Date post: | 16-Dec-2014 |
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Complexity, Scarcity and the School of the Future
Issues in the world are getting more complex
What are issues of complexity? Cause and effect Variables Permutations Ripple/butterfly wing effect
Natural resource scarcity
US debt crisis
EURO debt crisis
Permanent austerity the way forward? And scarcity driving innovation Originally refers to “retrenchment” of the
social welfare system (Pierson 1999) Are world governments heading towards
permanent austerity? Why? Global economic crisis – Ireland, Greece, Spain Ageing population In welfare states e.g. Nordic countries, inability to
deliver on promises How does this impact on education policy?
Government Policy Policy formulation is set in increasingly
complex settings Black swans (Taleb 2007) – incidents of
low probability or no probability but high impact
Weak signals Don’t have all the answers Planning 25-30 years ahead - strategic
planning
Government PolicyTools and government departments Scenario planning – all agencies Horizon scanning – Security secretariat Futures/ futurology – PSD/PMO and strategic
departments in agencies–Whole of government (WOG) Alvin and Heidi Toffler “Future Shock” 1970 Popularise “information overload” Predicted that people may not be able to cope with rapid
industrial and technological changes
Scenario planning and futures Scenario 1: continued prosperity – status quo Scenario 2: permanent austerity (greater
accountability of fiscal budget); lack of resources (non-renewable and others)
Scenario 2: permanent austerity Greater leverage on ICT because brick and mortar schools are
expensive Moore’s law on technology getting cheaper with time and
ICT becomes very mobile Teachers and students learn from home - telecommuting to
save cost Interaction with other children and with teachers at a
localised community level say with a 10 block radius A school without a building - administrative work done
online and classes conducted at places of interest say a museum for social studies
References Pierson P., 2001, “The new politics of the
welfare state”, Oxford University Press Toffler A., 1970 “Future Shock”, Batam Press Taleb, N., 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact
of the Highly Improbable, Random House