Patricia Mohr (416) 866-4210 [email protected]Global Economics Scotiabank Commodity Price Index Scotiabank Commodity Price Index is available on: www.scotiabank.com, Bloomberg at SCOT and Reuters at SM1C Scotiabank Economics Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West, 63rd Floor Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1 Tel: (416) 866-6253 Fax: (416) 866-2829 Email: [email protected]This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. S cotiabank’s Commodity Price Index declined by a sharp -5.8% m/m in November and is currently -10.4% below a year earlier. While commodity prices lost ground in 2013 — partly due to disappointingly slow global growth (2.9% in 2013, down from 3.2% in 2012) — signs point to a bottoming in 2014 and a return of the ‘Bull-Run’ in the second half of the decade. Zinc is a Top ‘Pick’ for early investors. Lumber should post another solid advance in 2014, with a 19% yr/yr gain expected in Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 prices. Forest Products posted the strongest advance of any commodity sector in 2013 (+2.2% m/m in November and +5.6% yr/yr). Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 lumber prices in the B.C. Interior — the bellwether for North America — averaged US$356 per mfbm in 2013 — an 18.9% gain over the US$299 of 2012 — the fourth-best performing commodity within the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. While lumber prices edged down seasonally from US$381 in November to US$355 in mid-December, prices will bounce back in early 2014, as buyers restock inventories ahead of the spring building season. U.S. housing starts jumped to 1.091 million units annualized in November (the highest since February 2008) and should climb to 1.15-1.20 million in 2014, lifting lumber prices to US$390 next year (about US$425 late-year). The beginning of a U.S. housing start recovery in the Fall of 2012 hit a wall of limited North American supplies (given the equivalent of 104 mill shutdowns in Canada and the United States in the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2008). While China’s price-sensitive buying may slow next year, the demand on North American mill capacity (both idled and operating) should increase from 77% to 80% in 2014 — giving mills considerable pricing leverage. Current lumber prices of US$355 yield an average profit margin for B.C. Interior mills of at least 16% over full ‘breakeven costs’ (including depreciation). Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index — Year-End Review & Outlook For 2014 Top ‘Picks’ for investors in 2014 — Zinc, Lumber & Condensates-NGLs. Oil Pipelines are vital for a prosperous Canadian economy; the NEB will release its report today on the Northern Gateway Pipeline, key for ‘Oil Market Access’ to Asia/Pacific. B.C. LNG projects have logistical cost advantage to northern Asia, but Infrastructure cost- containment will be key. December 19, 2013 Best Wishes for the Holiday Season! Commodity Price ‘Sweepstakes’ 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 US$ per mfbm Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 Lumber Prices + Peak US$460 Aug 27, 2004 + December 13, 2013: US$355. Shaded area denotes U.S. recession period. U.S. Housing Starts: 2012 783,000; 2013e 925,000; 2014F 1.15 - 1.20 million units. Lumber Strength Will Continue In 2014 1) Propane @ Edmonton & Sarnia 77.4% 2) Atlantic Lobster 43.6% 3) NYMEX Natural Gas 30.0% 4) Lumber + Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4s 18.9% 5) Pacific Salmon 16.3% 6) NBSK Pulp 13.7% 7) Cobalt 13.4% 8) WTI Oil 11.4% 9) Kraft Linerboard 7.2% 10) Spot Iron Ore 7.0% * 32 commodities covered in the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. 11) Palladium 6.0%. + Average 2013/Average 2012. Uranium (turnaround story) (yr end/yr end) Mid-decade: Top Ten Performing Commodities in 2013* Zinc Condensates/NGLs (diluent for bitumen) Lumber (% price increase Dec 14' 12 to Dec 13' 13) Picks for 2014
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.
S cotiabank’s Commodity Price Index declined by a sharp -5.8% m/m in November and is currently -10.4% below a
year earlier. While commodity prices lost ground in 2013 — partly due to disappointingly slow global growth (2.9% in 2013, down from 3.2% in 2012) — signs point to a bottoming in 2014 and a return of the ‘Bull-Run’ in the second half of the decade. Zinc is a Top ‘Pick’ for early investors. Lumber should post another solid advance in 2014, with a 19% yr/yr gain expected in Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 prices.
Forest Products posted the strongest advance of any commodity sector in 2013 (+2.2% m/m in November and +5.6% yr/yr). Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 lumber prices in the B.C. Interior — the bellwether for North America — averaged US$356 per mfbm in 2013 — an 18.9% gain over the US$299 of 2012 — the fourth-best performing commodity within the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. While lumber prices edged down seasonally from US$381 in November to US$355 in mid-December, prices will bounce back in early 2014, as buyers restock inventories ahead of the spring building season. U.S. housing starts jumped to 1.091 million units annualized in November (the highest since February 2008) and should climb to 1.15-1.20 million in 2014, lifting lumber prices to US$390 next year (about US$425 late-year).
The beginning of a U.S. housing start recovery in the Fall of 2012 hit a wall of limited North American supplies (given the equivalent of 104 mill shutdowns in Canada and the United States in the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2008). While China’s price-sensitive buying may slow next year, the demand on North American mill capacity (both idled and operating) should increase from 77% to 80% in 2014 — giving mills considerable pricing leverage. Current lumber prices of US$355 yield an average profit margin for B.C. Interior mills of at least 16% over full ‘breakeven costs’ (including depreciation).
Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index — Year-End Review & Outlook For 2014
Top ‘Picks’ for investors in 2014 — Zinc, Lumber & Condensates-NGLs.
Oil Pipelines are vital for a prosperous Canadian economy; the NEB will release its report today on the Northern Gateway Pipeline, key for ‘Oil Market Access’ to Asia/Pacific.
B.C. LNG projects have logistical cost advantage to northern Asia, but Infrastructure cost-containment will be key.
December 19, 2013
Best Wishes for the Holiday Season!
Commodity Price ‘Sweepstakes’
0
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02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
US$ per mfbm
Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 Lumber Prices
+
Peak US$460 Aug 27, 2004
+ December 13, 2013: US$355.Shaded area denotes U.S. recession period.U.S. Housing Starts: 2012 783,000; 2013e 925,000; 2014F 1.15 - 1.20 million units.
* 32 commodities covered in the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. 11) Palladium 6.0%. + Average 2013/Average 2012.
Uranium(turnaround story)
(yr end/yr end)
Mid-decade:
Top Ten PerformingCommodities in 2013*
Zinc
Condensates/NGLs(diluent for bitumen)
Lumber
(% price increase Dec 14' 12 to Dec 13' 13)
Picks for 2014
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Global Economics
Scotiabank Commodity Price Index
December 19, 2013
NBSK pulp prices — at US$990 per tonne in December (a 28-month high) — have also performed well in 2013 amid strong Chinese demand and limited ‘softwood’ supplies. However, prices may drift down for a time in mid-2014, as huge capacity expansion in eucalyptus ‘hardwood’ pulp in Uruguay and Brazil is ramped up.
After strengthening through mid-2013 — on narrower discounts on Western Canadian Select heavy oil off WTI and slightly stronger Canadian natural gas export prices — the Oil & Gas Index has lost ground in recent months (-12.9% m/m in November and -9.9% yr/yr). The discount on WCS heavy oil has widened to an enormous US$39.13 per barrel in December, with a buyers’ market returning in the United States alongside seasonal U.S. refinery maintenance and pipeline allocation to the U.S. Midwest. A wider discount on Edmonton ‘light oil’ prices off WTI has also emerged — US$16.45 per barrel in November and over US$20 in December — up from US$6-7 in 2012 and 2013:H1. This reflects rapidly growing supplies of U.S. ‘light, tight’ oil from the Eagle Ford & Permian Basins as well as the North Dakota Bakken, altering North American supply & demand conditions for ‘light’ oil (+800,000 b/d yr/yr in December 2013). There is a critical need to build additional oil export pipeline capability, enabling Western Canada to diversify its oil markets away from the United States to Asia/Pacific & India as well as Eastern Canada.
On a more positive note, propane prices in Edmonton and Sarnia surged in late 2013 (+77.4% yr/yr) — to take the ‘Top Spot’ in the ‘commodity price sweepstakes’ for 2013. Prices have rallied from severely depressed levels in 2012 alongside strong petrochemical & heating oil demand and steadily rising offshore exports from the USGC, tightening North American supplies. By 2015, Enterprise Products Partners will construct a new LPG export terminal as well as expand an existing one on the Houston Ship Channel.
Unusually cold winter weather boosted NYMEX natural gas futures to the US$4.35 per mmbtu mark in mid-December — a 30% gain over US$3.35 a year ago — surprisingly, the third-best performance of any commodity. So far this heating season, U.S. winter weather has been 8.3% colder than normal, pulling U.S. gas-in-storage 7% below a year ago. While natural gas prices remain historically low (especially in Western Canada) — amid the North American ‘shale revolution’ — prices have slowly recovered from a mere US$1.91 in mid-April 2012.
The Metal and Mineral Index lost considerable momentum in 2013 (-1.8 % m/m in November & -16.3% yr/yr), as new mine supply in copper and nickel — committed to some time ago — came on stream in a lacklustre global economy. Potash prices were hurt by a random event, Uralkali’s exit from the BPC marketing arrangement and its decision to maximize sales volumes at the expense of prices. Uranium prices also stayed at a low ebb (currently US$34.50 per pound), with Japan’s 50 nuclear reactors still offline. Gold retreated on a stronger U.S. dollar and prospects for Fed tapering of its ‘asset purchase program’ (US$85 bn per month of longer-dated Treasuries & mortgage-backed securities); reaction to the Fed’s decision to begin tapering in December has been modest.
Nevertheless, copper remains one of the most lucrative of all commodities; current LME prices at US$3.28 per pound yield a profit margin of 30% over full breakeven costs (including depreciation). The ‘red metal’ is ending the year on a firm note — buoyed by optimism for a moderately stronger global economy in 2014; we expect 3.5% GDP growth. U.S. industrial production advanced by 3.2% yr/yr in November and the Purchasing Manager Index for Europe in December was the second-highest since mid-2011 (with strength in Germany). Zinc has only edged down in 2013 and is a ‘Top Pick’ for investors for the next several years.
Finally, the Agricultural Index eased by -1.1% m/m in November and has slipped -11.6% below a year ago. Grain & oil seed prices have unwound, given monster-sized crops on the Canadian Prairies and in the U.S.
Remarkable Grow th of U.S. ‘Light, T ight’ Oil Production
Data source: EIA, Scotiabank Economics.
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140
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140
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US$ per barrel
Brent
Light Louisiana
Sweet*
Knock-on Impact on Light Oil Prices in W. Canada
... As U.S. Supplies Climb
Edmonton Par Light
* Similar in quality to Brent. Data to December 2013.
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US$ per pound
LME Zinc Prices
Data to December 2013
Zinc prices could climb as high as US$1.50 in 2016/17
Zinc prices hold up relatively well in 2013
+
+ LME official cash settlement priceDec. 18, 2013: US$0.90.
Zinc — The Next Big Base Metal Play
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Bottom
NYMEX Natural Gas Prices
... Along with Cold Winter Weather
U.S. heating degreedays = 8.3% colder than normal in winter 2013
Data to December 18, 2013.
NYMEX Natural Gas Prices Climb Over US$4
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NYMEX Natural Gas Prices
Largely Oil-
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LNG Prices in Japan*
* Avg. LNG import price into Japan; Japan turned to imported LNG & oil when nuclear reactors were shut in 2011-12
*LNG prices delivered to Japan: peak at US$18.07 in July 2012, late October 2013 US$15.19. Source: LNG Japan Corporation.
LNG — An Opportunity For British Columbia
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Scotiabank Commodity Price Index
December 19, 2013
Midwest this Fall and generally favourable international crops. However, the fisheries on both the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts of Canada are benefitting from high lobster and salmon prices, given strong consumer demand and tighter supplies. While the Chilean salmon fishery has recovered, exports are high-priced, lifting values in the United States.
Northern Gateway Pipeline — Export Diversification Is Vital For ‘Light’ As Well As ‘Heavy Oil’ In Western Canada
The Joint Review Panel of the National Energy Board and the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency will release its report today on the Northern Gateway Pipeline, including the Panel’s recommendation to the federal government on whether it should be approved, setting out terms & conditions. The Panel’s mandate is broad and includes an assessment of environmental, engineering, economic, socio-economic and other public interest considerations. The Canadian Cabinet then has 180 days to make a final ruling (likely by July 2014). The Enbridge Northern Gateway Project — connecting Bruderheim, Alberta (near Edmonton) to Kitimat, B.C. — would provide 525,000 b/d of market access for Western Canada’s oil to the valuable markets of Asia/Pacific. While probably not in place until 2018, the pipeline would help to narrow recently wide ‘light’ as well as ‘heavy oil’ price discounts off WTI, which have been so costly for the Canadian economy.
The oil & gas industry is key to Canada’s economic prosperity, generating almost one-quarter of Canada’s merchandise trade exports in 2012 ($105.9 bn of a total $417.3 bn). Exports of crude oil & refined products alone were $95.3 bn or 22.3% of the total. Oil & gas accounts for 6.9% of real GDP across Canada (27% of Alberta GDP and almost 17% of Saskatchewan GDP) not including indirect impacts. The sector dominates Canadian business investment, accounting for one-quarter of the total.
In a separate development, the NEB has approved four more long-term export licences for LNG from the Northern Coast of B.C. (Prince Rupert LNG Exports, Pacific Northwest LNG, WCC LNG and Woodfibre LNG Exports). British Columbia has a transportation cost advantage to northern Asia (South Korea, Japan & Taiwan are the biggest markets) over U.S. Gulf Coast projects (the distance is less than half that from the USGC via the Panama Canal). However, competitiveness will depend upon containing the cost of ‘greenfield’ pipeline & other infrastructure development. USGC projects such as Sabine Pass are often ‘brownfield’ developments, benefitting from previously constructed infrastructure.
International LNG development has recently slowed due to a pricing dispute between large Asian buyers and sellers, with buyers wishing to shift from oil-indexed contracts to Henry Hub-based pricing, to take advantage of cheap natural gas in the United States. However, an examination of Henry Hub-based contracts indicates that LNG prices will, in any case, rise significantly later in the decade, with LNG volumes likely pulling up natural gas prices across North America.
Metals & Minerals: Tight Market Conditions Expected For Refined Zinc By 2015
LME zinc prices at US$0.90 per pound in mid-December are only slightly below year-earlier levels of US$0.93, with zinc holding up better than other base metals. A sizeable price arbitrage of more than US$200 per tonne has opened up between the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME, encouraging a 19% jump in Chinese imports through October 2013.
This reflects a world ‘deficit’ in refined zinc (consumption exceeds supply), though the ‘concentrate’ market is in ‘surplus’ — a surprising shift which occurred in 2012, as Chinese producers shut down smelters in view of low treatment charges on domestic and imported ‘concentrates’ and poor profitability. While China’s smelter output has rebounded moderately in 2013, smelter capacity utilization remains fairly low at 74% compared with 91% in the rest of the world. The global metal market balance is expected to remain in ‘deficit’ over the next 3-5 years, with implied stocks dwindling from a high 100 days of consumption in 2012 to 59 by 2015, lifting zinc prices to US$0.98 in 2014 and US$1.30-1.40 in 2015. While smelter treatment charges (TCs) will likely rise in
Scotiabank Commodity Price Index
November 2013Growth Trends
(per cent change)
Weights One One Three One Five
Month Month Months Year Years
All Commodity Price Index 100.0 -5.8 -51.2 -39.1 -10.4 1.7
Industrials 84.7 -6.7 -56.5 -43.1 -10.2 1.0
Oil & Gas 39.9 -12.9 -80.9 -65.6 -9.9 5.7
Metal & Minerals 30.1 -1.8 -19.3 -18.6 -16.3 -4.8
Forest Products 14.7 2.2 29.1 29.1 5.6 5.1
Agriculture 15.3 -1.1 -12.2 -12.9 -11.6 5.3
2012Oct Sept Aug Nov
All Commodity Price Index 140.4 145.4 149.7 147.7
Industrials 139.5 145.6 149.8 144.9
Oil & Gas 147.8 160.0 168.2 142.9
Metal & Minerals 135.7 137.7 140.3 159.3
Forest Products 124.7 122.7 119.5 120.7
Agriculture 145.7 144.1 149.3 163.1
(Compound Annual Growth Rates)
Index: January 2007 = 100
127.4
2013
144.2
Nov132.3
130.1
128.8
133.3
Re-designed Scotiabank Commodity Price Index: Net export weights in 2010, data re-estimated back through 2007, January 2007=100. The Canadian Wheat Board’s asking export price for CWRS No. 1 13.5% protein wheat del St. Lawrence has been replaced with Dark Northern Spring Wheat, 14% protein, del Duluth, Minnesota from April 2011 (Minneapolis Grain Exchange).
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Global Economics
Scotiabank Commodity Price Index
December 19, 2013
2013-15, higher metal prices should be an offset for ‘concentrate’ producers. The mid-decade increase in world output will be limited by unusually high mine depletion (Lisheen, Century). The changes announced by the LME to its warehousing system to lessen queues have had little impact on U.S. zinc premiums to date, which remain at 9-9.5 U.S. cents per pound.
Turning to copper, prices could slip towards the US$3 mark over the next 12-24 months, as the current wave of new mine supply continues. However, we have upwardly revised our price forecast for 2014 to US$3.15 per pound in view of this year’s stronger-than-expected demand growth in China (+12.5%). A shortage of scrap as well as robust demand in the auto (+13.5% YTD) and electrical equipment sectors has boosted cathode demand. China’s State Reserve Bureau may attempt to acquire a bigger buffer stock in 2014, with prices near a cyclical low. The net result, copper has flipped into ‘backwardation’ — a sign of market tightness. By the second half of the decade, it appears likely that copper prices will rebound strongly, given the strength of ‘emerging market’ demand and higher required incentive prices for new mine development. In 2012, vehicle ownership in China was a mere 81 compared with 794 per 1,000 people in the United States.
Spot potash prices (FOB Vancouver) have dropped from US$417.50 per pound in July to US$320 in November and even lower in December. It appears that a 2014:H1 price contract may be settled with China below the US$300 mark — likely a bottom. Prices are steadying in Brazil.
1 LME Base metals 2 London PM Fix 3 U.S. Northcentral region 4 Delivered to the Eastern U.S. * Revised from list to transactions prices. +FOB mill price including export tax for shipments to the United States.
1. A trade-weighted U.S. dollar-based index of principal Canadian exports.2. Index deflated by U.S. Producer Price Index for Intermediate Goods.– Shaded areas represent U.S. recession periods.
1. Dark Northern Spring, No. 1 14% at Duluth, Minnesota; before April 2011 Canadian Wheat Board asking export price #1 CWRS.2. Cash cattle and hogs at Toronto; from January 1993 average of Ontario markets.
U.S. dollars per tonne
Wheat1
Cattle2
Hogs2
U.S. dollars per cwt
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Global Economics December 19, 2013
This Index has been designed to track the spot or transactions prices paid in U.S. dollars for key Canadian commodities and resource-based manufactured goods in export markets. The weight of each component is based upon its net export value in 2010. Prior to January 2007, the weight of each component was based on its export value in 1995-97, except for crude oil & refined petroleum products, uncoated freesheet paper and linerboard, where net exports were used. Canada imports a significant quantity of these products, and use of their export value alone would have overstated the importance in Canada’s trade performance. The following prices are included:
OIL & GAS
Crude Oil & Refined Petroleum Products (US$ per bbl) since January 2007, Edmonton Par for light, sweet crude oil (MSW) and Western Canadian Select heavy oil at Hardisty, Alberta (WCS differentials off WTI near-by futures from TMX/Shorcan Energy Brokers).
Natural Gas (US$ per mcf) Average export price quoted by the National Energy Board.
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs – Propane, Butane, Ethane & Pentanes-Plus) (US$ per bbl), Propane at Edmonton & Sarnia.
METALS & MINERALS
Copper & Products (US$ per lb) LME official cash settlement price for grade A copper.
Zinc (US$ per lb) LME SHG cash settlement: prior to Sept 1990, U.S. producers’ price for high-grade zinc delivered.
Lead (US$ per lb) LME official cash settlement price; prior to Jan. 1991, U.S. producers’ price for common grade delivered.
Aluminium & Products (US$ per lb) since 1979, LME official cash settlement price.
Nickel (US$ per lb) since 1980, LME official cash settlement price.
Gold (US$ per oz) London PM Fix, 99.5 per cent purity.
Potash (US$ per tonne) Standard potassium chloride, spot price, FOB Vancouver.
Sulphur (US$ per tonne) Solid, spot price, FOB Vancouver.
Metallurgical Coal (US$ per tonne) Contract price for premium-grade hard coking coal, FOB Vancouver.
Iron Ore (US cents per dmtu) Spot price fines 62% Fe, CFR Qingdao, China; prior to Jan 2011, term-contract price for concentrates 66% Fe from Labrador/Quebec to Northern Europe (FOB Sept-Iles).
Uranium (US$ per lb) Spot price for U3O8.
Molybdenum (US$ per lb) since March 1992, MW dealer oxide.
Cobalt (US$ per lb) MW dealer price.
FOREST PRODUCTS
Lumber & Wood Products, Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 No.2 & Btr (US$ per mfbm) FOB mill.
Oriented Strandboard (US$ per thousand sq. ft.), U.S. North Central region, 7/16 inch.
Pulp, Bleached Northern Softwood Kraft (US$ per tonne) Transactions price, delivery USA.
Newsprint (US$ per tonne) Average transactions price, 48.8 gsm, delivery Eastern USA.
Groundwood Specialty Papers (US$ per ton) Supercalendered-A paper, 35 lb., delivery USA.
Linerboard (US$ per ton), delivery Eastern USA with zone discounts.
AGRICULTURE
Wheat & Flour (US$ per tonne), DNS No 1 14% protein Duluth, Minn; prior to April 2011 No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein at St. Lawrence.
Barley (US$ per tonne), since Dec.1994, No.1 at Lethbridge, Alberta.
Canola & Oilseeds (US$ per tonne) No.1 Canada, in store Vancouver.
Cattle & Beef (US$ per cwt) Steers over 1,051 pounds at Toronto; from Jan 1993, Ontario average.
Hogs & Pork (US$ per cwt) 100 Index Hogs at Toronto; from Jan 1993, Ontario average.
Fish & Seafood (US$ per lb) West Coast silver coho salmon; Atlantic lobster prices; prior to 1986 cod fillets & blocks.
Scotiabank Commodity Price Index
Scotiabank Commodity Price Index — Components And Weights
Index
Components
Oil & Gas Index 46,537 39.90Crude Oil & Refined Products 33,231 28.49Natural Gas & LNG 11,741 10.07NGLs 1,565 1.34
