Scottish Independence Forum 3 June13 (Summary)

Informing “The Question”: 3rd June 2013

Philip Bryers

Dr. Ted GrossardtDr. Keiron Bailey

Michael MarraDavid Torrance

Event Team

T. Grossardt(ComDec)

M. Marra(U. Dundee)

B. Gall(U3A)

K. Bailey(ComDec)

M. Whatley(U. Dundee)

D. Torrance(5MQ)

Event Attendees

Aims of the Event

• 1. To help those present to gain a better understanding of the underlying issues associated with the referendum in September 2014, and

• 2. To use the Structured Public Involvement (SPI) approach to assess what themes the audience deems most significant in determining their stance on the independence question.

What Have Been Your Primary Sources for Information About the Question? (pick 3)

Radio

Newsp

aper

Television

Onlin

e-Websit

e

Socia

l media

Disc

ussion w

it...

Oth

er

28

22

38

5

32

0

7

1. Radio2. Newspaper3. Television4. Online-Website5. Social media6. Discussion with friends,

family, others7. Other

Have You Decided How You’ll Vote Yet?

Yes, I’m

Quite

...

I’m Pre

tty Sur...

I’m Le

aning To...

I Reall

y Hav

e ...

37%

9%

33%

22%

1. Yes, I’m Quite Certain2. I’m Pretty Sure I Know

How I’ll Vote3. I’m Leaning Toward A

Particular Decision4. I Really Have No Idea

Relevance?Do we need a new vision for the

union now?

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

17%

0%

5%

2%

19%

14%

19%

7%

17%

1. Not relevant at all2. ...3. ...4. ...5. ...6. ...7. ...8. ...9. Extremely relevant

Relevance?How will an independent Scotland

pay her way?

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

3%0% 0% 0%

77%

8%8%

3%3%


Relevance?Will we join European Union

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

3%0% 0% 0%

77%

9%

3%6%

3%


Relevance?Will we join NATO?

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

3%

0% 0%

6%

50%

3%

11%11%

17%


Relevance?Will we remove Trident

immediately?

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

9%

0%

12%

3%

35%

3%3%

0%

35%


Relevance?Would we have a constitution and

who would write it?

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

3%0% 0% 0%

72%

11%8%

0%

6%


Relevance?How and when would we judge

the success of independence

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

43%

5%

0%

5%

21%

7%5%

7%7%


Relevance?Should we consider a federal

system?

Not r

eleva

nt at a

ll ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Extre

mely re

levant

33%

9%

2%

0%

24%

7%

2%

4%

18%


6.36.34.64.3

6.55.87.7

5.0

8.3

5.55.75.96.47.5

7.38.3

4.6

7.68.0

6.46.86.86.2

6.27.68.4

5.96.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

How

doe

s th

eex

peri

ence

of

unio

n ov

er t

hepa

st 3

00 y

ears

matt

er?

Wha

t w

ill o

urec

onom

y lo

oklik

e?

Wou

ld c

urre

ntpr

opos

edch

ange

ds t

o th

ew

elfa

re s

yste

mbe

con

tinu

ed?

Wha

t ab

out

our

pens

ions

?

Will

we

join

Euro

pean

Uni

on

Wou

ld w

e ha

vean

arm

y?

If n

ot t

he Q

ueen

,th

en w

ho?

Who

will

gov

ern

us?

- pol

itica

lin

stitu

tion

s

How

and

whe

nw

ould

we

judg

eth

e su

cces

s of

inde

pend

ence

Relevance?

How does the experience of union over the past 300 years matter?Do we need a new vision for the union now?How will an independent Scotland pay her way? What will our economy look like? How much income would North Sea Oil provide? Will we use the £, the Euro, or a new currency?Would current proposed changeds to the welfare system be continued? Will there be more investment in welfare in an independent Scotland?Would the education system stay the same?What about our pensions?What about occupational persions?Will I need a Scottish passport? Cost? Will we join European UnionWill we join NATO?Will we join the UN Would we have an army?Will we remove Trident immediately? Will we still have the Queen as our figurehead? If not the Queen, then who?Would we have a constitution and who would write it? What would our media look like? Who will govern us? - political institutionsWill our cultural output change?How much influence will Scotland have on large blocs?How and when would we judge the success of independenceShould we consider a federal system?Is the party political complexion of an independent Scotland significant?

To what extent will the likely result of the 2015 UK general election influence your vote?

Not a

t all

Only sli

ghtly

Moderat

ely

Considera

bly

It will

matter...

43%

18%

11%

18%

11%

1. Not at all2. Only slightly3. Moderately4. Considerably5. It will matter greatly

Of the Questions We’ve Posed Today, How Many of Them Do You Believe Will be Answered by September 18, 2014?

Most

of All o

f...

The Majorit

y

About Half

Mayb

e One Q

uar...

Almost

None of...

2%

13%

22%

33%

29%1. Most of All of Them2. The Majority3. About Half4. Maybe One Quarter5. Almost None of

Them

Do you consider yourself to be:

Entirely Sco

tt...

More

Scotti

sh ...

Equall

y Scotti

...

More

British

t...

Entirely Briti

...

Oth

er

11%

26%

2%

9%

4%

48%1. Entirely Scottish2. More Scottish than

British3. Equally Scottish and

British4. More British than

Scottish5. Entirely British6. Other

Do you believe an independent Scotland should have a written constitution?

74%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%1. Yes2. No

How satisfied are you with this process?

42%

10%

31%

0%

6%

0%

6%

0%

6% 1. Very unsatisfied2. 3. Moderately unsatisfied4. 5. Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied6. 7. Moderately satisfied8. 9. Very satisfied

Performance comparison with SPI processes

Rural Highway improvement (KY, 2000)

Transit Oriented Development (KY, 2002)

Noisewall Design (KY, 2004)

Bridge AAT (KY, 2005)

Bridge Meeting 1 (KY, 2005)




Bridge Meeting 5 (IN, 2005)

Bridge Meeting 6 (IN, 2005)

Land Use Planning (KY, 2005)

Noisewall Design (AZ, 2006)

Bridge Meeting (KY, 2007)




Bridge Meeting (IN, 2009)

Nuclear Plant Meeting (KY 2011)



Bridge Meeting (OH 2012)

Bridge Meeting (OH 2012)

Independence Forum (Scotland 2013)

VERSAILLES MOBILITY STUDY

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q-metric: Mean satisfaction with SPI Processes 2000-13

Mean process satisfaction where 1 = "awful" and 10 = "wonderful". Total 'n' > 4000.

About SPI

SPI is a high performance group involvement method to support decision making in complex and challenging resource allocation problems. The philosophy of SPI is to maximize justice from the viewpoint of multiple stakeholders and not to seek an infeasible "consensus." SPI forums are designed in collaboration with public agencies and contractors to address choices and to maximize the input of stakeholder valuations subject to financial, engineering, legal and other decision constraints. Citizen valuations on designs/plans are sought at open public meetings using electronic polling and scenario modeling or visualization. The data is gathered anonymously, simultaneously and independently and translated into guidance for the professionals using advanced analytic techniques. SPI is designed around a framework of Quality, Inclusion, Transparency and Efficiency. Objective process evaluation is therefore possible. This allows SPI to be evaluated against other potential methods such as deliberative democracy, focus groups, online surveys and other techniques. SPI maximizes fairness, efficiency in public involvement and resist gaming by established interest groups. It improves governance by facilitating the so-called "silent majority" who are often discouraged from participating in public goods management by process abuse, manipulation, or inefficiency.

SPI Highlights

Thirteen years of high performance participatory process innovation, design, delivery and measurementMore than forty successful public involvement projects.Variety of partners inc. Federal agencies (e.g. DoE, FHWA, FTA, NSF), State DoTs, MPOs, private consultants.More than ten thousand stakeholders involved.Fifty peer-review publications.Research awards e.g. Transportation Research BoardCommittee memberships on National Academies panels.Service on professional organizations, journal, grant proposal review from environmental management to civil engineering.Largest Arnstein Ladder data set published worldwide.Largest Q-metric data set for participatory processes.Structured Public Involvement……. Just Google it!

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Scottish Independence Forum 3 June13 (Summary)

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