November 2013 Monthly Snapshot One-Year Change in One-Year Change in Median Sales Price Single Family Median Sales Price Condo/TIC/Coop 2 Monthly Indicators + 20.4% + 6.5% + 13.1% One-Year Change in November was largely another encouraging month for residential real estate. Our attention has shifted from multiyear high prices and sales volumes to seller activity, inventory levels and building permits. And let's not forget the calendar effect. As families gather together, fewer house hunters are scheduling showings and writing offers. Watch for month-to-month activity to moderate while year-over-year comparisons remain strong. New Listings were down 13 3 percent for single family homes and 13 7 percent Median Sales Price All Property Types Residential real estate activity in San Francisco County (Districts 1-10), comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures. Single Family Activity Overview 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 New Listings were down 13.3 percent for single family homes and 13.7 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Pending Sales decreased 15.5 percent for single family homes and 0.7 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. The Median Sales Price was up 20.4 percent to $975,000 for single family homes and 6.5 percent to $825,500 for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.0 percent for single family units and 30.4 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop units. Recent economic and jobs data have surprised to the upside by exceeding expectations. This likely keeps the new Federal Reserve leadership on track for March 2014 tapering. Non-farm payrolls grew by 204,000 jobs in October, outperforming Wall Street expectations. In another bullish sign, August payrolls were revised upward to a 238,000 job gain – positive momentum that should support housing recovery. Just in time for the holidays. Single Family Activity Overview Months Supply of Inventory Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. Condo/TIC/Coop Activity Overview Inventory of Active Listings % of Properties Sold Over List Price % of List Price Received Housing Affordability Ratio All Properties Activity Overview New Listings Pending Sales Sold Listings Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Days on Market Until Sale Activity by District
Transcript
November 2013 Monthly Snapshot
One-Year Change in One-Year Change inMedian Sales Price
Single FamilyMedian Sales Price Condo/TIC/Coop
2
Monthly Indicators
+ 20.4% + 6.5% + 13.1%One-Year Change in
November was largely another encouraging month for residential real estate. Our attention has shifted from multiyear high prices and sales volumes to seller activity, inventory levels and building permits. And let's not forget the calendar effect. As families gather together, fewer house hunters are scheduling showings and writing offers. Watch for month-to-month activity to moderate while year-over-year comparisons remain strong.
New Listings were down 13 3 percent for single family homes and 13 7 percent
Median Sales Price All Property Types
Residential real estate activity in San Francisco County (Districts 1-10), comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Single Family Activity Overview 23456789
10111213141516
New Listings were down 13.3 percent for single family homes and 13.7 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Pending Sales decreased 15.5 percent for single family homes and 0.7 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties.
The Median Sales Price was up 20.4 percent to $975,000 for single family homes and 6.5 percent to $825,500 for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.0 percent for single family units and 30.4 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop units.
Recent economic and jobs data have surprised to the upside by exceeding expectations. This likely keeps the new Federal Reserve leadership on track for March 2014 tapering. Non-farm payrolls grew by 204,000 jobs in October, outperforming Wall Street expectations. In another bullish sign, August payrolls were revised upward to a 238,000 job gain – positive momentum that should support housing recovery. Just in time for the holidays.
Single Family Activity Overview
Months Supply of Inventory
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
Condo/TIC/Coop Activity Overview
Inventory of Active Listings% of Properties Sold Over List Price% of List Price ReceivedHousing Affordability Ratio
All Properties Activity Overview
New ListingsPending SalesSold ListingsMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PriceDays on Market Until Sale
Activity by District
Single Family Activity OverviewKey metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month* Median Sales Price for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Historical Average Sales Price by Month* Average Sales Price for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month* Days on Market for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
670
859
441
602
342
445
November
2011 2012 201326 1%29 9%22 4%34 2%
2011 2012 2013
23 7% 30 0%12 Month Avg 415 22.6% 577 18.4%
Historical Inventory of Active Listings by Month* Active Listings for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Historical % of Properties Sold Over List Price by Month* % of Properties Sold Over List Price for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
101.0% 98.6%106.4%
102.5%108.8%
105.1%
November
100.1% 98.3%104.4% 101.5%
110.1%105.5%
Year to Date
2011 2012 2013
2 5%4 0%2 3%5 3%
2011 2012 2013
1 5% 0 7%2011 2012 2013
+ 3 9%3 3%5 5%4 3%
2011 2012 2013
0 7% 0 1%12 Month Avg 109.7% +5.5% 105.2% +3.8%
Historical % of List Price Received by Month* % of List Price Received for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
Single Family Condo/TIC/Coop Single Family Condo/TIC/Coop
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
74
81
6770
55
64
November
2011 2012 2013
8 6%13 6%17 9%9 5%
2011 2012 2013
15 6% + 15 7%
72
79
7176
5864
Year to Date
2011 2012 2013
15 8%3 8%18 3%1 4%2011 2012 2013
12 5% + 8 2%12 Month Avg 58 23.0% 71 14.6%
Historical Housing Affordability Ratio by Month* Affordability Ratio for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13
The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
3.2
4.0
2.02.3
1.6 1.6
November
2011 2012 201330 4%42 5%20 0%37 5%
2011 2012 2013
28 9% 36 5%12 Month Avg 1.9 25.1% 2.1 29.5%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month* Months Supply for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 14
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 15
Months Supply 2.2 1.6 - 27.3% -- -- --
Affordability Ratio 53 48 - 9.4%
% of List Price Received 104.4% 106.8% + 2.3% 102.8%
58
70.6% + 36.6%
+ 4.6%
49 - 16.7%
107.5%
% of Properties Sold Over List Price 60.5% 69.2% + 14.4% 51.7%
Active Listings 1,043 787 - 24.5% --
Days on Market 47 38 - 19.1% 58 38 - 34.5%
-- --
11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013
11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013
11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013
11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013
11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013
11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013
11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013
Activity by District
SF District 1: Northwest (Sea Cliff, Lake, Jordan Park / Laurel Heights, Outer Richmond, Central Richmond, Inner Richmond, Lone Mountain)
SF District 2: Central West (Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights)
SF District 3: Southwest (Pine Lake Park, Lake Shore, Merced Manor, Stonestown, Lakeside, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview)
SF District 4: Twin Peaks W (Forest Hill (& Ext), W Portal, St Francis Wd, Balboa Terr, Mt Dav Manor, Ingleside Terr, Monterey Hts, Wstwd Pk & H'lnds, Shrwd Fst, Miraloma Pk, Dmnd Hts, Mdtwn Terr)
SF District 5: Central (Haight Ashbury, Cole Vly / Prnssus Hts, Clarndn Hts, Corona Hts, Twin Pks, Glen Pk, Noe Vly, Eureka Vly / Dolores Hts, Mission Dolores, Duboce Trngl, Buena Vista / Ashbury Hts)
SF District 6: Central North (Lower Pacific Heights, Anza Vista, Western Addition, North Panhandle, Alamo Square, Hayes Valley)
SF District 7: North (Marina, Cow Hollow, Presidio Heights, Pacific Heights)
SF District 8: Northeast (North Waterfront, North Beach, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill, Nob Hill, Financial District / Barbary Coast, Downtown, Van Ness / Civic Center, Tenderloin)
SF District 9: Central East (Yerba Buena, South Beach, South of Market, Mission Bay, Inner Mission, Potrero Hill, Central Waterfront / Dogpatch, Bernal Heights)
SF District 10: Southeast (Outer Mission, Mission Terr, Excelsior, Portola, Bayview, Silver Terr, Hunters Pt, Candlestick Pt, Bayview Hts, Little Hollywood, Visitation Vly, Crocker Amazon)
1 SF District 1 42 28 -33.3% 23 20 -13.0% $1,280,888 $1,372,500 +7.2% 45 33 -27.3% 2.3 1.5 -33.9%
Key metrics by report month for the districts of San Fransisco.
Active Listings Sold Listings Median Sales Price Days on Market Months Supply
2 SF District 2 58 54 -6.9% 45 48 +6.7% $806,500 $872,500 +8.2% 41 41 +1.5% 1.7 1.4 -18.4%
3 SF District 3 27 33 +22.2% 24 14 -41.7% $685,000 $702,000 +2.5% 39 47 +21.1% 1.6 2.3 +43.9%
4 SF District 4 50 43 -14.0% 49 31 -36.7% $950,000 $1,055,000 +11.1% 39 28 -27.6% 1.7 1.6 -5.2%
5 SF District 5 52 39 -25.0% 81 33 -59.3% $1,485,000 $1,550,000 +4.4% 38 37 -3.2% 1.6 1.2 -24.2%
6 SF District 6 11 11 0.0% 26 6 -76.9% $1,245,000 $2,177,500 +74.9% 35 14 -61.0% 2.6 3.0 +16.9%
7 SF District 7 33 20 -39.4% 48 10 -79.2% $2,981,250 $3,688,000 +23.7% 72 28 -61.8% 3.2 1.7 -47.2%
8 SF District 8 10 5 -50.0% 45 0 -100.0% $1,874,000 $0 -100.0% 43 0 -100.0% 3.7 2.5 -31.8%
9 SF District 9 44 22 -50.0% 115 25 -78.3% $790,500 $1,285,000 +62.6% 31 24 -21.2% 2.4 0.9 -61.1%
10 SF District 10 114 87 -23.7% 69 44 -36.2% $526,500 $607,650 +15.4% 44 34 -23.7% 2.1 1.9 -11.6%
Condo/TIC/Coop
1 SF District 1 29 28 -3.4% 17 15 -11.8% $825,000 $780,000 -5.5% 40 41 +1.2% 2.1 2.2 +5.3%
2 SF District 2 6 6 0.0% 5 7 +40.0% $725,000 $589,922 -18.6% 24 50 +103.2% 1.1 1.4 +26.9%
3 SF District 3 6 5 -16.7% 3 2 -33.3% $280,000 $495,000 +76.8% 68 17 -75.9% 1.7 1.8 +3.5%
4 SF District 4 14 5 -64.3% 3 8 +166.7% $487,000 $497,500 +2.2% 47 56 +19.4% 3.1 1.0 -68.4%
5 SF District 5 73 45 -38.4% 40 41 +2.5% $822,000 $975,000 +18.6% 43 37 -13.8% 2.0 1.0 -47.3%
6 SF District 6 55 57 +3.6% 24 25 +4.2% $725,500 $826,000 +13.9% 39 29 -25.1% 2.1 2.0 -5.3%
7 SF District 7 74 37 -50.0% 36 32 -11.1% $995,000 $1,200,000 +20.6% 70 46 -34.8% 2.7 1.1 -57.6%
8 SF District 8 113 100 -11.5% 43 37 -14.0% $745,000 $650,000 -12.8% 55 44 -19.8% 2.3 2.2 -4.9%
9 SF District 9 202 146 -27.7% 95 105 +10.5% $760,000 $830,000 +9.2% 52 41 -22.0% 2.4 1.5 -37.0%
10 SF District 10 30 16 -46.7% 4 4 0.0% $413,000 $314,701 -23.8% 50 68 +37.2% 4.3 2.4 -43.3%
Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 16Current as of December 11, 2013. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 16
