Scenarios for south africa

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Scenarios for South AfricaMaking the impossible happen

Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

THE STRATEGIC FORUM

A place of assembly for strategic conversations

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

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STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly

for strategic conversations

THESTRATEGIC FORUM

SCENARIOS FORSOUTH AFRICA

2015 - 2020

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

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Pretoria will provide and other

myths

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAwww.strategicforum.co.za

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Political transformation

Econ

omic

tran

sfor

mat

ion

UbuntuSouth Africa united

Autocracy

Liberalised autocracy

Democracy

Long walk to FreedomSouth Africa unchanged

1994 Election

1999 Election

Pretoria will provideSouth Africa entitled

Social transformation

Cry the beloved Country

South Africa corrupted

Limited democracy


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Political Transformation

NOW, Muddling

along as we are, or

change . . .

Government intervention,

PPP’s; Subsidies,

Infrastructure

SA Social Capitalism;

Growth through Redistribution;

The Golden Triangle.

SA Social Democracy; Redistribution

with Growth

SA Communism; Redistribution with or without growth

SA – A Third World Country

1. Ubuntu Scenario

2. Long Walk to Freedom

3. Pretoria will Provide

NO

CO

NFI

DEN

CE

L

OW

AV

ERA

GE

H

IGH

CO

NFI

DEN

CE

Ris

k A

void

ance

Ris

k A

vers

ion

Ris

k To

lera

nce

Ris

k Ta

king

Econ

omic

Tra

nsfo

rmat

ion 4. Cry the

Beloved Country

(Based on Gerald Harris: The Art of Quantum Planning: 2009)

Closed System Open SystemParadigm Regression Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm Shift Paradigm ReinventionRacial conflict Racial tension Racial tolerance Racial reconciliation (Ubuntu)

GDP GROWTH> 5 % PA

INFLATION 5 - 8 % PA

EMPL GROWTH> 400 000 PA

GDP GROWTH 3 - 5 % PAINFLATION8 - 10 % PA

EMPL GROWTH150 - 400 000 PA

GDP GROWTH2 - 3 % PAINFLATION

10 - 15 % PAEMPL GROWTH50 - 150 000 PA

GDP GROWTH< 0 % PA

INFLATION15 - 25 % PA

EMPL GROWTH< 50 000 PA

Social Transformation

Drivers of Change and the SA Scenario Mapwww.strategicforum.co.za

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SADriving Forces of Change and Generic Variables that influence Change

POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONEffectiveness of Government Effectiveness of attracting InvestmentAbility to eliminate poverty Local InvestmentShrinking the size of State Bureaucracy (Failure to do so has negative impact) Foreign Direct InvestmentMaintaining a balanced budget Deregulating Capital marketsEliminating and lowering tariffs on imported goods Tourist destinationEliminating Government corruption (Failure to do so has negative impact) Effectiveness of deregulating the Business environmentNational Government (Good policies but poor implementation, thus marginally positive) Removing restrictions on foreign investment (Failure to do so has negative impact)Effectiveness of Civic Society Getting rid of quotas and domestic monopoliesIntegration of Society in the short-term (next one - two years) Privatisation of State owned industries and utilitiesIntegration of Society in the medium-term (next three - five years) Opening industries, Stock and Bond markets to direct foreign ownership and investmentIntegration of Society in the long-term (next six - ten years) Deregulating economy to promote domestic competitionDiversity of Population Effectiveness of Monetary Management of EconomyEffectiveness of Legal System Inflation rate (Low Inflation has positive impact)Judiciary (Good but under attack by Government) Interest Rates (Low Interest Rate has positive impact)Respect for Property Rights (Under threat) Stability of CurrencyLegal system Maintaining low rate of inflation and price stabilityHonest Legal and Regulatory Environment Convertible currencyEffectiveness of Political System Strength of currencyLabour flexibility Effectiveness of Fiscal Management of EconomyLabour Unions (Agenda for selfish interest is negative) Ability to grow the EconomyPolitical Leadership Ability to create EmploymentFlexible Labour market Increasing exportsDemocratic Political System Economic growth (Could be much better)Effectiveness of Private Sector Effectiveness of Private Business SectorSmall, Medium and Micro Enterprises (Encouragement has positive impact) Skills trainingPrivate Sector (Main driver of Growth) ProductivityFinancial Institutions (Of the best in the World and positive impact) Private sector the primary engine for growth (Government must create enabling environment for Private Sector to flourish)Industry Associations (Generally not proactive) Skills Development

Entrepreneurial CultureDiverse, Innovative and efficient Capital MarketsCorporate Sector

DRIVING FORCES OF CHANGE AND GENERIC VARIABLES THAT INFLUENCE CHANGE

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SOCIAL TRANSFORMATIONEffectiveness of the Education systemPrimary and Secondary EducationTertiary EducationMiddle to Senior ManagementTechnical expertiseInformation TechnologyCommunication systemEffectiveness of Cooperation between State, Labour and BusinessAbility to combat AIDS pandemicOpening Banking and Telecommunications systems to private ownership and competitionCooperation between Government, Business and Labour (The golden Triangle) (Major distrust between Public and Private sectors is negative)

Preferential ProcurementEnterprise DevelopmentEffectiveness of creating confidenceAbility to combat CrimeConsumer confidence (Low confidence has negative impact)Peace and Stability (Peaceful transition, succesful democracy but under threat) Business ConfidenceEffectiveness of Provincial and Local GovernmentProvincial GovernmentLocal Government (Poor service delivery. 66/285 are technically insovent)Public Sector (Lack of Service delivery has negative impact)InfrastructureEffectiveness of Economic empowermentAllowing Citizens to choose from array of competing pension optionsRedistribution of Wealth (Important strides made is positive)Equity Ownership (BEE programme successful)Management (slow progress)Employment Equity

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KEY UNCERTAINTIES (Positive = > 4,43; Neutral = > 3,57 & < 4,43; Negative = < 3,57) Average rating*Ability to grow the Economy 3,00Ability to combat Crime 3,00Ability to create Employment 3,00Ability to combat AIDS pandemic 6,00Ability to eliminate poverty 3,50AVERAGE PERFORMANCE ON KEY UNCERTAINTIES 3,70IMPACT OF STRATEGIC ISSUES IN THE COUNTRY (Positive = > 4,43; Neutral = > 3,57 & < 4,43; Negative = < 3,57) Average rating*Inflation rate (Low Inflation has positive impact) 5,00Interest Rates (Low Interest Rate has positive impact) 4,50Local Investment 3,50Foreign Direct Investment 3,00Stability of Currency 2,50Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (Encouragement has positive impact) 4,50Consumer confidence (Low confidence has negative impact) 3,00Skills training 3,50Productivity 3,50Labour flexibility 3,00AVERAGE IMPACT OF STRATEGIC ISSUES 3,60CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS IN THE COUNTRY (The Golden Straitjacket) (Positive = > 4,43; Neutral = > 3,57 & < 4,43; Negative = < 3,57) Average rating*Private sector the primary engine for growth (Government must create enabling environment for Private Sector to flourish)5,50Maintaining low rate of inflation and price stability 3,50Shrinking the size of State Bureaucracy (Failure to do so has negative impact) 2,50Maintaining a balanced budget 5,50Eliminating and lowering tariffs on imported goods 3,00Removing restrictions on foreign investment (Failure to do so has negative impact)3,50Getting rid of quotas and domestic monopolies 5,00Increasing exports 3,00Privatisation of State owned industries and utilities 2,50Deregulating Capital markets 5,00Convertible currency 3,50Opening industries, Stock and Bond markets to direct foreign ownership and investment5,00Deregulating economy to promote domestic competition 4,50Eliminating Government corruption (Failure to do so has negative impact) 2,50Opening Banking and Telecommunications systems to private ownership and competition3,50Allowing Citizens to choose from array of competing pension options 3,50AVERAGE PERFORMANCE ON CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS 3,84

MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE OF SOUTH AFRICA: DEC 2016 STAKEHOLDER POWER AND INTEREST (Positive = > 4,43; Neutral = > 3,57 & < 4,43; Negative = < 3,57) Average rating*National Government (Good policies but poor implementation, thus marginally positive)4,50Provincial Government 3,50Local Government (Poor service delivery. 66/285 are technically insovent) 2,50Public Sector (Lack of Service delivery has negative impact) 3,00Private Sector (Main driver of Growth) 5,00Financial Institutions (Of the best in the World and positive impact) 5,50Judiciary (Good but under attack by Government) 5,00Industry Associations (Generally not proactive) 3,50Primary and Secondary Education 2,50Tertiary Education 3,50Labour Unions (Agenda for selfish interest is negative) 3,50AVERAGE STAKEHOLDER POWER AND INTEREST 3,82STABILITY AND GROWTH (Country's abili ty to compete and win in the world) (Positive = > 4,43; Neutral = > 3,57 & < 4,43; Negative = < 3,57) Average rating*Economic growth (Could be much better) 3,50Peace and Stability (Peaceful transition, succesful democracy but under threat) 5,00Cooperation between Government, Business and Labour (The golden Triangle) (Major distrust between Public and Private sectors is negative)3,50Strength of currency 3,00Respect for Property Rights (Under threat) 3,50Business Confidence 3,50Redistribution of Wealth (Important strides made is positive) 4,50Equity Ownership (BEE programme successful) 5,00Management (slow progress) 3,50Employment Equity 3,50Skills Development 3,50Preferential Procurement 3,00Enterprise Development 3,50AVERAGE PEFORMANCE ON STABILITY AND GROWTH 3,46RATE OF INTEGRATION OF SOCIETY (Positive = > 4,43; Neutral = > 3,57 & < 4,43; Negative = < 3,57) Average rating*Integration of Society in the short-term (next one - two years) 4,50Integration of Society in the medium-term (next three - five years) 5,00Integration of Society in the long-term (next six - ten years) 5,50AVERAGE DEGREE OF INTEGRATION 5,00AVAILABILITY OF KEY CAPABILITIES AND CRITICAL RESOURCES (Positive = > 4,43; Neutral = > 3,57 & < 4,43; Negative = < 3,57)Political Leadership 4,50Middle to Senior Management 3,50Technical expertise 4,50Legal system 5,00Flexible Labour market 3,50Information Technology 5,50Communication system 5,50Entrepreneurial Culture 3,50AVERAGE AVAILABILITY OF KEY CAPABILITIES 4,44Infrastructure 4,50Diverse, Innovative and efficient Capital Markets 5,00Tourist destination 3,50Corporate Sector 5,50Diversity of Population 4,50Honest Legal and Regulatory Environment 4,50Democratic Political System 4,50AVERAGE AVAILABILITY OF CRITICAL RESOURCES 4,57

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SACurrent Reality (as rated by Strategic Forum Subscribers) vs Strategic Forum Scenarios for SA

DRIVING FORCES AND GENERIC VARIABLES INFLUENCING CHANGE

CURRENT REALITY Ubuntu Scenario

Long walk to freedom

Pretoria will provide

Cry the beloved country

POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION 4,28 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Government 3,58 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Civic Society 4,88 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Legal System 4,50 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Political System 3,80 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Private Sector 4,63 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14

SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION 3,76 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14

Effectiveness of the Education system 3,90 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Cooperation between State, Labour and Business 3,90 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of creating confidence 3,63 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Provincial and Local Government 3,38 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Economic empowerment 4,00 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION 3,79 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of attracting Investment 3,75 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of deregulating the Business environment 4,10 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Monetary Management of Economy 3,67 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Fiscal Management of Economy 3,13 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14Effectiveness of Private Business Sector 4,29 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14

AVERAGE INDEX FOR SOUTH AFRICA3,94 5,72 4,86 4,00 3,14

CURRENT REALITY (STRATEGIC FORUM STAKEHOLDERS) VERSUS THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

*Rating of criteria< 1,86 = Extremely low> 1,86 and < 2,71 = Very low> 2,71 and < 3,57 = Fairly low> 3,57 and < 4,43 = Average/Neutral> 4,43 and < 5,29 = Fairly high> 5,29 and < 6,14 = Vey high

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAPerformance of South Africa on Key Uncertainties

3,00

3,00

3,00

6,00

3,50

3,70

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

Ability to grow the Economy

Ability to combat Crime

Ability to create Employment

Ability to combat AIDS pandemic

Ability to eliminate poverty

AVERAGE PERFORMANCE ON KEY UNCERTAINTIES

PERFORMANCE OF SOUTH AFRICA ON KEY UNCERTAINTIES(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 156)

Rating* of KEY UNCERTAINTIES< 1,86 = Extremely low

> 1,86 and < 2,71 = Very low> 2,71 and < 3,57 = Fairly low> 3,57 and < 4,43 = Average

> 4,43 and < 5,29 = Fairly high> 5,29 and < 6,14 = Very high

> 6,14 = Extremely high

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAImpact of Strategic Issues on South Africa

5,00

4,50

3,50

3,00

2,50

4,50

3,00

3,50

3,50

3,00

3,60

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

Inflation rate (Low Inflation has positive impact)

Interest Rates (Low Interest Rate has positive impact)

Local Investment

Foreign Direct Investment

Stability of Currency

Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (Encouragement has positiveimpact)

Consumer confidence (Low confidence has negative impact)

Skills training

Productivity

Labour flexibility

AVERAGE IMPACT OF STRATEGIC ISSUES

IMPACT OF STRATEGIC ISSUES ON SOUTH AFRICA(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 157)

Rating* of IMPACT< 1,86 = Extremely negative

> 1,86 and < 2,71 = Very negative> 2,71 and < 3,57 = Fairly

negative> 3,57 and < 4,43 = Average

> 4,43 and < 5,29 = Fairly positive> 5,29 and < 6,14 = Very positive

> 6,14 = Extremely positive

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© BMI-BSCU

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAAvailability of Key Capabilities on South Africa

4,50

3,50

4,50

5,00

3,50

5,50

5,50

3,50

4,44

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

Political Leadership

Middle to Senior Management

Technical expertise

Legal system

Flexible Labour market

Information Technology

Communication system

Entrepreneurial Culture

AVERAGE AVAILABILITY OF KEY CAPABILITIES

AVAILABILITY OF KEY CAPABILITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 2158)

Rating* of AVAILABILITY< 1,86 = Extremely unavailable

> 1,86 and < 2,71 = Very unavailable> 2,71 and < 3,57 = Fairly unavailable

> 3,57 and < 4,43 = Average> 4,43 and < 5,29 = Fairly available> 5,29 and < 6,14 = Very available

> 6,14 = Extremely available

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAImpact of Stakeholder Power and Interest

4,50

3,50

2,50

3,00

5,00

5,50

5,00

3,50

2,50

3,50

3,50

3,82

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

National Government (Good policies but poor implementation, thusmarginally positive)

Provincial Government

Local Government (Poor service delivery. 66/285 are technicallyinsovent)

Public Sector (Lack of Service delivery has negative impact)

Private Sector (Main driver of Growth)

Financial Institutions (Of the best in the World and positive impact)

Judiciary (Good but under attack by Government)

Industry Associations (Generally not proactive)

Primary and Secondary Education

Tertiary Education

Labour Unions (Agenda for selfish interest is negative)

AVERAGE STAKEHOLDER POWER AND INTEREST

STAKEHOLDER POWER AND INTEREST (IMPACT)(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 159)

Rating* of IMPACT< 1,86 = Extremely low




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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAPerformance on Criteria for Achieving Growth

3,50

5,00

3,50

3,00

3,50

3,50

4,50

5,00

3,50

3,50

3,50

3,00

3,50

3,46

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

Economic growth (Could be much better)

Peace and Stability (Peaceful transition, succesful democracy but under threat)

Cooperation between Government, Business and Labour (The golden Triangle)(Major distrust between Public and Private sectors is negative)

Strength of currency

Respect for Property Rights (Under threat)

Business Confidence

Redistribution of Wealth (Important strides made is positive)

Equity Ownership (BEE programme successful)

Management (slow progress)

Employment Equity

Skills Development

Preferential Procurement

Enterprise Development

AVERAGE PEFORMANCE ON STABILITY AND GROWTH

PERFORMANCE ON CRITERIA FOR ACHIEVING GROWTH Country's ability to Compete and Win in the World

(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 160)

Rating* of CRITERIA< 1,86 = Extremely low




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5.50

3.50

2.50

5.50

3.00

3.50

5.00

3.00

2.50

5.00

3.50

5.00

4.50

2.50

3.50

3.50

3.84

1.00 1.86 2.71 3.57 4.43 5.29 6.14 7.00

Private sector the primary engine for growth (Government must create enabling environment forPrivate Sector to flourish)

Maintaining low rate of inflation and price stability

Shrinking the size of State Bureaucracy (Failure to do so has negative impact)

Maintaining a balanced budget

Eliminating and lowering tariffs on imported goods

Removing restrictions on foreign investment (Failure to do so has negative impact)

Getting rid of quotas and domestic monopolies

Increasing exports

Privatisation of State owned industries and utilities

Deregulating Capital markets

Convertible currency

Opening industries, Stock and Bond markets to direct foreign ownership and investment

Deregulating economy to promote domestic competition

Eliminating Government corruption (Failure to do so has negative impact)

Opening Banking and Telecommunications systems to private ownership and competition

Allowing Citizens to choose from array of competing pension options

AVERAGE PERFORMANCE ON CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

PERFORMANCE OF SOUTH AFRICA ON THE GOLDEN STRAITJACKET(Source: BMI-BRSCU)

Rating* of PERFORMANCE< 1,86 = Extremely low



THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAPerformance of South Africa on the Golden Straitjacket*

* When it comes to the question of which system today is the most effective at generating rising standards of living, the historical debate is over. The answer is free market capitalism. When a country recognises the rules of the free market in today’s global economy, and decides to abide by them, it puts on the Golden Straitjacket. To fit into the Golden Straitjacket a country must either adopt, or be seen to be moving toward, the golden rules. (The Lexus and the Olive Tree:Tom Friedman: 1999, 104)

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SALikelihood of Integration of Soutjh African Society in the Short-, Medium- and Long-term

4,50

5,00

5,50

5,00

1,00

1,86

2,71

3,57

4,43

5,29

6,14

7,00

Integration of Society in theshort-term (next one - two

years)

Integration of Society in themedium-term (next three - five

years)

Integration of Society in thelong-term (next six - ten years)

AVERAGE DEGREE OFINTEGRATION

LIKE

LIHO

OD

OF

SUCC

ESS

LIKELIHOOD OF INTEGRATION OF SOUTH AFRICAN SOCIETYIN THE SHORT-, MEDIUM-, AND LONG-TERM

(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 162)

Rating* of LIKELIHOOD< 1,86 = Extremely low




17 © BMI-BRSCU

BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SACurrent Reality of Political Transformation in South Africa

4,28

3,58

4,88

4,50

3,80

4,63

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

Effectiveness of Government

Effectiveness of Civic Society

Effectiveness of Legal System

Effectiveness of Political System

Effectiveness of Private Sector

CURRENT REALITY OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION IN SOUTH AFRICA(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 163)

Rating* of VARIABLE< 1,86 = Extremely low




SEE EXCELL SPREADSHEET FOR COMPONENTS COMPRISING THE

5 GENERIC POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION VARIABLES THAT INFLUENCE CHANGE, EG. EFFECTIVENESS OF PRIVATE

SECTOR ETC.

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SACurrent Reality of Economic Transformation in South Africa

3,79

3,75

4,10

3,67

3,13

4,29

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

Effectiveness of attracting Investment

Effectiveness of deregulating the Business environment

Effectiveness of Monetary Management of Economy

Effectiveness of Fiscal Management of Economy

Effectiveness of Private Business Sector

CURRENT REALITY OF ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN SOUTH AFRICA(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 164)





SEE EXCELL SPREADSHEET FOR COMPONENTS

COMPRISING THE 5 GENERIC ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION VARIABLES THAT INFLUENCE

CHANGE, EG. EFFECTIVENESS OF PRIVATE BUSINESS

19 © BMI-BRSCU

BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SACurrent Reality of Social Transformation in South Africa

3,76

3,90

3,90

3,63

3,38

4,00

1,00 1,86 2,71 3,57 4,43 5,29 6,14 7,00

SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION

Effectiveness of the Education system

Effectiveness of Cooperation between State, Labour and Business

Effectiveness of creating confidence

Effectiveness of Provincial and Local Government

Effectiveness of Economic empowerment

CURRENT REALITY OF SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION IN SOUTH AFRICA(Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 165)





SEE EXCELL SPREADSHEET FOR COMPONENTS

COMPRISING THE 5 GENERIC SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION

VARIABLES THAT INFLUENCE CHANGE, EG. EFFECTIVENESS

OF ECONOMIC

20 © BMI-BRSCU

BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAThe State of The Nation Experienced

-5%

-10%

-5%

40%

20%

15%

5%

20%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Very MuchWorse (>10%

worse)

Much Worse(5 - 10%worse)

Worse (<5%worse)

About thesame

Better (<5%better)

Much Better (5- 10% better)

Very MuchBetter (>10%

better)

Net Result

PER

CEN

TAG

E O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

(Rep

ortin

g on

con

ditio

ns e

xper

ienc

ed)

THE STATE OF THE NATION EXPERIENCED2014 VERSUS 2013 (Source: BMI-BRSCU; CHART 166)

THE BAR CHART REPRESENTS THE JUDGEMENT OF BMI-BRSCU OF

CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY IN 2014 COMPARED TO 2013

CONDITIONS IN 2014 ESTIMATED TO BE

About the sameTHAN IN 2013;

21 © BMI-BRSCU

BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAOutlook for the State of the Nation

0,00%

-10,00%

-20,00%

40,00%

15,00% 15,00%

0,00% 0,00%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


worse)

Much Worse (5- 10% worse)

Worse (<5%worse)

About thesame

Better (<5%better)



better)

Net Result

PER

CEN

TAG

E (R

espo

nden

ts re

porti

ng o

n ex

pect

ed c

ondi

tions

) OUTLOOK FOR THE STATE OF THE NATION

CALENDER 2015 VERSUS 2014 (Source: BMI-BRSCU; CHART 167)


CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY IN CALENDER 2015 COMPARED TO

CALENDER 2014

CONDITIONS IN CALENDER 2015 ESTIMATED TO BE

About the sameAS CALENDER 2014

22 © BMI-BRSCU

BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAOutlook for the State of the Nation

-15,00%

-10,00%

-5,00%

40,00%

15,00% 15,00%

0,00% 0,00%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


worse)

Much Worse(5 - 10%worse)

Worse (<5%worse)

About thesame

Better (<5%better)



better)

Net Result

PER

CEN

TAG

E O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

(R

epor

ting

on e

xpec

ted

cond

ition

s)OUTLOOK FOR THE STATE OF THE NATION

CALENDER 2016 COMPARED WITH CALENDER 2015 (Source: BMI-BRSCU; CHART 168)

CONDITIONS IN CALENDER 2016 ESTIMATED TO BE

About the sameAS CALENDER 2015


CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY IN CALENDER 2016

COMPARED TO CALENDER 2015

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAMaking Sense of the future of South Africa: Current Reality vs Strategic Forum Scenarios

1,00

1,86

2,71

3,57

4,43

5,29

6,14

7,00POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

Effectiveness of Government

Effectiveness of Civic Society

Effectiveness of Legal System

Effectiveness of Political System

Effectiveness of Private Sector

SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION

Effectiveness of the Educationsystem

Effectiveness of Cooperationbetween State, Labour and Business

Effectiveness of creating confidence

Effectiveness of Provincial and LocalGovernment

Effectiveness of Economicempowerment

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

Effectiveness of attracting Investment

Effectiveness of deregulating theBusiness environment

Effectiveness of MonetaryManagement of Economy

Effectiveness of Fiscal Managementof Economy

Effectiveness of Private BusinessSector

MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE OF THE SOUTH AFRICACURRENT REALITY vs StrategicForum SCENARIOS (Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 169)

CURRENT REALITY (3,94) Long Walk to Freedom Scenario (4,86) Pretoria will provide Scenario (4,00)

Ubuntu Scenario (5,72) Cry the beloved Country Scenario (3,14)

Current Reality (3,94) indicates that South Africa is between the Lower Middle (Pretoria will provide) and the Low Road (Cry the Beloved Country) scenarios.;

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BMi THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAMaking Sense of the future of South Africa: Current Reality vs Strategic Forum Scenarios

1,00

1,86

2,71

3,57

4,43

5,29

6,14

7,00P

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AL

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FOR

MA

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Effe

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Gov

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Effe

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Effe

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MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE OF THE SOUTH AFRICACURRENT REALITY vs Strategic Forum SCENARIOS (Source: BMI-BRSCU; Chart 170)

CURRENT REALITY (3,94) Long Walk to Freedom Scenario (4,86)Pretoria will provide Scenario (4,00) Ubuntu Scenario (5,72)Cry the beloved Country Scenario (3,14)

Current Reality (3,94) indicates that South Africa is between the Lower Middle (Pretoria will provide) and the Low Road (Cry the Beloved Country) scenarios.

25 © BMI-BRSCU

BMi

Mos

t citi

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lose

acc

ess

to fe

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ck

mec

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s

Low Road• State intervention in the economy

undermines investor confidenceand growth. To avoid losing power, the government restricts citizens’ access to feedback mechanisms.

**************************************************South Africans are poor as well as unfree.

Upper Middle Road• The government fails to reform the

economy, which continues to languish. Citizens remove the ruling party from power.

**************************************************South Africans are poor but free.

High Road• Rapid economic deregulation boosts

private investment and economic growth;

• Citizens reward the ruling party at the polls.

*************************************************South Africans are prosperous as well as free.

Lower Middle Road• The state restricts citizens’ access to

feedback mechanisms in order to introduce unpopular economic reforms, such as deregulating the labour market.

**************************************************South Africans are prosperous but also unfree.

Deregulated Market Economy. Driven primarily by private investors

Mos

t citi

zens

hav

e ac

cess

to fe

edba

ck

mec

hani

sms

(Source: Based on A time travelers guide to our next 10 years: Frans Cronje: 2014 )

Heavily regulated economy, directed by the state

KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE SHAPING THE SA SCENARIOwww.strategicforum.co.za

http://www.strategicforum.co.za/

26 © BMI-BRSCU

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Econ

omic

Tra

nsfo

rmat

ion

Political Transformation

GDP GROWTH> 5 % PA

INFLATION 5 - 6 % PA

EMPL GROWTH> 400 000 PA

GDP GROWTH 3 - 5 % PAINFLATION7 - 10 % PA

EMPL GROWTH150 - 400 000 PA

GDP GROWTH2 - 3 % PAINFLATION

11 - 15 % PAEMPL GROWTH50 - 150 000 PA

GDP GROWTH< 0 % PA

INFLATION16 - 25 % PA

EMPL GROWTH< 50 000 PA

NO

CO

NFI

DEN

CE

/ L

OW

/ A

VER

AG

E /

HIG

H C

ON

FID

ENC

ER

isk

Avo

idan

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k A

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ion

Ris

k To

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nce

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k Ta

king

Clo

sed

Syst

em

O

pen

Syst

em

One Party State Multi-Party Democracy

Closed System Open SystemParadigm Regression Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm Shift Paradigm ReinventionRacial conflict Racial tension Racial tolerance Racial reconciliation

April 1994Elections

The PoliticalMiracle

The future of South Africa depends on progress along the three axis of POLITICAL-,

ECONOMIC- , AND SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION.The solution lies in an approach that inextricably links

economic policy, social development and transformation.The UBUNTU scenario requires an entrenched democracy,

a reconciled Nation, united behind a common vision,an open Economic system, the alleviation of povertyand social delivery of housing, health and education.

UBUNTUSouth Africa united

Medium to High growthMedium to Strong Opposition

Entrenched DemocracyNon Racist, Non Sexist,

Reconciled NationLONG WALK TO FREEDOM

South Africa unchangedAverage to Medium growth

Weak to Medium OppositionEspoused Democracy

Tolerant NationPRETORIA WILL PROVIDE

South Africa entitledAverage to Weak growth

Weak to non- existent OppositionShaky Democracy

Tense NationCRY THE BELOVED COUNTRY

South Africa corrupted Weak to Negative growth

One Party StateIgnored Democracy

Divided Nation

Social Transformation


27 © BMI-BRSCU

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RACIAL CONFLICT

CLOSED SYSTEM

RECONCILIATIONAND

NATION BUILDING

OPEN SYSTEM

High RoadUbuntu Scenario

Low RoadCry the Beloved Country Scenario

Lower MiddleRoad

Pretoria will Provide Scenario

Upper Middle Road

Long Walk to Freedom Scenario

10%40%

30% 20%

THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS FOR SAMaking Sense of the future of South Africa: Current Reality vs Strategic Forum Scenarios

Date post:	12-Jan-2017
Category:	Leadership & Management
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Scenarios for south africa

Leadership & Management