Science approach and relevance to farmers...Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program ....

ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program Science approach and relevance to farmers

Senthold Asseng and David BowranScience Coordinator for ARWA’s Climate Adaptation ProgramCSIRO Climate Adaption Flagship, DAFWA

CSIRO

Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program

Western Australian mixed farming wheat-belt

Esperance

Northam

xx

xxxx Wongan Hills

Geraldton

Perth

350 300

350300

450

450

100 km

rainfalltemperature

20 million ha

750

750

The State’s $12 billion agri-food sector is vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on climatic factors


CO2

lighttemperaturerainfall

Climate & agriculture

• communities• infrastructure


A p r i l t o O c t o b e r r a in f a l l ( m m )

1 9 0 0 1 9 1 0 1 9 2 0 1 9 3 0 1 9 4 0 1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0

R a in f a l l ( m m )

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

April –

October rainfall (mm)

Rainfall1960-2008 (mm/10yrs)

BoM

Western Australia

Rainfall change

10-20% loss of seasonal rainfall

Global climate change is already impacting on WA’s climate


Rainfall –

regional and temporal change


% Change in monthly rainfall 1976% Change in monthly rainfall 1976--2008 v 19112008 v 1911--19751975July AugustJune

D. Stephens and C Denby, 2009


1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 203019

20

21

22

23

Maximum Temperature (oC)

(Average May –

October)

Year

Temperature

Temperature

change

+0.8 oC

1960-2008 (oC/10yrs)



Future changes and potential impacts

Future changes

↓

rainfall (↑

drought periods)

↑

temperature (↑

heat events, ↓↑

frost)

↑

CO2

• less crop & pasture growth• less ground cover &

more erosion risk • less waterlogging• less nutrient leaching• less dry-land salinity

• less crop & pasture growth• heat stress -

livestock • new pest & diseases• change plant phenology

• better growth!• conserve water

Future impacts


Continuous improvements in yields

DAFWAYears

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Average wheat yield (t/ha)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Western Australia

“Research is the key to unlocking productivity growth in the face of climate change” Burke


The CAP Goal

Enterprise

Region

StateGreateradaptive capacity

&resilience

toclimate change

CAP will deliver information, knowledge and toolsto manage the risks

& capture the opportunities

a changing climate will present to rural industries and communities in southern Western Australia.


CAP = the Program with the capacity to assist “Greater adaptive capacity & resilience of WA’s agriculture to climate change”

Climate information & projections

Impacts

Managing risk &capturing opportunities

Education, training & communication

biosecuritymanaging

climatevariability

newfarmingsystems

criticalevents

hydrology&

nutrients

past climatepast farms

erosion

pathways toadoption

trade-offs &other drivers

future crops& pastures

crops&

pastures

FarmReady

FarmReady


National & International research

CAP relationships

Science Policy

Industry

NCCARF

DAFFCfoC

GRDC

VCCAP SARDI-CCDEC

DoW

CAP

WAFF

IOCI

CSIRO Climate

AdaptationFlagship


Questions?

What is the impact of climate

change on agriculture in WA?

What are the risks & opportunities?

Will farmers/industry be able to

adapt? What is needed to adapt?

What is the impact of adaptation?

CO2

lighttemperaturerainfall


First results:

Farming systems -

fallow


Farming systems -

fallow

Yvette Oliver & Michael Robertson, CSIROCameron Weeks, Plan FarmCaroline Peek & Rob Grima, DAFWA

Last 10 years

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2007200620052004200320022001200019991998

YunaMullewaPerenjori

Year

Yield benefit from fallow (Good loam) (t/ha)



Farming systems -

fallow

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2007200620052004200320022001200019991998


Year

Yield benefit from fellow (Good loam) (t/ha)

Last 10 years



0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1997199619951994199319921991199019891988

Yiel

d di

ffere

nce

from

WW

rota

tion

(t/h

a)


Year

“wet”

nineties

Yield benefit from fallow (Good loam) (t/ha)

Farming systems -

fallow

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2007200620052004200320022001200019991998


Year

Yield benefit from fellow (Good loam) (t/ha)

Last 10 years


First results:

Managing seasonal rainfall variability


Value of POAMA seasonal rainfall forecast

Longitude

Latit

ude

110°E 115°E 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E 155°E45°S

40°S

35°S

30°S

25°S

20°S

15°S

10°S

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent correct

in 2 categories for May-Oct rainfall from forecasts starting on 1 May.

78% 71%Katanning

Mullewa

Nyabing

57%0$>50$/ha

… for N fertiliser decisions

Together with Ian Foster, DAFWA, Peter McIntosh, CSIRO, Oscar Alves and Guomin Wang, BoM


First results:

Future regional scenarios


Together with A. Dray, P. Perez, ANU, S. Charles, B. Bates, CSIRO

Embracing Uncertainty: Rainfall input data

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

200

300

400

500

600

700

2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

possible scenario

range

average scenario


Future regional scenarios (Katanning)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

Katanning Regional income (M$)

Year

Together with A. Dray, P. Perez, ANU, S. Charles, B. Bates, CSIRO

possible scenario

range

average scenario

including CO2

and technology


ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program

-

capacity to:

deliver science for the benefits of WA’s agriculture

…though a continuous engagement with: • ARWA partners

• farmers, farmer groups, catchment councils

• state/fed government

• national & international linkages

CSIRO

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Science approach and relevance to farmers...Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program ....

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