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Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

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Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options. Hannes Böttcher 1 , Petr Havlík 1 , Arturo Castillo Castillo 2 , Jeremy Woods 2 , Robert Matthews 3 , Jo House 4 , Michael Obersteiner 1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Scenarios of global climate Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through change mitigation through competing biomass management competing biomass management options options Hannes Böttcher 1 , Petr Havlík 1 , Arturo Castillo Castillo 2 , Jeremy Woods 2 , Robert Matthews 3 , Jo House 4 , Michael Obersteiner 1 1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2231 Laxenburg, Austria 2 Centre for Environmental Policy, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom 3 Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham, Surrey GU10 4LH, United Kingdom 4 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queen's Road, Clifton, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom [email protected] IIASA Forestry Program Laxenburg, Austria QUEST – AIMES Earth System Science Conference Edinburgh, May 10-13 2010
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Page 1: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Scenarios of global climate change Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing mitigation through competing biomass management optionsbiomass management options

Hannes Böttcher1, Petr Havlík1, Arturo Castillo Castillo2, Jeremy Woods2,Robert Matthews3, Jo House4, Michael Obersteiner1

1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2231 Laxenburg, Austria2 Centre for Environmental Policy, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom3 Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham, Surrey GU10 4LH, United Kingdom4 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queen's Road, Clifton, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom

[email protected] Forestry Program

Laxenburg, Austria

QUEST – AIMES Earth System Science Conference Edinburgh, May 10-13 2010

Page 2: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Background

Many countries have set up bioenergy policies to support and regulate the production and use of fuels from biomass feedstocks (e.g. US, EU, Brazil, China, India)But biofuels are hotly debated today because their overall impacts are uncertain and difficult to assess, being highly dependant on both the bioenergy fuel chain (choice of crop and technology), and on the existing land useDirect biofuel benefits are linked to indirect land use impacts and adverse externalities regarding GHG emission balances, ecosystem services, and security of food and waterIn particular, the implementation of biofuel targets might conflict with other mitigation options like avoided deforestation or enhancing forest carbon stocks

Page 3: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Effective mitigation

Obersteiner, Böttcher et al. accepted COSUST

Page 4: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

High hopes

Page 5: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

QUATERMASS OverviewQUATERMASS Overview

Global-regional scale impacts & opportunities modelling(IIASA)

Regional to local impacts & opportunities modelling(Forest Research and Aberdeen)

Local impacts & opportunities modellingGround-truthing / Case studies (Ecometrica)

Synthesis & Policy Analysis(Im

perial College)

Feedback & Communication

Atmospheric greenhouse gases

Page 6: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Model description: GLOBIOMModel description: GLOBIOMGlobal Biomass Optimisation Model

Coverage: global, 28 regions3 land based sectors:Forestry: traditional forests for sawnwood, and pulp and paper productionAgriculture: major agricultural cropsBioenergy: conventional crops and dedicated forest plantations

Optimization Model (FASOM structure)Recursive dynamic spatial equilibrium modelMaximization of the social welfare (Producer plus consumer surplus)Partial equilibrium model (land use sector only): endogenous prices

OutputProductionConsumptionPrices, trade flows, etc.

Havlik et al. 2010 Energy Policy

Page 7: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

GLOBIOM: Global Biomass Optimisation ModelIntegrated land-use and bioenergy modelling

World divided into 28 regions

Havlik et al. 2010 Energy Policy

Page 8: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Model Model description: Supply chainsdescription: Supply chains

Wood Processing

Bioenergy Processing

Livestock Feeding

Unmanaged Forest

Managed Forest

Short RotationTree Plantations

Cropland

Grassland

Other Natural Vegetation

Energy products:Ethanol (1st gen.)Biodiesel (1st gen.)Ethanol (2nd gen)MethanolHeatPowerGasFuel wood

Forest products:SawnwoodWoodpulp

Livestock:Animal Calories

Crops:BarleyCornCotton …

Havlik et al. 2010 Energy Policy

Page 9: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Model description: EPIC AgricultureModel description: EPIC AgricultureCrop related parameters: SimU EPIC

Major inputs:WeatherSoilTopographyLand management

Major outputs:YieldsEnvironmental variables

4 management systems:High input, Low input, Irrigated, Subsistence

EPIC

Rain, Snow, Chemicals

Subsurface FlowSurface

Flow

Below Root Zone

Evaporation and

Transpiration

Page 10: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Model description: EPIC - YieldsModel description: EPIC - YieldsYields Emissions

Carbon stock

Page 11: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Productivity distribution

Model description: Forest plantationsModel description: Forest plantations

Area [Mha]

Prod

ucti

vity

[m

3/ha

]

Page 12: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Uncertainty of land cover

Mapping errorsClassification errorsValidation of global land cover: www.geo-wiki.orgAssociated land use allocation

GLC 2000

MODIS

GLC2000 MODIS FAO(2000)Cropland 2383 1701 1530Forest 4165 5121 3989Grassland 1328 1224 3430Other natural vegetation 2734 2788 4064Sum of above classes 10610 10835 13013

Mha

Bellarby et al. 2010, see poster

Page 13: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Detailed bioenergy chains (not yet fully implemented)

Castillo et al. 2010, see poster

Feedstock

Process Current land use Energy generation

Chains

Sweet sorghum

1 Convntl. Ethanol “1st G” 2 Advanced Ethanol “2nd G”

1 Degraded pasture2 Existing cropland3 Marginal/abandoned4 Grassland

1 Residue boiler CHP 2 Residue boiler + grid electricity3 Diesel genset

24

Wheat 1 Convntl. Ethanol “1st G” 2 Advanced Ethanol “2nd G”

1 Degraded pasture2 Set-aside3 Grassland4 Existing cropland

1 NG boiler + ST2 NG + grid electricity3 CCGT4 Straw boiler + ST5 Biogas CHP

40

Palm oil 1 Convntl. Biodiesel “1st G”

1 Existing cropland 2 Degraded pasture3 Forest4 Grassland (Imperata)

1 Oil boiler + ST2 Oil CHP3 Residue boiler + ST 12

Soy 1 Convntl. Biodiesel “1st G”

1 Grassland2 Existing cropland3 Set-aside4 Forest

1 NG boiler + ST2 NG + grid electricity3 CCGT4 Straw boiler + ST

16

Page 14: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Policy scenariosPolicy scenarios

Baseline without any additional bioenergy NO bioshockBioenergy demand increased by 50% in 2030 compared to baseline 50 bioshockREDD, decreasing deforestation emissions by 50/90% in 2020/2030 compared to baselineNO bioshock REDCombination of Bioenergy and REDD 50 bioshock REDTwo alternative modeling settings

without biofuel feedstock trade with biofuel feedstock trade

Page 15: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Land use change implications of bioenergy

Page 16: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Impact of bioenery demand on land useImpact of bioenery demand on land use

Page 17: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Land expansion localisation: croplandLand expansion localisation: cropland

Page 18: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Impacts of REDD policies

Page 19: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Deforestation from cropland expansionDeforestation from cropland expansion

Page 20: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Effect of REDD policyEffect of REDD policydifference between bioenergy and bioenergy+REDD difference between bioenergy and bioenergy+REDD

scenarioscenario

Forest saved

Expansion into other

land

Reduced cropland expansion

Page 21: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Importance of trade

Page 22: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Mha, based on WEO 2020 targets, If not constrained (e.g. by REDD) important deforestation occurs

30

20

10

0

World biofuel targets, no trade

World biofuel targets, with trade

EU biofuel targets, no trade

EU biofuel targets, with trade

Deforestation due to biofuel expansion

Page 23: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

In Mha, EU mandates in 2020 put pressure on deforestation elsewhere even without trade – iLUC!

6

4

2

0South

America Pacific

AsiaAfrica South

Asia

6

4

2

0South

America Pacific

AsiaAfrica South

Asia

Deforestation due to EU biofuel expansion

With tradeWithout trade

Page 24: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Crop price index, avoiding deforestation further increases the effect of biofuels on crop prices

With trade, allowing deforestation

With trade, preventing deforestation

Without trade, allowing deforestation

Without trade, preventing deforestation

1.10

1.05

1.00

1.15

1.20

World biofuel expansion and crop prices

Page 25: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Conclusions (1) Biofuel expansion generates important indirect GHG emissions (iLUC) Trade lowers global deforestation pressure by iLUCDimension of iLUC depends more on efficient sourcing of biofuels than on the global scale of productionPolicies (like REDD) aiming at (i)LUC effects will put pressure on crop pricesHow will management systems adapt?

Page 26: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Conclusions (2)

Decreasing the human footprint on the atmosphere will necessitate active management of terrestrial C pools and GHG fluxesMost options might appear as competitive mitigation measures from an economic point of viewBut issues of governance remain most contentious as they induce competition for land and other ecosystem services

Page 27: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Status of global forest certificationStatus of global forest certification

compiled from FAO 2005, 2001; CIESIN 2007, ATFS 2008; FSC 2008; PEFC 2008

Kraxner et al., 2008

Certified forest area relative to area of forest available for wood supply

Page 28: Scenarios of global climate change mitigation through competing biomass management options

Thank [email protected]


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