www.iihs.org

Science, the Haddon Matrix and Adventures in Highway Safety

“Injury Prevention Works!” Seminars Johns Hopkins University

Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, MD ● September 9, 2013

Adrian Lund, Ph.D., President

www.iihs.org

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,

founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational

organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and

property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.

The Highway Loss Data Institute,

founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through scientific

studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses

resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles

and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.

Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.

www.iihs.org

Where are we? Location of IIHS/HLDI and Vehicle Research Center

Washington, DC

Virginia

Charlottesville

Arlington

Virginia

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

Institute activities

• Priority 1 – objective research on policy options to reduce injuries

and property damage from motor vehicle crashes

• Priority 2 – effective communications to make research

information attractive to news media

– News releases (TV, print, Internet)

– Films

– Testimony at state and federal legislative and regulatory hearings

– Briefings of other stakeholders, including vehicle manufacturers

• IIHS and HLDI rely on aggressive research and communications

to empower people and policymakers with objective information

We do not lobby, legislate, or litigate

www.iihs.org

1959 Chevrolet Bel Air and 2009 Chevrolet Malibu

www.iihs.org

50th Anniversary crash test 1959 Bel Air vs. 2009 Malibu

www.iihs.org

1959 Chevrolet Bel Air and 2009 Chevrolet Malibu

www.iihs.org

0

20

40

60

80

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10

Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950-2011

motor vehicle deaths

deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled

11.0 per billion

32,367

www.iihs.org

Progress made possible by scientific analysis The critical contribution of William Haddon to highway safety

• Public health goal is to prevent injuries

• Injuries are caused by the acquisition or loss of kinetic energy at

rates too high for the body to tolerate

• Ubiquity of an antecedent condition in crashes – for example,

driver error – does not mean that condition is the best target for

intervention

– The intervention must be a practical one that has demonstrable

benefits in preventing injuries

– Analogous to drug interventions: knowing that cholesterol is

associated with cardiovascular events and that a drug controls

cholesterol does not make that drug an effective treatment unless the

drug reduces cardiovascular events

– Driver education, aimed at driver error, has been ineffective

www.iihs.org

Real world crash examples Caused by driver error

• A pickup truck hit a sedan

head-on in upstate New

York shortly after

9 PM on April 13, 2012.

• The vehicle took a road

curve faster than the

posted 35 mph

recommendation.

Source: Buffalo (NY) News / April 17, 2012

www.iihs.org

Real world crash examples Caused by vehicle malfunction

• On April 17, 2013 a semi truck

rear-ended a car during a snow

squall on I-75 in Michigan.

• Upon inspection of the semi’s eight

axles, four were found to not work

and two were badly adjusted.

• The driver also had five safety

citations, including multiple

speeding tickets and tailgating.

Source: The Detroit (MI) News / April 17, 2013

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Real world crash examples Caused by road conditions

• A Jeep slid on an icy road and

crashed into a construction

truck on March 19 in Michigan.

• The occupants of both vehicles

were wearing seatbelts.

Source: Grand Rapid (MI) Press / March 20, 2013

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

What happened in this crash?

• Red light running

• High speed of crossing traffic (with pedestrian present)

• Elderly driver

• Pedestrian crossing against the light

• Alcohol impaired driving (the pedestrian has a suspended license)

www.iihs.org

crash phase

changes in… before during after losses

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints use

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol •injuries

•deaths

•economic

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints effect

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

•damage

•repairability

environment

•intersections design

•trouble spots treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

•economic

•fuel economy

crash phase

changes in… before during after

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints (use)

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints (effect)

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

environment

•roundabouts

•trouble-spot treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

Haddon matrix Recognizing opportunities to make a difference

www.iihs.org

crash phase

changes in… before during after losses

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints use

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol •injuries

•deaths

•economic

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints effect

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

•damage

•repairability

environment

•intersections design

•trouble spots treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

•economic

•fuel economy

crash phase

changes in… before during after

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints (use)

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints (effect)

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

environment

•roundabouts

•trouble-spot treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

Graduated licensing

www.iihs.org

Passenger vehicle driver crash rates Per mile traveled, by driver age, 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

16 17 18 19 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85+

all police-reported crashes per million miles traveled

fatal crashes per 100 million miles traveled

driver age

www.iihs.org

0

10

20

30

40

50

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Fatal crashes per 100,000 people in the U.S. Passenger vehicle drivers, by driver age, 1996-2011

-72%

-62%

-58%

-45%

-36%

www.iihs.org

number of states + DC

1995 2013

minimum learner’s age 16 or older 8 8 & DC

learner’s permit for at least 6 months 0 46 & DC

30 or more hours of certified driving 0 40 & DC

minimum intermediate licensing age 16, 6 or older 2 9 & DC

night driving restriction once licensed 9 49 & DC

passenger restriction once licensed 0 44 & DC

Licensing requirements in 1995 vs. 2013 September 2013

www.iihs.org

Percent reduction in U.S. teenagers’ crash rates By graduated licensing component

0 5 10 15 20

20 or more hours of practice driving

teen passengers limited to 0 or 1

9 p.m. driving restriction

1-year delay in license age

1-year delay in permit age

fatal crashes per population, 15-17-year-old drivers

collision claim frequencies, 16-17-year-old drivers

www.iihs.org

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crash phase

changes in… before during after losses

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints use

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol •injuries

•deaths

•economic

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints effect

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

•damage

•repairability

environment

•roundabouts

•trouble spots treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

•economic

•fuel economy

crash phase

changes in… before during after

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints (use)

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints (effect)

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

environment

•roundabouts

•trouble-spot treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

Roundabouts

www.iihs.org

stop sign 34%

other 6%

no traffic control 28%

7,707 deaths at intersections in 2010 Distribution by type of traffic control

red light

running

crash

deaths

9%

signal light

32%

www.iihs.org

Roundabouts are circular intersections with design features that eliminate the need for stop signs or traffic signals

www.iihs.org

Conversion of stop sign and traffic signal intersections to roundabouts:

• 40% reduction in all crashes

• 80% reduction in injury crashes

• 90% reduction in fatal & incapacitating injury crashes

www.iihs.org

If 10 percent of signalized intersections in the United States were converted to roundabouts

• Approximately 43,000 crashes prevented in 2011 including:

– 170 fatal crashes

– 28,000 injury crashes

• Vehicle delays reduced by more than 900 million hours

• Fuel consumption reduced by more than 600 million gallons

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

Percent of residents who favor roundabouts Before and after construction

0

20

40

60

80

before 6 weeks after 1-5 years after

www.iihs.org

Progress in building roundabouts September 2013

MD

DE

DC

MA

OR

RI NJ

NH

ME

PA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

OH

MI

IN IL

WI

IA

MO

LA

NM

CO

SD

ID

CA

WA

TN

VT

MS

MT ND

NV

AZ

UT

WY

NE

KS

OK

TX

AR

MN

AL

KY VA

NY

CT

AK

HI

50 or more

10-49

fewer than 10

www.iihs.org

crash phase

changes in… before during after losses

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints use

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol •injuries

•deaths

•economic

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints effect

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

•damage

•repairability

environment

•intersections design

•trouble spots treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

•economic

•fuel economy

crash phase

changes in… before during after

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints (use)

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints (effect)

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

environment

•roundabouts

•trouble-spot treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

Red light cameras

www.iihs.org

In 2011 on US roads, about 150,000 red-light-running

crashes caused about 118,000 injuries and about

700 deaths.

www.iihs.org

red light running driver 34%

12% passengers in

red light running vehicles

occupants of vehicles that didn’t

run light 48%

pedestrian, bicyclist, other

6%

714 deaths in red light running crashes in 2011 Distribution by type of road user

www.iihs.org

This photo was taken by a red light camera more

than 7 seconds after the light turned red. The red

car entered the intersection going

55 mph.

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Percent difference in actual fatal crash rates during 2004-08 in 14 large cities with red light cameras vs. expected rates without cameras

-30

-20

-10

0

red light running fatal crashes

fatal crashes at intersections with signal lights

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

Percent who favor using red light cameras Telephone survey in 14 cities with red light cameras, 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

www.iihs.org

US communities with red light cameras 1992-2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

www.iihs.org

Red light cameras are sometimes criticized for enforcing right-turn-on red rules. However, stop-before- turning rules are meant to protect pedestrians from drivers who might otherwise be looking left for oncoming traffic when pedestrians enter the road from the right.

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

Improvements in driver attention and performance may not require new technology Red light cameras already are making drivers pay more attention at intersections

www.iihs.org

crash phase

changes in… before during after losses

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints use

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol •injuries

•deaths

•economic

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints effect

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

•damage

•repairability

environment

•intersections design

•trouble spots treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

•economic

•fuel economy

Vehicle crashworthiness

crash phase

changes in… before during after

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints (use)

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints (effect)

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

environment

•roundabouts

•trouble-spot treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

www.iihs.org

rollover 22%

Passenger vehicle occupant deaths By point of principal impact, 2011

frontal impact 41%

side impact 25% rear impact

4%

Other/ Unknown

9%

32,367 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2011. 21,347 deaths were

occupants of passenger vehicles, and

most of them died in front or side impacts.

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

Fatality risk in real-world crashes Percent driver fatality risk reduction in head-on crashes,

by IIHS crash test rating

The risk of death is much lower in vehicles rated

good based on IIHS tests, compared with vehicles

rated poor.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

46% lower fatality risk in vehicles rated good than in vehicles rated poor

33% lower fatality risk in vehicles rated acceptable or marginal than in vehicles rated poor

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

Fatality risk in side impacts Estimated percent reductions in driver fatality risks in vehicles with

side airbags, 2000-04

IIHS research shows side airbags save lives.

In real-world side impacts, driver fatality risk is 37%

lower in cars and 52% lower in SUVs with side

airbags with head protection, compared

with similar vehicles without this protection.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

torso only head protection + torso

cars

SUVs

www.iihs.org

Percent change in driver death risk in left side impacts

Adjusted for age, gender, vehicle type and curb weight, 2000-09

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

good vs. poor acceptable vs. poor marginal vs. poor

Good performance in the IIHS side crash test

results in strong reductions in driver’s risk

of death in side impact crashes. These benefits go

beyond the addition of side airbags.

Rating recalculated without data from passenger dummy.

Restricted to vehicles with standard head and torso side airbags.

www.iihs.org

0

10

20

30

40

fatal or incapacitating

injury fatality ejection

fatal or incapacitating

injury

fatal or incapacitating

injury

small cars

midsize SUVs

Estimated effects of increasing SWR by one unit Percent change in risk

all drivers non-ejected drivers

drivers with coded belt use

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A new crash test for consumer information Frontal small overlap

www.iihs.org

small overlap 24%

moderate overlap

24% center 19%

underride 14%

low severity 11%

full width 6%

override 2%

Serious injuries in frontal crashes, by configuration

www.iihs.org

Overhead video small overlap test (car-to-car and car-to-barrier)

www.iihs.org

Small car small overlap ratings

changed for small overlap test

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www.iihs.org

crash phase

changes in… before during after losses

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints use

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol •injuries

•deaths

•economic

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints effect

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

•damage

•repairability

environment

•intersections design

•trouble spots treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

•economic

•fuel economy

Driver assistance systems and vehicle electronic control

crash phase

changes in… before during after

people

•licensing (GDL, elderly)

•impaired driving laws

•camera enforcement

•restraints (use)

•helmets

•speed cameras

•alcohol

vehicles

•driver assistance

•daytime running lights

•electronic control

•restraints (effect)

•vehicle structure

•bumpers

•crash

notification

•fuel systems

environment

•roundabouts

•trouble-spot treatment

•rumble strips

•roundabouts

•breakaway poles

•crash cushions

•emergency

medicine

www.iihs.org

Front crash prevention systems are living up to expectations

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

0

2

4

6

8

10

PDL claim frequencies for 2010-12 Volvo XC60 with City Safety vs. other 2009-12 midsize luxury SUVs

Calendar years 2009-12

www.iihs.org

Volvo City Safety updated results – April 2013

XC60 vs. other

midsize luxury SUVs

claim

frequency

claim

severity

overall

losses

property damage liability -16.0% -14.6% -13.1% -$89 -$42 $4 -$17 -$15 -$12

bodily injury -37.6% -33.3% -28.7%

collision -21.1% -20.2% -19.3% -$512 -$450 -$389 -$98 -$92 -$86

S60 vs. other midsize

4-door luxury cars

claim

frequency

claim

severity

overall

losses

property damage liability -19.5% -16.3% -12.9% $257 $373 $486 -$8 -$4 $0

bodily injury -30.4% -18.2% -3.8%

collision -10.7% -8.7% -6.6% -$802 -$668 -$537 -$92 -$79 -$66

www.iihs.org

Property damage liability claim frequency for forward collision warning systems By manufacturer

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

without autobrake with autobrake

Acura

Volvo (w/ LDW)

Mercedes Benz

www.iihs.org

Bodily injury liability claim frequency for forward collision warning systems By manufacturer

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

without autobrake with autobrake

Acura

Volvo (w/ LDW)

Mercedes Benz

www.iihs.org

Lane departure warning is not living up to expectations

www.iihs.org

www.iihs.org

Lane departure warning is not reducing crash claims

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Buick Mercedes Volvo

Collision

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

Buick (w/ Blindspot) Mercedes Volvo (w/ FCW)

PDL

www.iihs.org

Lane departure warning is not reducing injury claims

-35

-25

-15

-5

Buick Mercedes Volvo

Bodily injury

0

40

80

120

Buick (w/ Blindspot) Mercedes Volvo (w/ FCW)

MedPay

PIP

MedPay and PIP

www.iihs.org

Conclusion

• Motor vehicle crash injury prevention has been a success

• The problem remains large

– Further progress can and will be made by applying the principles laid out

by William Haddon

• The key is to always focus on the data

– What are the conditions under which injuries are occurring?

– What countermeasures reduce or prevent the injuries under those

conditions?

• Remember that the outsize contribution of driver behavior in crash

responsibility does not mean that changing the driver is an effective

way to reduce injuries

– Vehicles and the environment can be changed in ways to protect us from

ourselves, in some cases by changing our behavior when it matters

www.iihs.org

Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, and property damage on the highway