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C en te r fo r Dem o c r a c y, Deve lo p m en t a n d Ru le o f L aw H o n o r s P ro g r a m

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S t a n fo r d Un i ve r s i t y

M ay 2 010

DEVELOPING OUT OF

DISPLACEMENT

Exploring Variation in Economic Recovery of Northern

Uganda and Other Countries Following Displacement-

Inducing Conflict

©2008 guardian.co.uk | Acholi IDP camp in Unyama

“We used to have community structures…but all that has died

down. Dif ferent cultures..when people came together in a

camp, mixed up. No one is interested bringing back old strong

community structures, and we’re stuck in subsistence farming …

Government says the GDP has grown, GNP is doing well , the GTP is

doing well . In the commands of some few. The rural people are sti l l

in sh--… People have returned, f ine…but they’ve just taken their

corpses for burial. Most people have lost hope, they cannot l ive a

productive l ife…that is the big sh-- we’re in [af ter coming back from

the camps].”

- Interview, UNICEF -Lira employee, July 2008

IS RECOVERY POSSIBLE?

Despite overall losses, displacement throws up ―winners‖ and

―losers‖ in terms of growth recovery…

RESEARCH QUESTION

What causes variation in the rate of

growth recovery after displacement-

inducing conflict?

Part 1: Defining variables

Displacement-inducing conflict ● conflict vs. post-conflict ● refugee ●

IDP ● durable solutions ● growth recovery

Part 2: Identifying and analyzing variation

Methodology

Strong growth recovery vs. weak growth recovery: Sierra Leone (SGR)

and Burundi (WGR)

Land tenure and growth

Part 3: Developing out of displacement in northern Uganda

Part 4: Market development after displacement -inducing

conflict

To redistribute or not redistribute: Can you address inequality and

poverty reduction while promoting economic growth after conflict?

Land tenure and market development—in the short run and long run

DEVELOPING OUT OF DISPLACEMENT

Forced

migrat ion

Conf l ict and

―post -confl ict‖

scenar ios

Durable

so lut ions

Growth

recover y

PART ONE:

DEFINING

VARIABLES

©2010 UNHCR in Sudan

http://eos.io

1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be

complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-

inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt

describe how things are; affects how organizations determine solutions , and indicate

for success.

Displacement-inducing agents: conflict (political violence),

development projects, disasters, environmental*

Causes of displacement-inducing conflict:

Breaches in local, personal security: government terror, dissident

violence, civil wars, and international wars on a territory (Moore and

Shellman 2004)

Voluntary and involuntary migrants: who’s forced?

UNHCR, national governments and international community

determine and define their constituency, despite problematic

nature of distinction

History of the refugee (1945-); IDPs (2000-)

Durable solutions to displacement: return, resettlement, and

reintegration (refugee flows and IDPs)

Definitions and identities

CONFLICT, DISPLACEMENT, AND

DURABLE SOLUTIONS

From conflict to ―post -conflict‖: developing a typology for

indicating transition to ―post -conflict‖ scenario

UNDP 2008 Report on Post-Conflict Growth Recovery

Criteria:

Post-war annual GDP per capita growth averages of 2% or higher

Higher average post-conflict growth rate than pre-conflict growth rate

Strong growth recovery (SGR) countries:

Weak growth recovery (WGR) countries:

Micro-foundations of human migration and

conflict, complemented with macro -level analysis

DEFINING GROWTH RECOVERY

Methodology

St rong growth

recover y vs .

weak growth

recover y

Sier ra Leone

Burundi

Land tenure

and growth

PART TWO:

IDENTIFYING

AND

ANALYZING

VARIATION

©2010 Farmer overlooks the farm land

outside Kigali, Rwanda | Foreign Policy

2. After crises such as displacement-inducing conflict, effective recovery policy

matters.

3. Postwar grievances matter.

Economic and historical analysis of a SGR and WGR country

during and after conflict

Michael Cernea’s Implementation Risks and Reconstruction

(IRR) Model – understanding the effects of displacement

Qualitative analysis

Variation of rate of growth recovery in country case studies

Variation in growth recovery across post -camp northern

Uganda

Independent variables:

METHODOLOGY

Information from Doyle and Sambanis (2000) dataset on civi l wars; UNDP 2008 Report – SGR and WGR; World Bank DDP Query; IMF DataMapper®; UNHCR Statistical Yearbooks 1994 -2007

Dataset

Country cases entering into post-conflict ―transition‖ after 1990

Average GDP per capita annual percent growth rate

Stock number of UNHCR-assisted displaced persons (refugees and IDPs) from 1990-2008 (per thousand population)

CASE SELECTION

Growth Recovery

Country Year start Years in conflict

Year end Years post-conflict (until 2008)

Average GDP per capita annual percent growth rate

Average number displaced during conflict

SGR Angola 1975 27 2002 6 11.8 7.0002SGR Liberia 1989 14 2003 5 2.8 133.71SGR Sierra Leone 1991 10 2001 7 8.0 77.568WGR Burundi 1991 14 2005 3 0.4 41.849WGR Guatemala 1965 30 1995 13 0.6 0.7699WGR Papua New

Guinea1988 10 1998 10 -1.2 1.4381

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

E-14E-13E-12E-11E-10 E-9 E-8 E-7 E-6 E-5 E-4 E-3 E-2 E-1 EC E+1 E+2 E+3

GDP Based on PPP Per Capita Relative to End of Conflict (1991-2012), Magnitude of Displaced Persons Per 1,000

Burundi, refugees (1994-2007)

Sierra Leone, refugees (1994-2007)

Burundi (1991-2005)

Sierra Leone (1991-2001)

2 per. Mov. Avg. (Burundi, refugees (1994-2007))

2 per. Mov. Avg. (Sierra Leone, refugees (1994-2007))

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Agricultural land (% of land area) - Burundi and Sierra Leone

Agricultural land (% of land area) - Burundi

Agricultural land (% of land area) - Sierra

Leone

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - Burundi and Sierra Leone

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) -

Burundi

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - Sierra

Leone

History – Economic

Conflict History

Disp. History

IRR Analysis

BURUNDI

History – Economic

Conflict History

Disp. History

IRR Analysis

SIERRA LEONE

Camp Displacement and Demographic Composition of

Resettled Communities – Ex-combatants and DDR

Natural, physical, human, and social capital recovery — land

tenure systems

VARIATION IN GROWTH RECOVERY

Histor y, d isp lacement

, and growth

Land tenure re form?

Recommendat ions

for Ugandan

government and

NGOs

PART THREE:

DEVELOPING

OUT OF

DISPLACEMENT

IN NORTHERN

UGANDA

Lira, Uganda, outside of Sankofa Cafe

December 2010

1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be

complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-

inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt

describe how things are; affects how

History

Conflict Patterns 1

Conflict Patterns 2

Conflict Patterns 3

Displacement

PATTERNS OF CONFLICT AND

DISPLACEMENT

Camp closure and phaseout

Economic profile of Lira, northern Uganda in general

Land tenure reform?

Addressing inequality and growth

HEADING TOWARD SGR OR WGR?

To redist r ibute or not redis t r ibute?

Growth recover y and market deve lopment —toward ―peace economies‖

Frameworks for market deve lopment

Land tenure and market deve lopment

Summar y

Future Research

PART FOUR:

MARKET

DEVELOPMENT

AFTER

DISPLACEMENT

-INDUCING

CONFLICT

Kampala, Uganda, outside of IOM’s head

office | December 2010

Basic macroeconomics: developing countries must focus on

growth first, and then mechanisms for redistribution

Increasing the pie increase individual slices

Commitment issues

Effects of displacement and conflict: loss of

assets, skills, and productivity; damage of infrastructure and

former market networks

Is it possible to address inequality while promoting economic

growth?

Northern Uganda and Southern Uganda

ADDRESSING INEQUALITY AND GROWTH

Growth important in order to have any peace:

Market development to promote peace—towards ―peace economies‖

Peacebuilding and economic recovery

Framework for developing market development programmes

that do not aggravate causes of conflict:

1. Value Chain Framework: Understanding national supply and demand

between suppliers and buyers and determining governance structures

2. Making Markets Work for the Poor (M4P): Increasing incomes and enabling

scale, sustainability and systemic market change

3. Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP): Developing scalable products and services

that work for the poor

4. Social Enterprise: Inserting social enterprises into critical gaps in the

market

GROWTH RECOVERY AND MARKET

DEVELOPMENT

Land tenure reform functions in Value Chain Framework

Short-term effects in Sierra Leone, possible solutions to landlessness

in northern Uganda and variation in growth recovery

Tailoring market development strategies to peacebuilding

initiatives

Political economy of each conflict, identities of actors involved, and

pre- and post-conflict market analyses matter

Ultimately, increased growth will only occur with changes in

incentives (Easterly)

LAND TENURE REFORM AND MARKET

DEVELOPMENT: PANACEA?

“…People have returned, f ine…but they’ve jus t taken the ir corpses for bur ia l . Most

people have los t hope, they cannot l i ve a product ive l i fe…that is the b ig sh - - we’re in

[a f ter coming back f rom the camps] .”

- In ter v iew, UNICEF -L ira employee, Ju ly 2008

WHAT CAUSES VARIATION IN THE

RATE OF GROWTH RECOVERY

AFTER DISPLACEMENT-INDUCING CONFLICT?

• Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.

• The impact of displacement is significant.

• Addressing postwar grievances matters.

• Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.

• Market development of ―peace economies‖ is crucial.

“…People have returned, f ine…but they’ve jus t taken the ir corpses for bur ia l . Most

people have los t hope, they cannot l i ve a product ive l i fe…that is the b ig sh - - we’re in

[a f ter coming back f rom the camps] .”

- In ter v iew, UNICEF -L ira employee, Ju ly 2008

WHAT CAUSES VARIATION IN THE

RATE OF GROWTH RECOVERY

AFTER DISPLACEMENT-INDUCING CONFLICT?

• Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.

• The impact of displacement is significant.

• Addressing postwar grievances matters.

• Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.

• Market development of ―peace economies‖ is crucial.

Greater number of postwar market analyses and surveys

Determining efficacy of market development strategies in

specific typologies of conflict and post -conflict scenarios, as

well as the impact of implementing several strategies at once

Economic recovery in conjunction with rule of law

reform, transitional justice

Inequality and conflict

FUTURE RESEARCH

Professor David Abernethy and Jeremy Weinstein

Professor Stephen Stedman (International Policy

Studies/CISAC), Gili Drori (Sociology), Jennifer Wolf (Human

Biology), Eric Morris (International Policy Studies), Ian

Robertson (Archaeology)

Professor Larry Diamond and Kathryn Stoner -Weiss (CDDRL

Honors Program)

Refugee Law Project (Moses Okello)

Samaritan’s Purse Uganda

Nic Cheeseman (Oxford Center on African Studies)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Organizations: Yumiko Takashima/UNHCR, UNICEF, UN -

OHCHR, IOM, Save the Children Uganda, UNDP, UN

OCHA, World Food Programme, WHO, UNDP, Uganda Bureau of

Statistics

Daniel Othieno, Office of the Prime Minister, Lira District

Funding: Chappell -Lougee, UAR Major Grant, Haas Center

Program on Philanthropy and Civil Society (PACS), CDDRL

Brian and Susan Davis, Chris and Jodi Blackham, Dale and

Marika Christy, Ben and Holly Porter

Michael Wilkerson, Jeff Love, Melina Platas

All of my friends (and Meyer Library) who helped me endure

until the end (CDDRL Honors Program, Bertram Ang, Jason

Brown, Sidney Le, Sabrina Pol, Adrian Bonifacio, etc.)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS