SCDL Project

7/24/2019 SCDL Project

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APROJECTREPORT

ON

CAPACITYPLANNINGOFPZSGROUPINBFL

BY

CHETAN SHITOLE

REG.NO.-201200480

(20122014)

INPARTIALFULFILLMENTOF

PGBA-OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

SYMBIOSIS CENTRE FOR ISTANCE LEARNING (SCL)

PUNE!41101"


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AC#NO$LEGEMENT

A project of this nature calls for intellectual nourishment, professional help and

encouragement from many quarters. Iwould like to expressmy gratitude to my project

mentor% M&. S'*+, ,' for his invaluable guidance, directions and intent

supervision at every step ofthisproject work.

I would like thank M&. B.N #'/', Chairman and ! of "harat #orge $td who

provided me the opportunity of doi ng project in "harat forge. I would also like to

offermy acknowledgement to M&. S.J G''' %A&', ''C dept.( and M&.

M'+, R'+,3'& %)r. anager, ''C dept.( and the complete staff of ''C

department for their support and guidance throughout the project.

Iwould also like to showmy gratitude towards)C!$ for giving me the opportunity to

work on this project.

M&. C,' S,*/


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ABSTRACT

*he objective of the project is to do capacity planning of '+) group and to study the

orkingand functioning ofthe ''C department. Capacity versesdemand isstudied for

different pressesunder'+)group, for fewpresseswhere the demand doesnot matches

the effective capacity the factorsof- and cycle time are studied. !emand forecasting

is done using the least square method to know the future requirement and plan

accordingly for future. According to the forecast the demand will be exceeding the

capacity/ therefore the company should start working on how to increase the

capacity. )teps in capacity planning are studied to understand the planning process,

and also suggest a particularstrategy to use forfuture planning.


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INE

S&.N*. C*+0 I&*567*

0.0 Company 'rofile0.1 "harat #orge history0.2 ajormilestones0.3 #orging facilities

0.3.0 Closed die forging facilities0.3.1 -pen die forging facilities

0.4 Clientsof"#$0.5 "riefoverviewof"#$0.6 aterial flowin "#$0.7 )tepsin forging process0.8 'roductsof"harat #orge

0.8.0 Closed die forging products0.8.1 -pen die forging products

1 L&'6&&1.0 'roduction planning and control

1.0.0 'rinciple ofplanning and control1.0.1 #unction of''C1.0.2 'lanning in "#$1.0.3 Controlling in "#$1.0.4 -bjectivesof''C1.0.5 'rocesscarried out by ''C in "#$1.0.7 Co9ordination of''C with otherdepartment

1.1 Capacity planning1.1.0 Introduction to capacity planning

1.1.1 :eed ofthe project1.1.3 Capacity decision1.1.4 #actorsaffecting capacity planning

1.2 'rime area ; '+)group1.2.0 Important parametersofpressesand hammers

2 9'5'/6'*2.0 #orecasting

2.0.0 #orecasting methods2.1 !emand pattern

2.1.0 Customerwise2.1.1 'art wise

2.1.2 2220

232528283>303030353536

3738404040434545


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3.1.1 ffective capacity vsdemand 533.2 'lanning forfuture 54

4 ''''/++'5&:&'* 574.0 - analysis 574.1 'areto chart formajordowntime 63

5 S6+*+ 675.0 Checklist ofthe preventive maintenance 685.1 Adjustmentsto capacity 685.3 Capacity planning strategies

6 R;&7+ 71


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LISTOFFIGURES

S&.N*. F6&N*.0 #ig.:o. 0.01 #ig.:o. 0.12 #ig.:o. 0.23 #ig.:o. 0.34 #ig.:o. 0.45 #ig.:o. 0.56 #ig.:o. 0.67 #ig.:o. 0.78 #ig.:o. 0.800 #ig.:o. 1.001 #ig.:o. 1.102 #ig.:o. 1.203 #ig.:o. 1.304 #ig.:o. 1.4

05 #ig.:o. 2.006 #ig.:o. 5.0

P'N*.280>001>11121214162>202427

3170


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LISTOFGRAPHS

S&.N*. G&':,N*.0


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LISTOFTABLES

S&.N*. T' *able:o 2.400 *able:o 2.501 *able:o 3.002 *able:o 3.103 *able:o 3.2

04 *able:o 3.305 *able:o 3.406 *able:o 3.507 *able:o 3.608 *able:o 3.71> *able:o 3.810 *able:o 3.0>11 *able:o 3.0012 *able:o 3.0113 *able:o 3.0214 *able:o 3.03

15 *able:o 3.0421 *able:o 4.022 *able:o 4.123 *able:o 4.224 *able:o 4.325 *able:o 4.426 *able:o 4.527 *able:o 4.628 *able:o 5.0

P'N*.357283>333435363738414243

44464747485>5050515253

5357586>6061636568


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1. INTROUCTION

1.1 C*9 :' P &*;/

"harat forge limited %"#$(, the 'une based multinational isa technology9driven global leaderin

metal forming having trans9continental presence acrossa do?en manufacturing locations, serving

several sectorsincluding automobile, power, oil and gas, rail and marine, aerospace, construction

and mining.

'art of@alyani group9 a .)B 1.4 billion conglomerate with 0>,>>> global work forces."#$

today has the largest repository of metallurgical knowledge in the region and offers complete

service supply capabilities to its geographically dispersed marquee customers from concept to

product design, engineering, manufacturing, testing and validation.

"harat #orge is the largest forging company in the world and one of the most technologically


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1

made a majorbreakthrough in china in 1>>2 by securing large business from first and second

automotive works, the two leading automobile manufacturersin that country.

It isthe largest manufacturerofthe axle componentsforheavy truckswith a 24Dglobal market

share and a 0>D global share in engine components. *he organi?ation aspires to become B2

"illion Company in the near future by having various organic and non9organic business

expansions. *he businessisso well maintained and spread that a single customerconstitutesnot

more than 7Dof the total turnoverof"harat #orge. An I)- 8>>091>>>, I)-E*) 05838; 1>>1

accredited company, "harat #orge is internationally reputed for its cutting edge technology,

quality processes, and capabilities developed over the years to meet the exact standardsof the

most demanding customersin the world.

"#$ completed capacity expansion to set up dedicated state of art facility for manufacture of

critical and value added componentsfornon9automotive applicationsincluding rail and marine,

-il and


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2

F.1.1


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1.2B,'&' F * & ,+* &

"harat #orge $td. isone ofthe most innovative H exciting companiesto emerge in the history of

the forging industry.

*he Indian Automotive Industry in 4>swasmore like the story ofimported kits. Ancillarieswere

nominal H infrastructure was scarce and inadequate. It was then, that "harat #orge came into

existence in0850 to meet the forging needsofIndian Automotive Industry. *he 6>Cswitnessed a

spurt in the Indian forging industry with more H more unitscoming up. #or"harat #orge, it was

a period of consolidation H growth. ith the largest integration facilities in Asia H an

unbeatable track record, "harat #orge emerged as the undisputed leader the first name in

forgingsindustry in India.

ith an emphasis on diversification, the 7>Cs saw, "harat #orge grew from a primarily

automotive ancillary to an engineering enterprise focusing on technological supremacy,


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3

resilience H total customer orientation. *oday, the art of forging metal is tradition at "harat

#orge, H all of our products are built with the expertise necessary to accommodate various

industries. ach customer specification is carefully transformed into a cost efficient reality.

very part we create isa representation ofouroverall dedication to craftsmanship.

An outstanding reputation for customer service coupled with the management commitment to

quality hasmade "harat #orge the preferred domestic H global supplierformajor-Cs. nder

the intense H caring supervision of the chairman H managing director, r. ". :. @alyani, the

company continuesto expand H itsmarketscontinue to grow, while the goal remainsthe same ;

to delivercompetitive, quality productsH servicestime aftertime.

1.= M'>*& M /+ *+

1?"1 I7*&:*&'*

1?"2 *echnical agreement with )I#C-, )Aforhammerforging technology

1?"" )tart ofhammershop commercial production

1?@2 xecution ofmaiden export orderto million forging facility up9gradation programby commissioning of 05>>> *CsH 5>>> *Cseingarten %>1 accreditation

1??" *echnical agreement with etalart Corporation, apan for small forgings H


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commissioning of 3>>> *Cs H 14>> *Cs mechanical press lines for small

forgings.

1??@-?8 stablishment ofnewmachining facilities forcrankshafts, front axle beamsH

heavy steering knuckles.

1??? =)8>>> accreditation

2000 Implementation of a ) B 2> million facility expansion program by

commissioning of second 05>>> *Cs eingarten %> *Csmechanical presslines.

200= "harat #orge has acquired one of the largest forging companies in


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1.4F * & F ' 7 /+

1.4.1 C/*+55;*&

PRESSSIZE $EIGHTRANGE

(#G)

TYPICALCOMPONENTS

1"%000MT 5>914> I9"eamsH CrankshaftsH

Connecting Gods

12%00MT 5>914> I9"eamsH Crankshafts

10%000MT 7>901> CrankshaftsH I9"eams

8%000MT 1>98> CrankshaftsH I9"eams

"%000MT 1>94> )teering @nuckles,

Crankshafts, Connecting Gods

H $owerControl Arms

%0MT 1>94> Crankshaftsfor'assenger

Cars

%000MT 0>94> Control Arms, )teering

@nuckles, $owerControl

)hoesH *ruck )hoes

4%000MT 491> )teering @nuckles,Crankshafts, Connecting

Gods, )wivel Fubs, @nuckles,

Control Arms, Feavy !uty

'istons, heel Carriers,


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6

pperControl Arms, *rack

)hoesH "rackets

2%00MT 194 Connecting Gods,

*ransmission Components,


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1.4.2 O:5;*&

PRESSSIZE $EIGHTRANGE

(#G)

SECTORS

4%000MT 6> * 'roductsforsectorssuch as

ind nergy, -il H


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8

1.C/ +

"#$ hasvariouskindsofcustomersboth from Automotive and:on9Automotive field.

#ollowing are some ofthe customersof"#$9

Automotive


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F.1.2

9


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:on9Automotive


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10


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1."B&; O& *; B F L

F.1.4

CF! MC! MC! S&7+!

#!0 C!0

#!1 C!1

F#!0 I*!

F#!1 )ales

#!2

#orge )hop !ie )hop

C!:C

C!Chakan


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C!"aramati

aterial

FG #inance

C!#!ngg $egal

'rocessing ''C

Feat *reatment

1


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1

1. FMI(F*&M*5&'*+*I)-

#! I stands for #orge oderni?ation !ivision 0. *he unit was started at "#$

undhwa plant in 0880 and hasbeen in operation eversince. *oday it hasa total of4

presslines. *he linesavailable are '+)90 line %05>>>*(, ')Fline %52>>*(, $@93>>>

line %3>>>*(, $@914>> line %14>>*(and $+ 14>> line %14>>*(. *he jobsforge here

includes Crank )hafts, #ront Axle "eams, and Connecting Gods etc. *he types of

furnacesused here are Gotary Fearth #urnace and Induction #urnace.

2. FMII(F*&M*5&'*+*II)-

#! IIstands for#orge oderni?ation !ivision 1. It hasa total of3 press lines. *he

linesare '+)91 line %05>>>*(, A+ALline %5>>>*(, C-line %4>>>*(, ALIline

%14>>*(. Fere the '+)pressismainly used forforging Axle "eams.

=. FMIII(F*&M*5&'*+*III)-

#!IIIstandsfor#orge oderni?ation !ivision 2. *he unit wasinstalled in 1>>4 andbeing the latest one it hasthe highest level ofautomation. It hasa total of2 presslines.

*he lines are *' 014>> line %014>>*(, *' 7>>> line %7>>>*( and @urimoto line

%44>> *(.

4. F*&S,*:-

#orge )hop is the oldest division of "harat #orge $td. and still is using the old

machinery. *he division hasFammersinstead of'ressesunlike #!s. It forgesvarious

products with weight range of up to 24> kg. It has pneumatic hammers which are

manually controlled. *he lines available here are 14>>0, 14>>1 and 0>*. *he jobs are

handled mechanically using forklifts and :o Automation is done. All the above

hammersare &ertical ovement achinesand the Fori?ontal ovement machinesare

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called psetters. ostly largerjobsare forged here and it dealswith forging ofvarious

metals like )tainless)teel, alloy steels, aluminum and titanium. Feating isdone by oil

fire furnace using lowdensity oil.

. S,*:-

!iesare very important toolsin manufacturing ofmany componentswhich are required

to be produced in large quantities. A!ie isbasically a shape engraved on a large metal

piece which can be used asa model forproduction ofproductsofthat particularshape.

*he dies used for forgings are made here. Automatic cutting machine tools like C:C

$athe, F)%Figh )peed achine(, !%lectron !ischarge achining(etc. are used

forproduction ofthe requireddie. *he diesare made in 1 typesofmachines, traditional

and imported which are both computeri?ed. Atraditional machine operatesat 2>>> rpm

so it is kept open. Imported machinesoperates in a chamber as the operating speed is

7>>>9 07>>> rpm. -ne more advantage of imported machines is that they got tool

changerand all the toolsrequired forthe complete processcan be loaded in one go. *he

design specificationsare givenby the engineering division. Afterthe final craving ofthe

shape on the metal block is done the process of:itriding is performed in the Feat

*reatment !epartment. Afterwards it is sent for inspection. -nce the validity of theproduct isconfirmed the !ie issent to the !ie )torage yard.

". CFE&+-

Isthe backbone ofany manufacturing unit. It isa very important step in production of

any product especially for engineering purpose. *he C!#! department is responsible

forthe designing ofany product asperthe requirement ofthe customers. It usesvarious

modern software like 'ro9, CA*IA, A:)M) etc. Customers provide the drawings of

the job and according to that the diesare design.


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@. P&*7++/+-

After the forging is done, processing of the products is required so as to increase the

value ofthe job aswell asthe property. *he 'rocessesinvolved are given below;

a. )hot "lasting; A process of rapidly impacting the surface of an object with

a controlled stream of abrasive, shot material to prepare the surface to

meet specifications.

b. Cold )traightening %'adding(; *o remove bends and to straighten the job.

agnetic 'article Inspection; *o remove surface cracksCoining; It isa form of

precision stamping in which the job is subjected to a sufficiently high stress to

induce plastic flow on the surface of the material but retains toughness and

ductility.

c. #inishing )hot 'eening; to increase fatigue life by bombarding the surface ofthe

part with small spheresofuniform media that induce compressive stresses.

d. &isual Inspections; &isual Inspection isdone to check the final specification.

e. 'ainting; !ip or)pray

*here are 2 processing linesat "harat #orge, namely;9

a. I=C %-ld line(; &alve "ody %-il field(, "ig Connecting Gods, *ubes, C)-

%Crank )haft old(are processed here. Axle "eamsare processed here alsobut the

capacityEoutput comesunderthat ofA1 line.

b. A1 $ine; *he lineshere are Axle "eam, #ord line, A1 line small, FF'A1 line,

Crank )haft new, $C&"eam

c. #!2 line; All the jobsforged in #!2 are processed here.


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8. H'T&'9-

Feat *reatment is a group of industrial and metal working processes used to alter the

physical and chemical propertiesofthe material. It changesthe propertiesof the forged

part being treated by affecting the si?e and alignment of the crystalline structure of the

elements in the steel or carbon alloy. It involves the following factors; Feating,

temperature control, atmosphere control and controlled cooling. *ray time is the time

taken of one tray with job to feed from one end and to come out of the furnace at the

otherend asheat treated. *he furnacesused are "ogie Fearth furnacesaswell asbatch

and variouscontinuousfurnace lines.

'rocessesemployed in Feat *reatment are9

a. 'reheating and soaking; 'reheating is done in Induction "illet #urnace, -il9#ire

#urnace and $'oC to obtain the requisite

mechanical properties. It isaccomplished by a controlled reheating ofthe work piece

to a temperature belowitslowercritical temperature. It isdone in $'


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?. MC(M'//6&7'/6'/C*&*/)-

It isinvolved in rawmaterial injection and clearance. )ervice failure analysisisdone to

find out and eradicate the failure and its cause permanently. etallurgical testingof a

job forparameters like hardness, brittleness, ultimate tensile strength etc. isdone here.

-nly if the material is tested successfully forall parametersasper the requirementsof

the customers, it isgiven to the customer.

10.MCI(M'7,C*9:*+*I)-

achining ofthe forged jobsisdone here to the requisite dimensionsand tolerances. It

has00 crankshaft lines. 'roductsare finished using machining processes like rounding,

flangside drilling, oil hole drilling, deburring, grinding, turning, facing, centering,

chamfering etc. by using C:CCs.

11.MCII(M'7,C*9:*+*II)-

*his division is more modern than C! I and hence has higher automation. Figher

automation resultsin enhanced fatigue resistance ofthe product being forged alongwith

improved balancing which is taken care by magnetic particle inspection. C! 1

compared to C!0 handlesproductsofgreaterdimensionsand capacity. *here are 5

linesin it ofwhich, 3 are crank shaftsline, 0 for#ront Axle line and 0 forknuckle line.

achined partsare for0>> Dexport.

12.HFI(H'F*&+*I)-

*he press was installed in 0874 and the maximum capacity press here is of 05>> *

capacity. It hasan -pen die forging process. *he processhere issemi9automatic and in

thisdivision the heat treatment section isalso within it. *he jobsmainly forged here are


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ell9equipped dispensary with necessary facilities.

A13hourready fire extinguishervan.

1".M'&'/+-

*he aterial department takes care of all the international and domestic purchases. It

hasbroadly six departments, namely


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3. *hen the material is sent for forging to different shop floors, after forging once again

propertiesare checked by =C . the materialswhich are not accepted by the =C are

sent back.

4. #ewpartsrequire heat treatment and feware sent directly forprocessing, asfewpartsare

micro alloyed steel they wont require heat treatment.

5. Afterprocessing partsare send to C!ifmachining isrequired while othersare directly

send forshipment and finally to the customers.

6. All the material which iscollected asscrap issend to @alyani Carpentry.


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F.1.

20


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1.8S:+ F * &

1. Cut "illet; A semi9finishedO coggedO hotNrolledO or continuousNcast metal product of

uniform sectionOusually rectangularwith rounded corners.

2. Feating; Feating ofthe billetsin the furnacesup to the forging temperatures.

3. Geducer Goll; A machine situated alongside the forging machine for preNforming.

*he operation is carried out by passing the workNpiece between contraNrotating shaftsO

which carry appropriately shaped dies.

4. #latteningE"ending if required; A preliminary forging operation to give the

piece approximately the correct shape forsubsequent forming.

5. "uster%rougher(; An impression employed in a die when considerable metal movement

isrequired and which precedesa blockercavity and a finishercavity.

6. "locker; *he forging die impression which gives the forging its general shapeO but

omits any details that might restrict the metal flow/ corners are well rounded. *he

primary purpose of the blocker is to enable the forming of shapes too complex to befinished after the preliminary operations/ it also reduces die wear in the finishing

impression.

7. #inisher; *he die impression that impartsthe final shape to a forged part.

8. *rimming; *he removal offlash orexcessmetal from a hot part %such asa forging(in a

trimming press.

9. 'adding; In case small misalignment may be there in the job, correction or

straightening isdone here in padding.

10.Controlled Cooling E Feat treatment; A sequence of controlled heating and

cooling operationsapplied to the solid metal to impart desired properties


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1.?P & *567+ *; B,'&' F * &

*he productsof"harat #orge can be classified into two types;

1.?.1 C/*+55;*&+

Crankshaft

Axle beam

)teering @nuckle

Connecting God

GockerArm

*ransmission 'arts Fubs

-il H


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23


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1.?.2 O:F*&

*he open die forging division of"harat #orge manufacturesproductsforthe following sectors;

)ugarIndustry

Cement Industry

)teel 'lants


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2. LITERATUREREDIE$

2.1 P & *567* :/' ' 5 7*&*/

''C department isa very crucial and critical department in every industry since thisdepartment

decidesupon howthe production would be carried out. It takesthe demand plan from the )ales

department and based upon the requirement, it decidesupon the production plan. It coordinates

with the materialsdepartment forthe inventory availability. ''C afterdesigning the production

plan also keepscheck ormonitorswhetherthe whole plan isfollowed properly ornot.

2.1.1 P&7:/*;:&*567*:/''57*&*/

J*he highest efficiency in production is obtained by manufacturing the required quantity ofproduct, ofthe required quality, at the required time by the best and cheapest methodK9''C isa

tool to coordinate all manufacturing activitiesin a production system.

'roduction planning and control essentially consistsofplanning production in a manufacturing

organi?ation before actual productionactivities start and exercising control activities to ensure

that the planned production isreali?ed in termsofquality, quantity, delivery schedule and cost of

production.

-bjective of a production planning is to provide a physical system together with a set of

operating guidelinesforefficient conversion ofrawmaterials, human skillsand otherinputsinto

finished products.

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2.1.2 F67*+*;PPC

F.2.1

2.1.= P/'BFL

Analysisof)trategic "usiness'lans and setting ofgoals and objectives in consultation


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)ynchroni?ation ofC!production requirementswith forge divisionCsplans.

'reparation ofdaily dispatch and receipt plan in coordination with processing shops.

2.1.4 C*&*//BFL

Coordination ofinputslike diesand rawmaterial to achieve production plans.

ork orderprocessing.

Control overthe issue ofcut material to -#!.

Coordination with shipping department fordelivery offorgingsto customer

Coordination offeeding forgingsto C!

!isposition and accounting ofscrap

)ub9contracting activitieslike selection and assessment ofsub9contractors.

Geviewquarterly E monthly performance against goalsand objectives.

2.1. O7+*;PPC

-ptimum utili?ation ofcapacity

Inventory control

conomy in production time

nsure quality

ffective utili?ation ofresources


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0. =uality9

=uality department informs''C department about the numberofaccepted and rejected

materials.

Inspection department provides immediate feedback on rejected quantity and

quality ofitemsthat isreworkable.

=uality control department must give feedback about quality of incoming raw

material immediately. If incoming raw material is poor, immediate feedback

avoidsfurtherprocessing on defective rawmaterials.

rrorsin dimension observed by shop inspection must be communicated to ''C

immediately.


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F.2.=

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4. !ie shop9

''C informs the die shop that howmany dies are required permonth and their

specification.

''C requires the information about dies like die run si?e, die life etc during

planning.

:ewdie development information isgiven to the die shop by the ''C according

to customerCsrequirement.

5. C!9

In machine component divisionmachining ofdifferent componentsisdone.

''C department sendspartsformachining to C!0 and C!1.

achining ofauto componentsisdone in C!0, and machining ofcrankshaft is

done only in C!1.

C!department coveys to ''C about howmany partsare machined and ready

forshipping and howmany partsare needed to be processed again orwhat isthe

rejection rate.

2.2 C':'7 :/'

Capacity in general isthe maximum production rate ofa facility ora firm. It isusually expressed

in volume ofoutput perperiod of time. Capacity indicatesability of a firm to meet customers

demand. -perationsmanagerare concerned with capacity because;

*hey want sufficient capacity to meet the customersdemand in time.

Capacity affectscost efficiencyofoperations, the ease ordifficulty ofscheduling output

and the cost ofmaintaining the capacity.

Capacity requiresan investment ofcapital.

.


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the organi?ation achieve the optimum capacity levels to meet the customer demand. Capacity

decisionsare important because they impact9

Ability to meet future demands

Affectsoperating costs

ajordeterminant ofinitial costs

Involveslong9term commitment

Affectscompetitiveness

Affectsease ofmanagement


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2.=.1 I9:*&':'&'9&+*;:&+++'5,'99&+

) eight range9

) Available capacity %:o.Emonth(

)Average cycle time ofjobs%sec(

) )et up time required %hrs.(

PZS:&+++ $,

&'(3)

A'/'* 14>>>915>>> 4> 0.4 54D

PZS2 5>905> 2>>>> 42 0.14 55D

TMP8000 2598> 2>>>> 27 1 47D

TMP1200 4>90>> 2>>>>921>>> 27 1 54D

T$P10000 24978 11>>> 3> 1 44D

T'>>E year

'+)IIcapacity; 25>>>> E year

*'014>>capacity; 25>>>>E year

*'7>>> capacity; 273>>>E year

*'0>>>>capacity; 153>>> E year

)o *otal Capacity of'+)group; 057>>>>E year

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=.EMANEDALUATION

=.1 F *& 7 '+

#orecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes

%typically(have not yet been observed. It isthe use ofhistoric data to determine the direction

offuture trends. #orecasting isused by companiesto determine howto allocate theirbudgets

foran upcoming period oftime.

*he firm must plan for the future. 'lanning for the future involves forecasting. :o

businessman can afford to ignore forecasting ifhe wantsto thrive and prosperin hisbusiness.

*he firm has to forecast the future level of demand for itsproduct underdifferent possible

circumstances/ such as prices, competition, promotional activities and general economic

activity. )imilarly forecasting will be necessary with reference to costs under changing

conditionsofavailability of rawmaterialsand theirrespective prices, changing technology,

wage rates, labourtraining and capital acquisition programs. #orecasting doesplay a key role

in managerial decisions and hence forecasting is emphasi?ed in the study of managerial

economics. *he objective of business forecasting is to minimi?e risk and the margin of

uncertainty in business

=.1.1 F*&7'+9,*5+

*here are, as such, two approaches to demand forecasting. #irst is to obtain information

about the intentions of the spenders through collecting expertsQ opinion or by conducting

interviewswith the consumers. )econd is to use past experience as the guide and using or

projecting the past statistical relationshipsto obtain the expected level offuture demand. *he

first method isalso considered to be qualitative and ismostly used forshort9term forecasting/

whereas the second method is quantitative and is used for long9term forecasting. e can

forecast the demand forexisting product by using any one oreven mix ofthe above methods,

but to forecast demand fornewproduct we have to use survey method only because the new

product hasno past orhistorical data to offer.

41


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intermediate9long range decisions. xamples of qualitative forecasting methods are; informed

opinion and judgment, the !elphi method etc.

b. =uantitative

=uantitative forecasting modelsare used to estimate future demandsasa function ofpast data/

appropriate when past data are available. *he method is usually applied to short9intermediaterange decisions. xamplesofquantitative forecasting methodsare; simple and weighted moving

averages, simple exponential smoothing, smoothing with seasonal index, least square method

%*rend(.

#orecasting the demand

e have currently the demand of2 yearsi.e. 1>01902, 1>02903 and 1>03904. "y using the data,

we can forecast the demand ofyear1>04905. Ifwe get the forecast ofthe demand, then we will

have some knowledge on what pattern it is increasing and demand of which part ordieswill

42


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se following stepsto determine TaCand TbC

i( #ind time deviation %x(from certain period foreach period and then find out sum oftime

deviation %Ux(.

ii( )quare each time deviation and ad all squared valuesto get Ux.x.

iii(ultiply time deviation ofeach period %x(with corresponding actual salesfortheperiod

%y(and then add all figuresto get Uxy.

iv(Calculate valuesofTaCand TbCfrom following method.

At UxR>, equation %1(and %2(will become

UyRna999%3(

UxyRbUx.x9999%4(

*he above two equationscan be arranged as;

aRUy E n, bRUxy EUx.x

#orexample we have the following data,

M*, '**;:&*5

;&*9()A:&/

S6'&*;

5'*

P&*567*;'5

..

an. 92 8 90,21,866

#eb. 91 3 978,23>

ar. 90 0 937,56>

Apr. > > >

ay. 0 0 36,56>

44


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un. 1 3 0,00.35>

ul. 2 8 0,53,8>3

@ UxR> Ux.xR17 UxyR42>32

T'32 E 17

R0783

yR37,721S0783xVV. %A(

*rend values;

M*, T&5*;

an. 92 32,04>

#eb. 91 34,>33

ar. 90 35,827

Apr. > 37,721

ay. 0 4>,615

un. 1 41,51>

ul. 2 43,403

T'


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=.29'5 :'&

=.2.1 C6+*9&+

*here are around 00> different customers in total from all the groups. "elow are few of the

customers with their demand pattern who come under '+) group. Fere we have studied the

demand ofdifferent customers, by doing thiswe will knowwho ourregularcustomerisandwho

isordering from uson regularbases, and whose demand isincreasing.

T'


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46


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CUSTOMERWISE70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

2000

0

10000

0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

AL(ENNOR

E)KOEL

ESSEN

SPARES

G&':,N*.=.1

"y thisgraph we can see that A$%:C-G(hasthe highest demand in comparison to others, sowe can provide bettercustomersatisfaction to them so that they continue using "#$ products.

=.2.2 P'&+

*here are around 25 different partsin total, we have listed fewpartsthat are forged under '+)

group ofpresses. "y studying thisdemand pattern we can understand which part hasthe highest

demand and higherincreasing trend.

Q!


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T'


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700000

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

P+S

,/

LK$

2500

PS%,

K/

LK$4000

G&':,N*.=.=

#rom the graph we can see that '+) group has the highest demand compared to others.

*herefore we should focusmore on '+)group and try to meet the customerCsrequirement.

=.=F *& 7 '+ ;*& PZS &* 6:

Asseen in the earliergraph '+)group hasthe highest demand, we have forecasted demand for

'+)using trend line forecasting.

de

a

d


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T'


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PZSGROUP400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

!8383.3

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016

P+S,ROP

Lea(P+S,ROP)

G&':,N*.=.4

*hismethod givesusthe equation ofthe linearforecast trend line, by which we can calculate the

succeeding yearsdemand.

In the above graph the best fit line showsthat the demand iscontinuously increasing.

Q!


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T'0391>04 isgiven below.

52


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53


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4.2E'/6' + 7':'7 '5 5; ': +

!esign capacity R 25>>W13W2> E average cycle time

P&+++65&PZS&*6: C':'79*,

PZS1 41786

PZS2 37>>>

$EGEPRESS 55350

1200TMP 5710>

8000TMP 537>>

*-*A$ R 41786S37>>>S55350S537>>

R 2>>257 E month

R25>3305 E year

ffective capacity R 057>>>>E year

4.2.1 M*,/7':'7:/'*;PZS&*6:*+65':

-n the basisofdemand detailsmonthly capacity planning isdone.

''C decideshowmuch quantity to be forged on which die number.

*hen this information is given to the shop floorwhere cycle time, up time, numberof

setupsiscalculated.

After actual production, the difference between the required production and actual

production iscalculated which givesexcessEshort fall.

tili?ation ofthe pressiscalculated and measuresare taken to improve the utili?ation.


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FEB. MAR. APR. MAY

SET-UP 15 20 14 04

CYCLETIME 37 41 38 37

O$NTIME 237.1 317 234.65 112

TRIALS 9 9 9 9

UTILISATION 47 D 52 D 41 D 53 D

T'


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35000

30000

25000

20000

EPE&E*

15000 A&%E'E*

10000

5000

0:AN. "E#. $AR. APR. $A;

G&':,N*.4.4

In the month ofmarch there isa huge variance in the expected and achieved production, thismay

be due to the no. ofsetupsin march ismore ascompared to othermonths, the down time hasalso

increased from #ebruary to march and also the machine utili?ation hasreduced in the month of

march leading to lessproduction.

FEB. MAR. APR.

SET-UP 6 15 15

CYCLETIME 30.21 27.72 31.>5

O$NTIME 76.11 174 175

TRIALS 9 9 9

UTILISATION 5>.46 D 36.4 D 47.70 D

T'


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April it hasreduced. *he down time, cycle time and numberofsetupshave also increasedafter

#eb. leadingto reduction in production.

FEB. MAR. APR.

SET-UP 6 08 1>

CYCLETIME 31 32 32

O$NTIME 85.83 16>.03 181.36

TRIALS 9 9 9

UTILISATION 56 D 36 D 40 D

T'>7 0>4423

PZS2 42051 52745$EGEPRESS 6>>58 65570

1200TMP 58310 31028

8000TMP 76885 47063

T'


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120000

100000

80000

60000 &APA&;

*E$AN*40000

20000

0

P+S1 P+S2

E*,E 12500$P 8000$PPRESS

G&':,N*.4."

Fere we can see that at '+), '+)1 and wedge pressthe demand ismore than the effective

capacity whereasat 014>> *'and 7>>> *'the capacity ismore than the demand.

#uture planning should be done in such a way that the increasing demand should be met

and the presseshaving highercapacity should be utili?ed in best possible way.

4.=P /' ;*& ;66&

1. B'/'77':'7'559'5!

If there isan imbalance in the demand and the capacity in the short term then it can be

tackled by temporary measures E adjustmentssuch as increasing E decreasing the labour

force or creating and carrying inventory in the lean period to be used up in the peak


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demand period.

65


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4. R567,69


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67


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4 8.11 2.20 3.>7

'*I A* AC*A$ CMC$ *I 286.54 162.2 280.15 271.42

=I':* A&AI$A"I$I*M 51.28 45.2 50.02 50.66

*-*A$ 'G-!C*I-: 18,04>.>> 07,408.>> 14,128.>> 13,425.>>

-@'G-!C*I-: 16,713.>> 06,576.>> 11,25>.>> 12,316.>>

:-* -@'G-!C*I-: 0,215.>> 721 1,768.>> 0,0>8.>>

=A$I*MGA* 84.34 84.40 77.48 84.37

AC*A$ CMC$ *I 38.00 42.02 44.70 45.02

'$A::!CMC$ *I 43.27 46.80 48.18 50.10

'G#-GA:C ##ICI:CM 00>.63 0>7.88 0>5.12 0>8.>5

-&G A$$ ='* ##C*I&:)) 54.84 47.50 46.42 53.21

T'.51 53.57 015.73 18.41 54.37

##C*I& G:F-G) 567.>4 48>.37 46>.55 545.37 52>.41

!-:9*I 167.>3 117.10 110.06 158.70 137.38!I)%Frs.( 021.57 80.26 74.5 003.18 0>>.06

!I)D 08.46 04.36 04 06.30 04.78

-'G Frs. 74.25 56.76 51.75 73.06 70.38

-'G D 01.48 00.38 00.>1 01.71 01.81

='* Frs. 46.76 36.43 40.>4 5>.25 44.55

='* D 7.43 7.>4 7.84 8.08 7.72

.88 00.06

.20 2.52 2.7 0.56 0.66

'*I A* AC*A$ CMC$ 3>>.>0 251.16 238.38 275.56 271.>2

=I':* A&AI$A"I$I*M 47.88 50.24 50.13 47.8 5>.48

*-*A$ 'G-!C*I-: 15,128.>> 13,474.> 12,1>7.> 13,675.> 13,701.>

-@'G-!C*I-: 14,34>.>> 12,768.> 1>,184.> 13,>>5.> 13,>11.>>

:-* -@'G-!C*I-: 678 6>5 1,802.>> 67> 68>

=A$I*MGA* 85.88 86.02 76.34 85.74 85.71

69


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3. *'014>>9

PARAMETER JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

G:9F-G) 534 472 537 48> 455"GA@) E '$A::!)F*!-:

61.67 7>.17 032.>3 25.20 35.01

##C*I& G:F-G) 461.11 4>1.61 4>3.85 442.58 408.77

!-:9*I 147.40 1>7.12 135.08 144.14 178.33

!I)%Frs.( 74.54 64.75 64.8 74.08 58.75

!I)D 03.86 04.>8 04.>2 04.28 02.33

-'G %Frs.( 64.06 56.77 67.18 0>0.33 61.18

-'G D 02.03 02.4 04.4 07.21 02.80

='* %Frs.( 50.27 17.8 68.>7 36.54 87.04

='* D 0>.62 4.64 04.55 7.50 07.77

.86 38.03

7 1.45 2.68 8.34

'*I A* AC*A$ CMC$*I

202.60 183.38 147.66 187.33 12>.33

=I':* A&AI$A"I$I*M 43.71 47.47 40.14 42.8 33.22

*-*A$ 'G-!C*I-: 18,38>.>> 15,5>7 12,651 15,201 1>,478

-@'G-!C*I-: 17,575.>> 14,847 11,631 14,514 08,788.>>

:-* -@'G-!C*I-: 7>3 54> 0,>1>.>> 576 58>

=A$I*MGA* 86.16 86.45 84.60 86.28 85.54

AC*A$ CMC$ *I 27.2 28.73 28.1 3>.72 3>.18

'$A::!CMC$ *I 27.41 28.73 28.1 3>.71 3>.1

'G#-GA:C ##ICI:CM 0>>.47 88.88 0>> 88.87 88.67

- 42.53 46.03 38.>4 41.37 31.64T'


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71

4. edge press9

PARAMETER JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

G:9F-G) 418 276.4 324.4 3>6 385.4

"GA@) E '$A::!)F*!-:

106.10 63.73 82.83 66.20 38.62

##C*I& G:F-G) 200.68 201.55 230.45 218.58 335.62

!-:9*I 040.36 042.08 058.51 067.75 122.>6

!I)%Frs.( 42.44 22.66 24.4 42.14 66.>3

!I)D 06.07 0>.7 0>.28 05.04 06.13

-'G %Frs.( 41.25 27 32.40 30.55 70.60

-'G D 05.68 01.04 01.60 01.53 07.18

='* %Frs.( 21.66 15.47 15.2 13.10 20.06

='* D 0>.40 7.4 6.6 6.23 5.87


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-ne ofthe main factorsaffecting - isavailability/ availability can be increased by reducing

the downtime. ainly there are 3 typesofdowntime they are due to;

-peration

!ies

quipment


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73

'+)lubrication countdown.

#EC 2rd ?one temperature not increasing

I&. !owntime due to general

'lanned shutdown.

)cale pit problem

*rial production.

)E!9!escaler$eakage.

)E!9#urnace.

Geduce roll trials

"ackup diesnot available

.2P '&* 7,'& ;*& 9'>*& 5* 9+

e can use pareto analysisto identify the top portion ofcausesthat need to be addressed to

resolve the majority ofproblems, the idea that by doing 1>Dofthe work you can generate

7>D of the benefit of doing the entire job. If we take '+) 1 press line and study all the

reasonsfordowntime, forthe month ofanuary, #ebruary, march, April and ay. In '+)1

the majordowntime occursdue to diesand then operations.

0. !ue to operation downtime9

S&.N*. R'+*+ F&67 C696/'

F&67

P&7'

1 )etup Actual 63 63 50

2 Feat )ymbol Changes 11 85 68

= ismatch Correction 07 003 83

4 !ouble loading 1 005 84

=uality Checking 1 007 86

" !ropout reprocessing 1 01> 88


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74


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@ '+)bottom cassette not

declamping

0 010 0>>

*otal 010

T'> partsbut the run si?e

is04>> then we should forge 04>> partsat a time so that the rest could be used in the next

month and be kept asI'. *hiswill reduce the time required fordie change.

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1. !ue to diesN

S&.N*. R'+*+ F&67 C696/'

F&67

P&7'

1 '+)die grinding 23 23 37

2 Correction 0> 33 51

= !ie crack matching 6 40 61

4 "utting block crackEchangeE

bulge

4 45 7>

Insert not available 3 5> 74

" padding diesgrinding 3 53 80

@ Insert change 2 56 84

8 "lowholesweld E repair 2 6> 0>>

*otal 6>

T'


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G&':,N*..2

76


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".SUGGESTIONS

e have seen that the demand has been increasing and mostly the demand ofpartswhich are

generally forged in presses of '+) group is increasing. )o, we have to focus on how we can

increase the Capacity ofthe group.

#or increasing the current capacity utili?ation, we have to look into 1 things9Cycle time and

-. Among the - factors, Availability is the most important one in "#$. *o increase the

Availability, we have to reduce the downtime ofmachine. Also to increase capacity, we have to

try and decrease ourcycle time.

e can decrease the cycle time by;

Continuousimprovement ofthe way to do variousoperations.

Continuousimplementation of4).

Changesin the production line.

Installation ofmore efficient supporting machines.

!owntime occursmainly due to !ie failure, !ie wear, -il $eakage, ismatch etc.

*hiscan be checked by

sing betterquality die materials.

"etterdesign ofdies.

Gegularpreventive maintenance ofthe machines.

e have prepared a checklist table forthe preventive maintenance which can be done daily orat

the start of every shift. As we know 'reventive aintenance is much better than "reakdown

maintenance and iscost effective also, we should dedicate some time for the inspectionsevery

day before the start ofeach shift.


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.1C, 73/+ *; , P & 9' '7

S/.

N*.

C,73/+9 R9'&3+

1 Check hydraulic linesand fitting forleaks.

2 Check the oil level and ifnecessary top it off.

= nsure oil cleanliness.

4 Check the oil temperature.

Check for loose bolts around the tooling area and

fasten it.

" Check lubrication on guided platens.

@ Check the ram whetherit ismoist but not dripping oil.

8 Check forwearand tearin the die.

? Check forcracksin the die.

10 Check all lightsand alarmsforproperfunctioning.

11 Inspect all safety coversand connections.

12 Gecord pressdata.

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Adding equipment andEorpersonnel.

1. Geduce load by;

)ometimes, there is a huge load on a certain press line but that press line may not be

capable ofhandling that load sowe can;

Geducing lot si?es.

Folding work in production control.

)ubcontracting work to outside suppliers.

2. Geduce capacity by;

In fewcaseslike *'7>>> and 014>> where the capacity ismore than demand here we

can adjust capacity by;

*emporarily reassigning staff.

Geducing the numberofshifts.

liminating shifts.

3. Increase load by;

*he presseslike *'7>>> and*'014>> which are having more capacity but the load

given isless, we can utili?e the capacity by;

Geleasing ordersearly.

Increasing lot si?es.

aking itemsnormally outsourced.


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.=C':'7 :/' +&' +

*here are mainly 2 capacity planning strategies;

1. L'5 +&' is adding capacity in anticipation of an increase in demand. It is an

aggressive strategy and used to lure customers away from competitors. *he possible

disadvantage is that it is often results in excess inventory, which is costly and often

wasteful.

F.".1

2. L' +&' is a conservative strategy/ here capacity is increased after demand hasincreased. It decreasesthe risk ofwastage but may result in lossofcustomer.

=. M'7,+&'isadding capacity in small amountsin response to changing demand in

the market. It isalso known astracking strategy.

S6+5+&'9Iwould suggest match strategy asit will not affect the company ifa

sectorsuffersglobal downturn.

81


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@.REFERENCES

0. www.bharatforge .com

1. www.oee.com

2. www.forging.org

3. www.teamquest.com

4. Fandbook ofIndustrial ngineering; *echnology and -perationsanagement, *hird

dition

5. www.slideshare.netEaarish8585Ecapacity9planning

6. www.wikipedia.orgEwikiECapacityXplanning

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