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SaraSelect Invested with conviction in Swiss quality Conference call: update on developments Zug, 24 March 2020
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Page 1: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

SaraSelect

Invested with conviction in Swiss quality

Conference call: update on developments

Zug, 24 March 2020

Page 2: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Agenda

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG

Unique Approach

Investment Philosophy

Focus Small Caps

Investment Process

Our Value Added

Outlook / Conclusion

VV Vermögensverwaltung AG

223.03.2020

Page 3: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Unique ApproachSelection is the key to success

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 3

We invest with conviction in Swiss quality

▪ Invested in global market leaders, in high quality Swiss small and mid caps

▪ We favour entrepreneurial lead approaches to management lead ones

▪ Distinct stock picking – we have learned to say NO

▪ Preference for B2B against B2C

▪ Vast experience – fund exists since 1996

▪ Amongst the leaders in our industry – assets of CHF ~600 mn

23.03.2020

Introduction

Page 4: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Attractive PerformanceNet performance of about 9% p.a. since inception

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20.03.2020

Period 31.01.1996 – 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 423.03.2020

Introduction

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1'000

1'100

1'200

1'300

1'400

1'500

1'600

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

1110.7

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Attractive SegmentSwiss World Champions as global leaders in their niches

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 5

Sika: Building Envelope Solutions for all

type of Buildings140 million dollar deal

Tesla signs 3-year-contract with Bossard!fff

Nespresso renews contract with Dätwyler

Introduction

Belimo technology in the world’s

highest building

23.03.2020

Page 6: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Ideal formula…

This will automatically lead to better products, high market shares and pricing power

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 623.03.2020

Prerequisite for success

Introduction

Success = ƒ(entrepreneurs, passion, culture, focus, time, courage, innovation, responsible

anchor shareholder, not too many short-term oriented financial shareholders)

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Competitive forcesHigh market shares as a prerequisite for and result of success

The understanding of competitive forces within an industry allows better decisions

Source: VV AG, VAT, Michael Porter’s “five forces” / 03.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 7

High correlation of marketshare development and reported margins

23.03.2020

Introduction

Page 8: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

MegaTrends

Communication

Environ-ment &Energy

Aging & Lifestyle

Security &Regulation

Urbani-zation

Mobility

Tomorrow’s winners…

Speaking of mega trends there’s no way around involving Swiss companies

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 823.03.2020

Attractive Prospects

Introduction

Page 9: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Being invested over the cyclesSuccessful market timing is very difficult

Performance is done in very short periods, missing them leads to much lower results

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 30.06.2019

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 9

Investment Philosophy

23.03.2020

9.6%

5.2%

2.2%

-2.7%-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

average performance without best 30 days without best 59 days = 1% without best 117 days = 2%

Average yearly return SPISMC Indexfrom 31 January 1996 to 30 June 2019

Page 10: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Being invested over the cyclesVolatility as a sub-optimal risk measure

With 7 years investment horizon no loss is incurred

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 31.12.2019

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 10

Investment Philosophy

23.03.2020

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

SaraSelect rolling 7 year performance

SaraSelect yearly average performance 10.11%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

SaraSelect rolling 12 month performance

SaraSelect yearly average performance 10.11%

Page 11: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

We define quality as follows:

… invested in Quality IWe have high quality requirements

In many cases, small caps meet these requirements particularly well

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 11

Sound Management Trustworthy and entrepreneurial spirit

Attractive Business Model Leading products in several lucrative business markets

Free Cash Flows High level of internal financing

Strong Balance SheetHigh equity ratio, moderate debt level, assets of good

quality

Investment Philosophy

23.03.2020

Page 12: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

We try to avoid the following sectors:

In our search of quality we on purpose avoid certain areas

… invested in Quality II

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 12

BanksLack of visibility and predictability of income streams,

principle-agent problem, regulatory risks

Insurance CompaniesUnattractive business model, large and risky bond

portfolios especially in times of low interest rates

UtilitiesPolitical and regulatory risks, questionable expansion

abroad, high level of dependency on energy trading

Real EstateUsually represents a separate asset class, which we do

not duplicate

Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financingVenture

(Bio- & Hitech)

Investment Philosophy

23.03.2020

Page 13: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

… thanks to innovation leadershipGlobal Innovation Index: Once again, Switzerland is at the top

State-of-the-art infrastructure, outstanding education and an attractive business environment ensure a high level of competitiveness.

Source: VV AG, www.globalinnovationindex.org 2019

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 13

Reasons for Switzerland’s

high innovative capacity:

• Sizeable industrial sector

• Over 320’000 small and

medium enterprises

(>99% of all companies)

create innovation

pressure

• Innovation stimulated by

tax reliefs

• State-of-the-art

educational system

Investment Philosophy

23.03.2020

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Outperforming Segment in SwitzerlandBy far the best performance in the long run

In the long run, small caps outperform large caps by over 3% yearly and mid caps by over 1%.

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 29.02.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 14

Period 01.02.1996 – 29.02.2020

Focus Small Caps

23.03.2020

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

31.01.1996 29.01.1999 31.01.2002 31.01.2005 31.01.2008 31.01.2011 31.01.2014 31.01.2017 31.01.2020

Small Cap Index Mid Cap Index SMI Total Return

(Perf. 10.39% p.a.)

(Vol. 9.03% p.a.) (Vol. 12.03% p.a.)

(Perf. 9.05% p.a.) (Perf. 7.27% p.a.)

(Vol. 9.71% p.a.)

Page 15: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

PositionSmall -

Mid

SaraSelect

(Weighting)

Index

(Weighting)

Performance

YTD

ALSO Holding AG M 8.88% 0.34% -19.58%

Bachem Holding AG S 7.98% 0.30% 8.91%

Sika AG L 7.57% 0.00% -20.84%

Belimo Holding AG M 7.17% 1.16% -19.89%

LEM Holding SA M 6.19% 0.29% -31.18%

Daetwyler Holding AG M 5.24% 0.47% -13.82%

Bell Food Group AG S 4.97% 0.18% -13.17%

Logitech International SA M 4.95% 2.60% -6.59%

Interroll Holding AG M 4.44% 0.43% -30.48%

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spru M 4.13% 3.01% -3.53%

Bossard Holding AG M 3.94% 0.27% -42.90%

Bobst Group SA M 3.18% 0.13% -27.99%

CPH Chemie & Papier Holding AG S 3.16% 0.07% -24.24%

Gurit Holding AG S 3.07% 0.18% -31.46%

Huber + Suhner AG M 2.91% 0.39% -34.64%

Total Top 15 77.78% 9.84%

Stable Core PortfolioOur largest positions are all leaders in innovation

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20.03.2020

Small Caps are particularly innovative and are therefore prominent holdings in our portfolio

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 15

▪ The larger our positions,

the higher the degree of

our long-term conviction.

▪ We must not invest more

than 10% of our fund

assets in a single

company. Furthermore,

the fund is not allowed to

hold more than 10% of the

voting rights of a company.

23.03.2020

Focus Small Caps

Page 16: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Segment allocation

Distinct Portfolio Profile

Relative sector weights SaraSelect vs Benchmark

Focus on smaller companies and industrials

Rather small companies with a strong industrial footprint offer solutions for megatrendsleading to structural growth from which they benefit.

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 1623.03.2020

Our Value Added

33.9%

62.1%

30.3%

63.9%

89.1%

10.9%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SMIM Mid Caps Small Caps

SaraSelect P CHF SPI Small & Mid Cap Index

25.5%

8.8%

-1.7%

-5.1%

2.7%

-2.0%

-27.1%

-0.4%

-0.8%

-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%

Industrials

Technology

Consumer Goods

Health Care

Basic Materials

Consumer Services

Financials

Telecommunication

Utilities

Page 17: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

25.7

15.0

3.9 2.6

22.9

16.2

5.1

2.40

5

10

15

20

25

30

P/E 2020 EV/EBITDA2020

Price/Bookvalue

Dividend yield(%)

SaraSelect P CHF SPI Small & Mid Cap Index

Balance sheet quality

Robust and attractive valued Companies

Valuations

Well-equipped for challenging economic environment

35% discount for twice as solid balance sheets

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 1723.03.2020

Our Value Added

53%

25%

44%46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Equity in % of assets Intangible assets in % of equity

SaraSelect Small & Mid Cap Index

Page 18: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Attractive Business Model IIIInterroll: Impressive revenue development in constant currencies

The real value added is becoming visible in constant currencies, this explain nicely the actual valuation

and market perception.

Source: VV AG, Interroll 2019

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 1823.03.2020

Our Value Added

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1'600

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Revenues in mn CHF Revenues at constant FX Market cap in mn CHF (rhs)

10-year local FX sales CAGR 11%

Page 19: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Attractive Yield in the Long-termNet performance of almost 9% per annum since inception

Quelle: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 1923.03.2020

Our Value Added

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

SaraSelect P CHF SPI Small & Mid Cap Index

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1'600

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

SaraSelect P CHF (NAV Div.adj.)

YTD 1M 1 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr since inception

Fund -23.47% -14.81% -13.19% -2.56 % p.a. 7.84 % p.a. 8.3 % p.a. 8.8 % p.a.

Index -25.37% -18.62% -14.38% -1.41 % p.a. 3.71 % p.a. 6.75 % p.a. 8.35 % p.a.

Page 20: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Segment performanceSmall Caps short-term neglected

Smaller companies are more innovative, the RISK-OFF mode will fade away again

Quelle: VV AG, Bloomberg / 29 February 2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 2023.03.2020

Our Value Added

Page 21: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Some short-term exagerationsMid-term buying opportunities

Temporarily some hefty corrections

Source: Bloomberg / VV AG / 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 2123.03.2020

Our Value Added

Page 22: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Relative performance contributionsLEM, Bossard and Also as temporary disappointments

Short-term disappointments lead to profit taking – RISK-OFF

Quelle: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20 March 2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 2223.03.2020

Our Value Added

SaraSelect CHF: -6.03 (net return)

SPI Small & Mid Cap Index: -8.08%

TOP

Rel. Weight

SaraSelect vs. BM Abs. Performance Rel. Contribution FLOP

Rel. Weight

SaraSelect vs. BM Abs. Performance Rel. Contribution

JULIUS BAER GROUP LTD -3.62% -16.75% 0.61% ORELL FUESSLI HOLDING AG-REG 1.47% -12.28% -0.18%

ALSO HOLDING AG-REG 8.58% 5.46% 0.43% LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL-REG 1.36% -14.51% -0.20%

TEMENOS AG - REG -3.53% -11.96% 0.42% BOSSARD HOLDING AG-REG A 4.13% -6.07% -0.25%

SCHINDLER HOLDING-PART CERT -2.89% -13.99% 0.41% BOBST GROUP SA-REG 3.02% -9.35% -0.28%

BALOISE HOLDING AG - REG -2.78% -11.13% 0.31% HUBER + SUHNER AG-REG 2.89% -10.69% -0.31%

ADECCO GROUP AG-REG -3.17% -9.38% 0.30% BACHEM HOLDING AG-REG B 6.42% -4.63% -0.31%

KUEHNE + NAGEL INTL AG-REG -2.97% -9.90% 0.29% INTERROLL HOLDING AG-REG 4.01% -8.70% -0.34%

CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT-REG -3.33% -6.90% 0.23% BELIMO HOLDING AG-REG 5.55% -6.80% -0.38%

SONOVA HOLDING AG-REG -4.58% -4.96% 0.23% DAETWYLER HOLDING AG-BR 4.00% -11.61% -0.47%

SCHINDLER HOLDING AG-REG -1.53% -13.67% 0.21% LEM HOLDING SA-REG 6.55% -13.97% -0.95%

SaraSelect CHF: -23.24% (net return)

SPI Small & Mid Cap Index: -25.37%

TOP

Rel. Weight

SaraSelect vs. BM

Abs. Performance

YTD 2020

Rel. Contribution

YTD 2020 FLOP

Rel. Weight

SaraSelect vs. BM

Abs. Performance

YTD 2020

Rel. Contribution

YTD 2020

JULIUS BAER GROUP LTD -3.54% -43.44% +1.61% BOBST GROUP SA-REG +3.03% -27.99% -0.83%

STRAUMANN HOLDING AG-REG -3.70% -37.92% +1.49% PHOENIX MECANO AG-BR +2.83% -29.78% -0.87%

ADECCO GROUP AG-REG -3.15% -43.20% +1.44% HUBER + SUHNER AG-REG +2.88% -34.64% -1.03%

SONOVA HOLDING AG-REG -4.41% -27.99% +1.32% BELIMO HOLDING AG-REG +5.49% -19.89% -1.04%

TEMENOS AG - REG -3.43% -32.64% +1.14% GURIT HOLDING AG-BR +3.32% -31.46% -1.10%

BALOISE HOLDING AG - REG -2.74% -35.66% +1.01% INTERROLL HOLDING AG-REG +4.08% -30.48% -1.26%

HELVETIA HOLDING AG-REG -1.53% -47.08% +0.78% SIKA AG-REG +7.48% +0.00% -1.58%

DUFRY AG-REG -0.89% -71.90% +0.75% ALSO HOLDING AG-REG +8.57% -19.58% -1.73%

KUEHNE + NAGEL INTL AG-REG -3.07% -22.06% +0.65% BOSSARD HOLDING AG-REG A +4.25% -42.90% -2.03%

SWISS PRIME SITE-REG -3.16% -16.44% +0.58% LEM HOLDING SA-REG +6.64% -31.18% -2.15%

Period: February

YTD

Page 23: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Relative performanceCatching up again

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 2323.03.2020

Our Value Added

Quelle: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20 March 2020

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Jan Feb Mär Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

Relative ytd-Performance 2019

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

3.1.20 10.1.20 17.1.20 24.1.20 31.1.20 7.2.20 14.2.20 21.2.20 28.2.20 6.3.20 13.3.20 20.3.20

Relative ytd-Performance 2020

Page 24: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Feb 20 Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19

Global 47.1 52.7 52.0 51.6 51.0 51.4 51.7 52.5 51.9 51.6 52.7 53.7 53.3

Switzerland 51.9 57.3 51.3 52.6 54.5 55.8 54.9 48.9 53.7 56.1 61.8 54.4 55.7

Euro zone 52.6 52.5 52.8 51.9 52.2 51.6 53.5 53.2 53.6 52.9 52.8 53.3 52.8

Germany 52.5 54.2 52.9 51.7 51.6 51.4 54.8 54.5 55.8 55.4 55.7 55.4 55.3

France 52.5 51.0 52.4 52.2 52.9 51.1 53.4 52.6 52.9 51.5 50.5 49.1 50.2

Italy 52.1 51.4 51.1 50.4 52.2 51.4 50.6 51.7 50.5 50.0 50.4 53.1 50.4

UK 53.2 53.9 50.0 49.3 50.0 49.5 50.6 51.4 50.2 51.0 50.4 48.9 51.3

USA 49.4 53.4 52.8 51.6 50.6 50.9 50.7 53.0 51.5 50.9 53.0 55.3 56.0

Japan 46.8 51.0 49.4 50.3 49.7 52.8 53.3 51.8 51.9 51.7 51.8 52.0 52.3

China 26.5 51.8 52.5 53.5 51.1 51.3 52.1 51.6 52.0 52.7 54.5 54.4 51.1

Leading Indicator as a Compass in the DarkSome temporary disappointment from the servicing side ahead…see China

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 02.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 24

Global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI Manufacturing + Servicing)

23.03.2020

Outlook

Feb 20 Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Jun 19 May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19

Global 50.4 50.1 50.3 49.9 49.8 49.5 49.3 49.4 49.8 50.4 50.5 50.6 50.7

Switzerland 47.8 48.8 48.5 48.9 44.9 47.4 45.2 48.6 49.0 49.1 50.7 54.3 53.9

Euro zone 49.1 47.9 46.3 46.9 45.9 45.7 47.0 46.5 47.6 47.7 47.9 47.5 49.3

Germany 47.8 45.3 43.7 44.1 42.1 41.7 43.5 43.2 45.0 44.3 44.4 44.1 47.6

France 49.7 51.1 50.4 51.7 50.7 50.1 51.1 49.7 51.9 50.6 50.0 49.7 51.5

Italy 48.9 46.2 47.6 47.7 47.8 48.7 48.5 48.4 49.7 49.1 47.4 47.7 47.8

UK 51.9 50.0 47.5 48.9 49.6 48.3 47.4 48.0 48.0 49.4 53.1 55.1 52.1

USA 50.9 47.8 48.1 48.5 48.2 48.8 51.3 51.6 52.3 53.4 54.6 54.1 55.5

Japan 47.6 48.8 48.4 48.9 48.4 48.9 49.3 49.4 49.3 49.8 50.2 49.2 48.9

China 35.7 50.0 50.2 50.2 49.3 49.8 49.5 49.7 49.4 49.4 50.1 50.5 49.2

Page 25: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Equities have to rise furtherRenewed P/E expansion likely, risk reward still favorable

The earnings will have to be slightly adapted, depending on the final impact of corona

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 23.03.2020 25

Outlook

P/E SPI +/- P/E SPI +/- P/E SPI +/- P/E SPI +/- P/E SPI +/- P/E SPI +/-

13.00% 7.9 9'335 -8% 7.4 8'746 -14% 7.1 8'434 -17% 6.8 8'042 -21% 6.7 7'872 -23% 6.3 7'380 -27%

12.00% 8.6 10'136 0% 8.0 9'446 -7% 7.7 9'083 -11% 7.3 8'630 -15% 7.1 8'434 -17% 6.7 7'872 -23%

11.95% 8.6 10'180 0% 8.0 9'484 -7% 7.7 9'118 -10% 7.3 8'661 -15% 7.2 8'464 -17% 6.7 7'898 -22%

10.00% 10.4 12'237 20% 9.5 11'245 11% 9.1 10'734 6% 8.6 10'107 -1% 8.3 9'840 -3% 7.7 9'083 -11%

8.00% 13.1 15'437 52% 11.8 13'891 37% 11.1 13'119 29% 10.3 12'195 20% 10.0 11'807 16% 9.1 10'734 6%

6.00% 17.7 20'902 106% 15.4 18'165 79% 14.3 16'868 66% 13.0 15'370 51% 12.5 14'759 45% 11.1 13'119 29%

3.68% 30.0 35'458 249% 23.9 28'241 178% 21.4 25'224 148% 18.6 22'015 117% 17.6 20'784 104% 15.0 17'673 74%

3.00% 37.8 44'573 338% 28.6 33'736 232% 25.0 29'519 190% 21.4 25'217 148% 20.0 23'615 132% 16.7 19'679 94%

2.50% 46.5 54'944 440% 33.3 39'358 287% 28.6 33'736 232% 23.9 28'232 178% 22.2 26'239 158% 18.2 21'468 111%

2.00% 60.6 71'604 604% 40.0 47'230 365% 33.3 39'358 287% 27.2 32'065 215% 25.0 29'519 190% 20.0 23'615 132%

1.50% 87.0 102'763 911% 50.0 59'037 481% 40.0 47'230 365% 31.4 37'103 265% 28.6 33'736 232% 22.2 26'239 158%

0.75% 250.6 295'926 2811% 80.0 94'460 829% 57.1 67'471 564% 41.1 48'543 377% 36.4 42'936 322% 26.7 31'487 210%

0.25% -990.1 -1'169'056 -11599% 133.3 157'433 1449% 80.0 94'460 829% 51.8 61'104 501% 44.4 52'478 416% 30.8 36'331 257%

*Risk premium = equity yield (Reverse P/E ratio) ./. bond yield

10yr Swiss Government Bond

Ris

k p

rem

ium

3.00%

ltr averagetoday

-0.351% 0.50% 1.00% 1.68% 2.00%

Page 26: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Net interest spending rising to 6.3% of GDP

Interest rates can not move up

Budget deficit to rise to 8.7% of GDP

Crowding out as a future potential danger to the system

Interest rate have to stay low short-term and will eventually dramatically increase

Source: Congressional Budget Office: «The 2019 Long-term Budget Outlook» / VV AG

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 2623.03.2020

Outlook

Page 27: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Little euphoria in the marketsSentiment in the US crashing

No exuberance visible in the equity markets yet

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 29.02.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 23.03.2020 27

Outlook

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

State Street Institutional Confidence Index2005 - 2019

USA Europe

Euphoria

Page 28: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

No overvaluation visible yetIndicator still in neutral territory

Still a long way to go for the Swiss equity market

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 23.03.2020 28

Outlook

2'000

4'000

6'000

8'000

10'000

12'000

14'000

-4

-2

0

2

4

Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 Jan 2013 Jan 2015 Jan 2017 Jan 2019

SPI and 10y Swiss Government Yield(3 year, normalized standard deviation)

Norm. SD 10y Swiss Gov. SPI Index (rhs)

Equity

BU

Y s

ignal ->

Equity

<-

SE

LL

sig

nal

Page 29: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Attractive total return of 7.8% p.a.Investors fear drawdowns more than they enjoy performance

The average performance is at an attractive long-term 7.8% p.a. but negative years happen regularly

Source: Pictet / VV AG; log scale

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 2923.03.2020

100

1'000

10'000

100'000

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Swiss stocksYearly total returns (average 7.83 % p.a.)

-37.5%-46.5%

-41.3%

-42.3%

-34%

Outlook

Page 30: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Value generating sectors – business modelsBig differencies in the longer run

Sectors with low barriers to entry should be avoided systematically

Source: Bloomberg / VV AG / 20.03.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 3023.03.2020

Outlook

Page 31: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

High resilience during the financial crisis

Attractive Example

Long-term structural growth success story

Sika much less cyclical than usually perceived

Unlucky categorizations lead to misperceptions

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 22.01.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 3123.03.2020

Outlook

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

EBITDA (rhs) EBITDA margin (lhs)

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

30000.0

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

Sales (rhs) EBITDA margin (lhs)

Page 32: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Structural growth intact

German car industry production

Pent-up demand as in 2009 ?

Shrinking on yearly basis – but high pent-up demand for the years to come

5-6mn yearly produced cars, actual low levels seen in the past with corresponding rebounds

Source: VV AG, Bloomberg / 29.02.2020

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 3223.03.2020

Outlook

Page 33: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

▪ Global Covid-19 spread, impact and length will be decisive

▪ After China now Europe and the US affected as well – sentiment deteriorating

▪ Many roadshows, general assemblies, events canceled – alternative platforms

▪ Chinese factories are ramping up again, logistics still a big problem

▪ Central bank reactions show negative potential on the credit side (junk burst)

▪ Next weeks will be decisive, mid-term many structural trends intact

▪ “ThereIsNoAlternative” more stringent than before

Short-term outlookCovid-19 related uncertanties

Structural trends will reemerge, as soon as “dust settles”

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 3323.03.2020

Outlook

Page 34: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

▪ Swiss culture and mindset enable market leaders

▪ Alignment of interests with management is crucial

▪ Exclude dangerous business models – say NO

▪ High barriers to entry protect companies

▪ B2B is more stable than B2C

▪ Structural growth outweights cyclical growth

ConclusionInvested with conviction in Swiss quality

SaraSelect offers you immediate access to a portfolio of well-positioned market-leadersenabling structural growth and mega-trends

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 3423.03.2020

Conclusion

Page 35: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

Many thanks for your interest and your attention!

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG

VV Vermögensverwaltung AG

Lauriedstrasse 7 • Postfach 7837 • CH-6302 Zug

T + 41 41 720 47 90 • F +41 41 720 47 91

[email protected] • www.vv-ag.ch

23.03.2020 35

Page 36: SaraSelect - J. Safra Sarasin€¦ · Usually represents a separate asset class, which we do not duplicate Erratic business model, lack ability of internal financing. Venture (Bio-

While VV Vermögensverwaltung AG has made every effort to ensure that the information on this document iscorrect at the time of publication, VV Vermögensverwaltung AG can make no representation or warranty (includingliability to third parties) either expressly or by implication as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the saidinformation. If it’s not stated explicitly otherwise, all figures are unchecked.

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The performance shown does not take account of anycommissions and costs charged when subscribing and redeeming units. The performance figures include all costscharged to the fund (net performance). The performance calculation is based on net asset values (NAV) withdividends reinvested. Additional commissions, costs and taxes on the level of the investor affect the performancenegatively. The bank and/or the fund's broker may receive or pay a one-off and/or recurring commission inconnection with this product, the amount of which will be communicated to you upon request. Furthermore,investments in foreign currencies include a foreign exchange risk which may increase or decrease the return dueto currency fluctuations.

Persons domiciled in the USA or US nationals are not permitted to hold shares in SaraSelect, and units inSaraSelect may not be publicly sold, offered or issued to anyone residing in the USA or to US nationals. Thispublication is intended only for investors in Switzerland.

The prospectus including management regulations of the Fund, the simplified prospectuses as well as the annualand semi-annual reports are available free of charge from the custodian bank (Bank J. Safra Sarasin Ltd,Elisabethenstrasse 62, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland) or the fund manager (JSS Investmentfonds Ltd,Wallstrasse 9, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland).

DisclaimerImportant legal information

© VV Vermögensverwaltung AG 3623.03.2020


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