Scenarios building in complex commons:Challenges, opportunities and lessons learned in engaging multiple stakeholders to improve land use decisions

Bayuni Shantiko & Nining Liswanti

Background

Multiple layers of governance and stakeholders

High uncertainty for the future in complex common in developing tropical countries

The public and decision makers need to be better informed on what could happen in the future

Research Question

What process can allow multiple needs of land taken into account in land use decision

process?

Participatory prospective analysis

An applied foresighting approach developed by CIRAD

PPA group “experts”: district government, local community, customary leaders, private sector, NGOs

Develop action plan to be integrated with regency planning

STAKEHOLDERS

Local government agencies and parliament

National Park Private sectors

Communities Customary leaders Universities and NGO 15 – 20 stakeholders

Define the boundary of the system (Topic)Identify the

variables

Define the variables

Analyze their mutual influences Identify

and select the key variables

Define the states of the variablesScenarios

development Implication

of the scenarios and related actions

The 8 steps of PPA

System Boundary

Q: What could be the future of land use?

Time: 20 years

Geographic boundary:

Kapuas Hulu regency

Central Seram regency

Define the boundary of the system (Topic)

Identify the variables

Define the variables

Analyze their mutual influences

Variables

Economic, social, politic, environment

For example:

• Customary law

• Education

• Income

4. Analysis mutual influence

Direct influence variable i to variable j ;

Direct influence = 1; No influence = 0

Indirect influence (i k) :

i j k

I/D Matrix (Influence/Dependence)

50 INTERNAL VARIABLES

Key drivers: Government policy, use of technology, customary law and wisdom,

mindset, participation, education and skills

Building scenarios process

3

2

4

1

From Scenario to Action

vs

STEPS IN HARMONY PANNING THE GOLD GETTING THE STONE

Policies that favor and compiled together with the community, enhance public participation in the planning process to monitoring and supervision

Access to education and skills are improved

PEOPLE MASTER APPROPRIATE AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY TECHNOLOGY.

Synergy between customary law and positive law supports the course of development

EDUCATION IS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR ALL THE PEOPLE

Indigenous peoples have split as a result of the weakening of customary law and indigenous knowledge

the stakeholders seek to win personal and group interests over the land use

Conflicts in society escalate triggered by the exclusion of the society in the development process

Challenge

Who pays the cost of participation once ongoing donor assistance is over, especially for future monitoring of the implementation?

How to institutionalize the process into current government system?

Idealistic vs. realistic scenarios?

Conclusion

The PPA process proved successful in bringing together different stakeholders to view their environment from a very different perspective.

Using PPA and its scenario development, different stakeholders started realizing the need of working together, to collaborate for further action to make change affecting their future

Thank you

Arigato Contact:b.shantiko@cgiar.orgn.liswanti@cgiar.org