Scenario Planning:the PolyU Library

experience

February 2009February 2009

Steve O’ConnorUniversity Librarian

Scenario Planning:

“Information is the currency of democracy”

Thomas Jefferson

February 2009February 2009

Creating the FutureCreating the Future

Our Goal in life

“I am enough of an artist to draw

freely on my imagination.

Imagination is more important than

knowledge.

Knowledge is limited.

Imagination encircles the world”

Albert Einstein

Future Thinking

What it is not…Strategic planning

…Only thinking about what to do tomorrow

How not to change … Cling to present views of ‘our’ world

… Not being able to conceive of other ways of doing

… Wait for others outside our environment to tell us what to do; to reduce budget ; to force change of direction; to become less relevant

“There are an infinite number of stories about the future; our

purpose is to tell those that matter”

Lawrence Wilkinson

Tunnel Vision

• Light at the end of the tunnel• Vision gets narrower• Open it up ?• Think ‘outside the box’• There are no sacred cows !• Change is the only constant

in our lives!

INSERT BINOCULARS

The Future is not linear….ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

NOW

DECISION POINTS

SCENARIO PATH

OPTIONS

Observations

• PolyU was trying to create three futures from which to choose

• Engaged in input from all library staff, UG and PG students, Expert Teachers, and Expert Researchers

• PolyU created the Preferred Library Scenario through a Workshop which a wide range of the PolyU community

• The PLS was then the target for our Strategic Planning 2009-2012

PolyU Library has sought

to create its own future

rather than

accepting

the future created for it.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Period

Use

Normal Life Cycle 一般的生命周期

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Period

Use

Life Cycle with Spikes 跳跃的生命周期

Life Cycle with Long Tail 长尾巴的生命周期

Growth of Digital… 增长的数字化资源

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Web

Digital

Print

What is YOUR prediction for

–Web? %

–Digital? %

–Print? %

Think about it !!

Observations

• It is critical to use all sources of information to predict your own library future

• What will be the mix of budget, materials, print/digital, local/remote users, and so on

• All of this markets a Library which is seen as Forward Looking and Thoughtful !!

Strategic Thinking

Future Focus

Strong

Weak

Weak Strong

Mindless Action

Futures Trap

Paradigm challengingstrategies

Within paradigmstrategies

Independent libraries

Networked libraries

Observations

• Our staff all need to be involved as each has much to contribute

• Our management behaviours in a collaborative world need to be quite different to those we have displayed in a traditionally hierarchical organisation

• We need to avoid ‘One Speak’ if we to be genuinely innovative and responsive

What will the future labels be for users and libraries?

www.lib.polyu.edu.hkGo to……