Scenarios for the Negotiations on theRevision of the Gothenburg Protocol

with contributions from Imrich Bertok, Jens Borken-Kleefeld, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner

48th Meeting of the Working Group on Strategies and ReviewGeneva, April 11-14, 2011

Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Contents

• Updates of input data

• Target setting

• Emission control costs

• Emission ceilings and implied reduction measures

• Sensitivity cases

• Conclusions

Important changes since the last analyses

Update of NH3 cost information based on material provided by TFRN:

•No measures for small farms (<15 LSU)

•Lower costs for (i) low protein feed, (ii) exhaust air purification (acid scrubbers) and (iii)

manure spreading (due to work done by contractors and reduced need for mineral

fertilizer).

•But manure storage costs not changed

Compared to Draft version of CIAM 1/2011 (presented at TFIAM 39):

•No further measures for off-road sources up to 2020

•Swiss national activity projection

•PRIMES 2009 for EU countries that have not supplied national projections

Activity projections - sources

The Europe-wide PRIMES 2009 projection is adopted as the central case,

and sensitivity analyses are carried out for the National projection

Europe-wide PRIMES 2009 scenario

National scenario

Energy projections

PRIMES 2009 baseline EU-27, CR, MK, NO BE, BG, CY, EE, FR, DE, HU, MK, LV, LT, LU, MT, PL, RO, SK, SI

National projections CH AT, CR, CZ, DK, FI, GR, IE, IT, NL, NO, PT, ES, SE, CH, UK

IEA WEO 2009 AL, BY, BA, MD, RU, RS, UA AL, BY, BA, MD, RU, RS, UA

Agriculture

CAPRI 2009 EU-27, AL, BA, CR, MK, NO, RS AL, BA, BG, CY, CZ, DK, EE, FR, DE, GR, HU, LV, LT, LU, MK, MT, NO, PL, PT, RS, SL

National projections CH AT, BE, CR, FI, IE, IT, NL, RO, SK, ES, SE, CH, UK

FAO 2003 BY, MD, RU, UA BY, MD, RU, UA

Scope for further environmental improvements

relative to the year 2000

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

EU-27

Non-EU

EU-27

Non-EU

EU-27

Non-EU

EU-27

Non-EU

EU-27

Non-EU

EU-27

Non-EU

EU-27

Non-EU

PM health O3 health Acid, forestarea

Acid, waterarea

Acid av.exceedance

Eutro, area Eutro av.exceed.

Chan

ge in

impa

ct in

dica

tor c

ompa

red

to 2

000

Baseline change 2000-2020 Scope for further technical measures Residual impacts

Health Acidification Eutrophication

Impact indicators and target setting rules

used for this report

• Health impacts of PM2.5:– Years of life lost (YOLL), with actual population – Europe-wide gap closure between CLE and MTFR

• Eutrophication:– Excess deposition accumulated over all ecosystems in a country– For each country same gap closure % between CLE and MTFR– Area of protected ecosystems calculated ex-post

• Acidification– Excess deposition accumulated over all ecosystems in a country– For each country same gap closure % between CLE and MTFR– Area of protected ecosystems calculated ex-post

• Ozone:– For health effects: SOMO35 – For each country same gap closure % between CLE and MTFR– Vegetation and crop impacts calculated in ex-post analysis

Choosing an ambition level

Costs for improving individual effects

Five sets of targets

derived from sensitivity analyses for modifications of

ambition levels of a single effect

Health-PM Acidification Eutrophication Ozone

HIGH 75% 75% 75% 75% High* 75% 75% 75% 50% Mid 50% 50% 60% 40% Low* 25% 25% 50% 25% LOW 25% 25% 25% 25%

Central case`

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75%

Co

st

Gap closure for single impact indicators (all other 3 at 75% fix)

Health PM

Acidification

Eutrophication

Ozone

High case

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75%

Co

st

Gap closure for single impact indicators (all other 3 at 25% fix)

Health PM

Acidification

Eutrophication

Ozone

Low case

Additional air pollution control costs (on top of baseline)

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH

% o

f GD

P in

202

0

EU-27 Non-EU

0.40.6

1.4

3.1

6.8

0.2 0.3

0.9

2.3

3.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH

Billi

on €

/yr

EU-27 Non-EU

Billion €/yr % of GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH MTFR

Billi

on E

uro/

yr

Morbidity Mortality Uncertainty range Mortality central estimate

Health benefits (compared to baseline case)

EU-27 only, based on Holland et al., 2011

Morbidity endpoints:Chronic bronchitisRespiratory hospital admissionsCardiac hospital admissionsRestricted activity days (RADs)Work days lostRespiratory medication use (children)Respiratory medication use (adults)LRS (including cough) among childrenLRS in adults with chronic symptoms

Work time gained from better air quality vs.

Work time spent to pay for additional emission controls

EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Baseline LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH Maximumtechnically

feasiblereductions

Hou

rs p

er w

orke

r per

yea

r

Emission control cases in CIAM 1/2011 report

Working time gained from less absence from work

Working time required to pay for measures

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Baseline LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH Maximumtechnically

feasiblereductions

Hou

rs p

er w

orke

r per

yea

r

Emission control cases in CIAM 1/2011 report

Working time gained from less absence from work

Working time required to pay for measures

Additional measures for SO2 (on top of baseline)

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU

SO2

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other SO2 sources

Agricultural waste burning

Residential and commercial

Industry: Other processes

Industry: Other combustion

Industry: Paper and pulp

Refineries

Coke plants: Combustion

Oil-fired power pPlants

Coal-fired power plants

Low* Mid High*

Additional measures for NOx (on top of baseline)

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU

NO

x re

ducti

ons

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

Other NOx sources

Industry: Other combustion

Conversion: Combustion

Industry: Cement

Industry: Lime

Industry: Glass

Industry: Agglomeration plants - Sinter

Industrial boilers

Power plants

Low* Mid High*

Additional measures for PM2.5 (on top of baseline)

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU

PM re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other PM sourcesAgricultural waste burningResidential waste burningResidential and commercial: BiomassResidential and commercial: CoalIndustry: Other processesIndustry: AluminumIndustry: Fertilizer productionIndustry: Iron and steelIndustry: CementCoal-fired power plants

Low* Mid High*

Additional measures for NH3 (on top of baseline)

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU

NH

3 re

ducti

ons

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

Agricultural waste burning

Urea fertilizer

Sheep and goats

Poultry

Pigs

Non-dairy cattle

Dairy cattle

Low* Mid High*

Additional measures for VOC (on top of baseline)

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU

VOC

redu

ction

s rel

ative

to b

asel

ine

Other VOC sources

Agricultural waste burning

Sectors falling under the Solvent Directive

Other industries

Other industries: Solvent use

Industry: Chemicals

Industry: Oil production and distribution

Low* Mid High*

Key measures for the mid case

SO2:

FGD for power plants in non-EU

Low S coal in the domestic sector in new EU Member States

NOx:

SCR for power plants in non-EU

NOx controls in some industrial sectors (e.g., cement) (EU and non-EU)

PM2.5:

Dust control for iron & steel industry in non-EU

Agricultural waste burning (EU and non-EU)

NH3:

Measures for cattle, pig and poultry farms

Substitution of urea fertilizer

Agricultural waste burning (EU and non-EU)

VOC:

Additional measures for sectors falling under the Solvents Directive

Agricultural waste burning (EU and non-EU)

Additional measures for SO2

by country

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

RUSS

BELA

MO

LDSW

ITCR

OA

ALBA

SEM

OM

ACE

UKR

ABO

HEN

ORW

LATV

IREL

LITH

FIN

LPO

RTG

REE

DEN

MES

TORO

MA

POLA

SPAI

HU

NG

SLO

VIT

ALSK

REFR

ANAU

STCZ

REG

ERM

BULG

BELG

NET

HSW

EDU

NKI

LUXE

MAL

TCY

PR

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

SO2

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other SO2 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential and Commercial

Industry: Other Processes

Industry Other Combustion

Industry: Paper and Pulp

Refineries

Conversion Combustion

Oil fired Power Plants

Coal fired Power Plants

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

UKR

ARU

SSBE

LACR

OA

SEM

OM

OLD

BOHE

SWIT

ALBA

MAC

EN

ORW

LITH

POLA

SPAI

BELG

ESTO

LATV

UN

KIH

UN

GIR

ELCZ

REFI

NL

FRAN

SWED

GER

MPO

RTDE

NM

GRE

ERO

MA

NET

HSL

OV

ITAL

SKRE

AUST

BULG

LUXE

MAL

TCY

PR

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

SO2

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other SO2 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential and Commercial

Industry: Other Processes

Industry Other Combustion

Industry: Paper and Pulp

Refineries

Conversion Combustion

Oil fired Power Plants

Coal fired Power Plants

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

UKR

ARU

SSBE

LABO

HECR

OA

ALBA

MO

LDSE

MO

SWIT

MAC

EN

ORW

MAL

TH

UN

GRO

MA

LITH

SKRE

SPAI

POLA

ITAL

PORT

BULG

UN

KIFR

ANIR

ELBE

LGSL

OV

LUXE

LATV

ESTO

CZRE

NET

HG

ERM

DEN

MAU

STFI

NL

GRE

ECY

PRSW

ED

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

SO2

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other SO2 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential and Commercial

Industry: Other Processes

Industry Other Combustion

Industry: Paper and Pulp

Refineries

Conversion Combustion

Oil fired Power Plants

Coal fired Power Plants

Low*

High*

Mid

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

UKR

ARU

SSBE

LACR

OA

SEM

OM

OLD

BOH

ESW

ITAL

BAM

ACE

NO

RW

LITH

POLA

SPAI

BELG

ESTO

LATV

UN

KIH

UN

GIR

ELCZ

REFI

NL

FRAN

SWED

GER

MPO

RTD

ENM

GRE

ERO

MA

NET

HSL

OV

ITAL

SKRE

AUST

BULG

LUXE

MAL

TCY

PR

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

SO2

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other SO2 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential and Commercial

Industry: Other Processes

Industry Other Combustion

Industry: Paper and Pulp

Refineries

Conversion Combustion

Oil fired Power Plants

Coal fired Power Plants

Additional measures for NOx

by country

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

CRO

ABE

LAM

ACE

UKR

AM

OLD

NO

RWSE

MO

RUSS

BOHE

ALBA

SWIT

ESTO

ROM

AIR

ELSK

RELI

THSP

AIG

REE

CYPR

DEN

MLA

TVCZ

RESW

EDH

UN

GFR

ANU

NKI

ITAL

FIN

LSL

OV

BELG

POLA

PORT

MAL

TAU

STBU

LGG

ERM

LUXE

NET

H

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NO

x re

ducti

ons

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

Other NOx sources

Industry Other Combustion

Conversion Combustion

Industry: Cement

Industry: Lime

Industry: Glass

Industry: Agglomeration plant -sinterIndustrial Boilers

Power Plants

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

BOHE

CRO

ABE

LAU

KRA

MAC

ERU

SSSE

MO

MO

LDAL

BAN

ORW

SWIT

ESTO

ROM

ACY

PRSK

REIR

ELSP

AIG

REE

UN

KIPO

LAH

UN

GLI

THIT

ALCZ

REFR

ANDE

NM

PORT

LATV

BULG

SWED

BELG

GER

MSL

OV

AUST

FIN

LM

ALT

NET

HLU

XE

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NO

X re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other NOx sources

Industry Other Combustion

Conversion Combustion

Industry: Cement

Industry: Lime

Industry: Glass

Industry: Agglomeration plant -sinterIndustrial Boilers

Power Plants

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

BOHE

CRO

AU

KRA

SEM

ORU

SSBE

LAM

ACE

NO

RWM

OLD

ALBA

SWIT

ESTO

SKRE

ROM

ACY

PRIR

ELPO

RTU

NKI

BULG

HU

NG

SPAI

CZRE

FRAN

GRE

EPO

LAIT

ALDE

NM

LITH

BELG

SWED

GER

MLA

TVFI

NL

SLO

VAU

STM

ALT

NET

HLU

XE

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NO

X re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other NOx sources

Industry Other Combustion

Conversion Combustion

Industry: Cement

Industry: Lime

Industry: Glass

Industry: Agglomeration plant -sinterIndustrial Boilers

Power Plants

Low*

High*

Mid

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

BOH

ECR

OA

BELA

UKR

AM

ACE

RUSS

SEM

OM

OLD

ALBA

NO

RWSW

IT

ESTO

ROM

ACY

PRSK

REIR

ELSP

AIG

REE

UN

KIPO

LAH

UN

GLI

THIT

ALCZ

REFR

AND

ENM

PORT

LATV

BULG

SWED

BELG

GER

MSL

OV

AUST

FIN

LM

ALT

NET

HLU

XE

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NO

X re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other NOx sources

Industry Other Combustion

Conversion Combustion

Industry: Cement

Industry: Lime

Industry: Glass

Industry: Agglomeration plant -sinterIndustrial Boilers

Power Plants

Additional measures for PM2.5

by country

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

MO

LDBE

LARU

SSCR

OA

SEM

OSW

ITAL

BAU

KRA

MAC

EBO

HEN

ORW

LITH

ROM

AG

REE

PORT

ESTO

SPAI

HU

NG

SKRE

BULG

SLO

VLA

TVPO

LAIT

ALCZ

REFR

ANBE

LGAU

STG

ERM

UN

KIN

ETH

FIN

LDE

NM

CYPR

IREL

LUXE

MAL

TSW

ED

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

PM re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other PM sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential waste burning

Residential and Commercial:BiomassResidential and Commercial: Coal

Industry: Other Processes

Industry: Aluminum

Industry: Fertilizer Production

Industry: Iron and Steel

Industry: Cement

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

UKR

ARU

SSM

OLD

BELA

CRO

AM

ACE

SEM

OAL

BASW

ITBO

HEN

ORW

PORT

ROM

ALI

THBU

LGG

REE

ESTO

SKRE

HU

NG

SPAI

SLO

VLA

TVFR

ANIT

ALPO

LABE

LGCZ

REAU

STDE

NM

GER

MU

NKI

NET

HFI

NL

LUXE

SWED

CYPR

IREL

MAL

T

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

PM re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other PM sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential waste burning

Residential and Commercial:BiomassResidential and Commercial: Coal

Industry: Other Processes

Industry: Aluminum

Industry: Fertilizer Production

Industry: Iron and Steel

Industry: Cement

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

UKR

ARU

SSM

OLD

CRO

ABE

LAM

ACE

SEM

OBO

HEAL

BASW

ITN

ORW

PORT

ROM

ABU

LGSL

OV

LITH

GRE

EES

TOH

UN

GSP

AIBE

LGSK

REFR

ANIT

ALU

NKI

LATV

CZRE

POLA

FIN

LDE

NM

AUST

GER

MN

ETH

SWED

IREL

LUXE

MAL

TCY

PR

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

PM re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other PM sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential waste burning

Residential and Commercial:BiomassResidential and Commercial: Coal

Industry: Other Processes

Industry: Aluminum

Industry: Fertilizer Production

Industry: Iron and Steel

Industry: Cement

Low*

High*

Mid

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

UKR

ARU

SSM

OLD

BELA

CRO

AM

ACE

SEM

OAL

BASW

ITBO

HE

NO

RW

PORT

ROM

ALI

THBU

LGG

REE

ESTO

SKRE

HU

NG

SPAI

SLO

VLA

TVFR

ANIT

ALPO

LABE

LGCZ

REAU

STD

ENM

GER

MU

NKI

NET

HFI

NL

LUXE

SWED

CYPR

IREL

MAL

T

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

PM re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other PM sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Residential waste burning

Residential and Commercial:BiomassResidential and Commercial: Coal

Industry: Other Processes

Industry: Aluminum

Industry: Fertilizer Production

Industry: Iron and Steel

Industry: Cement

Coal fired Power Plants

Additional measures for NH3

by country

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

CRO

AN

ORW

SEM

OBO

HEBE

LAU

KRA

MO

LDRU

SSAL

BAM

ACE

SWIT

ESTO

SKRE

HU

NG

GER

MCY

PRRO

MA

SPAI

FRAN

ITAL

LATV

LITH

POLA

GRE

EPO

RTSW

EDFI

NL

LUXE

UN

KIIR

ELAU

STCZ

RESL

OV

BELG

DEN

MBU

LGN

ETH

MAL

T

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NH

3 re

ducti

ons

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

Other NH3 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Urea Fertilizer

Sheep and Goats

Poultry

Pigs

Non-Dairy Cattle

Dairy Cattle

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

CRO

ASE

MO

NO

RWU

KRA

MO

LDBE

LABO

HEAL

BAM

ACE

RUSS

SWIT

ESTO

SKRE

HU

NG

GER

MRO

MA

LITH

CYPR

SPAI

FRAN

ITAL

LATV

POLA

GRE

ESL

OV

PORT

FIN

LSW

EDAU

STLU

XEU

NKI

IREL

CZRE

BULG

BELG

DEN

MN

ETH

MAL

T

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NH

3 re

ducti

ons

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

Other NH3 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Urea Fertilizer

Sheep and Goats

Poultry

Pigs

Non-Dairy Cattle

Dairy Cattle

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

CRO

ASE

MO

NO

RWM

OLD

UKR

ARU

SSBO

HEBE

LAAL

BAM

ACE

SWIT

ESTO

HU

NG

SKRE

FRAN

LITH

ITAL

CYPR

SPAI

GER

MRO

MA

PORT

LATV

GRE

ECZ

REPO

LASL

OV

AUST

SWED

FIN

LLU

XEIR

ELU

NKI

MAL

TBU

LGBE

LGDE

NM

NET

H

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NH

3 re

ducti

ons

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

Other NH3 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Urea Fertilizer

Sheep and Goats

Poultry

Pigs

Non-Dairy Cattle

Dairy Cattle

Low*

High*

Mid

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

CRO

ASE

MO

NO

RWU

KRA

MO

LDBE

LABO

HE

ALBA

MAC

ERU

SSSW

IT

ESTO

SKRE

HU

NG

GER

MRO

MA

LITH

CYPR

SPAI

FRAN

ITAL

LATV

POLA

GRE

ESL

OV

PORT

FIN

LSW

EDAU

STLU

XEU

NKI

IREL

CZRE

BULG

BELG

DEN

MN

ETH

MAL

T

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

NH

3 re

ducti

ons

rela

tive

to b

asel

ine

Other NH3 sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Urea Fertilizer

Sheep and Goats

Poultry

Pigs

Non-Dairy Cattle

Dairy Cattle

Additional measures for VOC

by country

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

MO

LDCR

OA

SWIT

UKR

ARU

SSSE

MO

MAC

EBE

LABO

HEAL

BAN

ORW

GER

MRO

MA

BULG

IREL

HU

NG

UN

KIPO

RTG

REE

LATV

LITH

CZRE

POLA

LUXE

ESTO

BELG

SPAI

SWED

MAL

TAU

STSL

OV

DEN

MSK

REN

ETH

ITAL

FIN

LFR

ANCY

PR

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

VOC

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other VOC sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Sectors falling under the SolventDirective

Other Industries

Other Industries: Solvent Use

Industry: Chemicals

Industry: Oil Production andDistribution

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

MO

LDCR

OA

RUSS

UKR

ASW

ITN

ORW

BELA

SEM

OM

ACE

BOHE

ALBA

MAL

TG

ERM

ROM

AU

NKI

BULG

IREL

PORT

LATV

HU

NG

NET

HAU

STLI

THBE

LGLU

XECZ

REG

REE

SPAI

POLA

ESTO

SWED

DEN

MFR

ANSK

REIT

ALSL

OV

FIN

LCY

PR

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

VOC

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other VOC sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Sectors falling under the SolventDirectiveOther Industries

Other Industries: Solvent Use

Industry: Chemicals

Industry: Oil Production andDistribution

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

MO

LDCR

OA

RUSS

UKR

ASW

ITBE

LAN

ORW

SEM

OM

ACE

BOHE

ALBA

SLO

VM

ALT

IREL

GER

MU

NKI

ROM

AN

ETH

PORT

HU

NG

BULG

LATV

AUST

CZRE

BELG

GRE

ELI

THLU

XEES

TOSP

AIPO

LAFR

ANDE

NM

ITAL

SWED

SKRE

FIN

LCY

PR

UN

ECE

EU27

nonE

U

VOC

redu

ction

s re

lativ

e to

bas

elin

e

Other VOC sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Sectors falling under the SolventDirective

Other Industries

Other Industries: Solvent Use

Industry: Chemicals

Industry: Oil Production andDistribution

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

MO

LDC

RO

AR

US

SU

KR

AS

WIT

NO

RW

BE

LAS

EM

OM

AC

EB

OH

EA

LBA

MA

LTG

ER

MR

OM

AU

NK

IB

ULG

IREL

POR

TLA

TV

HU

NG

NE

THA

US

TLI

TH

BE

LGLU

XE

CZ

RE

GR

EE

SPA

IPO

LAE

STO

SW

ED

DE

NM

FRA

NS

KR

EIT

AL

SLO

VFI

NL

CYP

R

UN

EC

EE

U2

7n

onE

U

VO

C r

ed

uct

ion

s re

lati

ve t

o b

ase

lin

e

Other VOC sources

Agricultural Waste burning

Sectors falling under theSolvent DirectiveOther Industries

Other Industries: SolventUseIndustry: Chemicals

Industry: Oil Productionand Distribution

Low*

High*

Mid

Three sensitivity analyses

1. For national activity projections:

– Emission ceilings could become unachievable for fundamentally different assumptions on energy and agricultural policies (compared to PRIMES/CAPRI)

2. Additional targets on radiative forcing:

– The scenarios reduce the negative forcing (and thus increase radiative forcing) in the EMEP domain by up to 0.1 W/m2 (compared to a current total forcing from long-lived greenhouse gases of about 2.7 W/m2).

– Low cost measures are available to limit increase in radiative forcing from stricter SO2 controls (particle filters, agricultural waste burning,

etc.)

3. Excluding the urban increment (‘city-delta’) for PM:

– Urban increments do not have large influence on national emission ceilings for optimized scenarios based on a gap closure approach

– However, urban increments affect absolute estimates of health effects

Conclusions

• The report presents five scenarios aiming at 25% to 75% of the feasible improvements for each air quality effect, with additional emission control costs ranging from 0.6 to 10.6 billion €/yr. Modified targets for ozone would have largest impact on control costs.

• Up to the High* case, costs are already compensated by gains in work time

• Key measures:

– All countries:

• Agricultural waste burning

• NH3 from livestock farming, substitution of urea fertilizer

• SO2 and PM controls for domestic stoves

• VOC from sectors falling under the Solvents Directive

– Non-EU:

• SO2 and NOx controls for power plants

• NOx controls for some industrial boilers

• PM controls for industrial processes

Access to all data via GAINS-Online

URL: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

Version: GAINS-Europe

Scenario group: CIAM 1/2011-March

Scenarios:

Data for the year 2000: GOTH_2000

Optimized scenarios:•PRIMES baseline: GOTH_PRIMESBL2009_baseline_rev1•LOW case: GOTH_PRIMESBL2009_LOW_rev1•Low* case: GOTH_PRIMESBL2009_Low-star_rev1•Mid case: GOTH_PRIMESBL2009_MID_rev1•High* case: GOTH_PRIMESBL2009_High-star_rev1•High case: GOTH_PRIMESBL2009_HIGH_rev1•Maximum feasible reductions: GOTH_PRIMESBL2009_MFR_rev1

Additional slides

Sensitivity analysis 1 – National activity projections:

Distance between optimized cases and MTFR of national scenario

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Bul

gari

a

Cypr

us

Czec

h_R

epub

lic

Den

mar

k

Esto

nia

Finl

and

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Irel

and

Ital

y

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mal

ta

Net

herl

ands

Pola

nd

Port

ugal

Rom

ania

Slov

akia

Slov

enia

Spai

n

Swed

en

Uni

ted_

King

dom

Alb

ania

Bel

arus

Bos

nia_

Her

zego

win

a

Croa

tia

Mac

edon

ia

Mol

dova

Nor

way

Rus

sian

_Fed

erati

on_E

Serb

ia_M

onte

negr

o

Swit

zerl

and

Ukr

aine

Diff

eren

ce b

etw

een

th

e M

TFR

em

issi

on

s o

f th

e N

atio

nal

sce

nar

io a

nd

th

e em

issi

on

cei

lings

o

pti

miz

ed fo

r th

e PR

IMES

pro

jecti

on

s

Low* case Mid case High* caseSO2

• Emission ceilings could become unachievable for fundamentally different assumptions on energy and agricultural policies (compared to PRIMES/CAPRI)

Sensitivity analysis 2 – Radiative forcing:

Instantaneous radiative forcing over the EMEP region

for cost-effective air pollution scenarios (from aerosol emissions)

-680

-660

-640

-620

-600

-580

-560

-540

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Radi

ative

For

cing

ove

r the

EM

EP re

gion

[mW

/m2]

Gap closure

Health-PM Acidification

Eutrophication All four effects

BaselineMTFR

*)

Fo

r co

mp

aris

on

: to

tal f

orc

ing

fro

m lo

ng

-live

d G

HG

s: ~

2.7

W/m

2

Sensitivity analysis 2 – Radiative forcing:

Costs for reducing radiative forcing

in addition to the air quality targets

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

-700 -680 -660 -640 -620 -600 -580 -560

Cost

s ab

ove

base

line

(MEu

ro/y

r)

Radiative Forcing above EMEP region (mW/m2)

LOW

Low*

MID

High*

HIGH

Cost-effective air pollution scenarios for the four effects

Sensitivity analysis 2 – Radiative forcing:

Cost-effective changes in emissions for reducing radiative

forcing, in addition to the targets for air quality impacts

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

-700 -680 -660 -640 -620 -600 -580 -560

SO2

Emis

sion

s (k

ton)

Radiative Forcing above EMEP region (mW/m2)

LOW

Low*

MID

High*

HIGH

SO20

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

-700 -680 -660 -640 -620 -600 -580 -560

NO

x Em

issi

ons

(kto

n)

Radiative Forcing above EMEP region (mW/m2)

LOW

Low*

MID

High*

HIGH

NOx

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-700 -680 -660 -640 -620 -600 -580 -560

PM2.

5 Em

issi

ons

(kto

ns/y

r)

Radiative Forcing above EMEP region (mW/m2)

LOW

Low*

MID

High*

HIGH

PM2.5

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

-700 -680 -660 -640 -620 -600 -580 -560

NH

3 Em

issi

ons

(kto

n)

Radiative Forcing above EMEP region (mW/m2)

LOW

Low*

MID

High*

HIGH

NH3

• To reduce radiative forcing at low costs:

– SO2 emissions are cut to a lesser extent (mainly in non-EU countries).

– The resulting increase in PM2.5 levels is compensated by additional cuts in NH3 emissions.

Sensitivity analysis 3:

No urban increment for EU (and non-EU) countries

• Urban increments do not have large influence on national emission ceilings for optimized scenarios based on a gap closure approach

• However, urban increments affect absolute estimates of health effects

Emissions in the EU-27 for the mid case and the variant without urban increment (kilotons)

SO2 NOX PM2.5 NH3 VOC

Mid case (original) 2508 5046 907 2819 5437

Sensitivity case without urban increment

2513 5046 910 2820 5436

Difference (absolute) -5 0 -3 -2 0

Difference (%) -0.18% 0.00% -0.33% -0.06% 0.00%