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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor February 2013

2 2 2 2 2 2

Independence

3

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

32%

52%

16% Yes

No

Undecided

34%

55%

11% Yes

No

Undecided

All Certain to vote

Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 73% (735). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013

„Yes‟ change since Oct = +4% „Yes‟ change since Oct = +4%

Support for independence increased to 34% among those certain

to vote, up four points since October 2012

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Base: All certain to vote = 73% (735). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013

48% 61%

38% 54% 52%

61%

17%

73%

94%

73%

41% 28%

58%

28% 38%

27%

70%

15% 5%

19% Yes

No

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ SNP Labour Cons. Lib

Dem

Support for independence is highest among men, those aged 18-

24 and SNP supporters

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Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

50% 55% 58% 55%

39% 35% 30% 34%

Yes

No

January 2012 June 2012 October 2012 February 2013

The rise in support for independence has bucked the recent

trend

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here Support for independence – 35 year trend

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Su

pp

ort

fo

r in

de

pe

nd

en

ce

(%

)

Introduction of the poll tax

in Scotland Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens

Devolution referendum

SNP form minority

government

SNP form majority

government

Edinburgh

Agreement

signed

7 7 7 7 7 7

Scottish Parliament voting

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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

41%

36%

14%

8% SNP

Labour

Others – 1%

43%

35%

13%

7% SNP

Labour

Others – 2%

All giving a voting

intention (83%)

All who are certain to

vote (65%)

Base: All giving a voting intention = 83% (841); all certain to vote = 65% (647). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013

Cons.

Lib Dem

Cons.

Lib Dem

SNP lead over Labour = +5% SNP lead over Labour = +8%

The SNP has a eight point lead over Labour among those certain

to vote in a Scottish Parliament election…

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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

43%

35%

13%

7%

2%

Scottish Parliament Election

Result

Scottish Parliament Election

Result


… increasing the gap that had been closing throughout 2012

10 10 10 10 10 10

Satisfaction with party leaders

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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Deputy First Minister/Leader of

Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/the Better Together Campaign?

Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013

Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction

change

(since Oct ‟12)

7% +7% -3%

17% +17% NA

31% +8% +3%

35% +1% NA

39% -4% +5%

56% +12% +7%

6% -40% -5%

49% -7% 0%

Half of Scots are satisfied with the job that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon

are doing, while Johann Lamont continues to improve her profile

29%

67%

16%

33%

32%

31%

33%

43%

22%

27%

28%

29%

33%

39%

50%

50%

Willie Rennie

David Cameron

Patrick Harvie

Ruth Davidson

Alistair Darling

Johann Lamont

Nicola Sturgeon

Alex Salmond

Dissatisfied Satisfied

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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Deputy First Minister/Leader of

Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/the Better Together Campaign?


Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction

change

(since Oct ‟12)

2% +81% +7%

15% +68% NA

6% +40% -19%

21% +39% -2%

26% +36% -5%

28% +26% -11%

33% +13% NA

Satisfaction among own party supporters

27%

23%

19%

20%

27%

9%

9%

40%

49%

55%

59%

67%

77%

90%

Alistair Darling

Willie Rennie

Ruth Davidson

Johann Lamont

David Cameron

Nicola Sturgeon

Alex Salmond


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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign?


Don‟t know Net satisfaction

15% +57%

33% +15%

Satisfaction among own campaign supporters

26%

14%

41%

71%

Alistair Darling (among 'No' voters)

Nicola Sturgeon (among 'Yes' voters)


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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime

Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Satisfaction with party leader trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13

Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron

50%

39%

29%

22%

28%


27%

15


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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime

Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Net Satisfaction with party leader trends

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13

Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron

+7 +8

-4 -7

+13


-40

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• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents

conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 4th February – 9th February 2013

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don‟t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264

This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI

@IpsosMORIScot

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