August 2014 Monthly Snapshot One-Year Change in One-Year Change in Median Sales Price Single Family Median Sales Price Condo/TIC/Coop 2 Monthly Indicators + 4.4% + 14.8% + 13.1% One-Year Change in Most local markets continue to recover from a soft patch earlier this year. The macro trend is still positive; the micro trend involves more moderate pinching up and down the month-to-month timeline. This is not uncommon in a balanced market, but it's been so long since we've seen one that we're watching it with perhaps too much trepidation. Metrics to watch include inventory and prices, but also days on market, months' supply and percent of list price received at sale. Declines in pending and closed sales activity may reflect strong decreases at lower price points and may not indicate softening demand. New Listings were down 28.3 percent for single family homes and 36.7 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties Pending Sales decreased 14 4 percent for Median Sales Price All Property Types Residential real estate activity in San Francisco County (Districts 1-10), comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures. Single Family Activity Overview 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Pending Sales decreased 14.4 percent for single family homes and 14.2 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. The Median Sales Price was up 4.4 percent to $975,000 for single family homes and 14.8 percent to $930,000 for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 19.0 percent for single family units and 27.3 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop units. Sustained job growth, lower mortgage rates and a slow rise in the number of homes for sale appear to have unleashed at least some pent-up demand. Since housing demand relies heavily on an economy churning out good jobs, it's encouraging to see second quarter GDP growth revised upwards to a 4.2 percent annualized rate and stronger-than-expected job growth in recent months. Further improvements are still needed by way of wage growth and consumer confidence but recovery continues. Single Family Activity Overview Months Supply of Inventory Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. Condo/TIC/Coop Activity Overview Inventory of Active Listings % of Properties Sold Over List Price % of List Price Received Housing Affordability Ratio All Properties Activity Overview New Listings Pending Sales Sold Listings Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Days on Market Until Sale Activity by District
Transcript
August 2014 Monthly Snapshot
One-Year Change in One-Year Change inMedian Sales Price
Single FamilyMedian Sales Price Condo/TIC/Coop
2
Monthly Indicators
+ 4.4% + 14.8% + 13.1%One-Year Change in
Most local markets continue to recover from a soft patch earlier this year. The macro trend is still positive; the micro trend involves more moderate pinching up and down the month-to-month timeline. This is not uncommon in a balanced market, but it's been so long since we've seen one that we're watching it with perhaps too much trepidation. Metrics to watch include inventory and prices, but also days on market, months' supply and percent of list price received at sale. Declines in pending and closed sales activity may reflect strong decreases at lower price points and may not indicate softening demand.
New Listings were down 28.3 percent for single family homes and 36.7 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties Pending Sales decreased 14 4 percent for
Median Sales Price All Property Types
Residential real estate activity in San Francisco County (Districts 1-10), comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Single Family Activity Overview 23456789
10111213141516
for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Pending Sales decreased 14.4 percent for single family homes and 14.2 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop properties.
The Median Sales Price was up 4.4 percent to $975,000 for single family homes and 14.8 percent to $930,000 for Condo/TIC/Coop properties. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 19.0 percent for single family units and 27.3 percent for Condo/TIC/Coop units.
Sustained job growth, lower mortgage rates and a slow rise in the number of homes for sale appear to have unleashed at least some pent-up demand. Since housing demand relies heavily on an economy churning out good jobs, it's encouraging to see second quarter GDP growth revised upwards to a 4.2 percent annualized rate and stronger-than-expected job growth in recent months. Further improvements are still needed by way of wage growth and consumer confidence but recovery continues.
Single Family Activity Overview
Months Supply of Inventory
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
Condo/TIC/Coop Activity Overview
Inventory of Active Listings% of Properties Sold Over List Price% of List Price ReceivedHousing Affordability Ratio
All Properties Activity Overview
New ListingsPending SalesSold ListingsMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PriceDays on Market Until Sale
Activity by District
Single Family Activity OverviewKey metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month* Median Sales Price for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Historical Average Sales Price by Month* Avg. Sales Price for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month* Days on Market for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
505
631
467
590
335
424
August
2012 2013 201428 1%6 5%28 3%7 5%
2012 2013 2014
34 2% 35 5%12 Month Avg 371 17.2% 518 15.4%
Historical Inventory of Active Listings by Month* Active Listings for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Historical % of Properties Sold Over List Price by Month* % of Properties Sold Over List Price for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
105.8%102.0%
110.1%105.5%
111.4%106.4%
August
103.6% 101.0%
110.2%105.4%
112.9%107.5%
Year to Date
2012 2013 2014
0 9%3 4%1 2%4 1%
2012 2013 2014
5 6% 3 8%2012 2013 2014
+ 2 0%4 4%2 5%6 4%
2012 2013 2014
3 8% 2 7%12 Month Avg 111.4% +2.5% 106.6% +2.0%
Historical % of List Price Received by Month* % of List Price Received for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
65
78
48
63
47
56
August
2012 2013 2014
11 1%19 2%2 1%26 2%
2012 2013 2014
1 5% 6 0%
67
82
50
63
43
56
Year to Date
2012 2013 2014
11 1%23 2%14 0%25 4%2012 2013 2014
1 5% 0 0%12 Month Avg 45 17.2% 57 21.2%
Historical Housing Affordability Ratio by Month* Affordability Ratio for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13
The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
2.42.6
2.1 2.2
1.7 1.6
August
2012 2013 201427 3%15 4%19 0%12 5%
2012 2013 2014
36 8% 43 5%12 Month Avg 1.7 16.1% 1.9 19.9%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month* Months Supply for all properties from September 2013 through August 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 14
Current as of September 11, 2014. All data from the San Francisco MLS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 15
Months Supply 2.1 1.6 - 23.8% -- -- --
Affordability Ratio 48 44 - 7.7%
% of List Price Received 107.5% 108.5% + 0.9% 107.6%
48
73.9% + 5.7%
+ 2.0%
42 - 10.7%
109.7%
% of Properties Sold Over List Price 70.1% 74.5% + 6.3% 69.9%
Active Listings 1,057 759 - 28.2% --
Days on Market 38 32 - 15.8% 39 34 - 12.8%
-- --
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2014
Activity by District
SF District 1: Northwest (Sea Cliff, Lake, Jordan Park / Laurel Heights, Outer Richmond, Central Richmond, Inner Richmond, Lone Mountain)
SF District 2: Central West (Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights)
SF District 3: Southwest (Pine Lake Park, Lake Shore, Merced Manor, Stonestown, Lakeside, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview)
SF District 4: Twin Peaks W (Forest Hill (& Ext), W Portal, St Francis Wd, Balboa Terr, Mt Dav Manor, Ingleside Terr, Monterey Hts, Wstwd Pk & H'lnds, Shrwd Fst, Miraloma Pk, Dmnd Hts, Mdtwn Terr)
SF District 5: Central (Haight Ashbury, Cole Vly / Prnssus Hts, Clarndn Hts, Corona Hts, Twin Pks, Glen Pk, Noe Vly, Eureka Vly / Dolores Hts, Mission Dolores, Duboce Trngl, Buena Vista / Ashbury Hts)
SF District 6: Central North (Lower Pacific Heights, Anza Vista, Western Addition, North Panhandle, Alamo Square, Hayes Valley)
SF District 7: North (Marina, Cow Hollow, Presidio Heights, Pacific Heights)
SF District 8: Northeast (North Waterfront, North Beach, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill, Nob Hill, Financial District / Barbary Coast, Downtown, Van Ness / Civic Center, Tenderloin)
SF District 9: Central East (Yerba Buena, South Beach, South of Market, Mission Bay, Inner Mission, Potrero Hill, Central Waterfront / Dogpatch, Bernal Heights)
SF District 10: Southeast (Outer Mission, Mission Terr, Excelsior, Portola, Bayview, Silver Terr, Hunters Pt, Candlestick Pt, Bayview Hts, Little Hollywood, Visitation Vly, Crocker Amazon)
