs – negatively and positively
• Phase 3 (June 2011- March 2012):Development of plausible and consistent scenarios on how the key new technologies may evolve in the context of the changes induced by the key drivers and create emerging risks in green jobs by 2020
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
Key technologies• Wind Energy• Construction• Biotechnology/Bio-energy• Waste and recycling• Transport• Manufacturing and robotics• Energy
– Domestic and small scale energy – Battery technology– Energy storage and recovery– Energy transmission
Also horizontal technologies, e.g. nanomaterials1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4
What are scenarios?
• Stories that describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future
• Possible ‘paths’ to the future• Based on an analysis of drivers of change• Should be engaging, compelling and credible• Must have internal logic and consistency• Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined
elements to be separated• Not predictions or forecasts
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5
Main Drivers of Future Change
1. Economic Growth• Growth In Europe• Global Growth rates
2. Green Culture and Values• Public Opinion• Government Incentives and controls• Energy Efficiency and Resource Use• Waste Management and Recycling
3. Rate of Innovation in Green technology
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Scenario axes
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Scenario Win – Win Bonus World Deep Green
Economic Growth High High Low
Green Values Strong Weak Strong
Rate of Innovation in Green Technologies
High Medium - Medium +
Gre
en V
alu
es
Economic Growth
Deep GreenStrongly green
culture and values
Bonus World
Strong GrowthGlobal and European
Win - WinHigh Rate ofInnovation
in Green Technology
Ve
ry S
tron
g
Low Growth High Growth
We
ak
1/2/2012 8www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Gre
en V
alu
es
Economic Growth
Ve
ry S
tron
g
Low Growth High Growth
We
ak
Deep Green Win - Win
Bonus World
101/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Win - Win
Defined by• High economic growth• Strong Green Values• High rate of Innovation
in Green Technologies
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Win - Win
• Green growth is sustainable. • Green activities are seen as a major
contribution to economic growth rather than simply as a cost
• Technology is delivering on its promise to make green growth achievable.
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12
Strong Green Values
• Growing public concerns over climate change and other environmental threats
• Mandate for deeply green legislation • Green behaviour is strongly approved of• Better models show how vulnerable the human
race will be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services.
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13
High Innovation in Green Technology
• The trajectory of technology accelerates – More and more young engineers and
scientists qualify around the world, – Developments are propagated immediately
• Technology has made green growth achievable. Most innovations use fewer resources and less pollution.
• Energy science continues to deliver• The path to a zero-carbon future is now clear
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14
Occupational Safety and Health
• Higher investments in safety and health • Funds available to make infrastructure and
business processes safer and more accessible.• Environmental hazards are seen by society as of
particular concern• Many all-new green processes and enterprises,
most of which require new OSH procedures and training
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15
Occupational Safety and Health• New jobs and new products may bring new hazards
and risks at an ever-increasing speed. • Rapid roll-out of new technologies and products
mean that wider population may be exposed to any new hazards and risks in shorter timescales.
• OSH assessments needs to be done ever earlier in product development cycles – in order to catch issues before they have been
rolled out globally.• High pace of innovation is transforming the nature of
work, with an equally transformative potential effect on OSH.1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16
Bonus World
Defined by• High economic growth• Weak Green Values• Medium rate of
Innovation in Green Technology (directed towards profits)
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 19
Bonus World
• People will choose the route of increased prosperity – when faced with the costs of going green.
• Technology is helping the world to be more efficient in its use of resources – but this efficiency merely translates into
increased consumption• Carbon emissions and resource use are still
rising.– High resource price stimulate increased
supply
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20
Medium Innovation in Green Technology• Technology continues to advance, driven by the
profit motive• High levels of overall innovation• High growth allows capital-intensive inventions
to be implemented quickly.• Energy sciences continue to deliver,
– but it is not clear how or whether a zero-carbon future can be achieved without unacceptable compromises
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 21
Occupational Safety and Health• Funds available to make infrastructure and business
processes safer and more accessible.• Rapid roll-out of new technologies / products
– wider population exposed in shorter timescales. • OSH is of relatively low priority for most
governments. • New jobs and new products may bring new hazards
and risks.• OSH is seen by most employers as important in term
of its impact on profits• OSH by regulation may be more effective than OSH
by education1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22
Deep Green
Defined by• Low economic growth• Strong Green Values• Medium rate of
Innovation in Green Technologies
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 25
Deep Green
• A Green economy is achievable – but at the cost of economic growth.
• Sustainability and Greenness are valued by people more than economic growth
• Green activities are seen as a cost that needs to be borne.
• High taxes on pollution and carbon emissions• Technology is helping to deliver a green future
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 26
Strongly Green Values
• Growing public concern over climate change and other environmental threats
• Mandate for green legislation • Green behaviour is strongly approved of• Better models show how vulnerable the human
race may be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services
• Repeated resource shortages reinforce the need to be green
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 27
Medium Innovation in Green Technology • Technology continues to advance, driven by a
desire to achieve sustainability• Restricted levels of capital investment restrict
the adoption of capital-intensive innovations • Energy sciences continue to deliver
– but it is now clear that low economic growth is necessary to achieve a zero-carbon future
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 28
Occupational Safety and Health• Low growth may tempt employers to cut corners
and makes investing in safer and healthier infrastructure more difficult
• Slower roll-out of some new technologies and new products gives more time to assimilate new hazards and new risks.
• Many all-new green processes and enterprises, all of which require new OSH procedures and training
• Environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular concern
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 29
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 32
Pathways Win–Win Bonus World Deep Green
Amount of wind power
ExtensiveLimited, depending on the price of energy
Lots of wind power but less that Win–Win
LocationsDeep water offshore, in addition to traditional sites
Onshore, closer to cities. Planning rules relaxed.
Mostly Onshore
Less ambition and less off-shore than Win–Win
Turbines
Up to 20MW
Specialised marine designs.
5–7 MW
Standard turbine designs to minimise cost per unit output
3-5MW
Smaller turbines
Grid connection
Extensive interconnectors Continental supergrid
Direct to connections to areas of greatest consumption
Storage buffers rather than the Supergrid
Existing wind farms
Sites get repowered Decommissioning Issues
Old turbines kept going as long as possible
Health and Safety Conclusions• New and emerging risk in each scenario are a
combination of the different social and economic conditions with the respective technology pathway
• Scenarios have provided a framework for discussion between experts in technology and health and safety – leading to new insights
• Realisation that some technology pathways and targets are particularly scenario dependant
• Main health and safety implications to be reviewed at European workshop in March
1/2/2012 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 33