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SAUDI ARABIA 2019 OUTLOOKJanuary 2019

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SAUDI ARABIA 2019 OUTLOOK | January 2019 P a g e | 2

Table of Content

A. Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 3

B. Saudi Economic Outlook 2019 ....................................................................................................... 7

C. Equities outlook ............................................................................................................................... 13

D. Real Estate Sector Outlook ........................................................................................................... 20

E. Private Equity Outlook.................................................................................................................... 24

F. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 27

G. Annexure 1: Chart Pack ............................................................................................................... 28

I. Macroeconomic Indicators ....................................................................................................... 29

II. Oil Indicators ................................................................................................................................ 35

III. Stock Market Indicators ............................................................................................................ 36

IV. Corporate earnings .................................................................................................................. 37

V. Tadawul Sector Earnings Performance .................................................................................. 38

H. Annexure 2: Saudi Arabia Key Statistics ..................................................................................... 39

Executive Summary


A. Executive Summary Key factors Key positives Key Risks Outlook

Economic

Outlook

GDP Growth

Oil Prices

Oil Production

Fiscal policy

Credit growth

Monetary policy

Fiscal Deficit

Large government

spending

GDP growth on the rise

Fiscal deficit under control

Room to raise debt and

preserve forex reserves

Impact of expat exodus

may affect select

consumption segments

Production cut deal

collapse

Faster interest rate

increases

Ca

utio

usl

y P

osi

tive

Equities

Outlook

Earnings growth

MSCI /FTSE inclusion

Trading volumes

Dividend yield

Valuations

Construction related

sectors to benefit from

government spending

Attractive valuations

Privatization program may

lead to few initial offerings

Slower increase in foreign

investor interest

Subdued sentiment

towards emerging market

equity markets

Po

sitiv

e

Real Estate

Outlook

Demand Supply Balance

Occupancy levels

Rent growth

Economic Outlook

Government support

Government incentives for

affordable housing to

increase supply and

encourage demand

Rising rates

Rents stagnation

Lon

g t

erm

Po

sitiv

e

Private

Equity

Outlook

Number of funds

Sector diversification

Real Estate PE fund

subscription

Exit via NOMU

Demand for private

capital

Economic revival and

government’s privatization

program leading to

greater investor interest in

Private Equity funds

Increased interest in other

sector funds such as

Education and Healthcare

Fall in subscribers in real

estate funds

Markets still overcrowded

with several funds chasing

limited opportunities

Lon

g t

erm

po

sitiv

e

Executive Summary


Executive Summary

The year 2018 was a study in contrast for Saudi Arabia. On the domestic front, economic activity

improved led by government spending and credit growth from private sector. On the global front, fall

in oil prices during the final quarter of the year and sell-off in both developed and emerging equity

markets marked a return of volatility. Again, on the domestic front, Saudi Arabia’s reforms program

continued on track and received a boost from FTSE and MSCI inclusion, thereby setting up greater

foreign investor participation and further progress in terms of diversification of the economy. During the

year, the government accelerated the privatization program, with sectors like healthcare and

education to be among the key focus sectors. During the year, development projects announced

across the country would help to sustain economic growth. On the international front, Saudi Arabia led

the OPEC and allies in announcing production cuts in response to the sharp fall in oil prices. The strategy

has been successful in rebalancing the demand supply situation in the recent past, and the ‘OPEC +

allies’ group of oil producers are expected to be responsive to rein in oversupply again by either

deepening or extending the production cuts. Overall, 2019 is expected to be a year of continued

economic growth for Saudi Arabia and a year of consolidation for the markets.

Economic performance improves in 2018

The year 2018 witnessed a revival in economic

growth for Saudi Arabia. Several

macroeconomic indicators improved –

quarterly GDP growth moved up to 2.5% in Q3

2018 (Figure 1, Annexure 1), consumer inflation

revived to 2.8% by November (Figure 5,

Annexure 1), credit growth improved to 2.2%

(Figure 20, Annexure 1) after shifting to positive

growth during the year, Point of Sales (PoS)

transactions (Figure 38, Annexure 1) and ATM

withdrawals averaging a growth of 16.5% YoY

and 3.3% YoY respectively up to November

2018 and similar other macroeconomic

indicators. As we had expected in our 2018

Outlook report, increased government

spending has had a beneficial effect on the

Saudi economy. The surge in oil prices during

first nine months of 2018 also had a positive

effect on fiscal balances, with the government

lowering the target for 2018, and having room

to spend. However, oil markets fell sharply in the

last few months of 2018 over global growth

concerns, higher US shale output and surprise

exemption from Iran oil sanctions to eight

countries by US administration. The year 2019

has begun on a positive note, with oil prices

rallying from the bottom, signs of US China trade

war resolving through talks and the US Fed

signaling patience in further rate hikes. The

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has

indicated its estimate of GDP growth for Saudi

Arabia as 2.4% (Figure 2, Saudi Economic

Outlook 2018 section).

Equity markets attractive at current valuations

Equity market in Saudi Arabia witnessed a

volatile year in 2018. During the year, as

expected in our 2018 Outlook report, FTSE and

MSCI announced inclusion of Tadawul in their

respective equity indices, thereby paving the

way for higher foreign investor participation.

Further, as Saudi economic performance

improved and oil prices increased Saudi equity

markets followed the positive ques. However,

towards the end of the year, a globally

synchronized fall in equity markets, led by

concerns of slowing global economic growth,

slowing global trade, fall in oil prices and

concerns of emerging markets led to a sell-off in

Saudi equities. Specific sectors such as food

and retail were also affected by the exodus of

expats affecting consumption in specific

Executive Summary


segments, which was partly offset by the

continued support of Saudi government in

terms of special allowances, citizens account

program as well as policy changes in housing

sector. The plan for continued government

spending in 2019 (Figure 3, Saudi Economic

Outlook 2018 section) and rising oil prices in

early January, as well as more attractive

valuations have created an attractive

opportunity for Saudi Arabian equities. The

economy has had a whole year to acclimatize

to the Value Added Tax (VAT), fuel and

electricity price increases and expat fees,

which should help the consumption sector

(beneficiaries – retail, food and beverages).

Continued focus of the government in

infrastructure creation is expected to benefit

the construction sector and allied sectors such

as cement, as the project orders for large

projects such as NEOM start to roll out in latter

half of 2019.

Real Estate market to flourish in long term

Saudi real estate sector’s long term outlook

remains positive despite lower oil prices and

shortage of construction workers. Saudi Arabian

Monetary Authority (SAMA) increased the loan

to value ratio to 90% in January 2018 to bolster

the residential property market in the kingdom.

The government is promoting the private

sector’s participation in the country. A draft law

to regulate partnerships between the public

and private sectors was published in July 2018.

The emergence of social reforms including

opening of cinema market in the country could

revive shopping malls, which would drive

demand for retail real estate. Smart cities like

NEOM and King Abdullah Economic City would

drive the demand for commercial real estate.

The construction sector appears set for

expansion in 2019 as economic diversification

efforts gathers pace.

Private Equity market continues to diversify in

terms of sector focus

Saudi Private Equity space continues to gain

traction along with rest of economy, in sectors

other than real estate. Private equity investors

are increasing fund raising and seeking

investment deals in specific sectors - such as

healthcare, education predominantly – which

have long term demographic drivers and are

expected to benefit from government’s

privatization drive. Part of the privatization

program announced (to raise SAR 35 bn to 40

bn by 2020) will be through asset sales in sectors

such as education, water, telecommunications

and health care. While part of the sales will be

through initial offerings, some of them are

expected to be through private sales. In case

of infrastructure assets, the government aims to

follow the Public Private Partnerships (PPP) deal

route. Several multinational financial institutions,

such as Citi, have announced plans to acquire

a full banking license, which can lead to their

entry in the private equity space too. However,

in contrast to the overall development, funds

focused on real estate appear to be losing

investor interest, as is visible from fall in number

of subscribers to such funds, based on CMA

data.

Key risks to watch

Notwithstanding the positive developments and

prospects, the Saudi Arabian markets will also

face key risks. Actual government spending

during the year needs to match the

announced allocations. Consumers, at least the

Saudi citizens need to respond positively to

government’s special allowances and

incentives by spending, instead of higher

savings in the wake of increased fuel and

electricity prices. Reduction in expat population

post the introduction of expat fees also reduces

consumer base. The US Federal Reserve, in spite

of indicating patience in terms of rate hikes,

Executive Summary


may respond to faster wage growth by

increasing the number of rate hikes from two in

2019 and beyond, SAMA will follow suit to

maintain the peg, thereby raising domestic

rates. Global growth concerns, faster

production from US shale oil and demand

supply imbalance in oil markets affect the price

of oil and consequently sentiment about Saudi

Arabia markets.

Saudi Economic Outlook 2019


B. Saudi Economic Outlook

2019 Factors Negative Neutral Positive Outlook

GDP Growth C

au

tio

usl

y p

osi

tiv

e

Oil Prices

Oil Production

Fiscal policy

Credit growth

Monetary policy

Fiscal Deficit




Saudi Arabia’s Economy revives in 2018

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth was on a path of revival in 2018, after a contraction of 0.7% in 2017. By the

end of the first three quarters of 2018, the real GDP grew by 1.7% YoY, with the non-oil sector growing by

2.0% YoY and the oil sector by 1.4% YoY. Saudi Ministry of Finance expects the economy to deliver an

estimated GDP growth rate of 2.3% by the end of the year. The GDP growth estimate for 2018 was

revised up from 2.1% previously estimated in the pre-budget statement released in October 2018.

Figure 1: KSA Quarterly GDP Growth – Total and Non-oil (% YoY)

Source: General Authority of Statistics

Private consumption related indicators also showed an improved performance in 2018 compared to

the last year, with Point of Sales (PoS) transactions and ATM withdrawals averaging a growth of 16.5%

YoY and 3.3% YoY up to November 2018, as per the monthly data released by SAMA. Bank credit

growth has returned to positive territory since May 2018, after a period of contraction lasting more than

a year. Bank credit to the private sector achieved a growth of 2.3% YoY in November 2018, the highest

since the beginning of year, after showing consistent incremental improvement during the previous six

months. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) averaged 53.7 points in 2018 up to November, lower

than the average of 56 during the same period in 2017; mainly due to the negative impact of Value

Added Tax (VAT) and reforms in fuel and electricity prices implemented since the start of 2018.

However, the PMI improved during the latter part of 2018, averaging 54.6 for the last six months, and

reaching 11-month high of 55.2 in November 2018, reflecting improved sentiments in non-oil private

sector.

In 2018, inflation rose by an average of 2.5% YoY up to November 2018, compared to de-growth of

0.8% YoY during the same period last year. Inflation rates were largely affected by VAT and fuel price

reforms implemented at the start of the year. The Ministry of Finance expects inflation to grow at an

average of 2.6% YoY by the end of 2018, compared to de-growth of 0.8% in 2017.

The Saudi government expects KSA’s GDP growth to reach 2.6% in 2019, mainly driven by 20% YoY

increase in capital expenditure and private sector reforms. The IMF and the World Bank estimates for

KSA’s 2019 GDP growth are slightly lower, at 2.4% and 2.0% respectively. However, these estimates are a

significant improvement over those made at the start of the year. The government has announced that

(2) - 2 4 6 8

10 12 14

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4 2

014

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Total GDP % YoY Non-Oil GDP % YoY



it would introduce privatization programs and capital expenditure projects to boost the private sector,

in which the Public Investment Fund (PIF) would play a key role.

Figure 2: Saudi Arabia’s Annual GDP Growth (%)

Source: General Authority for Statistics, the World Bank, IMF

We expect the increased expenditure in 2019 to support the growth in non-oil sector. The extension of

cost of living allowances for one year would support consumer spending as well. The negative effect of

VAT and reforms in fuel and electricity prices on consumer spending and private sector growth would

be significantly reduced in 2019 as compared to 2018; taking into account the absence of low base

effect experienced in 2018, and also due to the fact that consumers and corporates would be more

acclimatized to these changes.

Increased government spending to boost economic growth further in 2019

The government is pursuing an expansionary spending policy in 2019, aimed at boosting non-oil

economic growth, speeding up the implementation of Vision 2030 initiatives and projects and

strengthening the efficiency of social benefits spending. The budget for 2019 was the largest-ever for

Saudi Arabia, with public expenditure rising 7.3% YoY to SAR 1,106 bn. The increased expenditure would

be mainly driven by 20% YoY increase in capital expenditure, reaching SAR 246 bn, which would be

directed towards infrastructure development and improvements in the quality of government services,

under the Vision 2030 program.

Figure 3: Estimated 2018 Expenditure vs. 2019 Expenditure (SAR bn)

Source: Ministry of Finance, E-Estimate

5.4

2.7

3.7 4.1

1.7

-0.7

Ministry of Finance,

2.6

5.4

2.7

3.7 4.1

1.7

-0.7

The World Bank, 2.0

5.4

2.7

3.7 4.1

2.3

-0.7

IMF, 2.4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

474.0 456.0

140.0 175.0 17.0 21.0

90.0 108.0 106.0

100.0

205.0 246.0

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2018 2019ECompensation of Employees Use of Goods and Services Financing Expenses

Social Benefits, Subsidies, Grants Other Expenses Non-Financial Assets (Capital)



Operational expenditure is expected to be SAR 860 bn (+4% YoY) or 77.8% of the total expenditure in

2019. Expenditure on goods and services is expected to grow by 25.5% YoY in 2019 to SAR 175 bn,

driven by spending on Vision Realization Programs, accounting for 20.4% of total operational

expenditure. Another important contributor to the operational expenses would be the royal decree

issued by King Salman to extend the monthly cost of living allowances to citizens under Citizens

Account Program (announced at the start of 2018) for one year. These allowances include: a monthly

cost of living allowance of SAR 1,000 for the government staff and military personnel; a monthly

allowance of SAR 500 for to pensioners and beneficiaries of social security system; and a 10% increase

in the stipend paid to students. Overall, social benefits’ spending is set to increase 20% YoY to SAR 108

bn. However, employee compensation, by far the largest component of the operational expenses

(53%), is set to decrease 3.8% YoY.

In terms of sectoral allocation of budget, military and security remain the sector with largest allocation

(27% of the total budget). However, the expenditure on the sector reduced 9% YoY. Spending on

education is also set to reduce, by 6% YoY. Spending on all the other sectors is set to increase, with

allocations for key sectors such as General Items, Infrastructure & Transportation and Economic

Resources increasing 57% YoY, 28% YoY and 24% YoY respectively.

Figure 4: Budget allocation (Segment wise)

Source: Ministry of Finance, E-Estimate

Total revenue is estimated to increase 9% YoY to SAR 975 bn in 2019, driven by 9% YoY rise each in oil

revenue (SAR 662 bn) and non-oil revenue (SAR 313 bn). The expat levy revenue is forecasted to

double to SAR 56.4 bn in 2019 from SAR 28 bn in 2018. Meanwhile, VAT revenue in 2019 is projected at

SAR 47 bn (2018: SAR 45.6 bn).

324

205 159

106

100

55

54 27 294

193

172

131

156

70

62 28

Military and Security Education Health and Social Development

Economic Resources General Items Infrastructure and Transport

Municipality Services Public Administration

2018

2019E



Figure 5: Revenue breakup (SAR bn)

Source: Ministry of Finance, E-Estimate, F-Forecast

The fiscal deficit for 2019 is aimed at SAR 131 bn or 4.2% of GDP, which is 3.7% lower than the expected

2018 deficit of SAR 136 bn (4.6% of GDP). The government would continue the policy of financing the

fiscal deficit through a combination of raising debt and using reserves. Total public debt is estimated to

reach SAR 678 bn by the end of 2019 (21.7% of GDP); while total government reserves are expected to

reach SAR 496 bn (15.9% of GDP).

Figure 6: Annual Fiscal Balance (SAR bn)

Source: Ministry of Finance, E-Estimate, F-Forecast

As per the monthly data released by SAMA, bank credit growth has returned to positive territory since

May 2018, after a period of contraction lasting more than a year. With the US Fed indicating that it

would slow the pace of monetary tightening for next year, this augurs well for the Saudi economy as

SAMA follows the Fed in monetary policy. We expect continued positive credit growth in 2019.

Volatility in oil prices a key concern for Saudi economy

Despite the projected growth in non-oil economy, and the government’s efforts to diversify its sources

of income, oil still remains the major component of the government revenue, with estimated oil

revenues making up 68% of the total revenues estimated for 2019. Therefore, fluctuations in global oil

prices have a significant impact on the fiscal performance and overall economy of Saudi Arabia.

1,145 1,035

913

446 329

440

608 662

103

121

131

169

199

256

287 313

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019FOil Revenue Non-oil revenue

-15

-5

5

15

25

-400

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0

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2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

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2014

2015

2016

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2018E

2019F

Fiscal Balance (SAR bn) - LHS Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) - RHS



Hence, we see lower than expected oil prices in 2019 as being the key risk to fiscal and economic

performance of the Kingdom.

Figure 7: Brent Crude Price (USD/barrel)

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were on an upward trajectory since the start of 2018, and rose particularly sharply since the

start of August 2018, when the US imposed a fresh round of sanctions against a major oil producing

nation, Iran. The Brent Crude price hit a 4-year high of USD 86/barrel in early October, before the

concerns regarding global growth and especially the slowdown in Chinese economy dragged the

prices down. The oil prices continued sharply on the downward slide when the US exempted eight

countries, namely China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey, from oil sanctions

on Iran in early November, fueling concerns on oversupply. Additionally, in 2019, supply of shale oil from

the US is expected to increase, owing to improved pipeline infrastructure. These factors make the

outlook of oil prices in 2019 somewhat uncertain.

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit for 2019 (4.2% of GDP) is based on 9% YoY growth in oil revenues, with the

underlying assumption of Brent Crude prices averaging USD 80/barrel in 2019 (as per media reports).

However, Brent Crude price has declined to USD 54/barrel (as of December 31, 2018) and according to

data compiled by Bloomberg, analysts forecast Brent Crude prices to average around USD 73/barrel in

2019. In a meeting of major oil producing countries held in early December 2018, the OPEC and the

allied countries have agreed to cut oil production by a total of 1.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) for

the first six months of 2019. It remains to be seen whether the announced production cuts would help

stabilize oil prices at higher levels in 2019. We believe that in case of oil revenue shortfall, the

government has to fund the targeted expenditure through borrowing, which remains a viable option

since the currently expected debt-to-GDP ratio (21.7%) in 2019 is well below the cap of 30% the

government has put according to fiscal rebalancing program.

31-Dec, 54.1

40

50

60

70

80

90

19-Dec 18-Jan 17-Feb 19-Mar 18-Apr 18-May 17-Jun 17-Jul 16-Aug 15-Sep 15-Oct 14-Nov 14-Dec

US imposes fresh

sanctions on Iran

US exempts 8

countries from

Iran sanctions

OPEC agrees production

cut of 1.2 mbpd



C. Equities outlook Factors Negative Neutral Positive Overall

Earnings growth trajectory

Po

sitiv

e Book Value

Trading volumes

Dividend yield

Valuations



Equities outlook

After ending 2018 in positive territory, Saudi equity markets are set to benefit from the expansionary

spending policy in Budget 2019, especially 20% YoY rise in capital expenditure (beneficiaries –

construction, cement, capital goods). Also, 20% YoY rise in social benefits’ spending and improving

indicators of private consumption spending augur well for consumption related sectors such as retail

and food and beverages. Uptick in credit growth cycle is positive for banks. Real estate sector,

however, has been enduring a prolonged slump for last few years and doesn’t show much signs of

recovering in 2019.

As per Bloomberg analysts’ consensus estimates, TASI is expected to record 26.5% YoY increase in

earnings per share (EPS) in 2019. The book value per share for TASI in 2018 is estimated to increase 7.9%

YoY, while dividends per share are expected to rise 14% YoY.

Performance in 2018

The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) ended 8.3% higher in 2018. After posting a decline in the first two

months of 2018, the index gained momentum and reached its multi-year high levels in mid-2018.

However, the index started declining during the second half of the year, but managed to end the year

in a positive territory.

Figure 8: TASI monthly movement (index points) Figure 9: TASI daily movement

Source: Tadawul Source: Tadawul

TASI’s total traded volume in 2018 (37.8 bn shares) was less than that in 2017 (43.3 bn shares) and lowest

since 2011. The PE ratio of the index hovered in the range of 15 to 19 during 2018, ending at 16.9x.

Figure 10: TASI daily traded volume (mn shares) Figure 11: TASI PE Ratio (TTM)

Source: Tadawul Source: Bloomberg

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2017

Jan

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2018

Rise in index Fall in index

31-Dec,

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Jan

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Feb

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Jan

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Feb

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As shown in Figure 12, majority of the sector indices (13 out of 20) posted a negative performance in

2018. However, positive performance of heavyweight sectors which are Materials, Banks and

Telecommunications contributed to the overall positive performance of the market. The best

performing sectors in 2018 on TASI were Media, Banks and Telecommunications, registering gains of

31.6%, 31.1% and 27.1% respectively. Media sector’s gain was driven by Saudi research & Market ing

Group (SRMG), the largest company in the sector accounting of 88% of its market capitalization, which

surged 40% in 2019 and was among the market-wide top 5 performers. Banking sector benefitted from

the high interest rate environment, helping the banks to expand their NIMs; as well as consistently

positive credit growth during the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, Real Estate and Utilities were the worst performers in 2018, falling by 31.3% and 26.1%,

respectively. The real estate sector suffered from the prolonged slowdown in the real estate market,

despite positive quarterly earnings growth recorded during the year. The value of real estate

transactions in Saudi Arabia declined 35% YoY up to October 2018, while the Real Estate Price index

declined 3% YoY by the end of Q3 2018. Utilities index suffered from the weak quarterly earnings

performances of its constituent stocks, namely Saudi Electric Co. and GASCO, which recorded fall of

54.9% YoY in the aggregate earnings during the first three quarters of 2018.

Figure 12: TASI Sector Indices’ performance 2018 (%)

Source: Tadawul

31.6

31.1

27.1

21.9

13.3

6.0

3.9

-1.7

-2.3

-10.1

-11.5

-11.6

-13.3

-13.7

-15.4

-20.0

-20.6

-21.8

-26.1

-31.3

Media

Banks

Telecommunication

Retailing

Energy Industry

Food Retail

Materials Industry

Commercial Services

Pharma & Biotech

Capital Goods

Consumer Durables

Insurance

Transportation

Diversified Financials

Health Care

Consumer Services

Food & Beverages

REITs

Utilities

Real Estate



Figure 13: TASI – Market wide Top 5 gainers and losers in 2018 (%)

Source: Tadawul

Performance vs rest of GCC and global peers

TASI’s performance during the year was better than most of the emerging market peers. Oil prices

played an important role in TASI’s performance during the first half of 2018. In GCC, the index

performed better than Kuwait, which gained 5.2% in 2018 and Dubai (down 24.9%). However, Qatar,

Oman and Abu Dhabi recorded better performance than TASI in 2018, rising 20.8%, 14.3% and 11.8%

respectively. In emerging markets, Indonesia was the strongest performer (up 20%) whereas China’s

Shanghai Composite performed the worst (down 24.6%).

Figure 14: TASI vs rest of GCC and global peers (2018 index performance - %)

Source: Bloomberg

Growth trend – TASI and sector wise earnings for 9M2018

Of the 19 sectors, 12 sectors recorded a negative growth in 9M2018 earnings. Capital Goods remained

the sole sector which posted an aggregate loss, of SAR 320 million in 9M2018, compared to a profit of

SAR 91 million in the corresponding period in 2017. Among the stocks of Capital Goods sector, the YoY

192.7

60.9

58.6

54.3

40.0

0 50 100 150 200

SIECO

United Electronics Co.

Riyad Bank

Nama Chemicals

SRMG

Top Gainers

-62.8

-45.2

-44.4

-41.8

-41.5

-80 -60 -40 -20 0

WAFA Insurance

Etihad Atheeb

Dallah Healthcare

Jabal Omar

Yamamah Steel

Top Losers

20.8

14.3 11.8 8.3

5.2 0.4 -24.9

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Qa

tar

Ind

on

esi

a

So

uth

Ko

rea

Bra

zil

Om

an

Jap

an

Ab

u D

ha

bi

Sa

ud

i Ara

bia

US (

S&

P5

00

)

Ku

wa

it

Ind

ia

Ru

ssia

Ba

hra

in

Au

stra

lia

Taiw

an

So

uth

Afr

ica

Fra

nc

e

UK

Ch

ina

(H

on

g K

on

g)

Me

xic

o

Ge

rma

ny

Ch

ina

(Sh

an

gh

ai)

Du

ba

i

GCC Countries



earnings of Middle East Specialized Cable Co. (MEPCO) declined the most (down 1,062%) whereas

Saudi Industrial Export Co. (up 149% YoY) recorded a highest rise in earnings. On the other hand, YoY

earnings growth of Real Estate sector (up 166% YoY) was the best among all sectors. Among the stocks

of Real Estate sector, Jabal Omar’s earnings increased 132% YoY. Moreover, aggregate earnings of the

two the largest sectors on Tadawul, namely Materials and Banks, increased 29% YoY and 10% YoY

respectively for 9M 2018.

Figure 15: TASI PAT and YoY growth (Quarterly)

Source: Reuters Eikon

IPO action subdued

The IPO activity in 2018 was subdued, except for the listing of 10 REITs on Tadawul. Apart from the REITs,

there were only two listings on Tadawul (Leejam Sports and National Company for Learning and

Education) and one on NOMU Parallel Market (National Building and Marketing Co). Going forward,

there are no new IPOs in pipeline so far.

Figure 16: Saudi Arabia Initial Public Offerings

Source: Tadawul

Q3 2018 PAT

SAR 32.8 bn

Q3 2018 PAT growth,

-0.17%

(150)

(100)

(50)

-

50

100

150

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Q1

20

08

Q2

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q2

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q4

20

09

Q1 2

010

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4 2

015

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Profit (SAR Bn) -LHS Profit (% yoy) - RHS

7 5 6

4 3

8

2

10

1

0

4

8

12

16

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

TASI REITs NOMU



SAUDI ARAMCO IPO did not materialize in 2018

Saudi Arabia called off the mega IPO of state-oil giant Saudi Aramco which was expected to occur in

the second half of 2018. Aramco reportedly delayed the IPO as it wanted to focus on buying a

strategic stake in local petrochemical group Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) for as much as

USD 70 bn, possibly taking the entire 70% stake owned by KSA’s Public Investment Fund (PIF).

However, the IPO of Aramco is still active and is expected to materialize at an appropriate time in

future. As of now, media reports indicate that the listing is expected to take place by 2021 and if

materialized, the IPO might be the largest in history. By 2030, the oil giant seeks to increase its refining

capacity to between 8–10 million barrels per day (bpd), from around 5 million bpd now, and double its

petrochemicals production by 2030.

REITs performance remains subdued during the year

Saudi Arabia recorded listing of 10 REIT fund in 2018, with total size of funds SAR 11.6 bn. As shown in

Table 1, all 10 REIT funds have given a negative performance since the inception, with Al AMshaar REIT

(down 26.6%) posted the highest negative return since inception. In addition, Wasatah Capital, which

was expected to list Wasatah REIT Fund in 2018, has cancelled the listing and initial public offering (IPO)

due to insufficient subscription.

Table 1: REITs listed in 2018 (in the order of 2018 decline %: highest to lowest)

REIT Listing date Fund Size (SAR mn) Returns since inception (%)

Al Masha’ar REIT Jan. 18, 2018 572.4 -26.6

Al Ahli REIT (1) Jan. 8, 2018 1375 -23.5

Al Rajhi REIT Mar. 19, 2018 1222 -15.9

SEDCO Capital REIT May 1, 2018 600 -11.8

MEFIC REIT Nov. 13, 2018 1230 -8.9

Bonyan REIT July 25, 2018 1629 -8.3

Derayah REIT Mar. 26, 2018 1075 -7.4

SWICORP WABEL REIT Aug. 06, 2018 1180 -6.0

Jadwa REIT Saudi Feb. 11, 2018 1580 -5.7

SWICORP WABEL REIT Aug. 06, 2018 1180 -6.0

Source: Tadawul

TASI’s inclusion in FTSE and MSCI benchmark indices materialized

On June 20 2018, MSCI Inc. announced the reclassification of MSCI Saudi Arabia Index from Standalone

Market to Emerging Markets (EM) status, recognizing the kingdom’s efforts to modernize its capital

market. Saudi Arabia became the third GCC market join MSCI Emerging Market Index after Qatar and

UAE. The inclusion would be implemented in two steps, the Semi Annual Index Review in May 2019 and

Quarterly Index Review in August 2019. The inclusion would result in Saudi Arabia commanding a

potential weight of approximately 2.4% in the MSCI EM Index, placing it among the top 12 countries in

the index. In the MSCI Emerging Markets EMEA Index, KSA could rank among the top three. The

upgrade into MSCI Index was broadly anticipated following a decision taken by FTSE Russell in March

2018 to upgrade Saudi Arabian stocks in its Emerging Markets index. According to analysts’ estimates,



KSA’s inclusion is expected to attract about USD 45 bn in additional foreign inflows. MSCI Saudi Arabia

Index would have 32 constituents under MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII)

ownership in Tadawul was on the rise in anticipation and in the aftermath of the MSCI decision,

reaching the high of 5.14% in September 2018, from 4.2% at the start of the year. As the global

emerging markets started retreating, the FII ownership in Tadawul also fell towards the end of the year.

However, this trend is expected to reverse in 2019 as FIIs are expected to increase their ownership in

Tadawul before the actual inclusion happens, in order to balance their portfolios accordingly.

In case of FTSE indices, the Saudi Arabian Stock Market would advance to the Secondary Emerging

market status within the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS), starting March 2019. These developments

are a major milestone for KSA as they are estimated to increase global investors’ interest and result in

substantial capital inflow.

Figure 17: FII Ownership % in Tadawul

Source: Tadawul

20-Dec, 4.65

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18



D. Real Estate Sector

Outlook Factors Negative Neutral Positive Overall

Demand Supply Balance Lo

ng

te

rm P

osi

tiv

e

Occupancy levels and Rents

Credit growth

Economic Outlook

Government support

Demographic demand drivers



Real Estate Sector Outlook

Saudi real estate sector’s long term outlook remains positive despite lower oil prices and shortage of

construction workers. In an attempt to boost the residential property market in the country, Saudi

Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) increased the loan to value ratio to 90% in January 2018. Saudi

government is encouraging the private sector’s participation in the country. A draft law to regulate

partnerships between the public and private sectors was put in place in July 2018. The emergence of

social reforms including opening of cinema market in the country could sustain shopping malls, which

would drive demand for retail real estate. The smart cities like NEOM and King Abdullah Economic City

would drive the demand for commercial real estate. The construction sector appears set for expansion

in 2019 as economic diversification efforts gathers pace. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is launching various

affordable housing programs, real estate public-private-partnerships, and mega projects to spur real

estate sector’s growth in the country.

Credit from banks to real estate supports GDP growth

Credit loan to the real estate sector grew 7.3% YoY to SAR228.6 bn in Q3 2018, with retail credit rising

12.7% YoY to SAR132.6 bn and corporate credit increasing marginally (up 0.6% YoY) to SAR96.0 bn. The

contribution of retail credit to total real estate loan declined to 58.0% in Q3 2018 from 61.1% in 2013,

while corporate loan accounted for 42.0% in Q3 2018, up 38.9% in 2013. Given the increase in real GDP

over the past seven years, the proportion of total real estate loan from banks rose to 8.7% in Q3 2018 of

overall total bank loans versus 4.9% in 2013.

Figure 18: Real estate loans by banks Figure 19: Rise in loan proportion with GDP

Source: SAMA Source: SAMA, IMF October 2018 report

Favorable demographic outlook to drive demand

Saudi Arabia’s working population increased at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2010 to 2017, faster than the

Kingdom’s total population (CAGR of 2.7%). Moreover, Saudi Arabia has a young population, with

around 70% of the population currently under the age of 40, signaling continued growth in the real

estate sector. The growing population, along with rising disposable income, urbanization, and

increasing nuclear families, is expected to spur demand for residential units in the country in the long

term.

The Saudi population is highly skewed toward Riyadh, Jeddah, and Makkah, with more than 50% of the

total population situated here. Riyadh and Jeddah have a large population mainly due to intense

business and political activity, while Makkah and Madinah are popular tourist destinations. The tourism

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M18

Retail Corporate

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M18

Real GDP (SAR bn) Loans/GDP



industry depends on Hajj and Umrah pilgrims. Saudi Arabia expects to nearly double its foreign Umrah

visitors to over 15 mn in 2020 from 8 mn in 2015 by boosting its capacity. These regions offer an

attractive opportunity for the real estate sector to grow further in the long term.

Figure 20: Saudi population by age group (mn)

Source: The World Bank

Saudi Arabia regulations and reforms support the demand

While there exists a secular demand for residential/housing units, the demand supply mismatch has

required Saudi Arabian government to intervene in the form of regulations to boost

demand/encourage supply. These measures vary from planned reforms to the country’s laws including

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to opening of cinema market.

Saudi PPP law to boost foreign investments in country

While Saudi Arabia has completed a number of infrastructure projects using the public-private

partnership (PPP) model, it still lacks specific regulations to govern the developments. A draft law to

regulate partnerships between the public and private sectors was published in July 2018. This would

attract investments for large infrastructure projects in the utilities, transport, and real estate sectors. The

proposed law would mainly bolster real estate investments in affordable housing, social infrastructure

(such as schools and hospitals), and public infrastructure (such as airports and railways). According to

the draft law published by Saudi Arabia's National Centre for Privatization & PPP (NCP), rules on foreign

real estate ownership may be relaxed. Consequently, foreign investors may own real estate in whole or

in part, except for properties located within the boundaries of the cities of Makkah and Medina. The

new draft law would allow bidders to request PPP contracts by the government within a 10-day period

through the government entity or the NCP’s website.

The law outlines exemptions for foreign investors in real estate ownership and labor laws in addition to

several regulations. The country expects to generate USD9.0–11.0 bn in revenue by 2020 through a

privatization program that would create around 12,000 jobs. Moreover, the government would target

14 PPP investments worth USD6.4–7.4 bn that will lead to the corporatization of ports, the production

portion of Saudi Saline Water Conversion Corporation, and the Ras Al Khair desalination and power

plant. This would improve transparency and ease financial pressure on the government, ultimately

boosting the Kingdom’s real estate sector.

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

0-14 15-59 60+



Opening of cinema market provides opportunity for real estate investors

As part of National Transformation Program 2020, Saudi Arabia focuses on the development of its

entertainment sector to reduce reliance on oil. The country has allowed licensing regulations for

cinemas, lifting a 35-year ban on the screening of movies. According to CBRE, many mall owners would

capitalize on these reforms by renovating or repositioning their centres to accommodate cinemas and

attract complimentary tenants. This could lead to solid growth in shopping malls, which would also drive

demand for retail real estate space. About 350 cinemas and 2,500 screens are estimated to open

across the country by 2030, generating approximately USD1.5 bn in revenue. The market is projected to

create around 3,000 jobs over the next five years. Furthermore, urban development initiatives, such as

infrastructure expansion and mixed-use community centers, would propel growth in the real estate

sector.

Saudi Arabia’s shift from villas to apartments spurs real estate demand

The decline in government revenue and a weakened purchasing power led Saudis to shift from buying

villas to affordable apartments, which is expected to drive demand for apartments. In 2018, the

average price per square meter for villas reduced 5% in Riyadh, 24% in Jeddah, and 28% in the Eastern

Province. However, apartment prices edged up 36% in Riyadh but declined 7% in the Eastern Province,

while it was flat in Jeddah.

Construction sector set for expansion

Despite recent challenges faced by the sector due to declining oil prices and lack of qualified workers,

construction sector growth clocked in at 4.1% in 2018. According to BNC Network’s report, over 5,200

projects are currently ongoing in the country valued at USD819 bn, accounting for around 35% of the

total value of active projects across the gulf region. The urban construction sector is the significant

contributor with 3,727 ongoing projects valued USD386.4 bn. The major urban construction projects in

Saudi Arabia include the King Abdullah Security Compounds (Phase 5), and the Grand Mosque, each

valued USD21.3 bn. In addition, Neom city (USD500 bn), the largest of a number of projects launched

over the past year will boost the sector’s activity going forward.

According to MUFG Bank’s report, the sector has a robust project pipeline of worth USD658.5 bn from

2019 onwards. The construction sector’s outlook in the short term seems appealing with the sector

expected to grow at CAGR of 6.1% from 2018 to 2022 as economic diversification gathers pace.

However, the government's Saudisation policy and lack of workers poses a downside risk to the outlook.



E. Private Equity Outlook Factors Negative Neutral Positive

Number of funds

Lon

g t

erm

po

sitiv

e Sector diversification

Real Estate PE fund subscription

Exit via NOMU

Demand for private capital



Private Equity Outlook

Saudi Private Equity space continues to gain traction along with rest of economy, in sectors other than

real estate. Private equity investors are increasing fund raising and seeking investment deals in specific

sectors - such as healthcare, education predominantly – which have long term demographic drivers

and are expected to benefit from government’s privatization drive. Part of the privatization program

announced (to raise SAR 35 bn to 40 bn by 2020) will be through asset sales in sectors such as

education, water, telecommunications and health care. While part of the sales will be through initial

offerings, some of them are expected to be through private sales. In case of infrastructure assets, the

government aims to follow the Public Private Partnerships (PPP) deal route. Several multinational

financial institutions, such as Citi, have announced plans to acquire a full banking license, which can

lead to their entry in the private equity space too. However, in contrast to the overall development,

funds focused on real estate appear to be losing investor interest, as is visible from fall in number of

subscribers to such funds, based on CMA data.

Private Equity Funds Assets under management

Private Equity investments in Saudi Arabia are predominantly focused on equity investments and real

estate. Out of total outstanding assets of SAR 165.6bn in private equity as of Q3 2018, 60% is invested in

equities, 35% in real estate, and rest in other assets such as debt, money market, commodities and

others (source: CMA Quarterly Statistical Bulletin, 17th issue).

Figure 21: PE Fund Assets (Equities) and No. of subscribers (SAR bn)

Source: CMA

Figure 22: PE Fund Assets (Real Estate) and No. of subscribers (SAR bn)

Source: CMA

25.8 26.2 27.4 62.3 62.2 77.1 75.9 75.9 81.7 87.2 99.7

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Asset Value (SAR bn) - LHS No. of subscribers - RHS

39.8 44.0 45.0 55.0 54.9 56.8 58.4 57.7 56.7 56.7 57.3

2000

2200

2400

2600

20

30

40

50

60

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Asset Value (SAR bn) - LHS No. of subscribers - RHS



During 9M2018, while equity focused funds increased both their asset size and number of subscribers, in

case of real estate focused funds, the number of subscribers witnessed a steady decline during the

year, in spite of investments remaining steady at around SAR 57 bn. Overall, the real estate sector in

Saudi Arabia continues to be under pressure (see the Real Estate Outlook section of this report), which

could be one of the reasons for decline in number of subscribers.

Figure 23: Breakup of sector focused funds, KSA

Source: CMA, based on 79 sample funds

Based on the sample of 79 currently active PE funds, just over half of them are sector focused, with the

predominant sector being Healthcare, followed by Education, Food & Beverages Industrials, and

others. There is a marked increase in number of funds in Healthcare and Education sector, indicating

investor interest and the long term potential held by these sectors. Average term of these funds is 8.4

years (7.8 years last year), while average term extension is 2.2 years (same as last year). 13 of the 79

funds are foreign-based, while the rest 63 are local.

Healthcare

21%

Education

13%

Food & Beverages

9% Industrials

5%

IT

4%

Energy

2%

Others

46%



F. Conclusion Overall, the year 2019 promises to be a continuation of turnaround for Saudi Arabian

economy, with continued government spending, support to consumers and reforms agenda.

The formal inclusion of Saudi stocks in FTSE and MSCI indices should lead to greater foreign

equity investors’ inflows. Oil prices are volatile at the movement but the planned production

cuts would help reduce the demand supply gap and provide greater stability to prices. The

key risks include sustenance of consumer demand, more than two rate hikes by US Fed, oil

price volatility due to rising US shale oil production, among others. We expect the Saudi

government to monitor these risks and respond accordingly, thereby helping the economy

remain on path for future growth.



G. Annexure 1: Chart Pack



Annexure 1: Chart Pack

I. Macroeconomic Indicators

Figure 1: GDP (Constant prices) growth (quarterly

-% YoY) Figure 2: GDP growth (annual - % YoY)

Source: General Authority of Statistics Source: General Authority of Statistics, MoF (2018E)

Figure 3: Non-oil GDP growth (quarterly - % YoY) Figure 4: Non-oil GDP growth (annual - % YoY)

Source: General Authority of Statistics Source: General Authority of Statistics

Figure 5: Inflation (% YoY) Figure 6: Food inflation (% YoY)

Source: Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority (SAMA) Source: SAMA

Figure 7: PMI index Figure 8: Cement Sales (Mn tons)

Source: Bloomberg Source: Yamama Cement

Q3 2018,

2.5%

(5)

-

5

10

15

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q1 2

013

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q3 2

017

Q1

20

18

Q3

20

18

2018E,

2.3%

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

Q3 2018,

2.1%

(5)

-

5

10

15

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q3

20

18

2017,

1.0%

-5

5

15

25

35

45

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

Nov-18, 2.8

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Feb

-17

Jul-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

y-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Nov-18, 7.6

-4-202468

10

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Nov-18, 55.2

45

50

55

60

65

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Se

p-1

8 1

2

3

4

5

6

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018



Figure 9: Oil vs Non-oil revenues (% share) Figure 10: Annual fiscal balance (SAR bn)

Source: Saudi Arabia Finance Ministry, E- Estimate Source: Saudi Arabia Finance Ministry, F-Forecast

Figure 11: Current account balance - quarter

(USD bn)

Figure 12: Current account balance -yearly (USD

bn)

Source: SAMA Source: SAMA

Figure 13: Current Account Balance (%GDP) Figure 14: Trade balance (USD bn)


Figure 15: Trade balance change (% YoY) Figure 16: KSA breakeven oil price (USD/bl)

Source: SAMA Source: News Reports, Thomson Reuters

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019F

Oil revenues Non-oil revenues

-15

-5

5

15

25

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

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20

07

20

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20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19F

Fiscal Balance (SAR bn) - LHS Fiscal Balance (% GDP) - RHS

Q2 2018,

19.2

-25-15-55

15253545

Q1 2

010

Q3

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q3 2

012

Q1

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q1

20

18

66.8

158.5 164.8

135.4

73.8

-56.7

-23.8

15.2

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q2 2018,

11.3

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

Q1

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q1 2

013

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q1

20

18

143

198

97

144

233 233

208

169

29 43

102

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

134.4

-85

-35

15

65

115

165

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

69

.7

79

.4

74

.3

86

.0

10

4.8

88

.3

59

.5

83

.0

85

.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Breakeven Oil Price (USD) Average Brent Price (USD)



Figure 17: Total External Debt (SAR bn) Figure 18: SAMA Reserve Assets* (USD bn)

Source: SAMA Source: SAMA,*- includes special drawing rights

Figure 19: Reserve Assets (% MoM) Figure 20: Bank credit growth (% YoY)


Figure 21: Bank credit across major sectors (SAR

bn) Figure 22: Bank Deposits (SAR bn)


Figure 23: Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%) Figure 24: NPL-to-Total Loans (%)


568.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Nov-18, 504

400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0A

pr-

11

Se

p-1

1Fe

b-1

2Ju

l-1

2D

ec

-12

Ma

y-1

3O

ct-

13

Ma

r-1

4A

ug

-14

Jan

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5A

pr-

16

Se

p-1

6Fe

b-1

7Ju

l-1

7D

ec

-17

Ma

y-1

8O

ct-

18

Nov-18, -

0.04

-4-3-2-1012345

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0A

pr-

11

Se

p-1

1Fe

b-1

2Ju

l-1

2D

ec

-12

Ma

y-1

3O

ct-

13

Ma

r-1

4A

ug

-14

Jan

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5A

pr-

16

Se

p-1

6Fe

b-1

7Ju

l-1

7D

ec

-17

Ma

y-1

8O

ct-

18

Nov-2018,

2.2

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-98

Jan

-00

Feb

-02

Ma

r-0

4

Ap

r-0

6

Ma

y-0

8

Jun

-10

Jul-1

2

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

6

Oc

t-1

80

150

300

450

600

Q1

19

96

Q2

19

97

Q3

19

98

Q4

19

99

Q1

20

01

Q2

20

02

Q3

20

03

Q4

20

04

Q1

20

06

Q2

20

07

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

09

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

18

Manufacturing and Processing Buiding and Construction Commerce Services

Nov-18,

1,623.9

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Jan

-93

Jan

-95

Jan

-97

Jan

-99

Jan

-01

De

c-0

2

De

c-0

4

De

c-0

6

De

c-0

8

De

c-1

0

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

8

Nov-2018,

88.9

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Jan

-93

De

c-9

4

De

c-9

6

De

c-9

8

De

c-0

0

No

v-0

2

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

0

Oc

t-1

2

Oc

t-1

4

Oc

t-16

Oc

t-1

8

Q3 2018,

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1

20

09

Q4

20

09

Q3

20

10

Q2

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q4

20

12

Q3

20

13

Q2

20

14

Q1 2

015

Q4

20

15

Q3

20

16

Q2

20

17

Q1

20

18



Figure 25: Money Supply/M3 growth (% YoY) Figure 26: Composition of M3 money supply (%

share)


Figure 27: Currency Outside Banks (% share of

M3)

Figure 28: Time & Savings Deposits/Total Deposits

(%)


Figure 29: 3M SIBOR (%) Figure 30: Short term interest rate curve (1w to 52

w)


Figure 31: Inflation YoY% (major sub-indices) Figure 32: Real Estate Price Index (100=2013)

Source: SAMA Source: General Authority for Statistics

Nov-2018,

1.94

-10-505

1015202530

Jan

-94

Ap

r-9

6

Jul-9

8

Oc

t-0

0

Jan

-03

Ap

r-0

5

Jul-0

7

Oc

t-0

9

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-1

6

Oc

t-1

8

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan

-93

De

c-9

4

De

c-9

6

De

c-9

8

De

c-0

0

No

v-0

2

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

0

Oc

t-1

2

Oc

t-1

4

Oc

t-1

6

Oc

t-1

8

Currency Outside bank Demand Deposits

Time and Savings Deposits Other Quasi Money Deposits

Nov-18, 9.97

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

-93

No

v-9

4

Se

p-9

6

Jul-9

8

Ma

y-0

0

Ma

r-0

2

Jan

-04

No

v-0

5

Se

p-0

7

Jul-0

9

Ma

y-1

1

Ma

r-1

3

Jan

-15

No

v-1

6

Se

p-1

8

Nov-2018,

26.01

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan

-93

De

c-9

4

No

v-9

6

Oc

t-9

8

Se

p-0

0

Au

g-0

2

Jul-0

4

Jun

-06

Ma

y-0

8

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

r-1

2

Jan

-14

Jan

-16

De

c-1

7

Dec-2018,

2.98

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan

-200

7

Oc

t-2

00

7

Jul-2

00

8

Ap

r-2

00

9

Jan

-201

0

Oc

t-2

01

0

Jul-2

01

1

Ap

r-2

01

2

Jan

-201

3

Oc

t-2

01

3

Jul-2

01

4

Ap

r-2

01

5

Jan

-201

6

Oc

t-2

01

6

Jul-2

01

7

Ap

r-2

01

8 1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1M

3M

6M

12M

Dec-2018 Nov-2018 Dec-2017

7.6

Nov-18, 12.0

-3.1 -5

0

5

10

15

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Food and beveragesTransportHousing , Water, Electricity, Gas, and other fuels

82.3

80

85

90

95

100

105

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q3 2

017

Q1

20

18

Q3

20

18



Figure 33: ATM Cash Withdrawals (SAR bn) Figure 34: Saudi unemployment rate (%)

Source: SAMA Source: General Authority for Statistics

Figure 35: Competitiveness ranking/indicator Figure 36: FDI (accumulated, SAR billions)

Source: World Economic Forum (2018 report) Source: SAMA

Figure 37: External debt-to-GDP (%) Figure 38: POS Transactions Sales (SAR bn)

Source: International Monetary Fund Source: SAMA

Figure 39: Mobile/Telecom Subscribers (mn)

Figure 40: Automobile Sales (‘000s)

Source: Ministry of Communication and IT, Q3 2016 taken as

average of Q2 and Q4 2016

Source: Car Sales Base

Nov-2018,

59.6

01020304050607080

Jul-9

6

Feb

-98

Se

p-9

9

Ap

r-0

1

No

v-0

2

Jun

-04

Jan

-06

Au

g-0

7

Ma

r-0

9

Oc

t-1

0

Ma

y-1

2

De

c-1

3

Jul-1

5

Feb

-17

Se

p-1

8

Q2 2018,

12.9

10

11

12

13

14

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q1 2

018

27 30

39

47 50

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

United

Arab

Qatar Saudi

Arabia

Oman Bahrain Kuwait

870.9

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018,

24%

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

-95

Au

g-9

7

Ma

r-0

0

Oc

t-0

2

Ma

y-0

5

De

c-0

7

Jul-1

0

Feb

-13

Se

p-1

5

Ap

r-1

8

Nov-2018,

19.9

44.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3 2

016

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

518.6

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017



Figure 41: Electricity Generation (TWh) Figure 42: Electricity Generation - Quarterly

(TWh)

Source: Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority Source: Saudi Electric Company

Figure 43: Cement Prices (SAR, 50kg) Figure 44: Steel Prices (SAR/ton)

Source: General Authority of Statistics Source: General Authority of Statistics

Figure 45: Expat Remittances (SAR bn) Figure 46: Labor Force Breakdown (‘000)

Source: SAMA Source: Ministry of Labor, Quarterly data displayed for 2017

onwards

288.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

100.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1 2

016

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Nov- 2018,

12.11

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan

-07

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-1

0

Se

p-1

1

No

v-1

2

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

8

Nov-2018,

2,487

8

1,008

2,008

3,008

4,008

5,008

6,008

Jan

-07

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-10

Se

p-1

1

No

v-1

2

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

8

Nov-2018,

9.9

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

-95

Se

p-9

6

Ma

y-9

8

Jan

-00

Se

p-0

1

Ma

y-0

3

Jan

-05

Se

p-0

6

Ma

y-0

8

Jan

-10

Se

p-1

1

Ma

y-1

3

Jan

-15

Se

p-1

6

Ma

y-1

8

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Non-Saudis Saudis



II. Oil Indicators

Figure 1: Saudi Oil Production (mbpd) Figure 2: Saudi Domestic Oil Demand (mbpd)

Source: Bloomberg Source: IEA

Figure 3: Saudi Oil Export (mbpd) Figure 4: OPEC Oil Production (mbpd)

Source: Ministry of Petroleum, JODI Source: Bloomberg

Figure 5: Global Oil Supply/Demand (mbpd) Figure 6: US Oil Production (mbpd)

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Figure 7: US Oil Inventory (mb) Figure 8: US Rig Count

Source: Reuters Eikon Source: Bloomberg

December-,

10.65

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

De

c-7

0

Ma

r-7

4

Jun

-77

Se

p-8

0

De

c-8

3

Ma

r-87

Jun

-90

Se

p-9

3

De

c-9

6

Ma

r-0

0

Jun

-03

Se

p-0

6

De

c-0

9

Ma

r-1

3

Jun

-16

3.19

0

1

2

3

4

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

E

Q4

20

18

E

Q1

20

19

E

Q2

20

19

E

Q3

20

19

E

Q4

20

19

E

October

2018,

7.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan

-02

Feb

-03

Ma

r-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Ma

y-0

6

Jun

-07

Jul-0

8

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-1

0

Oc

t-1

1

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

3

Jan

-15

Feb

-16

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

8

Dec-2018,

32.6

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

De

c-8

7

Jul-9

0

Feb

-93

Se

p-9

5

Ap

r-9

8

No

v-0

0

Jun

-03

Jan

-06

Au

g-0

8

Ma

r-1

1

Oc

t-1

3

Ma

y-1

6

De

c-1

8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Ma

r-9

5

No

v-9

6

Jul-9

8

Ma

r-0

0

No

v-0

1

Jul-0

3

Ma

r-0

5

No

v-0

6

Jul-0

8

Ma

r-1

0

No

v-1

1

Jul-1

3

Ma

r-1

5

No

v-1

6

Jul-1

8

Nov-2018,

0.3

Nov-2018,

11.7

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan

-97

Se

p-9

8

Ma

y-0

0

Jan

-02

Se

p-0

3

Ma

y-0

5

Jan

-07

Se

p-0

8

Ma

y-1

0

Jan

-12

Se

p-1

3

Ma

y-1

5

Jan

-17

Se

p-1

8

Dec-2018,

441.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Au

g-8

2

Feb

-85

Au

g-8

7

Feb

-90

Au

g-9

2

Feb

-95

Au

g-9

7

Feb

-00

Au

g-0

2

Feb

-05

Au

g-0

7

Feb

-10

Au

g-1

2

Feb

-15

Au

g-1

7

Dec-2018,

885

0

400

800

1200

1600

Jul-8

7

Jun

-91

Ma

y-9

5

Ap

r-9

9

Ma

r-0

3

Feb

-07

Jan

-11

De

c-1

4

No

v-1

8



III. Stock Market Indicators

Figure 1: TASI and Oil Figure 2: TASI Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x)

Source: Bloomberg Source: SAMA, Tadawul

Figure 3: Stock Market Turnover (SAR bn) Figure 4: Domestic Shares held by Domestic

Investment Funds (SAR bn)

Source: Tadawul, SAMA Source: SAMA

Figure 5: Share Ownership Status Figure 6: Total Assets of Investment funds (SAR

bn)


Figure 7: Foreign Ownership % Figure 8: Net Foreign Inflows (USD mn)

Source: Tadawul Source: Tadawul

53.8

Dec-2018,

7827

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

50

100

150

Jun

-97

No

v-9

8

Ap

r-0

0

Se

p-0

1

Feb

-03

Jul-0

4

De

c-0

5

Ma

y-0

7

Oc

t-0

8

Ma

r-1

0

Au

g-1

1

Jan

-13

Jul-1

4

De

c-1

5

Ma

y-1

7

Oc

t-1

8Brent - USD/bl (LHS) TASI (RHS)

December

2018,

16.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

-06

De

c-0

6

No

v-0

7

Oc

t-0

8

Se

p-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jun

-12

Ma

y-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Feb

-16

Jan

-17

De

c-1

7

No

v-1

8

Dec-2018,

60.1

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Jan

-04

No

v-0

4Se

p-0

5Ju

l-0

6M

ay-0

7M

ar-

08

Jan

-09

No

v-0

9Se

p-1

0Ju

l-1

1M

ay-1

2M

ar-

13

Jan

-14

Oc

t-1

4A

ug

-15

Jun

-16

Ap

r-1

7Fe

b-1

8D

ec

-18

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1

19

98

Q3

19

99

Q1

20

01

Q3

20

02

Q1

20

04

Q3

20

05

Q1

20

07

Q3

20

08

Q1

20

10

Q3

20

11

Q1 2

013

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

17

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Jul-2

01

5Se

p-2

015

No

v-2

01

5Ja

n-2

01

6M

ar-

201

6M

ay-2

016

Jul-2

01

6Se

p-2

01

6N

ov

-201

6Ja

n-2

01

7M

ar-

201

7M

ay-2

017

Jul-2

01

7Se

p-2

01

7N

ov

-201

7Ja

n-2

01

8M

ar-

201

8M

ay-2

018

Jul-2

01

8Se

p-2

01

8N

ov

-201

8

Individuals Institutions Govt. Related Entities GCC Investors Foreign Investors

110.2

0

50

100

150

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

3

4

5

6

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Feb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Feb

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Nov-18,

-103.7

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Feb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Feb

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Q3 2018,

22.2

November 2018,

4.67



IV. Corporate earnings

Figure 1: TASI Revenue and YoY growth

(Quarterly) Figure 2: TASI Revenue and YoY growth (Annual)

Source: Reuters Eikon Source: Reuters Eikon

Figure 3: TASI EBITDA and YoY growth (Quarterly) Figure 4: TASI EBITDA and YoY growth (Annual)


Figure 5: TASI PAT and YoY growth (Quarterly) Figure 6: TASI PAT and YoY growth (Annual)


Figure 7: TASI EBITDA and PAT margin (%) -

Quarterly

Figure 8: TASI EBITDA and PAT margin (%) -

Annual

Q3 2018,

186.2

(20) (10) - 10 20 30 40

050

100150200250

Q1

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q3

20

09

Q2

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q3

20

12

Q2

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q3

20

15

Q2

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q3

20

18

Rev (SAR bn)- LHS Rev (%yoy) - RHS

687.7

(10)

-

10

20

30

0

200

400

600

800

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Rev (SAR bn)- LHS Rev (%yoy) - RHS

Q3 2018,

45.9

(40)

(20)

-

20

40

60

0

20

40

60

80

Q1 2

008

Q4

20

08

Q3

20

09

Q2

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q3

20

12

Q2

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q3

20

15

Q2

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q3

20

18

EBITDA (SAR bn) - LHS EBITDA (%yoy) - RHS

219.5

5.2

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

EBITDA (SAR bn) - LHS EBITDA (%yoy) - RHS

Q3 2018

32.8

(200) (150) (100) (50) - 50 100 150

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q1

20

08

Q4 2

008

Q3

20

09

Q2

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q3

20

12

Q2

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q3

20

15

Q2

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q3 2

018


103.3

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

0

50

100

150

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017


Q3 2018,

24.7

17.6

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q1

20

08

Q3 2

008

Q1

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q1 2

017

Q3

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q3

20

18

EBITDA margin Net profit margin

35.5 31.5 31.9 30.9 29.1 29.9 29.5 30.4 30.6 31.9

11.7 15.6 16.8 16.9 16.5 16.9 17.2

15.3 13.9 15.0

0

10

20

30

40

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)



V. Tadawul Sector Earnings Performance

Earnings (SAR mn) Market

Cap. Q3 2018 Q3 2017 Q2 2018 YoY QoQ

Banks 619,679 12,589.2 11,374.2 12,648.0 10.7 -0.5

Materials 597,718 9,789.3 8,722.4 11,184.0 12.2 -12.5

Telecommunication Services 207,752 2,660.1 2,397.5 2,327.4 11.0 14.3

Real Estate 75,235 457.2 -304.5 26.0 NA NA

Food & Beverages 73,592 691.1 1,592.1 909.7 -56.6 -24.0

Utilities 65,610 4,960.6 5,300.7 1,878.8 -6.4 164.0

Insurance 35,967 352.2 759.0 462.5 -53.6 -23.8

Energy 32,081 350.0 784.4 438.1 -55.4 -20.1

Diversified Financials 30,915 256.7 261.5 179.9 -1.8 42.6

Retailing 29,869 316.4 241.7 448.5 30.9 -29.5

Health Care 21,435 179.8 296.8 208.9 -39.4 -13.9

Consumer Services 15,018 -207.9 276.4 201.4 -175.2 -203.3

Transportation 11,466 246.0 286.7 137.7 -14.2 78.6

Capital Goods 8,624 -37.1 28.4 -133.4 -230.8 72.2

Commercial Services 7,626 130.8 125.8 117.2 3.9 11.5

Food & Staples Retailing 7,574 54.7 150.5 64.4 -63.6 -15.0

Media 6,993 37.5 27.7 86.5 35.3 -56.7

Pharma & Biotech 3,600 -3.4 -16.7 35.5 80.0 -109.4

Consumer Durables &

Apparel 2,846 -20.1 -53.8 20.9 62.6 -196.1

Total 1,853,600 32,803 32,251 31,242 1.7 5.0

Source: Bloomberg, MCap and results as of January 08, 2019



H. Annexure 2: Saudi Arabia

Key Statistics



Annexure 2: Saudi Arabia Key Statistics

Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F

Economic Output

Nominal GDP (USD bn) 734.0 744.3 753.8 653.2 646.4 686.7 769.9 795.6

Nominal GDP YoY (%) 9.6 1.4 1.3 -13.3 -1.0 6.2 12.1 3.3

Real GDP YoY (%) 5.4 2.7 3.6 3.4 1.2 -0.7 2.2 2.4

Budget

Revenue (SAR bn) 1247.4 1156.4 1044.4 615.9 519.0 696.0 895.0 975.0

Oil Revenue (SAR bn) 1144.8 1035.0 913.3 446.4 329.0 440.0 608.0 662.0

Non-oil Revenue (SAR bn) 102.6 121.3 131.0 169.5 190.0 256.0 287.0 313.0

Expenditure (SAR bn) 873.3 976.0 1109.9 978.1 830.0 926.0 1030.0 1106.0

Surplus/(Deficit) (SAR bn) 374.1 180.3 -65.5 -362.2 -311.0 -230.0 -136 -131

Surplus/(Deficit) (% GDP) 13.6 6.5 -2.3 -15.0 -12.8 -8.9 -4.6 -4.2

Gross Public Debt (SAR bn) 83.8 60.1 44.3 142.3 316.5 438.0 560 678

Gross Public Debt (% GDP) 3.0 2.2 1.6 5.9 12.3 17.0 19.1 21.7

Oil statistics

Production (mbpd) 9.8 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.2 10.0 10.3 10.2

Exports (mb) 2783.8 2763.3 2611.0 2614.5 2799.0 2540.4 3051.6 2664.5

Trade & External sector

Exports (US$ bn) 388.4 375.9 342.4 203.6 183.6 239.8 242.2 NA

Oil Exports (US$ bn) 337.5 321.9 284.6 152.9 136.2 136.3 147.3 NA

Imports (US$ bn) 155.6 168.2 173.8 174.7 140.2 204.3 208.1 NA

Trade surplus/(deficit) (US$ bn) 232.8 207.7 168.6 28.9 43.4 35.5 34.1 NA

Current Account (US$ bn) 164.8 135.4 73.8 -56.7 -24.9 10.8 15.1 NA

Current Account (% GDP) 22.4 18.2 9.8 -8.7 -3.9 1.5 2.0 NA

SAMA forex reserves (US$ bn) 656.6 725.7 732.4 616.4 535.8 496.4 504.4* NA

Inflation (%) 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 -0.8 2.6 2.3

Demographics

Population (mn) 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.4 31.7 32.7 33.3 NA

Saudi unemployment rate

(% population) 12.1 11.7 11.7 11.5 12.3 12.8 12.9 NA

Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F

Source: SAMA, General Authority of Statistics, Reuters, IMF, MEFIC Research, E- Estimate, F- Forecast



Notes



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