Saving and Capital Formation Principles of Macroeconomics Dr. Gabriel X. Martinez Ave Maria...

Saving and Capital Formation

Saving and Capital Formation

Principles of Macroeconomics

Dr. Gabriel X. Martinez

Ave Maria University

Chapter 22: Saving and Capital FChapter 22: Saving and Capital Formationormation

22

IntroductionIntroduction

Why save?Why save?– To meet future expenditures.To meet future expenditures.– To protect against an economic emergency.To protect against an economic emergency.– To acquire income-producing assets.To acquire income-producing assets.

– For society as a whole, to produce capital For society as a whole, to produce capital goods, so to increase future income.goods, so to increase future income.


33

Savings and WealthSavings and Wealth

SavingSaving– Current income minus spending on current Current income minus spending on current

needs.needs.– Confusion Alert: SavingConfusion Alert: Savingss is accumulated is accumulated

savingsaving__.. If all your wealth comes from savingIf all your wealth comes from saving__ (not spending), (not spending),

wealth = savingwealth = savingss..

Saving RateSaving Rate– Saving_ divided by income.Saving_ divided by income.


44


Example:Example:– As a graduate student, I earned $10,000 a year, As a graduate student, I earned $10,000 a year,

and spent about $9,700 a year.and spent about $9,700 a year.– My My savingsaving was $300 per year. was $300 per year.– My My saving ratesaving rate was 300/10,000 = 3%. was 300/10,000 = 3%.

Was my saving rate very low?Was my saving rate very low?

– If I had saved $1,300 a year, my saving rate If I had saved $1,300 a year, my saving rate would have been 13%.would have been 13%.


55


Example:Example:– As a graduate student, I saved $300 per year.As a graduate student, I saved $300 per year.– Since I was in grad school for 6 years, I saved Since I was in grad school for 6 years, I saved

about $300 x 6 = $1800.about $300 x 6 = $1800.– So my graduation-day So my graduation-day savingssavings were $1800. were $1800.

Saving_ and Income are Saving_ and Income are flowsflows.. ““SavingSavingss” is a stock.” is a stock.


66

Household Saving Rate in the Household Saving Rate in the United States, 1959 - 2006United States, 1959 - 2006

Observations•Household saving has fallen dramatically•National saving has not declined in recent years

Household Saving

Household Income


77

Gross Private Saving Rate in the Gross Private Saving Rate in the United States, 1959 - 2006United States, 1959 - 2006


Household + Business Saving

Household + Business Income

Gross Private Saving Rate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan-

59

Jan-

62

Jan-

65

Jan-

68

Jan-

71

Jan-

74

Jan-

77

Jan-

80

Jan-

83

Jan-

86

Jan-

89

Jan-

92

Jan-

95

Jan-

98

Jan-

01

Jan-

04


88

Gross (National) Saving Rate in Gross (National) Saving Rate in the United States, 1959 - 2006the United States, 1959 - 2006


Household + Business +

GovernmentSaving

Household + Business + Government

Income

Gross (National) Saving Rate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan-

59

Jan-

62

Jan-

65

Jan-

68

Jan-

71

Jan-

74

Jan-

77

Jan-

80

Jan-

83

Jan-

86

Jan-

89

Jan-

92

Jan-

95

Jan-

98

Jan-

01

Jan-

04


99


WealthWealth– The value of assets minus liabilities.The value of assets minus liabilities.

AssetsAssets– Anything of value that one owns.Anything of value that one owns.

Real Assets, like a car.Real Assets, like a car. Financial Assets, like a savings account or a bond.Financial Assets, like a savings account or a bond.

LiabilitiesLiabilities– The debts one owes.The debts one owes.


1010

Consuelo’s Balance SheetConsuelo’s Balance Sheet

Assets

Cash $ 80

Checking account 1,200

Shares of stock 1,000

Car (market value) 3,500

Furniture (market value) 500

Total Assets $6,280

LiabilitiesStudent loan $3,000

Credit card balance 250

______

Total Liabilities 3,250

Net worth $3,030

•Wealth ($3,030) = Assets ($6,280) - Liabilities ($3,250)


1111

Savings and WealthSavings and Wealth FlowFlow

– A measure that is defined per unit of time.A measure that is defined per unit of time. Saving is a flow and is defined per unit of time (saving/week).Saving is a flow and is defined per unit of time (saving/week). Flow is the rate of change in the stock.Flow is the rate of change in the stock.

StockStock– A measure that is defined at a point in timeA measure that is defined at a point in time

Wealth is a stock and is defined at a point in time (wealth on a Wealth is a stock and is defined at a point in time (wealth on a given date). Savinggiven date). Savingss are a stock too. are a stock too.

Every dollar people save addsEvery dollar people save addsto their wealth.to their wealth.


1212

Savings and WealthSavings and Wealth ExampleExample

Saving Wealth

10 10

20 30

-10 20

-15 5

35 40

40 80

-40 40

30 70

Why Do People Save?Why Do People Save?


1717

Why Do People Save?Why Do People Save? Life-Cycle SavingLife-Cycle Saving

– Saving to meet long-term objectives, such as retirement, Saving to meet long-term objectives, such as retirement, college attendance, or the purchase of a home.college attendance, or the purchase of a home. What is the effect of Social Security and Federal financial aidWhat is the effect of Social Security and Federal financial aid

on this kind of saving?on this kind of saving?

Precautionary SavingPrecautionary Saving– Saving for protection against unexpected setbacks, Saving for protection against unexpected setbacks,

such as the loss of a job or a medical emergency.such as the loss of a job or a medical emergency. What is the effect of Medicare/aid on this kind of saving?What is the effect of Medicare/aid on this kind of saving?

Bequest SavingBequest Saving– Saving done for the purpose of leaving an inheritance.Saving done for the purpose of leaving an inheritance.

What is the effect of weak family ties on this kind of saving?What is the effect of weak family ties on this kind of saving?


1818

Saving and WealthSaving and Wealth

If people save for retirement or to diminish If people save for retirement or to diminish uncertainty, they save to accumulate wealth.uncertainty, they save to accumulate wealth.

Suppose the value of my stock market (financial) Suppose the value of my stock market (financial) investments, or that the value of my house goes investments, or that the value of my house goes up.up.

Then my wealth increases.Then my wealth increases. I will save less – consume more.I will save less – consume more.

– This is called the wealth effect.This is called the wealth effect.– The stock market boom of the 1990s and the housing The stock market boom of the 1990s and the housing

boom of the 2000s have had this effect.boom of the 2000s have had this effect.


1919


Saving and the Real Interest RateSaving and the Real Interest Rate– The higher the real rate the greater the reward The higher the real rate the greater the reward

from saving.from saving.

– A greater reward may encourage a higher A greater reward may encourage a higher saving rate.saving rate. Financial Liberalization in developing countries was Financial Liberalization in developing countries was

carried out with this rationale.carried out with this rationale.

)( inflation )( rate interest nominal )( Rate Interest Real ir


2020


Saving

Rea

l in

tere

st r

ate

(%)

Saving S

S

r

r’

S’

Components of Components of National SavingNational Saving


2626

The Measurement of National SavingThe Measurement of National Saving– Real income or expenditures (Real income or expenditures (YY) = Consumption ) = Consumption

((CC) + Investment () + Investment (II) + Government () + Government (GG) + Net ) + Net exports (exports (NXNX)) Y = C + I + G + NXY = C + I + G + NX

– Saving = Saving = Y - Y - spending on current needsspending on current needs

– If we were to assume If we were to assume NX NX = 0:= 0: Y = C + I + GY = C + I + G

National Saving and Its ComponentsNational Saving and Its Components


2727

Net Exports and Net Exports and ForeignForeign Saving Saving

NX = difference between foreign spending NX = difference between foreign spending on our goods and our spending on foreign on our goods and our spending on foreign goods.goods.– If NX < 0, it must be financed by borrowing from If NX < 0, it must be financed by borrowing from

abroad.abroad.– In other words, foreigners must save. NX = In other words, foreigners must save. NX =

foreign saving.foreign saving.– If NX < 0, foreign saving is positive.If NX < 0, foreign saving is positive.– See Chapter 24See Chapter 24


2828

Saving = Y - spending on current needsSaving = Y - spending on current needs

S = Y – C – GS = Y – C – G



2929

The Measurement of National SavingThe Measurement of National Saving– Determining spending on today’s needsDetermining spending on today’s needs

I = I = spending on capital goods and residential spending on capital goods and residential housing.housing.

C C includes durable goods which may be current and includes durable goods which may be current and future needsfuture needs

GG may also include current and future needs. may also include current and future needs.

– Assume that all Assume that all C C and and GG are current need are current need expenditures.expenditures.

– National Saving (National Saving (SS) = ) = Y – C – GY – C – G



3030

National Saving (National Saving (SS) = ) = Y – C – GY – C – G

U.S. National SavingU.S. National SavingRate, 1960 - 2001Rate, 1960 - 2001


3131

Private and Public Components of National Private and Public Components of National SavingSaving– National Saving (National Saving (SS) = ) = Y - C - GY - C - G

S = Y - C - G + T - TS = Y - C - G + T - T

S = (Y - T - C) + (T - G)S = (Y - T - C) + (T - G)

– Private saving = Private saving = SSprivateprivate = = Y - T - CY - T - C

– Public saving = Public saving = SSpublicpublic = = T - GT - G



3232

Private and Public Components of National Private and Public Components of National SavingSaving– National Saving (National Saving (SS) = ) = Y - C - GY - C - G

TT (net taxes) = private-sector tax payments - (net taxes) = private-sector tax payments - transfertransfer paymentspayments and interest payments and interest payments

– Private saving = Private saving = SSprivateprivate = = Y - T - CY - T - C

– Public saving = Public saving = SSpublicpublic = = T - GT - G



3333

Private and Public Components of Private and Public Components of National SavingNational Saving– Two components of private saving Two components of private saving

(S(Sprivate private = =Y - T - C)Y - T - C)

– Household (personal) savingHousehold (personal) saving– Business savingBusiness saving

Makes the majority of US private saving.Makes the majority of US private saving.



3434

Private and Public Components of Private and Public Components of National SavingNational Saving– SSpublicpublic = = T - GT - G

– IncludesIncludes FederalFederal StateState LocalLocal



3535

Private and Public Components of Private and Public Components of National SavingNational Saving– S = S = ((Y - T - CY - T - C)) + + ((T - GT - G))

– S = SS = Sprivateprivate + S + Spublicpublic

– National Saving (National Saving (SS) is composed of ) is composed of saving saving byby households, businesses, and government households, businesses, and government

Private Public



3636

Government Budget Deficit (SGovernment Budget Deficit (Spublicpublic < 0) < 0)– The excess of government spending over tax The excess of government spending over tax

collections (collections (G - TG - T) > 0.) > 0. Government saving is negative: T < G.Government saving is negative: T < G.

Government Budget Surplus (SGovernment Budget Surplus (Spublicpublic > 0) > 0)– The excess of government tax collections The excess of government tax collections

over government spending (over government spending (T - GT - G) > 0.) > 0. Government saving is positive T > GGovernment saving is positive T > G

– The government budget surplus equals The government budget surplus equals public saving.public saving.



3737

Public Saving and the Government Public Saving and the Government BudgetBudget– 2000 2000 SSpublicpublic= T = T - G- G

Federal: Federal: 218.5 = 2,046.8 - 1,828.3218.5 = 2,046.8 - 1,828.3 State & local: State & local: 32.8 = 1,222.6 - 1,189.8 32.8 = 1,222.6 - 1,189.8 SSpublicpublic = = 251.3 = 3,269.4 - 2,018.1 251.3 = 3,269.4 - 2,018.1



3838

Public Saving and the Government Public Saving and the Government BudgetBudget– 1995 1995 SSpublicpublic= T - G= T - G

Federal: Federal: -174.4 = 1,460.3 - -174.4 = 1,460.3 - 1,634.71,634.7

State & local: State & local: 111.7 = 997.7 - 111.7 = 997.7 - 886.0886.0

SSpublicpublic = = -62.7 = 2,458.0 - -62.7 = 2,458.0 -

2520.7 2520.7



3939

Net Federal Government Saving Rate

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Jan-

47

Jan-

49

Jan-

51

Jan-

53

Jan-

55

Jan-

57

Jan-

59

Jan-

61

Jan-

63

Jan-

65

Jan-

67

Jan-

69

Jan-

71

Jan-

73

Jan-

75

Jan-

77

Jan-

79

Jan-

81

Jan-

83

Jan-

85

Jan-

87

Jan-

89

Jan-

91

Jan-

93

Jan-

95

Jan-

97

Jan-

99

Jan-

01

Jan-

03

Jan-

05

Public Saving, 1947- 2001Public Saving, 1947- 2001


4040

The Three Components of National The Three Components of National Saving, 1960- 2001Saving, 1960- 2001


4141

Is Low Household Saving a Problem?Is Low Household Saving a Problem?– National saving, not household saving, National saving, not household saving,

determines the capacity of the economy to determines the capacity of the economy to invest in new capital goods.invest in new capital goods.

– National saving has been reasonably stable National saving has been reasonably stable despite the decline in household saving.despite the decline in household saving.

– The low household saving rate signals a The low household saving rate signals a problem of growing inequality in wealth problem of growing inequality in wealth among U.S. households.among U.S. households.

– It signals a consumerist attitude.It signals a consumerist attitude.


Investment and Capital Investment and Capital FormationFormation


4343

InvestmentInvestment– Investment -- the purchase of new capital goods Investment -- the purchase of new capital goods

and housing -- is necessary to increase average and housing -- is necessary to increase average labor productivity.labor productivity. Capital goods will be accumulated only if firms want Capital goods will be accumulated only if firms want

to purchase them.to purchase them.

– National saving is the source of funding for National saving is the source of funding for investment.investment.

Investment and Capital FormationInvestment and Capital Formation


4444

InvestmentInvestment– Investment spending is undertaken if it is Investment spending is undertaken if it is

expected to be profitable.expected to be profitable.


Benefit from

Investment Cost from Investment

Profit

Profit rate=

VMPof capital

Interest rate

=r

Profit


4545

InvestmentInvestment– The benefit must exceed the cost of the The benefit must exceed the cost of the

investmentinvestment



4646

InvestmentInvestment– Suppose I want to buy a unit of capital.Suppose I want to buy a unit of capital.– While I have it, I receive the benefit of extra While I have it, I receive the benefit of extra

production, or rather, the benefit of the extra production, or rather, the benefit of the extra revenue that I get from selling that production.revenue that I get from selling that production.

Marginal Product x Marginal RevenueMarginal Product x Marginal Revenue==

Value of the Marginal ProductValue of the Marginal Product



4747

InvestmentInvestment– Suppose I want to buy a unit of capital.Suppose I want to buy a unit of capital.– I could borrow the money from the bank.I could borrow the money from the bank.

And pay the loan interest rate.And pay the loan interest rate.

– Alternatively, I could take out money from my Alternatively, I could take out money from my bank account, and buy the machine with it.bank account, and buy the machine with it. And lose the saving interest rate.And lose the saving interest rate.

– Either way, the interest rate is a key determinant Either way, the interest rate is a key determinant of the cost of buying the machine.of the cost of buying the machine.



4848

InvestmentInvestment– The benefit must exceed the cost of the The benefit must exceed the cost of the

investment. In other words:investment. In other words:– The value of marginal product of capitalThe value of marginal product of capital

After-tax net revenue per unit, minus the opportunity After-tax net revenue per unit, minus the opportunity cost (the income from other activities that is foregone)cost (the income from other activities that is foregone)

– must exceed must exceed the real interest ratethe real interest rate..



4949

ExampleExample– Should Larry buy a riding lawn mower?Should Larry buy a riding lawn mower?

Cost of lawn mower = $4,000Cost of lawn mower = $4,000 Interest on loan = 6%Interest on loan = 6%

Net revenue = $6,000Net revenue = $6,000 Taxes = 20%Taxes = 20% Larry could earn $4,400 after tax elsewhereLarry could earn $4,400 after tax elsewhere

– Assume the mower can be resold for $4,000Assume the mower can be resold for $4,000 value of liability (loan) = value of asset (mower)value of liability (loan) = value of asset (mower)



5050


Net revenue Net revenue $6,000$6,000 Less Taxes (20%) Less Taxes (20%) $1,200$1,200 Equal after-tax revenueEqual after-tax revenue $4,800$4,800 Less Opportunity Cost Less Opportunity Cost $4,400$4,400 Equals VMP of lawnmower Equals VMP of lawnmower $400$400



5151


Net revenue Net revenue $6,000$6,000 Less Taxes (20%) Less Taxes (20%) $1,200$1,200 Equal after-tax revenueEqual after-tax revenue $4,800$4,800 Less Opportunity Cost Less Opportunity Cost $4,400$4,400 Equals VMP of lawnmower Equals VMP of lawnmower $400$400 Less Interest (6%)Less Interest (6%) $240$240 Equals Net BenefitEquals Net Benefit $160$160



5252

Factors that Determine the Investment Factors that Determine the Investment DecisionDecision– Measuring the costsMeasuring the costs

Real interest rateReal interest rate Price of capital goodsPrice of capital goods

– Suppose that VMP is constant at 400.Suppose that VMP is constant at 400.– Then Then lowerlower interest rates will interest rates will raise raise the benefit of the benefit of

investment in capital goods.investment in capital goods.



5353


r = 12%r = 12% r = 10%r = 10% r = 8%r = 8% r = 6%r = 6% r = 4%r = 4%

Net RevenueNet Revenue 60006000 60006000 60006000 60006000 60006000

Less TaxesLess Taxes 12001200 12001200 12001200 12001200 12001200

After Tax After Tax RevenueRevenue 48004800 48004800 48004800 48004800 48004800

Less Opp. CostLess Opp. Cost 44004400 44004400 44004400 44004400 44004400

VMPVMP 400400 400400 400400 400400 400400

Less InterestLess Interest 480480 400400 320320 240240 160160

Net BenefitNet Benefit -80-80 0 80 160 240


5454

Factors that Determine the Investment Factors that Determine the Investment DecisionDecision– Measuring the benefitsMeasuring the benefits

Value of marginal productValue of marginal product– Productivity of Capital.Productivity of Capital.– The relative price of the good or service produced by the The relative price of the good or service produced by the

capital.capital.– Operating expenseOperating expense– Maintenance expenseMaintenance expense– Tax liability.Tax liability.



5555

ExampleExample– Suppose Larry owns a print shop.Suppose Larry owns a print shop.– He would like to buy more than one printer.He would like to buy more than one printer.

(it would allow him to run more than one print job at (it would allow him to run more than one print job at the same time). Each costs $5500.the same time). Each costs $5500.

– Every extra printer brings extra production, but Every extra printer brings extra production, but at a decreasing rate.at a decreasing rate. Larry has to run around from printer to printer.Larry has to run around from printer to printer. There’s more of a chance for mistakes.There’s more of a chance for mistakes.

– For simplicity, ignore taxes and opportunity costs.For simplicity, ignore taxes and opportunity costs.



5656

Investment and Capital FormationInvestment and Capital Formation# #

PrintersPrintersTotal Product Total Product

per yearper year MP per yearMP per yearPrice per Price per print jobprint job

= MR= MR

Value of the Value of the Marginal Marginal ProductProduct

11 15001500 15001500 $0.50$0.50 750750

22 27502750 12501250 $0.50$0.50 625625

33 37503750 10001000 $0.50$0.50 500500

44 45004500 750750 $0.50$0.50 375375

55 50005000 500500 $0.50$0.50 250250

66 52505250 250250 $0.50$0.50 125125

77 52505250 00 $0.50$0.50 00


5757

# printers 11 22 33 44 55 66 77

r 750750 625625 500500 375375 250250 125125 00

r =12%r =12% 660660 9090 -35-35 -160-160 -285-285 -410-410 -535-535 -660-660

r =10%r =10% 550550 200200 7575 -50-50 -175-175 -300-300 -425-425 -550-550

r = 8%r = 8% 440440 310310 185185 6060 -65-65 -190-190 -315-315 -440-440

r = 6%r = 6% 330330 420420 295295 170170 4545 -80-80 -205-205 -330-330

r = r = 4% 220220 530530 405405 280280 155155 3030 -95-95 -220-220


Interest paid per printerInterest paid per printer= r * $5500= r * $5500

VMP: benefit of each additional printerVMP: benefit of each additional printer


5858

12%12%

10%10%

8%8%

6%6%

4%

11 22 33 44 55 66 77


Amount of Investment

Inte

rest

Rat

e


5959


Investment

Rea

l in

tere

st r

ate

(%)

Investment I

I

r

r’

I’


6060

Economic NaturalistEconomic Naturalist– Why has investment in computers increased by Why has investment in computers increased by

so much in recent decades?so much in recent decades? Because the marginal productivity of computers has Because the marginal productivity of computers has

increased tremendously.increased tremendously. Higher marginal productivity means higher value of Higher marginal productivity means higher value of

the marginal product.the marginal product. More computers become affordable, at the same More computers become affordable, at the same

level of interest rates, because they produce more.level of interest rates, because they produce more. The Investment Curve shifts to the right.The Investment Curve shifts to the right.



6161

# printers 11 22 33 44 55 66 77

r 750750 625625 500500 375375 250250 125125 00

r =12%r =12% 660660 9090 -35-35 -160-160 -285-285 -410-410 -535-535 -660-660

r =10%r =10% 550550 200200 7575 -50-50 -175-175 -300-300 -425-425 -550-550

r = 8%r = 8% 440440 310310 185185 6060 -65-65 -190-190 -315-315 -440-440

r = 6%r = 6% 330330 420420 295295 170170 4545 -80-80 -205-205 -330-330

r = r = 4% 220220 530530 405405 280280 155155 3030 -95-95 -220-220



VMP: benefit of each additional printerVMP: benefit of each additional printer


6262


# #

printersprinters 11 22 33 44 55 66 77

r r 850850 725725 600600 475475 350350 225225 100100

r =12%r =12% 660660 190190 6565 -60-60 -185-185 -310-310 -435-435 -560-560

r =10%r =10% 550550 300300 175175 5050 -75-75 -200-200 -325-325 -450-450

r = 8%r = 8% 440440 410410 285285 160160 3535 -90-90 -215-215 -340-340

r = 6%r = 6% 330330 520520 395395 270270 145145 2020 -105-105 -230-230

r = 4%r = 4% 220220 630630 505505 380380 255255 130130 55 -120-120


VMP: increased benefit of each additional printerVMP: increased benefit of each additional printer


6363


Investment

Rea

l in

tere

st r

ate

(%)

I’

I

r

I’

I


6464

Investment in Computers Investment in Computers and Software, 1960 - 2001and Software, 1960 - 2001

Saving, Investment, and Saving, Investment, and Financial MarketsFinancial Markets


6666

Savings (Savings (SS))– Is the supply of savingIs the supply of saving– The quantity supplied of saving is directly The quantity supplied of saving is directly

related to the real interest rate (related to the real interest rate (rr))

Investment (Investment (II))– Is the demand for savingIs the demand for saving– The quantity demanded for saving is inversely The quantity demanded for saving is inversely

related to related to r.r.

Saving, Investment, and Financial Saving, Investment, and Financial MarketsMarkets


6767

Market for SavingsMarket for Savings– The market will determine the equilibrium (The market will determine the equilibrium (rr).).– If If r r is above equilibrium, a surplus of savings is above equilibrium, a surplus of savings

will exist.will exist.– If If rr is below equilibrium, a shortage of is below equilibrium, a shortage of

savings will exist.savings will exist.



6868

Saving and investment

Rea

l in

tere

st r

ate

(%)

Investment I

Saving S

S, I

r

The Supply and DemandThe Supply and DemandFor SavingsFor Savings


6969


Rea

l in

tere

st r

ate

(%)

I

rE

S

I’

r’F

New Technology• Raises the marginal

productivity of capital• This increases the

demand for capital

The Effect of a New Technology The Effect of a New Technology on National Saving and Investmenton National Saving and Investment


7070


Rea

l in

tere

st r

ate

(%)

S

I

r

Er’

F

S’

Increases in the government budget deficit:•Reduces S public and national saving•r will increase•S & I will fall

The Effects of An Increase in the Government The Effects of An Increase in the Government Budget Deficit On National Saving and Budget Deficit On National Saving and

InvestmentInvestment


7171

Crowding OutCrowding Out– The tendency of increased government The tendency of increased government

deficits to reduce investment spending.deficits to reduce investment spending. Higher public deficits reduce national saving.Higher public deficits reduce national saving. Lower saving at any interest rate creates an Lower saving at any interest rate creates an

excess demand for saving funds.excess demand for saving funds. Interest rates rise, making investment more Interest rates rise, making investment more

expensive.expensive. Investment falls.Investment falls.


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