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OFFICE MARKET UPDATE 1H 2016
SAVILLS PCIPANIN TOWER – SENAYAN CITY , 16TH FLOORJALAN ASIA AFRIKA LOT 19JAKARTA 10270
29 March 2016
AB O U T S AV I L L S
G L O B A L L E A D I N G P R O V I D E R
Established in the UK in 1855, Savills is one of the world’s leading providers of property services
with 600 offices and associates across more than 45 countries
Savills are listed on the London Stock Exchange and ranked number one by turnover, by the
highly regarded UK business magazine Estates Gazette, for each of the last ten years. Our
network of expertise throughout Asia Pacific provides our clients with a collaborative platform
like no other throughout over 45 offices and 27,000 staff.
• A FTSE – 250 Listed Company
• Established in 1855
• Market Capitalisation circa £860 million (2013)
• 600 offices and associates worldwide
• 27,000 staff throughout US, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and Middle East
• Largest UK real estate provider by income and profit
• No longer a purely residential agency, 70% of the firm’s revenues
now derive from commercial property
3
A WELL-ESTABLISHED GLOBAL
PRESENCE
Savills is one of the leading firms of
international property consultants
and real estate agents in the
world, with offices throughout Asia,
Australia, Europe, North America
and Africa,
A unique combination of sector
knowledge and entrepreneurial
flair gives clients global access to
real estate expertise of the highest
calibre.
We are regarded as an
innovative-thinking organisation
supported by excellent
negotiating skills. Savills chooses to
focus on a defined set of clients,
offering a premium service to
organisations and individuals with
whom we share a common goal.
S A V I L L S G L O B A L N E T W O R K
4
A S I A P R E S E N C E
Established in Asia since 1985, Savills provides its Asian client base with a full service operation
across all key segments
Headquartered in Hong Kong, with offices in 44 cities, and 22,500 staff in agency and
management services, we provide a wide range of high-quality, comprehensive property-
related services to developers, owners, tenants and investors across all the key segments of
retail, commercial, industrial, residential, and investment property.
5
A W A R D W I N N I N G , I N T E R N A T I O N A L R E C O G N I T I O N
Asia Pacific Property Awards Winner
2014-15
Best Real Estate Agency,
Best Real Estate Agency
Mktg,
Best Property Consultancy
Website, Best Property
Consultancy Mktg
Highly Commended Lettings
Agency, Highly Commended
Property Consultancy
UK Business Superbrand 2014
The leading UK real
estate Superbrand for 6th
consecutive year
Estates Gazette Property Advisor of the Year 2013
Savills won the accolade
for Residential Property
Advisor of the year.
Residential Sales Agency of the
Year 2013
Awarded UK sales
agency of the year at
Property Week’s annual
Resi Awards
TIMES Graduate Recruitment Award 2013
Graduate Employer of
Choice for Property.
Winner for 7 consecutive
years
Best Overall Marketing Campaign
The best overall
marketing campaign for
residential brand building
Leisure Agency of the Year 2013
Leisure agency of the
year at Property Week’s
annual Property Awards
Investors in People Gold
2013
Savills Property
Management won the
2013 gold award from
Investors in People
Retail Agency Team
of the Year 2013
Retail agency team of the
year at the annual Property
Managers Association
Awards
6
S E R V I C E W E P R O V I D E
7
Having operated in Asia for over 25 years, Savills offers a complete range of advisory services to developers, landlords, tenants as well
as property funds and private individuals:
C B D O F F IC E M AR KE T U PD AT E 1H 2016
I N T R O D U C T I O N – J A K A R T A C B D M A P
9
CBD (Golden Triangle)
Commercial area bounded by:
Jl. Sudirman - Thamrin
Jl. Gatot Subroto
Jl. Rasuna Said (Kuningan)
Additionally,
Jl. Satrio (Casablanca)
Jl. Mas Mansyur
Jl. Asia Afrika
Incl. SCBD & Mega Kuningan complex
are included within the CBD
classification.
The Non-CBD
Covers the commercial areas outside
of the CBD, which classified by
municipality:
Central Jakarta
South Jakarta
East Jakarta
West Jakarta
North Jakarta
J A K A R T A C B D O F F I C E M A R K E T R E V I E W – S U P P L Y & D E M A N D
10
Office building supply in CBD
increased significantly in 2015. More
than 510,000 sqm office space
entered the market last year.
Total existing stock in the Jakarta CBD
by end of 2015 stood at around 5.18
million sqm.
The majority of existing stock in the
CBD are Grade B buildings (34%)
followed by Grade A buildings (33%).
Premium office buildings account for
around 20% of total stock.
New enquiries were limited in 2015 due
the slowing down economy. The
period of 2014 and 2015 only saw net
space take-up below 100,000 sqm.
As a result, some of the newly-
completed projects experienced low
occupation upon opening. This led to
an increase in vacancy from 4.9% at
end-2014 to 11.8% by end-2015.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Supply Net Take-up Vacancy
Supply, Demand & Vacancy – CBD Overall
4Q2015 4Q2014
Existing Stock (sqm) 5,187,114 4,729,523
Premium 1,047,360 982,060
Grade A 1,714,667 1,300,892
Grade B 1,771,344 1,768,388
Grade C 653,743 678,183
Market Indicators – Office | CBD
© Copyright Savills 2016
J A K A R T A C B D O F F I C E M A R K E T R E V I E W – S U P P L Y & D E M A N D
11
There were limited enquiries during
the period of 2014 and 2015 – Net
office take-up idling below 100,00
sqm, respectively.
Vacancies in most segments
remained stable, except in Grade
A and Premium segment due to
significant supply increase in 2015
and slowing economic condition.
Premium Grade buildings vacancy
dropped to around 8.7%.
Meanwhile, available space in
Grade A buildings surged from
6.4% at end 2014 to 21.9.% by mid-
2015.
Currently, there is around 613,000
sqm of vacant space in Jakarta
CBD, 61% of which are Grade A
buildings.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C Annual Take-up
Net Take-up & Proportion by Grade
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Premium Grade Grade A Grade B Grade C
Vacancy (By Grade)
© Copyright Savills 2016
J A K A R T A C B D O F F I C E M A R K E T R E V I E W – R E N T A L
12
Rents by Grade Average achievable rental price has
increased nearly 2.5 times in 2014 from
2010. However, rental dropped in
2015 following market slowdown
starting in 2014.
The market slowdown had also
impacted rental growth over the past
2 years particularly for Premium
buildings. Further in 2015, a market
correction applies to all grades.
While all other segments have
suffered from declining rental, rents in
Premium Grade buildings declined by
around 12% in USD terms compared
to last year.
By end-2015, both Premium and
Grade A rental stood at US$32.28 and
Rp 266,042/sqm/month, respectively.2H2015 2H2014
AVG Rent (/sqm /mth) Rp 220,231 Rp 227,908
Premium Grade US$ 32.28 US$ 36.60
Grade A Rp 266,042 Rp 286,918
Grade B Rp 206,160 Rp 215,050
Grade C Rp 144,072 Rp 147,984
Market Indicators – Office | CBD
© Copyright Savills 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C
IDR
/sqm
/month
J A K A R T A C B D O F F I C E M A R K E T R E V I E W – M A R K E T O U T L O O K
13
Significant amount of new supply
is anticipated to enter the market
in Jakarta CBD in the next four
years.
Approx. 2.3 million sqm of new
supply is scheduled for
completion between now and
2019 - This number does not
include projects that are currently
in the planning and approval
stages.
On average, the market will
receive 500,000 sqm of annual
supply over the next two years
and with this likely grow to
600,000 sqm p.a. in the 2018-2019
period.
By grade, majority of future
supply contribution will be from
Grade A office (55%), followed by
Premium Grade (41%).
By area, around half of the future
supply will be realized from
projects along Sudirman corridor.
2015 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) 2019 (F)
Future Stock (sqm) 510,531 536,096 418,178 880,234 513,642
Premium Grade 65,300 140,740 - 526,999 283,920
Grade A 413,775 356,800 347,074 353,235 229,722
Grade B 31,456 38,556 71,104 - -
Grade C - - - - -
Sudirman 263,775 50,229 189,138 594,778 214,000
Thamrin - - 22,500 94,000 70,000
Kuningan 81,456 275,356 152,604 191,456 229,642
Gatot Subroto 165,300 210,511 53,936 - -
Future Supply – Office | CBD
Annual Supply – Office | CBD
© Copyright Savills 2016
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
completed
proposed supply based on developer’s schedule
proposed supply based on probability weighting
J A K A R T A C B D O F F I C E M A R K E T R E V I E W – M A R K E T O U T L O O K
14
Within the short term (1-2 years)
demand is expected to remain
limited with the expectation of a
gradual economic recovery.
With demand only projected to
grow in stages, the significant
amount of new supply will increase
vacancy to a higher level, peaking
at around 20% by 2019.
The surge in available space is likely
to drag down office rents,
particularly for Premium and Grade
A buildings.
Based on moderate scenario, it is
anticipated that rents in Premium
and Grade A will shrink by around
40% and 34%, respectively, by 2019.
Over the same period, rents for
Grade B are projected to fall by
28%.
Supply, Take-up, Vacancy Projection – Office | CBD (Probability Weighting)
Rent Forecast – Office | CBD
© Copyright Savills 2016
0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
13%
15%
18%
20%
23%
25%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
New Supply Net Take-up Vacancy
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016F 2018F
Premium* Grade A Grade B Grade C
ADDRESS
SAVILLS PCI
PANIN TOWER – SENAYAN CITY , 16TH FLOOR
JALAN ASIA AFRIKA LOT 19
JAKARTA 10270