Sample Sustainable Energy

8/14/2019 Sample Sustainable Energy

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A Sustainable Energy Scenariothrough 2020 based on PV & Wind, Bio-Fuel,Nuclear

EWG Business Network

Hong Kong, 4th Sept. 2007

By Lim Man Onn

CEO, Partnership for Equitable Growth


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Contents

PV & Wind Power

Bio-Fuel

Nuclear Energy

Conclusion


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Bio-Fuel

Nuclear Energy

Conclusion

PV & Wind Power

01_ PV (Photovoltaic)

02_ Wind Power

03_ Prospect and Segment


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PV (Photovoltaic)

Manufacture Process

Poly-CrystallineSilicon Ingot

Module

Cell

Design & Installation

Wafer

. PV & Wind


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Cumulative installed PV Power (in IEAs reportingcountries)

PV (Photovoltaic) . PV & Wind

Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

3,700

2,607

1,828

1,334

989

729

520396314

245199164136110

Annu

algrow

thof3

8.39

%


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Total installed PV Power by 2005 (in IEAs reporting countries)




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PV yearly module production by regions


Source : PHOTON Internatial, The Photonvoltail Magazine, 2005.3

60.1 69.4 77.788.7

125.8 153.2202.2

287.7

390.5

559.6

761.9

1,256

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04Year

Production

(MWp)

USA Japan Europe China Rest Total

Annualgrowthof13%

Annu

algrowth

of

37.2%

Country 2003 2004 Growth AmountGrowth Rate

USA 109.0 141.5 32.5 29.8

Japan 365.4 594.1 228.7 62.6

Europe 202.3 344.1 141.8 70.1

China 10.3 38.0 27.7 268.9

Rest 74.9 138.1 75.9 101.3

Total 761.9 1,256.0 494.1 64.9

1,532

(05)

Growth 2005/2004 of 22%Growth 2005/2004 of 22%


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PV Production by company



56% of PV module production from Japanese companies56% of PV module production from Japanese companies

Share of PV module production by company in 2005 (%)Share of PV module production by company in 2005 (%)


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Indicative installed PV system price in 2005



-7.4--Germany

5.8~7.26.8~8.89.6~12.012.0~16.0Switzerland

10.48.3~10.3-12.3Canada

6.2~6.86.2~7.412.3~24.718.5Austria

7.67.6~10.714.516.8Australia

> 10 kW 1 kW< 1 kW

6.66.0--Japan

6.8~8.67.4~9.914.8~17.314.8~18.5Italy

-->11.010.0Israel

6.2~19.18.5~27.610.0~17.310.0~17.3UK

5.68.114.8~25.918.5~29.6France

8.3~16.75.5~13.325.0~33.311.7~15.0Denmark

5.96.8~7.4--Netherlands6.9--12.4~16.5Mexico

9.69.619.521.5Korea

6.5~9.07.0~10.012.0~20.012.0~25.0USA

6.712.4~17.1-13.4Sweden

-12.4~17.1-15.5~23.3Norway

On-Grid (per W)Off-Grid (per W)Country

[UNIT : USD]


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Summary

Cost accelerates

The tremendous growth of PV business

Lack of raw material of poly silicon that is the same as for producing

semiconductor grade silicon

High growth expectation

The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 39.72%

Japan and Europe are driving PV system installation continuously

Most of the countries are interested in renewable energy to replace

oil consumption and solve global warming

Scenario : Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.

Scenario : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.


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Wind Power . PV & Wind

Annual Generation from Wind (in IEAs reporting countries)

Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005

Annua

lgrowth

of3

1.10

%

The IEA 20 developed countrieshad 87% of the world installedwind power (2005)


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National statistics in 2005

0.48421.902,394.01,7301,445446.801,337.16UK

0.733,838.6028,051.01,5007,2002,431.009,149.00USA

3.7047.971,773.02,100743529.001,060.00Portugal

0.40126.00504.02,300129110.00270.00Norway

1.695118.002,000.01,3581,733140.001,213.00Netherlands

0.002183.904.2080.002.20Mexico

0.591468641,00075948.00452.00Sweden

7.79259.9520,236.01,320NDA1,630.0010,028.00Spain

0.01461.308.4584342.9211.59Switzerland

18.5035.726,614.01,2005,2934.003,128.00Denmark

0.34538.001,800.01,700681239.00683.00Canada

NDANDANDANDANDA212.00819.00Austria

1.143190.002,171.01,750447328.00708.00Australia

2.5226.01655.01,000321204.60492.7Ireland

2.4951.001,270.01,188926121.10605.40Greece4.34611.0026,500.01,72317,5921,808.0018,428.00Germany

0.2084.90170.01,030940.0082.00Finland

0.17865.401,438.71,3001,048150.801,077.70Japan

0.65329.002,140.01,1962,258452.001,717.00Italy

1,352

1,700

(kW)

Average newturbinecapacity

40,752

41

(turbines)

Total No. ofTurbines

8,927.22

70.00

(MW)

Annual newwind capacity

51,363.75

100.00

(MW)

Total installedwind capacity

1.198,293.9698,739.3Totals

0.04359.31146Korea

(%)(TWh)(GWh)

% of national

electricitydemand from

wind

Nationalelectricitydemand

Windgeneratedelectricity

IEA

Country


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Increasing average size of new turbine installed (IEA wind member

countries)

Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005


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Many European countries have established high targets for

wind power generation

25% CO2 emissions reduction by 2005 (from 1990 levels)Germany

20% of electricity consumption (end of 2003)Denmark

31% of electricity consumption by 2010. 8.4TWh/year. 500 MW approx.Finland

3.2% of electricity generated by 2010. capacity of 500MW (in 2005)Ireland

10% electricity supplied by 2010, subject to cost to consumer being acceptableUK

12% of primary energy demand by 2010. 13,000MW installed wind power by 2011Spain

7TWh per year of electricity. 3TWh per year from wind energy (approx. 1,000MW) by2010

Norway

5% of energy by 2010 (9% of electricity) rising to 10% of energy by 2020. 1,500MW ofwind power by 2010

Netherlands

2,500MW (eq. Avoided 3.4 m tons CO2 emissions based on wind power)Italy

1,500 MW wind power by 2010Greece

50~100GWh by 2010 from wind powerSwitzerland

10TWh per year by 2015Sweden

39% of electricity consumption by 2012. 3,750MW of wind powerPortugal


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Summary

Growth expectation

The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 31.10%

Turbine size is getting bigger, now 5MW turbine now commercial

Wind power is the most competitive among renewable energy

The competitive factors

Electricity generation from wind is almost 10 times as much as PV

power

Wind power has economic feasibility itself without subsidy from

government

Plenty of national incentive programs

Scenario : Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.

Scenario : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.


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Prospect and Segment . PV & Wind

Convert electricity from PV & Wind to TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent)

PV generated electricity in 2005

- Cumulative installed PV power : 3,895 MW

Assumption : IEA countries of 3,700 MW had 95% of the world installed PV power

- Average Efficiency : 17%

- Average generating time a day : 3.5 hours

Generated Electricity : 846 GWh

Wind power generated electricity in 2005

- Generated electricity : 113,493 GWh

Assumption : applied the 87% of IEA countries installed in worldwide to the same % of the generated

electricity in 2005

PV generated Power : 188,000 TOEWind generated Power : 25,220,666 TOE

* One TOE : 12 MWh

* Average efficiency : 37.5%


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Scenario : aggressive growth case

2.901.160.470.23PV

391.47157.3263.2230.49Wind Power

6,513.675,618.744,846.784,306.30ConsumptionWorldElectricity

14,637.4813,257.6112,007.8310,878.50ConsumptionWorldPrimary

Energy

6.05%2. 82%1.31%0.71%Ratio

2.69%1.20%0.53%0.28%Ratio

158.49

2015

394.3763.6930.72Total

202020102006(Million Toe)

* Assumption

- PV & Wind growth rate : 20%

- World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)

- World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020),

Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)


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Aggressive Penentration of PV & Wind Power

0.71%

1.31%

2.82%

6.05%

0.28%0.53%

1.20%

2.69%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

2006 2010 2015 2020

year

Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio


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Scenario : moderate growth case

1.530.760.380.23PV

206.75102.7951.1129.22Wind Power

6,513.675,618.744,846.784,306.30ConsumptionWorldElectricity

14,637.4813,257.6112,007.8310,878.50ConsumptionWorldPrimary

Energy

3.20%1.84%1.06%0.68%Ratio

1.42%0.78%0.43%0.27%Ratio

103.55

2015

208.2851.4829.44Total

202020102006Million Toe

* Assumption

- PV & Wind growth rate : 15%

- World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)


Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)


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Moderate Penentration of PV & Wind Power

0.68%

1.06%

1.84%

3.20%

0.27%0.43%

0.78%

1.42%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

2006 2010 2015 2020

year

Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio


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Nuclear Energy

Conclusion

Bio-Fuel

01_ Bio-Diesel

02_ Bio-Ethanol

03_ Activities around the world


PV & Wind Power


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Feed Stocks

Jatropha oil : India

Palm oil : Indonesia, Malaysia (produce 80% of the total palm oil)

Soybean oil : The United States of America

Rapeseed and Sunflower oil : Europe

Jatropha Palm Fruit

Key Raw

Material

. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel


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Feed Stock Production per Hectare & Cost of Bio-diesel Production

433,000IndiaJatropha Oil

465,000MalaysiaPalm Oil

781,000EuropeRapeseed Oil

73375USASoya Oil

Rate per barrel

(US$)

Yield/ha

(kg)CountryFeed Stock


Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India (http://www.jatrophaworld.org)

Bio-diesel is clean fuel with high cetane index of 46~70


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Full Option Model



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Jatropha : Uses


- Source of oil suitableas fuel for diesel engine

- Useful as illumitant,ubricant, in soap and

candle making

- Used as medicine

Seeds

- Used as

ethnomedicine

- Used for makingink

Latex

- Used as medicine

- Used as Dataun

(Herbal tooth

brush)

- Young one

cooked and eaten

- Used as

ethnomedicine

- Used as

ethnomedicine

- Prevent water

erosion and for

conservation

- useful in controlling

sand drift

- possess Allelopathic

properties

TwigLeavesRootsWhole plant

Main purpose cultivating Jatropha is to produce bio-diesel


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Jatropha : Crop Yield


Yield : 2.0 ~ 12.5 tons/ha/year

It is difficult to estimate unequivocally the yield of a plant

growing in different climatic and soil conditions

1.751.250.75Yr_3

1.501.000.50Yr_2

2.752.001.10Yr_5

2.251.750.90Yr_4

0.400.250.10Yr_1

HighNormalLow

Without

Irrigation

5.005.004.25Yr_3

3.001.501.00Yr_2

12.508.005.25Yr_5

8.006.255.25Yr_4

2.501.250.75Yr_1

HighNormalLow

[Unit : ton per Hectare]With Irrigation

Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India(http://www.jatrophaworld.org)


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Jatropha : Bio-Diesel Perspective

There is no statistics of Jatropha for biodiesel but India

has started cultivating Jatropha in huge areas and its

target is to replace 5% of diesel consumption.

3,000,0002,000,0001,000,000400,000Vietnam

2,000,0001,200,000600,000200,000Cambodia

15,000,0008,400,0004,200,0001,600,000Total

2,000,0001,200,000600,000200,000Indonesia

8,000,0004,000,0002,000,000800,000India

2020201520122010Country

Conservative conversion : two tones of biodiesel = one hectare

[Unit : ton]


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Palm Oil : Production Forecast


Palm Oil represents 30% of the world vegetable oil.

Malaysia and Indonesia produce over 80% of the world

palm oil production.

Forecast of world Palm Oil Production

12,686,417

57,088,878

2015

16,191,4419,940,1408,177,778Area (ha)

72,861,48344,730,63036,800,000(#)World Palm Oil (ton)

202020102006

* Assumption

- Annual growth rate : 5%

- Average 4.5 tones of palm oil yield per hectare (ranges from 4~6 tonnes per hectare)

* Source : Korean Energy Economics Institute

# : Indonesia produced 17 million ton of palm oil in 2006 and represents 43% of world production


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-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

2006 2010 2015 2020

Aggressive

Moderate


5,708,888

11,417,776

2015

7,286,1484,473,063360,00010% targetModerate

14,572,2978,946,126360,00020% targetAggressive

202020102006

* Assumption

- Aggressive growth : 1% conversion(2006), 20%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel

- Moderate growth : 1% conversion(2006), 10%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel

Palm Oil : Bio-Diesel Growth Perspective


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Feedstocks for Biodiesel


Vegetable oil & Biodiesel feedstock Ratio and Production(2005)

ShareVolume (TOE)

100%

33,000

425,000

2,716,000

65,00033,000

Bio-Diesel

83%14%Rapeseed

100%100%Total

13%8%Sunflower

2%31%Soybean1%33%Palm

3%Coconut

4%Cotton seed

5%Peanut

1%Other

2%Olive

Vegetable OilFeedstock

Source : 1) IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007), 2) KIER

Global production was 3.9 bn litres (3.272 m TOE) in 2005


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Bio-Diesel trends by region


Source : F.O. Lichts

Million litres capacity


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Prospect and Segment : Aggressive growth case


5,645,8704,423,6873,466,0742,851,548Rapeseed

14,572,29711,417,7768,946,126360,000Palm Oil

884,293692,867542,879446,628Sunflower seed

15,000,0008,400,0001,600,000-Jatropha

136,045106,59583,52068,712Soybean

25,040,924

2015

36,238,50514,638,5993,734,888Total

202020102006

* Assumption

-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards

- Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 20% from 2010

- Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate

[Unit : ton]


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Prospect and Segment : Moderate growth case


5,645,8704,423,6873,466,0742,851,548Rapeseed

7,286,1485,708,8884,473,063360,000Palm Oil

884,293692,867542,879446,628Sunflower seed

15,000,0008,400,0001,600,000-Jatropha

136,045106,59583,52068,712Soybean

19,332,036

2015

28,952,35610,165,5363,734,888Total

202020102006

* Assumption

-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards

- Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 10% from 2010

- Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate

[Unit : ton]


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Feedstock specifications

. Bio-FuelBio-Ethanol

Feedstock production, costs, and emission data for bioethanol and

bio-diesel production

CO, NOxCOCOCOPollutant abatement

1.0 (b)0.3-0.50.60.6-0.8Production cost ($/lge)

18 BrazilN/A19.5 US,

5.0 China

Installed capacity

(bn l/year)

709050-6015-25CO2 reduction (%c)

N/A3,000-6,0002,000-4,0001,500-3,000Land use (lge/ha)

Heat & PowerHeat & Power--Co-products

(a)10-12N/A60-80Fossil energy input (%)

Ligno-celluolsic

Sugar caneSugar beetsCereals,maize

(a) Energy input may be higher than final ethanol energy, but most such energy comes from the biomass itself.

(b) Twice gasoline cost at $60/bbl. (c) Compared with gasoline (2.8 kg CO2/l) or conventional diesel.

Source : IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007)


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Key factors

Can be blended to at least 10% in vehicles in OECD countries

; are blended up to 25% in Brazil

Costs for creating fuel-flexible vehicles (can run on any

mixture of ethanol and gasoline) are on the order of 100-

200 per vehicle ; many such vehicles in U.S.

Low-level ethanol blends reduce emissions of most

pollutants,

but can increase others (e.g. hydrocarbons, aldehydes).

Positive on net basis.


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Source : IEA estimates based on a review of recent studies

Reductions in well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions per km, from

biofuels, compared to gasoline(for ethanol) and diesel fuel (for biodiesel)

Greenhouse Gas Reductions


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Productions

Worldwide, Fuel Ethanol Production is Much Greater than Biodiesel.

Unit : million litres per year

Note : source IEA Bioethanol 33 bn litres, Biodiesel 3.9 bn litres (2005)


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Productions

Fuel Ethanol Production Trends by Region


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Source : projections based on IEA review of recent policy initiatives around the world

Possible Production Scenario

Bio-Ethanol Production : Past and Future?


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EU : targeting 5.75% of motor fuel use by 2010

US : legislation still pending that could increase ethanol use

by 2010 to around 5% of gasoline; strong price incentive

already in place

India : 5% ethanol blending required in some regions;

eventually whole country

Latin America : new production initiatives in many countries;

export orientation

Many other countries have recently announced various

incentives and targets

. Bio-FuelActivities around the world


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Prospect and Segment . Bio-Fuel

36.23925.04114.6393.735Bio-Diesel

76.38954.46538.83229.625Bio-Ethanol

1,750.3171,665.3671,584.5391,470.865ConsumptionWorld

Diesel


Gasoline

2.07%1.50%0.92%0.25%Ratio

(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)

5. 71%4.28%3.20%2.63%Ratio

(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)

79.505

2015

112.62853.47133.360Total

202020102006

* Assumption

- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on aggressive prospect of Bio-Diesel

- Bio-Ethanol : 7% of annual growth rate

- Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011

- Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011

[Unit : m TOE] Scenario : aggressive growth case


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Aggressive Penentration of Biofuel Energy

0.25%

0.92%

1.50%

2.07%

2.63%

3.20%

4.28%

5.71%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

2006 2010 2015 2020

year

Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio


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28.95219.33210.1663.735Bio-Diesel

57.55945.09935.33629.071Bio-Ethanol


Diesel


Gasoline

1.65%1.16%0.64%0.25%Ratio

(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)

4.30%3.54%2.92%2.58%Ratio

(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)

64.431

2015

86.51245.50232.806Total

202020102006

* Assumption

- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on moderate prospect of Bio-Diesel

- Bio-Ethanol : 5% of annual growth rate

- Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011

- Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011

[Unit : m

TOE]



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Moderate Penentration of Biofuel Energy

0.25%

0.64%

1.16%

1.65%

2.58%2.92%

3.54%

4.30%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

2006 2010 2015 2020year

Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio


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PV & Wind Power

Bio-Fuel

Conclusion

Nuclear Energy

01_ Nuclear Advantage

02_ Production



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Coal is environmentally not benign and causes

global warming and acid rain

Gas is very difficult to be transported in large quantities

Renewable Energy is not cost effective and does not

contribute significantly to reduce fossil fuel

Nuclear is the next best alternative energy source with

potential for scaling up

Nuclear Advantage . Nuclear Energy

Nuclear Energy is the best Alternative Energy to replace

Fossil Fuel


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Production . Nuclear Energy

Nuclear Power has represented the main production of

the world electricity generation.

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.012000.0

14000.0

16000.0

18000.0

20000.0

Nuclear World Electricity

Source : BPs statistical review full report workbook 2007


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Prospect and Segment . Nuclear Energy

Forecast of growth rate

- 437 working reactors operating worldwide currently

; the average unit capacity : 815 MW(utilization rate : 90%)

- 30 under construction

- 74 planned and 182 proposed

- Construction period : approx. 5 years

- Recent single unit capacity : 1,600 MW (Olkiluoto, Filand)

- China started to build nuclear power stations

; 11 reactor operating, 4 under construction, 23 in the planning stages and

54 proposed

The annual growth rate of nuclear power generation will

enter a step change post 2010 period when new pebblebed reactor technology will be globally applied

2% of growth rate : 2006~2010

10% of growth rate : 2011~2020


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. Nuclear Energy

1,784.21,107.8687.9635.5Nuclear Generation

6,513.75,618.74,846.84,306.3Consumption

Electricity

14,637.513,257.612,007.810,878.5ConsumptionPrimary

Energy

27.39%19.72%14.19%14.76%Ratio

12.19%8.36%5.73%5.84%Ratio

2015 202020102006

* Assumption

- Nuclear Energy growth rate : 2.0%(2006~2010), 10.0%(2011~2020),Production in 2006 : 635.5 m TOE (2,808.1 TWh)

- World Electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2006 : 4,306.3 m TOE (19,027.7 TWh)


Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE

Prospect and Segment

[Unit : m

TOE]

Aggressive growth scenario


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Prospect and Segment . Nuclear Energy

Aggressive Penentration of Nuclear Energy

5.84% 5.73%

8.36%

12.19%

14.76% 14.19%

19.72%

27.39%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

2006 2010 2015 2020year

Primary Energy Ratio Electricity Ratio

Aggressive growth scenario


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Perspective of EnergyConsumption

. Conclusion

ShareShareShareShare

3.35%507.01. 76%238.00.97%117.20.59%64.1PV&Wind : 20%

Biofuels : 7%Renewables

23.63%3,579.327. 52%3,713.529.93%3,629.328.24%3,090.1balanceCoal

25.72%3,894.824.89%3,359.723.90%2,898.123.53%2,574.93%Gas

6.00%907.96.09%822.36. 14%744.86.29%688.12%Hydroelectricity

29.52%4,471.231.52%4,254.233.38%4,047.735.55%3,889.81%Oil

1,784.3

15,144.5

2020

687.9

12,125.0

2010

5.81%

100%

635.5

10,942.5

2006

2.0%(06-10)

10.0%(11-20)

2.5%(06-10)

2.0%(11-20)

AnnualGrowth Rate

11.78%8.21%1,107.95.67%Nuclear

100%100%13,495.6100%Primary Energy

2015Items

Scenario : aggressive growth case for renewables

[Unit : mTOE]


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. Conclusion


0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

2006 2,010.0 2015 2020(Year)

Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables


54/57

54


. Conclusion


1.95%294.81.24%168.00.80%97.00.57%62.2PV&Wind : 15%Biofuels : 5%

Renewables

23.63%3,579.327.52%3,713.529.93%3,629.328.24%3,090.1Same of

aggressiveCoal

25.72%3,894.824.89%3,359.723.90%2,898.123.55%2,574.93%Gas

6.00%907.96.09%822.36.14%744.86.29%688.12%Hydroelectricity

29.52%4,471.231.52%4,254.233.38%4,047.735.55%3,889.81%Oil

1,996.5

15,144.5

2020

708.1

12,125.0

2010

5.82%

100%

637.4

10,942.5

2006

balance

Same ofaggressive

AnnualGrowth Rate

13.18%8.73%1,177.95.84%Nuclear

100%100%13,495.6100%Primary Energy

2015Items

Scenario : moderate growth case for renewables[Unit : m

TOE]


55/57

55


. Conclusion


0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

2006 2010 2015 2020(Year)

Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables


56/57

56

. Conclusion


0.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00Renewables

45.42%18,204.348.45%18,887.049.95%18,458.647.56%15,716.75.086 tonCO2

/TOECoal

20.34%8,151.718.04%7,031.816.42%6,065.716.31%5,389.32.093 tonCO2

/TOEGas

0.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00Hydroelectricity

34.25%13,726.733.51%13,060.433.63%12,426.636.13%11,941.73.070 tonCO2

/TOEOil

0.0

40,082.7

2020

0.0

36,950.8

2010

0.00%

100%

0.0

33,047.6

2006

0

total

CO2 Emission

Factors

0.00%0.00%0.00.00%Nuclear

100%100%38,979.2100%Primary Energy

2015Items

[Unit : m ton]

COemission factor source : emission factor brochure 2004 by IPCC

Perspective of CO2 Emission


57/57

Perspective of CO2 Emission . Conclusion

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2006 2010 2015 2020

Year

GasOil

Coal

Total

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