CLIMATE EMERGENCY!
Edward Mazria Architecture 2030
NewBuildings
ExistingBuildings
Materials,Construction
& Infrastructure
223 billion m2Today, global building floor area is about
Source: Global Status Report, GABC
230 billion m2By 2060, global building floor area will increase by
or double the current worldwide building stock.
Source: Global Status Report, GABC
About 40% of this construction is expected totake place over the next 15 years.
December 12, 2015
reach ZERO emissions by 2050
Peak CO2 emissions by 2020,reduce emissions about 50% by 2030, and
1950 0
1oC
2000 2200 2150 2100 2050
3oC
2oC
8oC
7oC
6oC
5oC
4oC
RCP2.6 (1.50C)0.53 trillion tons carbonzero CO2 emissions ~2050
Incr
ease
in A
vera
ge G
loba
l Tem
pera
ture
Global Temperature Projections for various RCP ScenariosSource: Architecture 2030; Adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), temperature projections for SRES scenarios and the RCPs.
RCP6.0emissions peak 20801.6 trillion tons carbon
RCP4.5emissions peak 2040-501.3 trillion tons carbon
RCP8.5 Business-as-usual2.2 trillion tons carbon
2018
2015 20
2020 2030 2025
30
60
50
40
GtC
O2e
Global GHG Emissions Under Different ScenariosSource: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2018
Current Commitments
To reach < 1.50C by 210024 GtCO2e(range 22 - 30)
201853.5 GtCO2e
~50%
Africa
18.0
57.2India
15.8Southeast Asia15.6
North America
38.1Western
Europe 29.8Eurasia
9.8
JapanKorea 9.8
AustraliaNew Zealand 2.1
Latin AmericaCaribbean
19.3
MiddleEast 8.0
Source: Architecture 2030 Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016
Existing Building Floor Area (2015, Billion m2)
China
BUILDING STOCK
Projected Building Floor Area Growth 2016 to 2030 (Billion m2)Source: Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016
Africa
12.4
China
22.1India16.3 Southeast
Asia8.2
North America
9.0Western
Europe 4.5
Eurasia3.3
JapanKorea 1.1
AustraliaNew Zealand 1.1
Latin AmericaCaribbean
9.8
MiddleEast 4.7
BUILDING GROWTH
Africa
25.6
China
5.3India
25.5 Southeast Asia8.4
North America
9.8Western
Europe 2.6
Eurasia1.8
JapanKorea 0.2
AustraliaNew Zealand 0.7
Latin AmericaCaribbean
14.0
MiddleEast 5.6
Projected Building Floor Area Growth 2030 to 2050 (Billion m2)Source: Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016
BUILDING GROWTH
Source: Architecture 2030, Adapted from IEA – Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017
Building Energy Codes
or codes
U.S. & International ZERO Code Standards
Global CO2 Emissions by Sector
(incl. building finishes, glass, equipment, and
plastics, rubber, paper, other)
Concrete, Steel& Aluminum
21.2%
Other6%
Industry21.8%
Transportation23%
Source: 2018 Global ABC Report; IEA
(incl. building structure, substructure,infrastructure, auto, other)
BuildingOperations
28%
China
United States
Japan
Top Five Countries (Industry energy consumption by sub-sector)
Russia
India
Iron & steelChemical &
petrochemicalNon-metallic minerals
(cement, glass, gypsum, etc.) Other
1,000 (Mtoe)800200 400 6000
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2018
CarbonPositive 19‘
CARBONPOSITIVE
‘ 19
•CONFERENCE& EXPOLos Angeles, CAMarch 2-4, 2020
SUMMIT Chicago, IL
September 27-28, 2019
LOS ANGELES, MARCH 2 - 4, 2020
The world will construct a staggering 230 billion square meters (2.5 trillion square feet) of buildings over the next four decades, an area equal to the current worldwide building stock or the equivalent of
adding an entire New York City to the planet every 34 days for the next 40 years.
The CarbonPositive’20 Conference and Expo examines the built environment through this new lens, accounting for the invisible aspects of:
The Conference will explore designing cities and buildings that use sustainable resources, generate a surplus of renewable energy, and convert atmospheric carbon into durable materials and products. By presenting leading-edge knowledge and breakthrough technologies, strategies, planning and design tools, and bringing together key policymakers, planners, architects, engineers, product manufacturers,
and innovators, we can make carbon positive built environments a reality. CarbonPositive’20 will put you directly in the driver’s seat to accelerate our transition to a carbon positive future.
Join leaders and innovators from around the world at this three-day conference and leave with the passion and capacity to shape the future!
CarbonPositive’20 International Conference and Expo presented by
Accelerating the transition to carbon positive cities, infrastructure, buildings, and materials.
SAVE THE DATE Registration will open soon and announced in an upcoming Architecture 2030 ENews Bulletin
• explosive urbanization• embodied and operational carbon
• infrastructure and construction • land use and deforestation
AIA LFRT
Bronx
Queens
Brooklyn
Staten Island
Manhattan
2.7% of NYC’s buildings (> 50k sf) produce 48% of building sector GHG emissions
New York City
Seattle, WA
2.8% of Seattle buildings are >20k sf, and they produce 45% of building sector GHG emissions
Less than 1% of Long Beach buildings (> 10k sf) produce 40% of building sector GHG emissionsLong Beach, CA
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles
Minneapolis, MN
Philadelphia, PA
PORTLAND, OR
0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k
ft2 200k+ ft2
185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282
PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock
Commercial
Multifamily
Building Types (Floor Area)
Building Type by Size and Floor Area
Mill
ion
ft2
COMMERCIAL272.6 Mft2
40%
SINGLE FAMILY276.4 Mft2
40%
MULTIFAMILY140.7 Mft2
20% Size
Commercial
Multifamily
0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k
ft2 200k+ ft2
185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282
PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock
Over 20k ft23,529 Buildings
1.9%Big Buildings
Under 20k ft2185,902 Buildings
98.1%Small Buildings
Buildings by Size(Number)
Commercial
Multifamily
SizeNumber
Building Type by Size, Floor Area and
Mill
ion
ft2
Number of Buildings
41%of the total building floor area.
1.9% (Big Buildings)of the total number of buildings in Portland, or 3,529 buildings, are greater than 20,000 ft2 and contain
PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock
0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k
ft2 200k+ ft2
185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282
PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock
Over 20k ft23,529 Buildings
1.9%Big Buildings
Under 20k ft2185,902 Buildings
98.1%Small Buildings
Buildings by Size(Number)
SizeNumber
Commercial
Multifamily
Building Type by Size / Number(Energy Consumption)
Trill
ion
Btu/
yr
0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k
ft2 200k+ ft2
185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282
PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock
Over 20k ft23,529 Buildings
1.9%Big Buildings
Under 20k ft2185,902 Buildings
98.1%Small Buildings
Buildings by Size(Number)
SizeNumber
Building Types by Size / Number(GHG Emissions)
Thou
sand
MT
CO
2e
1.9% (Big Buildings) of the total number of buildings in Portland are greater than 20,000 ft2and are responsible for
50.2%of total citywide building sector GHG emissions.
Big Buildings Policy Small Buildings Policy • Require energy upgrade by 2030
(efficiency, renewables, and/or electrification)
• Require zero emissions by 2050
Integrate an energy upgrade atbuilding intervention points: • seismic or flooding resilience upgrade• zoning or use change (within 2 years)• point-of-sale (within 2 years)• point-of-renovation
Provide incentives (zero emissions & early adopters) • fast track permitting• low interest loans• tax abatements, rebates
Policies for Existing Buildings
• Electric grid decarbonization coupled with building electrification
PROBLEM
Each team of 4 or 5 participants:• Identify a city and gather data about its building stock
(gather data on building type and size, energy consumption, fuel type, and emissions)
• Analyze data and groupings, and develop ZERO BY 2050 emissions policy strategies.
• Group data by building type, floor area, number of buildings, energy consumption, fuel type, and emissions.
(single family, multi-family, commercial, etc.)