Sandpiper Road, Virginia BeachHurricane Isabel, 2003(AP Photo/Stephan

Savoia)

R. Michael Robinson, PhD

Existing Research and Research Gaps

Mitigation and Adaption Research in Virginia Workshop

AUG 2015

DHS Critical Infrastructures

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• Chemical

• Commercial Facilities

• Communications

• Critical Manufacturing

• Dams

• Defense/Industrial Base

• Emergency Services

• Energy

• Financial Services

• Food & Agriculture

• Government Facilities

• Healthcare & Public Health

• Information Technology

• Nuclear

• Transportation Systems

• Water & Wastewater

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What has been done? (1)Note: Work assessing the rate of sea level rise and extent of inundation is not included (key researchers are here)

Chemical• Very significant manufacturing in Mid-Atlantic• Some manufacturing in Virginia• CC/SLR related research in sector related to

how industry could contribute to solution• No research found on CC/SLR impact on sector

Commercial Facilities• Research related to CC/SLR cursory, related to

flooded facilities and reduced access

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What has been done? (2)Communications• CC/SLR could cause heat problems in

service centers, exchanges, etc. and reduce wireless signal strength and quality

• Primary concern is the potential impacts failures could have on other infrastructures

• Resiliency planning in progress, but none identified in Mid-Atlantic

Critical Manufacturing• Very significant manufacturing in Mid-

Atlantic• Some in Virginia• No CC/SLR related research in sector found

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What has been done? (3)

Dams• Approximately 50 hydroelectric plants in Mid-

Atlantic, including 6 in Virginia• Precipitation rate impacts• Depending on location, could see either

inadequate precipitation or excessive amounts• No CC/SLR related research in sector found

Defense Industrial Base• Huge presence in Virginia• Major impacts to local economies • Most work being led within DOD. Limited

published research.

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What has been done? (4)Emergency Services• Capabilities and effectiveness directly related

to transportation systems, communications, IT, etc.

• Increased demand resulting from higher temperatures, forecast storm frequency and intensity

• Alluded to in research of other areas, but little CC/SLR related research in sector found

Energy• Impacts due to rising temperatures, reduced

water availability, increased storm rates and strengths

• Research being done, but none identified specifically in the Mid-Atlantic

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What has been done? (5)Financial Services• No CC/SLR related research in sector found

Food & Agriculture• Little consensus on significance of CC/SLR on

changes to farm products, productivity• Concerns about spread of disease, fungi,

effectiveness of herbicides and insecticides at higher temperatures

Government Facilities• New construction design changes• Extensive changes required to existing

infrastructure

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What has been done? (6)Healthcare and Public Health• Emerging health threats as temperature

changes allow existing threats to spread• New demands on healthcare system

Information Technology• Potential major impacts due to heat in

equipment centers• Ubiquitous. Major concern is the potential

impacts failures could have on other infrastructures

Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste• Over a dozen plant sites in Mid-Atlantic• Two commercial sites in Virginia

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What has been done? (7)Transportation• Existing CC/SLR related research focuses on

flooding (reduced network capability) and environmental impacts on physical infrastructure

• Major impacts on other critical infrastructures

Water and Wastewater• Weather changes impact type, rate, and timing

of precipitation with significant “downstream” impacts

• Lack of “downhill” drainage • Flooding impacts pump station viability

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Sample Local City Considerations Hampton

Infrastructure resiliency Transportation network viability

Norfolk Residential area and business sector flooding Transportation network viability Port impacts

Portsmouth Vulnerabilities Study Flood prone road network around military installations

Virginia Beach Evacuation & SEPG considerations Beach resilience, tourism

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Transportation Sector Example:Degradation & Strategic Investment Statewide spending has been

unable to keep up with maintenance and improvements.

Virginia roads rank 10th lowest in the nation for ride-

ability 32nd nationally for the percent of

bridges that are functionally obsolete or structurally deficient.

SLR compounds this by Flooding evacuation routes Increasing hydraulic pressure on

tunnels Altering drainage capacity Accelerating coastal erosion and

damaging nearby roads

Funding Needs

Maintenance

Improvements

SLR Recovery

SLR Resilience

Government

Private

Infrastructure Revenue

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Interdependent Infrastructures

Chemical

Commun-ications

Critical Manufactu

ring

Dams

Defense Industrial

Base

Emergency Services

Energy

Financial Services

Food & Agricultur

e

Government

Facilities

Information

Technology

Nuclear

Commercial Facilities

Healthcare & Public Health

Transportation Systems

Water & Wastewater

Tax Revenue

Accessibility

Sanitation

Healthy Workforce

Healthy Workforce

Healthy Workforce

Tax Revenue

Sanitation & Logistics

Operational Support Accessibilit

y

Operatio

na

l Support

Logistics

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Interdependent Infrastructures –Follow the Money!

Causal Loop Diagram of interdependent population, commercial sector, &investment funding

Sample References (1)

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Abler, David G. and James S. Shortle. Climate change and agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 185-194, 2000. (Considers how climate change might affect future Mid-Atlantic agriculture. Assessment suggests that Mid-Atlantic crop and livestock production will probably not change significantly though there maybe changes in the environmental impacts. Given that agriculture currently has significant negative impacts on water quality in many areas, including the Chesapeake Bay, this should be a high priority for research.)

Assessing Vulnerability and Risk of Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure: Hampton Roads Virginia Pilot. (VDOT, UVA Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems and Center for Transportation Studies, VCTIR, HRPDC, HRTPO). 2012. At: http://www.virginia.edu/crmes/fhwa_climate/files/finalReport.pdf

Benson, Keith, Patricia Kocagil and James Shortle. Climate change and health in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 235–244, 2000. (Assesses potential health impacts from climate change. Morbidity and mortality from extreme events may increase somewhat. Although more speculative, climate change could increase the region’s risk from water-borne and vector-borne diseases. The elderly and those with limited access to health care could be disproportionately affected.)

Fisher, Ann and Ron Smart (ed.). Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region – A Workshop Report. Sponsored by The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Global Change Research Program (Cooperative Agreement No. CR 826554-01) and Office of Policy (Cooperative Agreement No. CR 824369-01) and The Pennsylvania State University, 1997. At: http://www.epa.gov/eims/global/ccimar.pdf.

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Ezell, Barry C., R. Michael Robinson, Peter Foytik, and David Flanagan. Cyber risk to transportation, industrial control systems and traffic signal controllers, Environment Systems and Decisions, November 2013, pp. 508-516. (A cyber risk study focusing on bridge/tunnel ICS and a cyber event that tampered with traffic signal operation.)

Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization. Hampton Roads Military Transportation Needs Study: Roadways Serving the Military and Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge. July 2013. At: http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/Roadways%20Serving%20the%20Military%20&%20Sea%20Level%20Rise-Storm%20Surge%20Report.pdf

Kleinosky, Lisa R., Brent Yarnal, and Ann Fisher. Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to Storm-Surge Flooding and Sea-Level Rise. Natural Hazards, Volume 40, pp. 43-70, 2007.

Neff, Rob, Heejun Chang, C. Gregory Knight, Raymond G. Najjar, Brent Yarnal, and Henry A. Walker. Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources. Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 207-218, 2000. (Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projections of future streamflow, groundwater, and water quality are made using models determined from these associations and are applied to 2 transient general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. Projections demonstrate that future hydrology and water resources will be influenced by climate change, but that uncertainty in accurately projecting that influence will continue until model scenarios improve.)

Sample References (2)

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Nichols, Keith M., HAMPTON ROADS CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROCESS: THE STATE OF TRANSPORTATION IN HAMPTON ROADS 2014, June 2014. At: http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/State%20of%20Transportation%202014%20Final%20Report.pdf

Rogers, Catriona E. and John P. McCarty. Climate change and ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 245–253, 2000.( Discusses status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential management strategies, and crucial research gaps in 2000.)

Robinson, R. Michael, Barry Ezell, Peter Foytik, Craig Jordan, and Joseph Weiss. Cyber Risk to Transportation Industrial Control Systems. Journal of Cyber Security and Information Systems, Volume 1 Issue 4, October 2013, pp. 2-8. (Discusses and provides simulation case study results of consequences of cyber attack on transportation ICS, including estimates of commercial impact due to lost time in transit.)

Stiles, William A. A “Toolkit” for Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Virginia. At: http://www.wetlandswatch.org/Portals/3/WW%20documents/sea-level-rise/ASCE%20Meeting%20Paper.pdf

Tompkins, Forbes and Christina Deconcini. Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Virginia. World Resources Institute Fact Sheet. At: http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/wri_factsheet_virginia_final.pdf

Sample References (3)

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Tran, Paul, Leonard Weireter, Whitney Sokolowski, Kaleen Lawsure, and John Sokolowski. HAZUS Modeling for Hurricane Effect on a Healthcare Campus: Implications for Health Care Planning. The American Surgeon, Volume 75, Number 11, November 2009, pp. 1059-1064(6). (Project modeled the damage sustained by the healthcare campus, in the aftermath of a hurricane, as a tool to facilitate pre- and post-storm planning for provision of healthcare services or campus evacuation. HAZUS was used to estimate disaster associated losses, storm surge, residual flooding, and wind damage. The ability of the healthcare campus to deliver services was assessed as a function of the residual functional infrastructure. )

Sample References (4)

Mike Robinsonrmrobins@odu.edu

(757) 638-7010

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Sandpiper Road, Virginia BeachHurricane Isabel, 2003(AP Photo/Stephan

Savoia)

Discussion

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