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Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan...

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Scientific Base for Determination of Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones in Croatia Nitrate Vulnerable Zones in Croatia CASEE CASEE - - Conference Conference The EU Strategy for the Danube region The EU Strategy for the Danube region with specific emphasis on with specific emphasis on Land and Water Management and the Environment Land and Water Management and the Environment April 28th April 28th 29th, 2011, St. Istvan University. G 29th, 2011, St. Istvan University. G ö ö d d ö ö ll ll ö ö . Hungary . Hungary Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Svetosimunska 25, 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Svetosimunska 25, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia, [email protected] [email protected] 2 University of Josip Juraj Strossmayer Faculty of Agriculture, 2 University of Josip Juraj Strossmayer Faculty of Agriculture, Trg Sv. Trojstva 3, 31000 Trg Sv. Trojstva 3, 31000 Osijek, Croatia Osijek, Croatia
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Page 1: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Scientific Base for Determination of Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones in CroatiaNitrate Vulnerable Zones in Croatia

CASEECASEE--ConferenceConference““The EU Strategy for the Danube region The EU Strategy for the Danube region –– with specific emphasis onwith specific emphasis onLand and Water Management and the EnvironmentLand and Water Management and the Environment””

April 28th April 28th –– 29th, 2011, St. Istvan University. G29th, 2011, St. Istvan University. Gööddööllllöö. Hungary. Hungary

Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1

1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Svetosimunska 25,1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Svetosimunska 25, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia, [email protected]@agr.hr2 University of Josip Juraj Strossmayer Faculty of Agriculture, 2 University of Josip Juraj Strossmayer Faculty of Agriculture, Trg Sv. Trojstva 3, 31000 Trg Sv. Trojstva 3, 31000 Osijek, CroatiaOsijek, Croatia

Page 2: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Starting pointStarting point

Land use map Land use map Groundwater vulnerability map, Groundwater vulnerability map, Data base from ground and surface Data base from ground and surface

water monitoring program water monitoring program –– to to present the density of monitoring present the density of monitoring points. points.

Page 3: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Starting pointStarting point

Consumption of mineral nitrogen Consumption of mineral nitrogen -- according to FAO database according to FAO database -- agricultural land agricultural land : :

–– according to the FAOSTAT database according to the FAOSTAT database –– CORINE Land Cover (CLC) database.CORINE Land Cover (CLC) database.

Page 4: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

QUESTION 1QUESTION 1

How agriculture influence water How agriculture influence water contamination with nitrogen?contamination with nitrogen?

Page 5: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

QUESTION 2QUESTION 2

Which kind of data and research Which kind of data and research programs do we need for the programs do we need for the estimation of agricultural influence estimation of agricultural influence on water contamination with on water contamination with nitrogen?nitrogen?

Page 6: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

QUESTION 3QUESTION 3

What can we do in order to What can we do in order to decrease agricultural influence on decrease agricultural influence on water contamination with water contamination with nitrogen?nitrogen?

Page 7: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Land Land use use mapmap

Page 8: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Agricultural area, Arable land and Agricultural area, Arable land and Permanent crops, Croatia, 1992Permanent crops, Croatia, 1992--20082008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1992. 1993. 1994. 1995. 1996. 1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008.

Agricultural area (1000 ha) - 1992 - 2001

Agricultural area (1000 ha) - 1996 - 2008

Arable land and Permanent crops (1000 ha) - 1992- 2001

Arable land and Permanent crops (1000 ha) - 1996- 2008

Page 9: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

GroundGroundwater water

vulneravulnerability bility mapmap

Page 10: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Map of Map of piezometers piezometers

and and meteorologimeteorological stationscal stations

Page 11: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Fertilizer use in Croatia, Fertilizer use in Croatia, 19681968--2005.2005.

y = 55,133x3 - 4493,8x2 + 96324x + 164366

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1968

. 19

70.

1972

. 19

74.

1976

. 19

78.

1980

. 19

82.

1984

. 19

86.

1988

. 19

90.

1992

. 19

94.

1996

. 19

98.

2000

. 20

02.

2004

.M

iner

al fe

rtili

zer c

onsu

mpt

ion,

t

Page 12: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

World mineral N consumptionWorld mineral N consumption

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

10000019

61/6

2

1963

/64

1965

/66

1967

/68

1969

/70

1971

/72

1973

/74

1975

/76

1977

/78

1979

/80

1981

/82

1983

/84

1985

/86

1987

/88

1989

/90

1991

/92

1993

/94

1995

/96

1997

/98

1999

/00

2001

/02

2003

/04

2005

/06

Total straight NTotal N

Page 13: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Wheat production in CroatiaWheat production in Croatia

Area under wheat and yields of wheat, Croatia, 1885-2002.

y = -2,2859x3 + 441,92x2 - 14308x + 332980R2 = 0,7403

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

1885

.

1900

.

1910

.

1920

.

1930

.

1940

.

1950

.

1960

.

1970

.

1980

.

1990

.

2000

.

Year

Are

a, h

a, P

rodu

ctio

n, t

Area under wheat, ha

Wheat production, t

Poly. (Wheatproduction, t)

Page 14: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Water indicator Agricultural activity Collection place

Use of plant nutrient (N+P)

The use of agricultural land, Consumption of mineral fertilizers, Content of N and P in mineral

fertilizers, Organic fertilizers Application per hectare, quantity, time and method of

application

Recorded at farms, counties, basins

Concentration of N and P in rivers

Assessment of agricultural ratio as a source of dispersed pollution By the monitoring plan

Nitrogen load

The use of agricultural land, Consumption of mineral fertilizers, Content of N in mineral

fertilizers, Production and application of organic fertilizers by livestock type and manure

management, Content of N in organic fertilizers. Application per hectare, quantity, time and

method of application. Crop yield, N balance,

Calculation model using the specific data from perennial field research and relevant

base data

Phosphorus load

The use of agricultural land, Consumption of mineral fertilizers, Content of P in mineral

fertilizers, Production and application of organic fertilizers by livestock type and manure

management, Content of P in organic fertilizers.

Calculation model using the specific data from perennial field research and relevant

base data

Concentration of nitrate in ground water

Assessment of agricultural ratio as a source of diffuse pollution

By the monitoring plan, especially for vulnerable

areas

Page 15: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

According to BEHRENDT et al.According to BEHRENDT et al.

http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=17369330cpsidt=17369330

A change of the total emissions from A change of the total emissions from 393 kt a393 kt a--1 N in the 1950s to a 1 N in the 1950s to a maximum of 923 kt amaximum of 923 kt a--1 N in the mid 1 N in the mid 1980s and a recent value of about 756 1980s and a recent value of about 756 kt akt a--1 N were estimated for the total 1 N were estimated for the total Danube Basin.Danube Basin.

Page 16: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

According to BEHRENDT et al.According to BEHRENDT et al.

It can be concluded that the present It can be concluded that the present load of dissolved inorganic nitrogen load of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and total nitrogen (TN) of the (DIN) and total nitrogen (TN) of the Danube into the Black Sea is about 1.9 Danube into the Black Sea is about 1.9 times higher than in the 1950s. times higher than in the 1950s.

The maximum DIN load (1980) was The maximum DIN load (1980) was 2.2 times higher than in the 1950s.2.2 times higher than in the 1950s.

Page 17: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Contribution of Contribution of Agriculture?Agriculture?

Do we have enough information?Do we have enough information? Do we have specific research Do we have specific research

programs?programs?

Page 18: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

Nitrogen application Nitrogen application –– good, bad good, bad and necessaryand necessary

Page 19: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

ConclusionConclusionss

According to FAO the consumption of According to FAO the consumption of nitrogen from mineral fertilizers in Croatia nitrogen from mineral fertilizers in Croatia from 1992 to 2001 ranged from 30 to 56 kg from 1992 to 2001 ranged from 30 to 56 kg N haN ha--11 to agricultural land or from 60 to 105 to agricultural land or from 60 to 105 kg N hakg N ha--11 to arable landto arable land

FFrom 1996 to 2008 ranged from 46 to 133 rom 1996 to 2008 ranged from 46 to 133 kg N hakg N ha--11 to agricultural land or from 78 to to agricultural land or from 78 to 181 kg N ha181 kg N ha--11 to arable land. to arable land.

Page 20: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

ConclusionConclusionss

Apart from quantity of applied Apart from quantity of applied nitrogen fertilizers on agricultural nitrogen fertilizers on agricultural farms in Croatia more attention should farms in Croatia more attention should be dedicated to the be dedicated to the application application techniques and their timing as well as techniques and their timing as well as the relevant education of farmersthe relevant education of farmersreferring to the use of most efficiently referring to the use of most efficiently nitrogen fertilization. nitrogen fertilization.

Page 21: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

ConclusionConclusionss

According to available data and According to available data and presented maps, presented maps, extra efforts should extra efforts should be undertaken to objectively define be undertaken to objectively define the causes and sources of pollution of the causes and sources of pollution of surface and ground watersurface and ground water before final before final determination of vulnerable areas in determination of vulnerable areas in CroatiaCroatia..

Page 22: Scientific Base for Determination of Nitrate Vulnerable ... · Milan Mesic1, Davor Romic1, Stjepan Husnjak1, Zdenko Loncaric2, Milan Poljak1 1 University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture,

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!


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