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The Times Conference
Scotland and the Union: what future?
March 2nd 2012 Public Attitudes Towards Scotland’s
Constitutional Future
2 2 2 2 2 2
Support for
independence…
3
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Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Four in ten Scots voters support independence, but
half oppose it
37%
50%
13% Yes
No
Undecided
39%
50%
11% Yes
No
Undecided
All All who are certain to vote
Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
4
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Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Support for independence is higher among men, younger
people and those living in most deprived areas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Most deprived
areas
Least deprived
areas
Born in Scotland
Born elsewhere
%
Yes No
Base: All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
5
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Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Those who oppose independence are more likely to
have made their mind up
74%
26%
Definitely
decided
May change
mind
85%
15%
Definitely
decided
May change
mind
Support independence Oppose independence
Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
6
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here Support for independence – 35 year trend
Data collected by Ipsos MORI (previously MORI). Fieldwork conducted face-to-face or by telephone amongc1,000 Scottish adults per wave. Please note, data from 1999-2008 comes from the Scottish Social
Attitudes Survey, conducted face-to-face among c1200-1500 Scottish adults.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
en
ce
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
7
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When do you think the referendum should be held?
Almost half of Scots would like the referendum to
be held within the next 18 months
Base: All (1,005); All who would vote Yes (374); All who would vote No (499). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29
January 2012
47%
15%
22%
9%
2% 5%
All
Within next the 18 months
After summer 2013 but before Autumn 2014
Autumn 2014
After Autumn 2014
Never/shouldn't be held
Don't know
4%
4%
10%
9%
11%
63%
5%
*%
8%
39%
16%
31%
0% 25% 50% 75%
Don't know
Never/shouldn't be held
After Autumn 2014
Autumn 2014
After Summer 2013 but before Autumn
2014
Within the next 18 months
Support independence
Oppose independence
8 8 8 8 8 8
Attitudes toward
‘devolution max’…
9 9 9 9 9 9
Of Scots have heard of
„devolution max‟.
65%
10 10 10 10 10 10
Of Scots think that a separate
„devolution max‟ question
should be on the ballot paper.
Of Scots think that the
referendum should only
include a question on
independence.
59%
37%
X X
X
11
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Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more
laws and duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK?
Majority of Scots support devolution max proposal
71%
24%
5% Agree Disagree
Undecided
71%
25%
5% Agree Disagree Undecided
All All who are certain to vote
Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
12
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The vast majority of those who support
independence also support devolution max
88%
9%
Support independence
53%
41%
Oppose independence
Undecided
Oppose devolution max
Support devolution max
Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws
and duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK?
13
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here Party support for independence and devolution max
Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
76%
10%
2%
11%
89%
59%
38%
62%
Party support
Support independence
Support devolution max
14 14 14 14 14 14
Scots’ perceptions
of the impact of
independence on
their personal
circumstances and
the prospects for
the country as a
whole…
15
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Q: Do you think your personal finances will improve, stay the same or get worse…
Personal finances
Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
34%
33%
30%
In the next five years
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse
Don‟t know – 2%
Net optimism = +4%
22%
35%
36%
7%
If Scotland were to become an independent country
Improve
Get worse Stay the same
Don‟t know
Net optimism = -14%
16
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Q: Do you think your job security will improve, stay the same or get worse…
Job security
Base: All those currently working (581). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
18%
60%
19%
In the next five years
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse
Don‟t know – 3%
Net optimism = -1%
19%
50%
26%
5%
If Scotland were to become an independent country
Improve
Get worse
Stay the same
Don‟t know
Net optimism = -7%
17
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Q: Do you think economic conditions in Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse…
Economic conditions in Scotland
Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
34%
23%
39%
In the next five years
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse
Don‟t know – 4%
Net optimism = -5%
34%
13%
45%
8%
If Scotland were to become an independent country
Improve
Get worse Stay the same
Don‟t know
Net optimism = -11%
18
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Q: Do you think Scotland’s standing in the world will improve, stay the same or get worse…
Scotland’s standing in the world
Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
39%
38%
17%
6%
In the next five years
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse
Don‟t know
Net optimism = +22%
42%
21%
33%
4%
If Scotland were to become an independent country
Improve
Get worse
Stay the same
Don‟t know – 4%
Net optimism = +9%
19 19 19 19 19 19
Alex Salmond Vs.…
Who should lead the ‘No’
campaign?
55% of Scots could not name someone
?
7%
9%
25%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Alistair Darling
Johann Lamont
David Cameron
Of those who could…
Base: All (1,005), all naming someone (450). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+,
27-29 January 2012
21 21 21 21 21 21
National identity…
22
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Q: Which of the following best describes your national identity?
All Born in
Scotland
Support
independence
Oppose
independence
Scottish not
British 24% 28% 46% 8%
More Scottish
then British 30% 34% 31% 26%
Equally Scottish
and British 31% 32% 15% 44%
More British
than Scottish 4% 2% 3% 6%
British not
Scottish 7% 3% 3% 12%
Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
23
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,005 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 27th January – 29th January 2012
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS 2007-2008 data; and
public-private sector employment using Scottish
Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series
data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don‟t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,005) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI
[email protected] | 0131 240 3269
[email protected] | 0131 240 3264
@IpsosMORIScot