Scaling Intelligence

Art + Science @ Scale March 5th, 2014 Digital Government Conference Jason Juma-Ross Lead Partner, Digital Intelligence @ideasoc

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An unhelpful debate

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The optimizer’s curse

Source: Smith & Winkler (2006)

Distribution of each value estimate

Distribution of maximum value estimates

A decision-maker who consistently chooses alternatives based on her estimated values should expect to be disappointed on average, even if the individual value estimates are conditionally unbiased.

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Removing the constraints

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Linear combination = constraint imposition

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Analysis

PowerPoint

Presentation

Debate

Inaction

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Three modes of decision-making

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Thinking like a fighter pilot

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Sense Orient Decide Act

•  Instrumentation •  Sensors •  Direct feedback

Faster, cheaper

•  Actuators •  Automated operations

Intelligent Agent

Wetware

IFTT

Machine

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Visualisation: data | wetware

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If this then that: rule based mode

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Machine leaning mode

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WETWARE IFTT MACHINE MACHINE

In real applications, all three modes get combined Example: social network analysis

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NoSQL Sentiment Mining SQL

CRM

DMP

Dash-boards

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Artificial intelligence isn’t

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Thank You! jason.juma-ross@au.pwc.com @ideasoc

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