Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether)

© Ricado plc 2012

Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets

Justin Goodwin (Aether)Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA)Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA)

Special Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for input to Scottish GHGi over the years.

28 November 2012

NESAC, Scottish Government

Victoria Quay, Leith, Edinburgh

2

What does this presentation cover?

Overview

Trends and Changes

By NC sector

Uncertainties

Changes and Improvements

Where you can find more information

3

Background: UK and DA GHG inventory and other datasets

UK UNFCCC (Kyoto Protocol) GHG inventory : This presentation

Embedded Emissions (e.g. Scotland's carbon footprint )– All greenhouse gas emissions at home and abroad from the production, transport and use of goods and services consumed by the Scottish

economy.

Environmental Accounts– Emissions from UK citizens activity in the UK and aboard.

4

Background: The UK and DA GHG inventory: Aims and Objectives

Our aim:– Deliver a strong, accurate evidence base on GHG emissions.

• Meet reporting & monitoring commitments (UNFCCC, EU, CCC, SG, Wales & NI) • to inform climate change policy development and implementation.

To do this:– Use UK statistics and bottom up datasets (e.g. EU ETS, other industry reporting).– Use available DA (Scotland)-specific data where possible - this is limited, and there

are also some constraining factors (e.g. links to UK datasets – more of this later),– Use UK wide mapping datasets to derive some LA, DA estimates

We believe that it’s a pretty good inventory, but it’s not perfect:– Year-to-year uncertainties are high compared to long time-series trend uncertainties– For DA’s (Scotland) need access more detailed data to help improve the inventory and

make it more accurate and sensitive to policy impacts.– there are systems (improvement programme) in place to fix highest priorities, and

plenty of examples of us using new data to challenge / improve the current dataset.

Please let us know if you know of more data / research to improve the accuracy of the Scottish GHG Inventory.

5

Background: UK GHG Inventory – How the GHGI is run.

DECC,

SG, WG, NI DoEDefra,

SG, WG, NI DoE

National Atmospheric

Emissions Inventories

GHG inventories:

UK, Scotland, Wales,

Northern Ireland

Aether & Ricardo-

AEA

Government

Sector andpollutant experts

Energy use

Transport

Industry

Waste

Agriculture

LULUCF

Sectors Pollutants

Outputs Energy and

Emissions Mapping

GHG inventories (Annual EU and UNFCCC and KP reporting)

Air quality pollutant inventories (Annual CLRTAP, NECD, etc.)

DA inventories, OT and CD inventories, Local inventories

AQ and GHG projections

End user inventories, uncertainties, etc.

Local Authority CO2

Inventories

GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases

AQ pollutants: Acidifying pollutants,

VOCs, Particulate Matter, Metals, POPs

GHGI Single National Entity:

Inventory Agency :

Rothamsted Research

CEH

Ricardo-AEA, Aether, Enviros

6

Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (1)

• Single National Entity: UK Government Department of Energy & Climate

Change (DECC). Overall responsibility for the UK NIS.

• Inventory Agency: Consortium led by Ricardo-AEA, including Aether.

Contracted by DECC to manage the inventory compilation, reporting and

Quality Assurance system.

• Agriculture Inventory: Rothamsted Research.

• LULUCF Inventory: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

Key organisations tasked with delivering UK GHGI to EU Monitoring Mechanism and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, using methods consistent with IPCC guidance, on time for submission to EUMM by 15th January each year (so the 1990-2011 GHGI data will be submitted on 15/1/2013 to the EU, then to UNFCCC on 15/4/2013.

7

Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (2)

National Inventory Steering Committee

• Panel of representatives from Government Departments, regulatory agencies,

other organisations, including Scottish Government.

i. Prioritise & implement inventory improvements.

ii. Review the UK GHGI prior to data submission to UNFCCC.

iii. Communicate GHGI issues across Government.

iv. Includes representatives of regional and local Government.

• Meets twice a year (today!), managed by DECC.

• The UK NIS operates an inventory improvement programme that integrates

national-level and sub-national level priorities.

8

8

Background: DA (Scottish) GHG Inventory Compilation Approach

N IRELAND GHG

INVENTORY

WALES GHG

INVENTORY

UK GHGIQuality SystemData, methods, reviewConsultation, funding

Data acquisition Inventory Compilation

(spreadsheets)UK GHGI

(database)

Data from Scotland, Wales, England,

N Ireland

SCOTLAND GHG

INVENTORY

ENGLAND GHG

INVENTORY

9

9

Background: DA and LA Inventory Compilation (1)

We adopt the basic principle that:

Sum of DA or LA inventories = UK Inventory

...for each source and each pollutant.

Incorporates benefits of the UK GHGI:

UK inventories subject to rigorous QA/QC, reliable time series, has been developed

over 20+ years of research into UK sources.

UK GHGI is a resource of emission factors, many activity data, conversion factors etc.

(Can fill gaps in local knowledge.)

X Constrains the DA inventory data to align with the UK GHGI totals. e.g. sum of DA

energy use in each economic sector is constrained to that presented in DUKES.

10

10

Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (2)

“Bottom-up” estimates for sources where we have comprehensive local data, such

as:

Industrial point sources

Road transport

Domestic flight data

“Top-down” or modelled estimates for sources where we DON’T have comprehensive

local data, such as:

Combustion sources in domestic, commercial, small-scale industry and public administration

sectors (e.g. we use the DEMScot model and Scottish Housing Condition Survey data to

inform Scotland share of UK-reported domestic emissions)

Waste and sewage treatment and disposal emissions

F-gas emissions from refrigeration and other sources

11

11

Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (3)

• Use local parameters such as population, employment, housing condition surveys

(domestic), industrial production statistics.

• Commercial confidentiality limits energy use data – cannot access detailed local AND

sector-specific data. Overall local data is available, but not split out by sector.

• Modelling approach to derive estimates:

o Metered fuels (gas, electricity) greater accuracy than non-metered fuels (oils, solid

fuels).

o DA/LA estimates for these sources are higher in uncertainty, and inventory data are

less sensitive to policy impacts.

12

Background: Data Sources (1)

• Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DECC),

EUETS

• Pollution Inventories (EA, SEPA,NI DoE)

• Transport data (DfT, CAA, shipping data)

• Companies & Trade Associations (e.g. UKPIA,

BCA, Corus)

• Other statistical sources (ONS, ISSB, BGS…)

• Farming surveys and UK-wide emission factor

research (Rothamsted)

• Countryside Surveys (more details from

CEH…)

• DECC Sub-national Energy Statistics (DECC)

• Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SEPA)

• Vehicle km data & DVLA data (DfT)

• Scottish Housing Condition Survey data and

DEMScot model (SG)

• Individual companies (e.g. Alcan, Ineos, GSK

Montrose, ExxonMobil..)

• Population, employment, industrial production

data (ONS)

• Gas network demand, gas composition and

leakage data (Scotia Gas)

• Waste water statistics (Scottish Water)

• Waste management statistics (SEPA, Defra)

13

Background: Data Sources (2) Energy: (Business, Public, Residential, Agricultural machinery)

– Sub-national energy statistics: Limited compared to UK energy statistics: Industry and Commercial, Agriculture, Residential• greater uncertainty and less detail than the UK energy statistics:– no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly

good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. • Road transport based on fuel sales and vehicle km. (see later in presentation).• EUETS data for some large energy users.

Industrial process (Industrial Process, Business)– plant operator estimates reported to environmental agencies e.g. Integrated Pollution Prevention and

Control (IPPC) & EUETS. – Cement and lime kilns, iron and steel works, aluminium and other non-ferrous metal plant, chemical

industries;

Agriculture (Livestock & crops & soils)– Annual survey data & UK emission factors : arable production and livestock numbers;

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) – regional survey data of land use, emission factors and, modelled to calculate GHG emissions and carbon

fluxes between sources and sinks;

Waste– modelled emissions from the UK GHG inventory, split out across the DAs based on local authority waste

disposal activity reporting - local shares of UK activity for recycling, landfilling, incineration and other treatment and disposal options.

UK statistical data and improvements will impact upon Scottish GHG data, e.g. recent revisions to energy balance data on fuel use in sectors such as: refineries, petrochemicals…also have a large impact in Scotland.

14

Background: GHG Inventory: Scope GHG Inventories report annual emissions of all anthropogenic GHG emissions.

Annual: 1990 – 2010 (reported in 2012) = 2 year lag.

Sources: NAEI source/activity categories (370) – IPCC (100) – National

Communication (9)

• Gases: “Kyoto basket of six” GHGs: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs,

PFCs, SF6

• Carbon dioxide: mainly from combustion of fuels in different economic sectors, industrial processes, LULUCF sources and sinks

• Methane: waste, agriculture

• Nitrous oxide: industrial processes, agriculture

• F-gases: industrial processes & AC/Refrigeration

Excluded:

– Short-cycle biocarbon in the GHGI (e.g. CO2 from plant biomass but not CH4)

– International shipping and aviation – “memo items” for DA estimates.

– DA: offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities

15

Background: DA National Communication categories

Agriculture– Livestock, Soils, crops & field burning, energy use in Agriculture Forestry and Fishing

Business– Energy use (combustion for heat and power in businesses)– Use of Solvents & HFC/PFC leakage from appliances (Air conditioning, refrigeration, fire fighting, foams)

Energy Supply– Energy production (electricity, solid & liquid fuels, generation refining and mining and oil and gas extraction**)

Industrial Process– Non energy. Fossil based carbon from feedstocks (e.g. Limestone, metal ores, oil and natural gas) production and use of HFC,

PFCs & SF6.

Land Use & Land Use Change– Managed land (e.g. forest, crops, grassland, settlements, wetlands) + Change of use (e.g. Forest -> crop, crop – grass)

Public– Combustion of fossil fuels

Residential– Combustion of fossil fuels (heating, cooking), garden machinery, aerosols & other products, accidental fires

Transport– Civil aviation & airport support vehicles, road vehicles, rail & rail infrastructure, domestic shipping & fishing, military

Waste– Landfill, sewage, incineration.

** Unallocated– offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities

16

Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)

By Source End User

Non Traded & Traded Split

Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).

0.2% < by source (exported electricity)

Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of total net UK GHG emissions

Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year

The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)

Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp.

17


By Source End User








18


By Source End User








19


By Source End User








Sector 2009 UK GHGI (%)

2009 End Users GHGI (%)

Comment

Energy production

35 0 (All re-allocated to end users)

Business 15 30 High electricity and oil use

Transport 22 24 Oil use

Public 1.5 3.1 Mainly electricity

Residential 14 26 Mainly electricity

Agriculture 8.8 9.2 Bit of oil use

Waste 3.2 3.2 (No fuel use)

20


By Source End User








Power generation and consumption data from DECC[1] (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to England and Northern Ireland.

Power generation and consumption data from DECC (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to England and Northern Ireland.

http://www.aether-uk.com/

21

Trends & Changes: Scottish by Source Emission Trends 1990 - 2010

Scotland Trends in Emissions

Percentage Change in GHG Emissions by NC: Base Year - 2010 and 2009 - 2010 The % changes for LULUCF are based on net change to emiss ions and removals throughout the time series

Figure 3.1

Percentage Change in Total GHG and CO2 Emissions by NC: Base Year - 2010 and 2009 - 2010

Base Year to 2010 as % -19% -34% -7% -79% -161% -29% 2% 2% -67% -24%2009 to 2010 as % 0% 2% 12% -4% 2% 3% 15% -1% -3% 7%

Base Year to 2010 as % -21% -42% -2% -73% -136% -28% 2% 3% -80% -19%2009 to 2010 as % 1% 2% 12% -4% 2% 3% 15% -1% 3% 9%

Base Year to 2010 kt -1,877 -3,878 -1,578 -1,436 -3,368 -351 189 196 -4,417 -16,5212009 to 2010 kt 2 139 2,209 -15 114 26 1,065 -55 -68 3,416

Base Year to 2010 kt -187 -4,681 -440 -994 -3,320 -347 182 263 -35 -9,5592009 to 2010 kt 9 108 2,188 -17 121 26 1,066 -55 0 3,447

Table 3.2

Figure 3.2

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions by NC category for Base Year to 2010, as CO2e

Waste Management Transport Residential Public Land Use ChangeIndustrial Process Energy Supply Business Agriculture

Agricul ture

Bus iness

Energy Supply

Industrial Process

Land Use Change

Publ ic

Res idential

Transport

Waste Management

Grand Total

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Base Year to 2010 as % 2009 to 2010 as %

22

Trends & Changes: Progress to targets

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 : existing anthropogenic sources and sinks of emissions in Scotland. Includes:– Allowances for trading within the EU ETS, the EU-wide trading scheme that has been

operational since 2005– Scottish emissions from international aviation and shipping..

2050 target

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990Base Year

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent

Targets for 2010-2027 as set in the Climate Change (Annual Targets) (Scotland) Order 2010

23

Trends & Changes: Changes in by source Emissions in Scotland 1990 - 2010

Reductions– LULUCF– Industrial Process– Waste

Increases– Energy– Residential

24

Key Sources and Sinks 2010

CO2: most important

CH4: Agriculture & Waste

N2O: Agriculture

Energy Supply

Transport

LULUCF

Scotland 2010 Emissions Summary

Total GHG Emissions by NC and pollutant, 2010

Figure 3.4

Figure 3.5

Figure 3.6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Mt C

O2e

Comparison of End User and By Source Emissions, 2010 (Mt CO2e) EndUser - 2010 By Source - 2010

* Exports includes international aviation and shipping. See Sankey diagram for emissions transfer details

*

Residential combustion

Electricity Production

Road Transport

Industrial Combustionof fuels

-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Agriculture

Business

Energy Supply

Industrial Process

Land Use Change

Public

Residential

Transport

Waste Management

kt CO2e

Total GHG Emissions by NC and sub-category highlighting the important sources, 2010

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

kt C

O2e SF6

PFCs

N2O

HFCs

CH4

CO2

25

Sectoral Analysis: Energy SupplyEnergy Supply Scotland

Figure 3.10 Figure 3.11Percentage of total emissions

Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.3

Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eElectrici ty Production 7% 1,065 18% 2,419Gas Production -57% -494 -17% -79Liquid Fuel Production -26% -772 -5% -122Offshore Industry -69% -806 2% 7Sol id Fuel Production -22% -572 -1% -16Tota l -7% -1,578 12% 2,209

NC Category Contribution to End UserInventory by percentage ofElectricity Production Emissions

NC Category EndUser

Agricul ture 1.98%Transport 1.21%Bus iness 53.68%Industria l Process 0.00%Publ ic 4.86%Res idential 38.26%Table 3.4

Figure 3.12

Figure 3.13 Figure 3.14

39.0%

BY-2010 2009-2010

Energy Supply

-10,0000

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution of Energy Supply to 2010 GHG emissions

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Solid Fuel Production


Liquid Fuel Production

Offshore Industry

Gas Production

kt CO2e

GHG Contribution for Energy Supply Emissions, 2010CO2

CH4

N2O

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from Energy Supply, Base Year to 2010

Solid Fuel Production Electricity Production Liquid Fuel Production

Offshore Industry Gas Production

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010

kt C

O2e

Traded and Non-Traded Energy Supply Emissions, 2008-2010

Sum of Non-Traded GHGI All GHGsSum of Traded Emissions CO2 only

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ele

ctri

city

Ge

nera

tion

(GW

h)

Emissions and Electricity Production by Fuel Type from Major Power Producers (1A1a)

Gas Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables and Hydro

Energy Supply Scotland

Figure 3.11Percentage of total emissions


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eElectrici ty Production 7% 1,065 18% 2,419Gas Production -57% -494 -17% -79Liquid Fuel Production -26% -772 -5% -122Offshore Industry -69% -806 2% 7Sol id Fuel Production -22% -572 -1% -16Tota l -7% -1,578 12% 2,209

NC Category Contribution to End UserInventory by percentage ofElectricity Production Emissions

NC Category EndUser

Agricul ture 1.98%Transport 1.21%Bus iness 53.68%Industria l Process 0.00%Publ ic 4.86%Res idential 38.26%Table 3.4

Figure 3.12


Energy Supply

-10,0000

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution of Energy Supply to 2010 GHG emissions

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Solid Fuel Production


Liquid Fuel Production

Offshore Industry

Gas Production

kt CO2e

GHG Contribution for Energy Supply Emissions, 2010CO2

CH4

N2O

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from Energy Supply, Base Year to 2010

Solid Fuel Production Electricity Production Liquid Fuel Production

Offshore Industry Gas Production

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010

kt C

O2e

Traded and Non-Traded Energy Supply Emissions, 2008-2010

Sum of Non-Traded GHGI All GHGsSum of Traded Emissions CO2 only

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ele

ctri

city

Ge

nera

tion

(GW

h)

Emissions and Electricity Production by Fuel Type from Major Power Producers (1A1a)

Gas Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables and Hydro

UK electricity grid GHG factor basis for end user inventories, so ….investment in Scotland renewables wouldn’t necessarily pan out into inventory reductions IN SCOTLAND – will lead to reductions in reported emissions across the UK.

26

Increase despite improvements in efficiency of transport vehicles, as a result of strong growth in transport demand and increased affordability of cars and fuel

constrained (DUKES fuel sales) and unconstrained (vehicle kilometre, vkm) approaches

Sectoral Analysis: TransportTransport Scotland

Percentage of total emissionsFigure 3.15

Figure 3.16


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eAircraft & Airports 42.4% 150 -9.4% -52.6Industria l Combustion of fuels -100.0% -6 - 0.00Other Transport -27.1% -291 -3.1% -25.0Road Transport 3.8% 345 0.2% 22.5Stationary and mobi le combustion -47.1% -1.9 1.2% 0.0Tota l 1.9% 196 -0.5% -55.1



20.1%

BY-2010 2009-2010

Transport

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution of Transport to 2010 GHG emissions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from Transport, Base Year - 2010

Stationary and mobile combustion Other TransportAircraft & Airports Road TransportIndustrial Combustion of fuels

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Stationaryand mobilecombustion

OtherTransport

Aircraft &Airports

RoadTransport

IndustrialCombustion

of fuels

kt C

O2e

Pollutant Contribution to Transport sub-categories, 2010

N2O

CH4

CO2

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

kt C

O2

Road Transport CO2 Emissions (vkm)

Cars LGVs HGVs Buses Motorcycles

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990

1995

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

kt C

O2

Road Transport CO2 Emissions (fuel sales)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mt C

O2e

Comparison of End User and By SourceTransport Emissions, 2010

EndUserSource

Transport Scotland


Figure 3.16





Transport

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

kt C

O2e



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


OtherTransport

Aircraft &Airports

RoadTransport


of fuels

kt C

O2e


N2O

CH4

CO2

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

kt C

O2



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990

1995

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

kt C

O2



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mt C

O2e


EndUserSource

Transport Scotland


Figure 3.16





Transport

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

kt C

O2e



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


OtherTransport

Aircraft &Airports

RoadTransport


of fuels

kt C

O2e


N2O

CH4

CO2

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

kt C

O2



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990

1995

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

kt C

O2



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mt C

O2e


EndUserSource

27

Sectoral Analysis: Residential

Increase in emissions– cold winters and a resultant

high demand for fossil

End User– high consumption of electricity

in the sector– improvements in housing

energy efficiency and lower carbon intensity of the electricity generation

Residential Scotland

15.7%Percentage of total emissions

Figure 3.21Figure 3.22


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eAerosols and metered dose inhalers and other household products 148.5% 214 -1.9% -7Other -33.8% -0.04 -0.2% 0.0Res idential combustion -0.3% -25 15.4% 1,071.8Tota l 2.3% 189 14.6% 1,064.7


BY-2010 2009-2010

Res idential

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution of Residential sector to 2010 GHG emissions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions by sub-sector, Base Year - 2010

Aerosols and metered dose inhalers and other household productsOtherResidential combustion

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Residentialcombustion

Other Aerosols andmetered doseinhalers and

other householdproducts

kt C

O2e

Pollutant contribution to Residential Emissions, 2010

N2O

HFCs

CH4

CO2

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mt C

O2e

Comparison between End User and By Source Inventory Totals, 2010 (Mt CO2e)

EndUserSource

28

Sectoral Analysis: BusinessBusiness Scotland

Figure 3.25 14.10% Percentage of total emissions

Figure 3.26


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eIndustria l Combustion of fuels -23.8% -2,003.8 1.5% 92.6Iron and s teel - combustion and electrici ty -98.2% -2,765.8 37.8% 14.3Refrigeration and a i r conditioning 1350.8% 842.7 4.0% 34.4Use of Flourinated Gases 50.5% 48.9 -1.6% -2.3Tota l -34.1% -3,878.1 1.9% 138.9


2009-2010BY-2010

Bus iness

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution to 2010 GHG emissions

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Iron and steel -combustion and electricity

Refrigeration and airconditioning

Use of Flourinated Gases

Industrial Combustion offuels

kt CO2e

Pollutant Contribution for Business Emissions, 2010

CO2

CH4

HFCs

N2O

PFCs

SF6

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from Business, Base Year - 2010

Industrial Combustion of fuelsUse of Flourinated GasesRefrigeration and air conditioningIron and steel - combustion and electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mt C

O2e

Comparison between End User andBy Source Inventory for the Business Sector, 1990

and 2006-2010 (Mt CO2e)

EndUser Source

lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business and Industrial Process emissions are not easy to separate

declining manufacturing and iron and steel industry emissions

Increasing F-Gas use

End User: high consumption of electricity for heating, lighting and operating equipment

29

Sectoral Analysis: Public Service

building energy efficiency

convert to the use of gas-fired boilers

End user = 193% of the by source emission– High % electricity

use

Public Scotland

Figure 3.30Figure 3.29

Percentage of total emissions


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2ePubl ic Sector -28.7% -351 3.1% 26


1.64%

BY-2010 2009-2010

Publ ic

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution of Public sector to 2010 GHG emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from Public, Base Year - 2010 Public Sector

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

Public Sector

kt C

O2e

Public Sector Emissions by Pollutant, 2010

N2O

CH4

CO2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mt C

O2e

Comparison between End User and By Source Inventoryfor the Public Sector, 1990 and 2006-2010 (Mt CO2e)

EndUser

Source

30

Sectoral Analysis: Industrial ProcessIndustrial Process Scotland

0.73%Percentage of total emissions

Figure 3.33

Figure 3.34

Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.9 BY-2010 2009-2010

Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eCement production -44.8% -229 -1.2% -3.5Chemical Production -91.9% -464 -23.1% -12.3Electrici ty Production -100.0% -152 - 0.0Iron & Steel -100.0% -595 0.4% 0.0Other Processes 6.5% 4 0.5% 0.3Total -78.7% -1436 -3.8% -15.4

Figure 3.35

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Cement production


Other Processes

Chemical Production

Iron & Steel

kt CO2e

Pollutant Contribution for Industrial Process Emissions, 2010

CO2

CH4

HFCs

N2O

PFCs

SF6

Industrial Process

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution of Industrial Process to 2010 GHG emissions

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

BaseYear

1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from Industrial Process, Base Year - 2010

Cement production Electricity Production Other ProcessesChemical Production Iron & Steel

Closure– nitric acid plant, – Ravenscraig iron and

steel works,

Reduction in emissions from the chemicals and cement sectors

lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business and Industrial Process emissions are not easy to separate

31

Sectoral Analysis: AgricultureAgriculture Scotland

Figure 3.36 14.93% Figure 3.37Percentage of total emissions


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eCrop Growing and Ferti l i zer Appl ication -21.2% -1,124.2 -0.6% -23.2Field burning of agricul tura l wastes -100.0% -8.2 - 0.00Livestock -15.4% -542.6 0.5% 13.9Stationary and mobi le combustion -20.0% -202.2 1.4% 11.2Tota l -19.1% -1,877.1 0.0% 1.9

Figure 3.39

Figure 3.38

BY-2010 2009-2010

Agricul ture

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

ktCO

2e

Total GHG emissions from Agriculture, Base Year - 2010

Stationary and mobile combustion Field burning of agricultural wastesLivestock Crop Growing and Fertilizer Application

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Stationary and mobile combustion

Field burning of agricultural wastes

Livestock

Crop Growing and Fertilizer Application

kt CO2e

Agriculture Emissions by category and pollutant, 2010

CO2

CH4

N2O

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

kt C

O2e

Livestock emissions by type, 2010

SheepPoultryPigsManure liquid systemsHorsesGoatsDeerCattle

Almost 85% of total N2O

– fertiliser nitrogen use, manure applications and grazing returns to soils

– declined by 21.6% 1990-2010 from decline in livestock numbers (manure) and in fertiliser nitrogen use

CH4 affected by decline in numbers of livestock (15.5% decline over the period 1990-2010)

End User: Majority of emissions in the agriculture sector are not due to energy consumption.

32

Sectoral Analysis: LULUCFLULUCF Scotland

Figure 3.40 -10.25%Percentage of total emissions Figure 3.41


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eCreation and Maintenance of Settlements -10.3% -180.4 -0.8% -13.1Land Converted to Grass , Crop and Forest -49.8% -1,983.5 -11.1% -249.3Land Mainta ined as Crops , Grass and Forest 0.4% -26.0 -13.0% 1,066.6Wood Products & Harvesting 163.3% -1,177.7 57.1% -690.0Tota l 161.0% -3,367.7 -2.0% 114.1

Figure 3.42

BY-2010 2009-2010

Land Use Change

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e


-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

BaseYear

1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from LULUCF, Base Year - 2010

Land Maintained as Crops, Grass and ForestLand Converted to Grass, Crop and ForestCreation and Maintenance of SettlementsWood Products & HarvestingTotal

-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000

Land Maintained as Crops, Grass and Forest

Land Converted to Grass, Crop and Forest

Creation and Maintenance of Settlements

Wood Products & Harvesting

kt CO2e

Pollutant Contribution to LULUCF GHG Emissions, 2010

CO2

CH4

N2O

reduction in emissions from land conversion to cropland from grassland and forests.

largest source = Cropland (5,321 ktCO2e in 2010) (including maintenance and conversion to) releases carbon from clearing of biomass and from ploughing of soils.

Removals from the maintenance of, and conversion to, forestland and grassland. Long-term forest management (the extensive conifer plantations established in the mid-20th century are now reaching felling age, with reduced removals from forest but with increased carbon stocks in harvested wood products in recent years).

33

Sectoral Analysis: WasteWaste Scotland


Figure 3.44


Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eLandfi l l -68.4% -4,369.7 -3.3% -68.4Other -74.3% -37.2 3.4% 0.4Waste-water handl ing -7.9% -10.5 -0.2% -0.2Tota l -67.2% -4,417.4 -3.1% -68.2

Figure 3.45

4.05%

BY-2010 2009-2010

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Landfill

Waste-water handling

Other

kt CO2e

Pollutant contribution to Waste Management Emissions, 2010

CO2

CH4

N2O

Waste Management

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

kt C

O2e

Overall Contribution of Waste Management to2010 GHG emissions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

BaseYear

1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

kt C

O2e

Total GHG Emissions from Waste Management, Base Year - 2010OtherWaste-water handlingLandfill

The UK waste model methane from landfills based statistics on waste arisings, degradation rates of different components of waste, and UK-wide estimates of methane capture and oxidation, both in the landfill surface layer and in flares and gas engines.)– Scotland DON’T have any data specific to

methane combustion in flares and gas engines

Assumptions on progressive introduction of methane capture and oxidation systems within landfill management

34

Overview: Changes (due to new data and/or improved inventory estimation methodologies) since 2011 estimates

2009 Recalculations :– Business: (1,007 ktCO2e increase)

• industrial combustion allocation of (OPG) use in Scotland across the inventory time series and updated Inter-Departmental Business Register; increased estimates by around 500 ktCO2e in Scotland in 2009.

• UK HFC model for refrigeration and air conditioning equipment increased the estimates for Scotland in 2009 by 256 ktCO2e;

– Energy Supply: (324 ktCO2e increase)

• revision of OPG use in petroleum refining and revisions to gas oil allocations to the upstream oil and gas sector. • reduction in estimates for 2009 of emissions from closed coal mines due to updated analysis from the update to closed

coal mine emission estimates.– Waste Management: (149 ktCO2e increase)

• from revisions to the UK waste model and also revisions to use more DA-specific input data to derive country-specific estimates.

Base Year estimates have been for the following sectors:– Business: (789 kt CO2e increase)

• revision to industrial combustion allocation of OPG use in Scotland across the inventory time series and revisions to UK inventory allocations of gas oil.

– Agriculture: (194 kt CO2e decrease)

• revisions to emission estimates from agricultural soils.– Waste Management: (96 kt CO2e increase)

• revisions to the UK GHGI landfill waste model and revisions to the DA landfill waste method to utilise more country-specific data for waste disposals to landfill.

For more details of revisions to DA GHG emission estimates, see Appendix 7.

35

Uncertainties: By Source

UK (+-16%).

England (+-14%)

Scotland (+-27%), Wales (+-19%)

Northern Ireland (+-38%)

Scottish uncertainties high:– LULUCF sources– N2O from agric soils– F-Gases: 2010 dispersed and heavily

modelled and uncertain:• In 1995, >80% of F-gas industrial

sources (manufacture, Aluminium production etc.)

• 2010, ~70% refrigeration sources (UK F-gas model) ~ 20% from aerosols

Base Year Latest Year (2010)

Gas (kt CO2e) Central Estimate

Uncertainty Introduced on total

Central Estimate

Uncertainty Introduced on total

Scotland

Carbon Dioxide CO2 50,942 10% 41,339 10%

Methane CH4 11,860 31% 5,581 22%

Nitrous Oxide N2O 6,666 260% 5,016 271%

HFC 113 8% 1,182 7%

PFC 87 17% 49 58%

SF6 31 17% 47 20%

Total 69,699 26% 53,214 27%

From 2012 DA GHGI report: Appendix 1- Table A1.1 Estimated Uncertainties in the DA GHG Inventories: Base Years, 2010 and Trend

36

36

Drivers to Scotland / DA GHGI Improvement

• Monitoring against targets (Climate Change (Scotland) Act , WG CC Strategy, NI DoE

development of targets is on-going), carbon budgets

• GHGI data underpins emission projections, policy appraisal, and cost-benefit analysis

of policies and programmes

• Reduce data uncertainty (overshadows trends in some sectors)

• Improve data accuracy & sensitivity: (1) better understanding of opportunities for

GHG savings, (2) reflect local policy impacts

37

37

Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (1)

STRATEGIC ISSUES

EU ETS data needed earlier from regulators to feed into DUKES data, as in other MS (benefit to UK GHGI also)

Needs more resources for regulators (SEPA etc.) & stakeholder relationships with DECC

ENHANCE SCOTLAND-SPECIFIC DATA / SURVEYS

e.g. Agriculture inventory method needs to be more detailed if the GHGI is to be sensitive enough to reflect changes in breeds, feeds, manure management…

Develop more rigorous data capture systems, include local research findings (Emission Factors & Activity Data)

38

38

Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (2)

DEVELOP NEW DATA MECHANISMS

Very little local data on energy use for domestic, commercial, small-scale industry….

Need more bottom-up data. Develop data reporting requirements and access more information from local fuel suppliers, gas grid operators, oil merchants etc.

ENSURE FULL ACCESS TO EXISTING DATA

More electronically available data, less paper-based regulation. Establish data supply agreements with key operators / organisations, e.g. to overcome barriers of data confidentiality.

Need more bottom-up data and ability to correctly interpret available data. Recent example is the need to better understand precise fuel types used in major EU ETS facilities, to help resolve data discrepancies with DUKES energy statistics.

39

Summary of points

Good Scottish GHG inventory = good quality Scottish activity data and emission factors – – access to latest research, access to your data gathering systems for policy reporting, more

surveys, better surveys etc.

Transport GHGI data at UK level – resolved to sales data. – Availability of both DUKES-constrained and unconstrained data,

Waste sector model – limitations, assumptions needed (UK and Scotland level)– DON’T have any data specific to methane combustion in flares and gas engines

Very limited energy data – no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. total

allocation of gas, coal, oil use is not known

Agricultural statistics

Better EUETS integration needed– Time– Willingness from UK/Scottish stats

Further integration with Policy makers to provide policy-specific data or reporting outputs.

End Users model: Electricity data by sector are very limited for Scotland, Wales, N Ireland, England, so there is high uncertainty on sector allocation.

40

Devolved Administration GHG inventory Report

http://naei.defra.gov.uk/report_link.php?report_id=709

Spreadsheet on detailed data

Spreadsheet for Graphs and tables

http://naei.defra.gov.uk/report_link.php?report_id=709

41

Glen Thistlethwaite

Manager, DA GHG inventory

Ricardo-AEAThe Gemini BuildingFermi AvenueHarwellDidcotOX11 0QR

t: +44 (0)870 190 6584

e: [email protected] w: http://www.ricardo-aea.com

Justin Goodwin

Director

Aether99 Milton ParkAbingdon, OX14 4RY UK

t: +44 1243 512932 | Mobile: +44 7525 211 475.

e: [email protected]

w: www.aether-uk.com w: www.environmenttools.com



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Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether)

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