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“School Enrolments and Trends”
SPOA & CEFPI
Spring, 2009
The Enrolment Challenge
Strong futures are built upon ashared understanding of present realities
ENROLMENT
GOVERNMENTFUNDING
FACILITIES
Share information about recent history and future projections
The challenge we face, given the provincial funding formula and a long-term decline in enrolment
A Puzzle of the future shape of district programs and facilities
Demographic Trends
We’ve Been Living a ‘Boom, Bust and Echo’
The ‘Boom, Bust & Echo:
Baby Boomers born between 1947 to 1966
Peaked in 1959 with 480,000 Canadian births
Bust Generation 1967 to 1979 –
child bearing declined to 1.6 children per couple.
Echo Boomer Children 1980 to 1995
Peaked in 1990 with 405,000 Canadian births
By 1997 Births were 13 percent below this peak
Peak Births are now 19 years old
The Demographic Future
We’ll be facing both declining elementary and declining secondary enrolments much as we did in the mid-1970s when the Boomer parents of the Echo students completed their elementary and secondary education.
Boomers moved to the suburbs to raise their Echo children, these population trends are likely to be especially apparent in Canada's suburbs.
Current age distribution provides an excellent road map for future planning and education funding as long as we use local
demographic information for our planning.
“The Population Pyramid”
“The Future Population Pyramid”
http://www.footwork.com/pyramids.asp
School District Enrolment Issues
Economic Changes Affecting Growth
Open Boundaries
Enrolment Flow Patterns
Increase of Magnet Programs
Facility Consolidations, if not already undertaken
Look Below the Surface
Total Population for All Agesis growing
School Age enrolment is declining and only justrecovers to current levels
Enrolment Projections: Total
Experience Elsewhere in BC
Enrolment Projections 2000 -2010 (1558A)
Province 2000 2010 Change
Elementary 352,426 305,959 -13%
Secondary 258,425 253,211 -2%
Saanich 2000 2010 Change
Elementary 4,968 3,794 -23%
Secondary 4,002 3,543 -11%
Independent Schools
Enrolment Projections 2000 -2010 (1558A)
Independent 2000 2010 Change
Elementary 38,962 36,787 -5.6%
Secondary 20,535 21,412+4.2%
Saanich 2000 2010 Change
Elementary 4,968 3,794 -23%
Secondary 4,002 3,543 -11%
Cross Boundary Considerations
Keating Elementary School
Early French Immersion Magnet
English Total Cross Boundary Enrolment
Economic Considerations
In-migration or Out-migration is impacted by job prospects and
housing affordability of your area.
Recession of 1982 working parents relocated to Ontario or Alberta
Compare Changes to Unemployment Rates across Canada or BC
Consider Major Industry Closures
Enrolment Flow Patterns
Background– Map of School District & Catchment Boundaries
– Location of Schools and Enrolments
– Available Before or After School Care Programs
– Proximity of Recreation Facilities
– Major Traffic School Bus or Transportation Routes
– New Locally Developed or Magnet Programs
– Parent School ‘Shopping’
School Choice Legislation
Government amended the School Act to give parents and students the freedom to choose any school provided space is available
District cannot mandate that students attend a particular school to maintain enrolment
The District spreads over4 municipalities:
• Sidney
• North Saanich
• Central Saanich
• Saanich
District Map
Enrolment Flow Patterns
Majority of Students in Southern Cordova Bay Catchment Attend Lochside
If Consistent, Legitimize through Boundary Adjustment, or Enable Open Boundaries.
Cla rem o n t S ec.Un k n o wn Ad d resses
Lo ch sid e Elem .Un k n o wn Ad d resses
0
500
1000
1500
Secondary Enrolment
Out of District 182 15 9
Out of Catchment 35 124 33
Within Catchment 871 795 752
South Zone Central North Zone
School Catchment ConsiderationsRegular Programs: Non-French Immersion
How hasGovernment Funding Changed?
Funding System up to 2001/02 recognized base fixed costs in funding allocation:
– provided base instructional cost per school– provided funding for operating and maintaining schools on a
per square meter basis– recognized the number of district schools
Current Funding System provides the majority of the funding on a per pupil basis:
– funding for operating and maintaining schools is within the base per pupil funding (about 11.5%)
– no base instructional funding base per school– enrolment decline grant for one year
District Responses
School Closures
113 Schools in B.C. closed:
- 88 Elementary Schools- 5 Middle Schools- 6 Secondary- 14 Other
Further Information
Statistics Canada www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-520-x/00105/4095252-eng.htm www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/reference/
consultation/92-135/education.cfm BC Stats – Population Statistics
www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/DATA/pop/popstart.asp Baragar Demographics
www.baragar.com David K. Foot – author, ‘Boom-Bust-Echo’
www.footwork.com