Scottish Agriculture in NumbersQuiz Results

Andrew Walker

Approximately how much of Scottish land belongs to agricultural holdings?

Results of the June Agricultural Census

Question 1

Scotland’s land areaAg

ricul

tura

l are

a 73%

Percentage of Holdings Percentage of Area

8% of holdings are over 200 hectares in size

and account for 73% of the agricultural area of Scotland.

52% of holdings are under 10 hectares in size

and account for 2% of the agricultural area of Scotland.

Agric

ultu

ral a

rea

Scotland’s land area

Non-cultivatedland

WoodlandCrops and fallow

Grass

Rough grazing

Grass

21%

Total crop

s and fal-low10%

Rough

graz-ing

59%

Other10%

Scotland

Grass

41%

Total crop

s and fal-low44%

Rough

graz-ing9%

Other5%

England

Grass

68%Total crop

s and fal-low5%

Rough

graz-ing

23%

Other4%

Wales

Grass

76%

Total crop

s and fal-low5%

Rough

graz-ing

17%

Other2%

Northern Ireland

Agricultural area on main and minor holdings by country, June 2012

How many tonnes of cereals were produced in Scotland in 2012?

Estimates of the Scottish Cereal HarvestEconomic Report on Scottish Agriculture

Question 2

Change in cereal production (2003 to 2012)– relationship between area and yield –

Prod Value

Barley -8% +8%

Wheat -30% -16%

Oats -11% +16%

OSR

Potatoes

Carrots

Turnips and Swedes

Brussel Sprouts

Peas

Other Vegetables

Prod Value

Raspberries

Strawberries

Other Fruit

2.5 million tonnes

(down 15% on 2011)

bottles of malt whiskey loaves of bread bowls of porridge0

100

200

300

400

500

Photos used under Creative Commons licence from Flickr.comWhiskey by Paul JosephBread loaf by Jeff KeacherPorridge with maple syrup by LondonBrad

AgStats Fun Stuff

Roughly how many sheep are there for every 100 people in Scotland?

Results of the June Agricultural Census

Question 3

1883

1891

1899

1907

1915

1923

1931

1939

1947

1955

1963

1971

1979

1987

1995

2003

2011

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

catt

le (m

illio

ns)

Sheep numbers peaked in 1930s, 60s and 90s , but now at lowest since 1947.

6.7 million in 2012.

Cattle numbers were static until the 1930s, then rose to a peak of 2.7 million in 1974, and have since fallen back.

1.8 million in 2012.

1883

1891

1899

1907

1915

1923

1931

1939

1947

1955

1963

1970

1977

1985

1993

2001

2009

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11sh

eep

(mill

ions

)

19461952

19581964

19701976

19821988

19942000

20062012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

poul

try

(mill

ions

)

1883 1900 1917 1934 1951 1968 1985 20020

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

pigs

(tho

usan

ds)

Poultry: Numbers, which are only available since 1946, increased in the 1970s, and have fluctuated since then, generally between 12 million and 15 million.

14.7 million in 2012.

Pigs: Numbers increased sharply in the 1950s, peaking in the early 70s and late 90s, but have now fallen back to its lowest since 1951.

363,000 in 2012.

Poultry14.7m Scotland’s Population

Pigs

363,

000Cattle

1.8m

People5.3m

Farm workers68,000

Sheep6.7m

Poultry14.7m Scotland’s Population

Pigs

363,

000Cattle

1.8m

Sheep6.7m

People5.3m

Farm workers68,000

Poultry14.7m Scotland’s Population

Pigs

363,

000Cattle

1.8m

Sheep6.7m

People5.3m

Farm workers68,000

128 sheep for every 100 people in Scotland.

Per farm worker

5 pigs26 cows98 sheep215 poultry

Output value of livestock

Ten-year trend

volume price

beef

sheep

poultry

pig

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Cattle

Sheep

Poultry

Pigs

Other

valu

e (£

m m

illio

n)

10 chickens

of a pig of a cow

a sheep

200 eggs

430 pints of milk

Four woolly jumpers

Per Person Production

Photos used under Creative Commons licence from Flickr.comChickens by April YoungloveCow and pig by Peter PearsonSheep (Ovis aries) by Peter aka anemoneprojectorsEggs by George M. GroutasMilkbottles by gwireThe Lopapeysu Gang by Guðmundur Bjarni Ólafsson

What was the Total Income From Farming in Scotland in 2012?

Farm Income Estimates

Question 4

outputs inputs0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Cereals

Other crops

Livestock

Livestock products

Other activities

Grants & Subsidies

Feed, fertiliser & seed

Consumption of capital

Other expenses

2012 first estimates

£ m

illio

nTotal Income From Farming (TIFF) -2012

Output = £3.3 bnLess subsidies = £2.8 bn

Input = £2.7 bn

TIFF = £635m

Change over the year:

Output

-£65m

Input

+£46m

TIFF

-£111m

Total Income From Farming (TIFF) -2012

Period of high inflation

1995 to 1998:1 strong pound2 weak world commodity prices3 impact of BSE

1, 2, 3

Average:£571m

Average:£643m

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600TIFF in Real Terms (at 2012 prices)

£ m

illio

ns

In 2012, what was the average income of Scottish Farm Businesses?

Farm Income Estimates

Question 5

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Average FBI

Aver

age

FBI (

£)20

11-1

2 pr

ices

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Average FBI without grants and subsidies Break even

Aver

age

FBI (

£)20

11-1

2 pr

ices

Average FBI: £45k

Average FBI of top 25%: £117k

FBI of bottom 25%: -£5k

Farm Business Income (FBI) - 2012

-6%-2%

On last year

Over five years

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-120

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Average FBI per unpaid worker (FTE)

Sample Year

Aver

age

FBI (

£)20

11-1

2 pr

ices

Farm Business Income (FBI) - 2012

Farm Business Income (FBI) - 2012

• One full year = 1900 hours• FBI/FTE = £31,000• On average, £16.13 per hour• This is roughly two and a half times the

minimum agricultural wage in Scotland

at least MAW

less than MAW

less than £0

One in four farm businesses don’t generate enough to pay invested labour the minimum agricultural wage.

One in ten make a loss.

Income available to remunerate unpaid labour of those with an entrepreneurial interest in the business, relative to MAW.

Farm Business Income (FBI) - 2012

Which type of farm generates the greatest average farm business income?

Farm Income Estimates

Question 6

£80k £50k £50k £48k £45k £37k £30k £25k

Average FBI in 2011-12:

Dairy

Cere

al

Gene

ral

Crop

ping

Mix

ed

Cattl

e &

Shee

p (L

FA)

Beef

(LFA

)

Shee

p (L

FA)

Low

land

Ca

ttle

& S

heep

Change in last year: +6% -32% -8% -3% +3% +7% -1% -23%

Farm Business Income (FBI) - 2012

Dairy Farms average FBI = £80k

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-06

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

All farm types NFI: 1991-92 to 2011-12 NFI 2011-12 Prices

NFI Actual Prices

NFI

Val

ue

Net Farm Income (NFI) - 2012

Ban on beef exports (BSE)

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-06

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

All farm types NFI: 1991-92 to 2011-12 NFI 2011-12 Prices

NFI Actual Prices

NFI

Val

ue

Farm Business Income (FBI) - 2012

1991-92

1993-94

1995-06

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

2009-10

2011-12£0

£20,000

£40,000

£60,000

£80,000Dairy NFI (real terms)

1991-92

1993-94

1995-06

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

2009-10

2011-12-£10,000

£0

£10,000

£20,000

£30,000

£40,000Mixed NFI (real terms)

1991-92

1993-94

1995-06

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

2009-10

2011-12-£10,000

£0

£10,000

£20,000

£30,000

£40,000LFA cattle and sheep NFI (real terms)

Farm Business Income (FBI) - 2012

barle

y an

d be

re

whe

at

oats rye

bean

s

peas

pota

toes

turn

ips a

nd sw

...

cabb

age

vetc

hes

smal

l/soft

frui

t0

100

200

300

400

19122012

Hec

tare

s (th

ousa

nds)

In 1912, how many hectares of turnips and swedes were grown in Scotland?

177.9

Summary (1)• 73% of Scotland’s land area is agricultural

– mostly severely disadvantaged – mostly rough grazing with proportionally less grass than rest

of UK.

• 2.5 million tonnes of cereals in 2012 – down 15% on previous year due to fall in yields, but still potential for making lots of whiskey

• General decline in livestock numbers in last decade, except poultry

– while output value of cattle continues to increase other livestock output has seen a fall in the last year.

Summary (2)• Estimated TIFF for 2012 = £635 million

– 2% fall in outputs and 2% rise in inputs (esp. fertiliser and fuel) – improvement in 10 year average

• Average FBI £45,000 (£117k for high performers, -£5k for low) – without subsidies, average farm makes a loss

– one in four farm businesses don’t generate enough to pay invested labour the minimum agricultural wage

• Dairy farms have the highest average income (£80,000) – Dairy, Mixed and LFA Cattle and Sheep average incomes at

highest levels in 20 years (accounting for inflation) – Overall, average income has returned to level of mid-1990s