Scenario Thinking to SolveComplex Environmental Problems

Talk for ISSS Meeting

Steve CarpenterCenter for Limnology, University of Wisconsin

srcarpen@wisc.edu

Scenario thinking solves complex environmental problems.

Topics:

Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions

Scenarios

Summary, Gaps, Needs

Topics:

Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions

Scenarios

Summary, Gaps, Needs

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2See also Martin Rees, Our Final Century (Europe) or Our Final Hour (U.S.)

Evaluations of World-Ending Disasters:

DisasterDanger Score

(1=low, 10=high)Probability

Terrorism 2 Very High

Viral Pandemic 3 Very High

Radiation from Supernova 4 Once per 150M years

Meteorite Impact 5 Medium

Climate Change 6 High

Super Volcanoes 7 0.15% per Century

Global Nuclear War 8 Low

Telomere Erosion 8 Low

Super-Robots Take Over 8Low (high probability of having the robots)

Earth Swallowed by Black Hole 10 Very Low

Overall chance of humanity making it to 2100: ~ 50:50

1 2 5 10 20

Deviation (Std. Devs.)

1e-2

051e

-162

1e-1

191e

-76

1e-3

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ail

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Distributions

NormalStudent t, 1 dfStudent t, 10 dfStudent t, 30 df

Effect of Knowledge on Probability of Extreme Events

1 2 5 10 20

Deviation (Std. Devs.)

1e-2

051e

-162

1e-1

191e

-76

1e-3

3T

ail

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Distributions

NormalStudent t, 1 dfStudent t, 10 dfStudent t, 30 df

5 10 15 201e

-20

1e

-10

1e

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0

Focus on Student-t TailsP

rob

abili

ty

Deviation

Effect of Knowledge on Probability of Extreme Events

Dry, Windy

Soil erosion

Dust storms

Dust Bowl – North America, 1930s

Cultivation of Marginal Land

Peters, D. P. C., R. A. Pielke, Sr, B. T. Bestelmeyer, C. D. Allen, S. Munson-McGee, and K. M. Havstad. 2004. Cross scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events. Proceedings National Academy Sciences 101:15130-15135.

All Possible Futures

Recognized Uncertainties

Based on Carpenter, Bennett, & Peterson., 2006, Ecology & Society http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/

Unasked Questions

Models & Observations

All Possible Futures

Recognized Uncertainties

Based on Carpenter, Bennett, & Peterson., 2006, Ecology & Society http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/

Unasked Questions

Models & Observations

Imaginable Outcomes

Topics:

Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions

Scenarios

Summary, Gaps, Needs

The World Lots of Perspectives

Carpenter, Folke, Scheffer, Westley, unpublished manuscript

Carpenter, Folke, Scheffer, Westley, unpublished manuscript

Carpenter, Folke, Scheffer, Westley, unpublished manuscript

Salvador Dali, “Still Life Moving Fast”

Sample Perspectives

Clusterthe

Samples

Condense to a few

Scenarios

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessmenthttp://www.MAweb.org

Process for Combining Multiple Models

Cost to replace failing infrastructure in the U.S.: $1.6 trillion

Collapsed bridge, Minnesota, 2007

Topics:

Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions

Scenarios

Summary, Gaps, Needs

Summary

Scenario processes provide:

Playful, inventive thinking about the future

Positive stories

Blunt warnings

Shadow networks

Diverse people thinking together

GAPS

People

Institutions

Structured Processes

Information

Tools

Education

Shadow Networks

Ongoing Assessments of Planetary Life-Support

NEEDS