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SDG FOOTPRINT OF ASIAN NDCs

EXPLORING SYNERGIES

BETWEEN DOMESTIC

POLICIES AND INTERNATIONAL

GOALS

SDG FOOTPRINT OF ASIAN NDCs

EXPLORING SYNERGIES

BETWEEN DOMESTIC

POLICIES AND INTERNATIONAL

GOALS

2 SDG Footprint of Asian NDCs: Exploring Synergies between Domestic Policies and International Goals

© The Energy and Resources Institute, 2017

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing to The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate organizations. Enquiries concerning reproduction should be sent to TERI

AuthorsNeha Pahuja, Fellow and Area Convener, Centre for Global Environment Research, TERIAishwarya Raj, Research Associate, Centre for Global Environment Research, TERI

AcknowledgementsThe study focuses on the analysis of the footprint of the Sustainable Development Goals on the Nationally Determined Contributions in the Asia–region. The scope, strength, and magnitude of the footprint alongside an in-depth analysis of ten countries have been covered in the report. We would like to acknowledge with much appreciation the crucial role of our colleagues at The Energy and Resources Institute — Manish Kumar Shrivastava, Aayushi Awasthy, K Y Valsa, Somya Jain, Shubham Sharma, Karan Mangotra, Swati Agarwal, and Barath Mahadevan. Sincere thanks to the designing and publishing team at TERI Press. We would also like to express gratitude and appreciation to our colleagues who worked with us briefly but helped us generously in the completion of this report—Vani Rijhwani, Shreya Sharma, and Siddhant Agarwal.

Design TeamSantosh Kumar SinghRajiv SharmaAnushree Tiwari Sharma Spandana ChatterjeeShinjini SenR K Joshi

For further information on NDC-SDG linkages in Asia, log on to <www.NDCfootprints.org>Pradeep DahiyaVarun Prakash Pandey

Supported by: This initiative is supported through the project “Developing Country Participation in Addressing Climate Change: Policy Instruments for Achieving NDCs ” by The Royal Norwegian Embassy in India.

Published by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)Website: www.teriin.org

For more informationThe Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Tel. : 2468 2100 or 2468 2111Darbari Seth Block E-mail : [email protected] Complex, Lodhi Road Fax : 2468 2144 or 2468 2145New Delhi – 110 003 Web : www.teriin.orgIndia India +91 • Delhi (0)11

3SDG Footprint of Asian NDCs: Exploring Synergies between Domestic Policies and International Goals

Foreword 5

1. Navigating Development Path through Climate Risks 7

2. Synergising Climate Action and Sustainable Development Policies 11

3. SDG Footprint of Asian NDCs 13

3.1 Explicit Recognition of NDCs–SDG Linkages 14

3.2 Strength of NDCs–SDG Linkage 15

4. SDG Footprint of select NDCs 21

4.1 Bangladesh 22

4.2 China 24

4.3 India 26

4.4 Indonesia 28

4.5 Japan 30

4.6 Malaysia 32

4.7 Maldives 34

4.8 Saudi Arabia 36

4.9 Singapore 38

4.10 Vietnam 40

TABLE OF C NTENTS

LIST F TABLES AND FIGURES

Table 1: Impacts of climate change on Asia Region 8Table 2: Key criteria in the analysis 13Figure 1: Asia Region Snapshot 7Figure 2: Recognition of extreme events and national disaster in respective NDCs 10Figure 3: Type of NDC Submitted by countries in Asia 10Figure 4: Recognition of climate concerns in SDG targets 12Figure 5: Asian NDCs with explicit SDG linkages 14Figure 6 :Narrative of NDC-SDG Linkage 16Figure 7: Asia analysis for NDC-SDG Linkage: summarizing the linkage trends 18

5

Both SDGs and NDCs are high on the global as well as the national policy agendas. Article 4 of the Paris Agreement calls for Parties to design ‘nationally determined’ action plan based on their national contexts. Since SDGs evolved from MDGs, the experience with MDGs is expected to have provided development context defining national circumstances for INDCs. Both the SDGs and NDCs therefore are arguably conceived within the same national context and vision. Their implementation is further likely to coevolve in a manner that strengthens synergies between the two global agendas.

Unlike SDGs, which have a time frame of 2030, INDCs are provisioned with a five year cycle of revision, though most countries have 2030 as the target year of their first NDC. While the achievement of SDGs is primarily a responsibility of national governments, we have seen, in recent years, a greater momentum across various actors on climate action, particularly focusing on mitigation through renewable energy and energy efficiency but also on adaptation at a nascent stage. It is of great relevance; therefore, to have an understanding of the ways in which implementation of INDCs can also lead to greater participation of different actors in achievement of SDGs. Besides, countries will also have a five yearly opportunity to revisit their progress on SDGs and NDCs and strengthen the synergies in implementation.

Asia, being the fastest growing region as well as source of significant flows of GHGs emissions in future, is critical for addressing climate change. It is also a region which is highly vulnerable to climate change. A vast majority of the global poor live in Asia, making the achievement of SDGs critical for the regions’ economic and social well-being. An assessment of the degree and forms of overlaps between the NDC goals and SDGs in Asian countries adds value to national as well as global imperatives in more ways than one. While at the national level, it will provide directions for enhancing synergies and efficiencies in implementation, at the regional and global levels it will offer useful insights on convergences and divergences on developmental visions of Asian countries, scope of mutual learning, regional cooperation, and specific directions for building synergies between global mechanisms to support SDGs and NDCs. Mapping the overlaps and tracking progress along these lines will prove transformational for future decision making.

This report, by providing an approach to map SDGs into NDCs, and assessing this mapping for Asian countries offers the first essential step in further strengthening institutional linkages at multiple governance levels for achieving SDGs and NDCs simultaneously and efficiently.

F REWORD

Dr Ajay MathurDirector General, TERI


Asia is one of the most vibrant and dynamic regions of the world in terms of geography, polity, and demography. The region faces

critical developmental challenges with large number of its population below the poverty line and without access to basic standards of living. Impacts of changing climate will intensify the already persistent developmental challenges in the region. In recent years, the region has been witnessing dramatic shifts in its socio-economic constitution driven by rapid increase in

population, high economic growth, and increase in urbanisation. It is therefore an opportune time for countries in the region to transition to a low carbon, climate resilient high, and growth development trajectory as majority of the development will happen now for most of these countries.

The region has also seen many natural disasters and extreme events on account of the changing climate. So much so that climate change is now central to understanding the developmental

1. Navigating Development Path through Climate Risks

Figure 1: Asia Region Snapshot


Extreme Events and Risk Observed Trend and Severe Climate Anomalies in the Region

Intense Rains and Floods

� Increased risk of flood-related deaths, injuries infectious diseases, and mental disorders

� Increased riverine, coastal, and urban flooding leading to widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods, and settlements

Recurrent floods in Bangladesh, Nepal and north-east states of India during 2002, 2003, and 2004; a record 944 mm of rainfall in Mumbai, India, on 26 to 27 July, 2005 led to loss of over 1,000 lives with loss of more than US$250 million; floods in Surat, Barmer, and in Srinagar during summer monsoon season of 2006;17 May 2003 floods in southern province of Sri Lanka were triggered by 730 mm rain; overall increased frequency of precipitation.Increased occurrence of extreme rains causing flash floods in Vietnam; landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004 in the Philippines, and floods in Cambodia in 2000; Increased ratio of rainfall from wet to dry seasons since 1995 till 2005.Increasing frequency of extreme rains in western and southern parts including Changjiang river, and decrease in northern regions; more floods in Changjiang river in past decade; more frequent floods in North-East China since 1990s; more intense summer rains in East China; severe flood in 1999; seven-fold increase in frequency of floods since 1950s.

Rising Air Temperatures and Heat Waves

� Increased risk of heat-related mortality

� Water shortage in arid areas

Increasing incidences of daily maximum temperature >35°C, decrease in extremely low temperature. Japan will stand to be the most vulnerable to reducing rice yields.Increase in frequency of short duration heatwaves in recent decade, increasing warmer days and nights in recent decades. Eastern China, Southern Indo-China peninsula and the northern part of South Asia will stand to be the most vulnerable to reducing rice yields.In Pakistan where a projected temperature increase of 1.5°C – 3°C would result in wheat yields declining in the Swat district while the Chitral district will experience in the same.

Droughts

� Increased risk of drought-related water and food shortage causing malnutrition

� Increased risk of crop failure and lower crop production could lead to food insecurity and water shortage in arid areas

Increase in area affected by drought has exceeded 6.7 Mha since 2000 in Beijing, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia and North China; increase in dust storm affected area.50% of droughts associated with El Niño; consecutive droughts in 1999 and 2000 in Pakistan and N-W India led to sharp decline in water tables; consecutive droughts between 2000 and 2002 caused crop failures, mass starvation and affected ~11 million people in Orissa; droughts in N-E India during summer monsoon of 2006.Droughts normally associated with ENSO years in Myanmar, Laos, Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam; droughts in 1997 to 1998 caused massive crop failures and Water shortages and forest fires in various parts of Philippines, Laos, and Indonesia.

paradigm in Asia. The region’s geography makes it more susceptible to natural disasters and gradual events, such as melting Himalayan glaciers and rising sea levels. The impact of changing patterns of rainfall and monsoon along with temperature on various sectors is also visible and so is the increased variability in weather events. The communities in the region are dependent on climate sensitive natural resources for livelihood and income generation since their economy is still transitioning to a tertiary one from a primary-agrarian one. It cannot be ignored that changing

climate already has, and will continue to make the communities even more vulnerable. The issues which concern Asia are not limited to this dual encumbrance, but also extend to the need for accurately predicting the impacts of climate change as well as incorporating the old and the new, such as glacier melts, sea level rise, etc.

It would be imperative to tailor domestic policy agendas according to the country’s national circumstances while dealing with the effects of climate change that impact these countries disproportionality. This puts onus on policy-

Table 1: Impacts of climate change on Asia Region


Extreme Events and Risk Observed Trend and Severe Climate Anomalies in the Region

Sea-level rise and Coastal Ecosystems

� Coastal ecosystems in Asia sinking under increasing sea level

� Temperature increase also impacting coastal biodiversity

A decline in coral reefs, as observed in the case of Japan’s seaweeds.Vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau, will observe a shift from alpine vegetation to forests and shrub lands.

Cyclones/Typhoons

� Damage to infrastructure, livelihoods, and settlements

Number and intensity of strong cyclones increased since 1950s; 21 extreme storm surges in 1950 to 2004 of which 14 occurred during 1986 to 2004.Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea on the decline since 1970 but intensity is increasing causing severe floods in terms of damages to life and property.On an average, 20 cyclones cross the Philippines Area of Responsibility with about 8 to 9 landfall each year; with an increase of 4.2 in the frequency of cyclones entering PAR during the period 1990 to 2003.

makers to frame policies that enable fulfilment of their respective country’s developmental goals while simultaneously tackling the impacts of climate change. The region has shown exemplary efforts and willingness to be part of global response to combating climate change. Their participation in the Paris Agreement is an evidence for their intent to undertake collective action despite their capabilities being at a lower end. The participation in the international regime is in the spirit of building a better environment for the future generations (a principle ubiquitously espoused by Agenda 2030 as well). Some of the nationally determined contributions (NDC’s) reflect that policy-makers have already started to think about the dual challenges and need to synergize actions. For example, India’s NDC suggests that its contributions take into account its capacity to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Similarly, SIDs such as Maldives, has aspired to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and build internal capacities in order to build a resilient and sustainable future. Following suit were 38 out of the 44 countries in the Asian region that have sustainable development as the

key agenda or contextual pre-requisite for action, synonymous with their NDC implementation.1 This implies that the region is committed to mitigate their GHG emissions and adapt to rising sea levels, intense droughts, acute food shortages, more destructive storms and floods, and other catastrophic effects. These countries, thus, are determined to protect the rights of the future generations.

Rapid developmental growth rates, economic activity, and urbanisation in the region have led to increasing GHG emissions. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, annual global GHG emissions have increased by 10 GtCO2eq between 2000 and 2010. This increase was directly coming from energy supply (47 %), industry (30%), transport (11%) and buildings (3%) sectors. These emissions are likely to grow as the countries pursue greater economic activities in order to alleviate their developmental challenges. It is important, therefore, that all countries transition to a sustainable growth trajectory now. Yet there are notable concerns as most of the countries in the region do not have the capacity, both infrastructural and institutional, to deal with

1. Hijioka, Y., E. Lin, J.J. Pereira, R.T. Corlett, X. Cui, G.E. Insarov, R.D. Lasco, E. Lindgren, and A. Surjan, 2014: Asia. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2. Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh, 2007: Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

1 These countries in their NDCs had explicitly referred to sustainable actions for implementing NDCs.


"As a result of climate change, it is anticipated that the incidence of extreme weather events, including heat waves, floods, and droughts will likely increase, as will climate change-linked disasters such as glacial lake outflows. The majority of Afghanistan’s population relies directly or indirectly on the available natural resources for their livelihoods so with these climatic changes the foundation of the country’s economy, stability, and food security is under threat" (Afghanistan NDC, p.2)

“Indonesia is also vulnerable to natural disasters that will likely to be exacerbated by climate change, especially in low-lying areas throughout the archipelago” (Indonesia NDC, p.1)

“Few countries in the world are as vulnerable to the effects of climate change as India is with its vast population that is dependent on the growth of its agrarian economy, its expansive coastal areas and the Himalayan region and islands. It also entails tradeoffs with economic growth and social development in the short run that needs to be factored in the policy matrix, where eradication of poverty is one of the foremost priorities.” (India NDC, p.4/5)

“Over the past 50 years, the average temperature in Vietnam has increased by approximately 0.5°C and the sea level has risen by about 20 cm. Extreme climate events have increased both in frequency and intensity. Climate change has made hazards, especially storms, floods and droughts, more intense” (Vietnam NDC, p.7)

“..To exacerbate matters, the Syrian crisis has led to the arrival of around 1.13 million registered refugees to the country, increasing Lebanon’s population by 30% in just over 2 years and adding stress to the already-stretched economy and natural resources.”(Lebanon NDC, p.2)

“Current research and studies suggest that flood, tropical cyclones, storm surge and drought are likely to be more frequent and severe in the years to come. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI-2011) calculated the vulnerability of 170 countries to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years, which reveals that Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country to climate change.” (Bangladesh NDC, p.10)

new challenges posed by climate change. Developing countries in the region have been demanding support in terms of finance, technology, and capacity building so are able to transition to a sustainable growth trajectory at a faster rate and that they are able to cope with the disproportionate adverse impacts of climate change. Asia comprises a diverse group of

countries. National circumstances and domestic context is crucial for countries to undertake a sustainable developmental trajectory as each country is at a different stage of their economic development and deal with challenges that are unique to each country. The diversity of NDC goals reinstates the same.

30Absolute Emissions

Reductions

4Carbon

Neutrality

4Reduction in Emission

Intensity of GDP

10Enhanced

carbon sink through forestry

15Increased

capacity of Renewable Energy

in Energy mix

Figure 2: Recognition of extreme-events and national disaster in respective NDCs

Reductions

Figure 3: Type of NDC Submitted by Countries in Asia


2. Synergising Climate Action and Sustainable Development Policies

The year 2015 witnessed two landmark international events: the historic climate change agreement under the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris in December 2015 and the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in September 2015. The Paris Agreement aims at keeping the rise in global temperatures well below 2°C with each country submitting its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining its intent to take climate action in the form of post 2020 goals. The set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets are aimed at setting the development agenda till 2030. The two agendas present mutually inclusive contingencies. Both climate action and sustainable development cannot be treated separately as the idea of sustainable development is closely linked to climate change and vice versa; developmental policies can be designed to have climate co-benefits and vice versa. The NDCs have an agenda of establishing norms and frameworks targeting specific sectors to mitigate and adapt in the realm of economic growth. Therefore, strategies that will lead to alternate methods of ‘development’ for the nation states in the Global South are a requisite. For example, the advances towards renewable sources of energy would not only help in mitigating GHG emissions from the energy sector but also help develop new sources of efficient, affordable, and durable energy resources. In this capacity, countries within Asia could develop their R&D skills, which would enhance their overall capability. On the other hand, SDG 13 will help implement climate policies thereby allowing NDCs to bridge the gap between climate action and sustainable development. In fact, this idea of ‘co-benefits’ is a strong reason for adopting national policies in the context of evident synergies between NDCs and SDGs.

Formulating policies and designing actions is the first step in achieving goals under either of the two global regimes. It will be efficient and effective if done in an integrated manner in order to maximise the synergies between the two sets of goals. This requires integration of the domestic policy-making, planning and implementation process, both horizontally (as each covers number of sectors and roles) and vertically (as action and impact is implemented and felt locally). The two agendas were agreed at two different platforms internationally and it is most likely, that they were also dealt with independently and separately at the domestic level. This is much evident if we analyse how and where concerns of climate change are reflected in the SDG targets.

Figure 4 provides a snapshot of SDG targets where climate change concerns are reflected in some way or the other. These can be categorised into two categories: (i) Explicit Linkage where climate concerns are explicitly mentioned in or as targets. For instance, mention of key-words like ‘vulnerable’, ‘resilience’, ‘exposure’, ‘vulnerability’, ‘climate’, ‘extreme events’, ‘environmental shocks’ and ‘disasters’, ‘renewable energy’, ‘ecosystem’, ‘water scarcity’, ‘water-borne diseases’, ‘resources efficiency’, ‘efficiency’, ‘sustainable lifestyles’, amongst others; (ii) Implicit Linkage where the targets implicitly address one or more concerns of climate change. For instance, where target/indicators have been widely discussed in literature as a means to achieve or assess mitigation or adaptation outcome. Targets which are imperative for economic growth and development but are a little farfetched in order to address a climate concern have not been considered to have explicit or implicit linkage. For instance, Target 3.5 on strengthening the prevention and treatment of substance abuse, including narcotic drug abuse and harmful use of alcohol. This makes it evident


that SDGs cover more than one global challenge. Thus, it may be noted that domestically, SDGs act as a guiding framework to pursue development. In doing so, there are challenges and determinants

like climate change that need to be taken into account in the policy-making and planning process.

Figure 4: Recognition of climate concerns in SDG targets

Goal 1 No Poverty

Goal 2 Zero Hunger

Goal 3 Good Health & Wellbeing

Goal 4 Quality Education

Goal 5 Gender Equality

Goal 6 Clean Water & Sanitation

Goal 7 Affordable & Clean Energy

Goal 8 Decent Work & Economic Growth

Goal 9 Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure

Goal 10 Reduced Inequalities

Goal 11 Sustainable Cities & Communities

Goal 12 Responsible Consumption & Production

Goal 13 Climate Action

Goal 14 Life Below Water

Goal 15 Life on Land

Goal 16 Peace, Justice & Strong Institutions

Goal 17 Partnerships for the Goals


3. SDG Footprint of Asian NDCs

The ‘nationally’ driven climate action plans submitted by parties under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement calls for Parties to design

an action plan based on their national contexts. NDCs present goals and targets that each country has set for itself to mitigate its GHG emissions and to adapt to climate change. The NDCs also stress on each countries’ domestic challenges, needs and their idea of fairness. The relevance to uphold sustainable development in mitigation and adaptation actions have been emphasized throughout Decision 1/CP.21 (Paragraph 108 & 109.a) which reiterates the importance of complimentary while implementing policies to achieve multiple benefits. The increasing need to align climate action with sustainable development laid the premise for initiating a study on the NDC-SDG linkages. This report explores the linkages of NDCs and SDGs and captures if these linkages are evident in each countries’ NDC.

For this analysis, all the NDC documents were reviewed using content/textual analysis as an approach. This means that keywords were identified and searched for in the text of each NDC. These keywords correspond to targets under the 17 SDGs. For example, the analysis ranged from prominent and clear discoveries of keywords, such as ‘poverty’, ‘energy efficiency’, ‘waste management’ as well as implicit derivatives of the same, such as ‘..Promote smart agriculture for poverty alleviation (pp.4, Bhutan) ‘environmentally sound technologies for industries (pp.10, Iran)’ and ‘..Build its capacity to ensure a safe, sustainable and resilient and future.. (pp.1, Maldives)’.The keyword comparison was conducted with each target (total of 169) under each one of the 17 SDGs. The discoveries were further analysed for the strength of the match, whether they were direct matches (presence in the NDC goals) or indirect matches (presence

in the background information to NDC goals) and how strongly the contributions/NDC goals matched with the SDG targets. The analysis provided information on three dimensions:

� Whether there is an explicit mention of complementarity of NDC and SDG goals? � Whether there is exact keyword match in the NDC text so as to indicate some linkage with SDG? � What is the strength of match on the basis of whether there were direct matches or indirect matches and the nature of goals (qualitative/ quantitative)?

To summarise, key criteria in the analysis were as follows:

Table 2: Key criteria in the analysis

Criteria

Dimension 1

No explicit mention of SDGs and linkage

Explicit mention of SDGs and linkage

Dimension 2

Keyword match (SDG-NDC linkage) present in background/context of NDC

Keyword match (SDG-NDC linkage) present in NDC goals

Dimension 3

Match present in NDC goals, but qualitative

Match present in NDC goals, but quantitative

Match present in NDC goals at more than one instant


Content analysis was considered as an appropriate approach as there is a wide range of NDC type, which is qualitative more often than not. And, most of the contributions served to match qualitatively with SDG targets rather than direct quantitative matches. This approach, however, has limitations of being subjective with a possibility of allowing differences in interpretation of the text and of differences in the framing of the text itself. Nevertheless, analysis is able to inform about the potential linkages of NDCs and SDGs and highlights where such linkages are strong.

3.1 Explicit Recognition of NDCs – SDG Linkages

All the NDC documents were reviewed to see if there was explicit mention of ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ and/or ‘SDG’ in the NDC document. These keywords were found only in 7 of the 45 countries in the region, namely — India, Indonesia, Jordan, Laos People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Uzbekistan. Each mention was studied further to make an assessment of how far this linkage was integrated in the process of formulating the NDC and/or in contributions as part of the NDCs. There was a huge variation in terms of the mentions.

Countries like Nepal, which has witnessed recent disasters like the earthquake shattering its development trajectory, mention that it is imperative for it to tackle climate change simultaneously while achieving SDGs. Whereas, other like Laos PDR only mention SDGs in just one of the mitigation contributions/actions. In this case, the country envisions developing an overall renewable energy policy that also supports the achievement of sustainable development goals. Others like India, mention more than one goal. For instance, India in its NDC mentions that its contributions take into account the sustainable development goals and specifically highlights Goal 1, Goal 2, Goal 3, Goal 4, Goal 5, Goal 6, Goal 7, Goal 8, Goal 11, Goal 13, and Goal 17, among others. Similarly, Indonesia’s NDC takes into account Goal 2, Goal 3, Goal 5, Goal 6, Goal 7, Goal 8, Goal 9, Goal 11, Goal 13, Goal 14, and Goal 15. Indonesia’s NDC also talks of consistency in its commitment to deal with climate change and SDGs. Taking it a step forward, Pakistan’s NDC

has made qualitative assessment of sustainable development benefits of mitigation options that have been identified in its NDCs. Countries like Uzbekistan have mentioned the criteria of SDGs in its preamble, ‘…. in accordance with the national circumstances and sustainable development goals… the Republic of Uzbekistan has identified and presents its NDCs’. The idea of sustainable development and SDGs is overwhelmingly present in Jordan’s NDC. So much so that Jordan’s NDC

Figure 5: Asian NDCs with explicit SDG linkages


elaborates on aligning SDGs and NDGs, Jordan’s thinking on “Sustainable development-oriented socioeconomic adaptation” and “Climate Change and Sustainable Development Circumstances in Jordan”. Countries like Sri Lanka have implied that climate change concerns override the SDGs when it calls for a fair and ambitious Paris Agreement in its NDC as imperative for countries to achieve climate change as well as SDGs.

3.2 Strength of NDCs–SDG Linkage

All the NDC documents were reviewed to see if there was explicit mention of prominent keywords such as, ‘poverty’, ‘vulnerable people’, eradication ’ for its linkage with Goal 1; ‘food security, agricultural resilience, agricultural production, hunger’ for its linkage with Goal 2; ‘clean energy, renewable energy, energy efficiency’ for its linkage with Goal 7; ‘water management, water conservation’ for its linkage with Goal 6; ‘ecosystem conservation, prevent degradation, biodiversity protection’ for its linkage with Goals 14 and 15, among others. Further, it was seen if there were implicit derivatives of these keywords. For example, ‘promote smart agriculture for poverty alleviation…’ for its linkage with Goals 1 and 2’, ‘Access to new and environmentally sound technologies for industries…’ for its linkage with Goals 9 and 12 and ‘..build its capacity to ensure a safe, sustainable and resilient and future..’ for its linkage with Goals 11 and 13. Some of the examples are highlighted in Figure 6 along with an indication of the linkage therein.

Undoubtedly, there were a range of such linkages discovered in several NDCs. However, some were prominent and some were more implicit. Whether these linkages were present in the background or context setting part of the NDCs or in the NDC goals itself, was also analysed. For example, Bhutan’s NDC reads as ‘..in existing industries through.. cleaner technology, energy efficiency.. environmental management..’ (pp.4) which matches with SDG Target 9.4 (By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes, with all countries taking action in accordance with their respective capabilities). It also seeks to ‘..Promote industrial estate.. in line with efficient, clean.. green industry development..’(pp.4), in line with SDG Target 9.2 (Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, significantly raise industry’s share of employment and gross domestic product, in line with national circumstances, and double its share in least developed countries). Both these actions in the NDC present an outlook for sustainably recharging industries. However, the former was present in

Figure 5: Asian NDCs with explicit SDG linkages


Figure 6 :Narrative of NDC-SDG Linkage



the NDC goal itself while the latter was not a vehement NDC goal presented by the country, and yet found a niche in the context of the NDC document of the country.

All the NDC documents were further reviewed to see if there was a qualitative or quantitative match and if there were more than one such instances of a match. Quantitative match was considered stronger than a qualitative match. For example India’s NDC mentions ‘..more than 5 times increase in Renewable Capacity..’(pp. 35) and this was considered strong as compared to Cambodia’s NDC that mentions ‘..promoting energy efficiency by end users..’(pp.6). Similarly, Mongolia mentions in its NDC, ‘..increase the share of private hybrid road vehicles.. to approximately 13% by 2030..’(pp.2) is a stronger match to Target 11.2, than Azerbaijan’s NDC, reading ‘..’..Environment friendly public transportation. low-carbon standards for fuel efficiency and emissions produced from automobiles..’(pp.3). If a match, be it quantitative or qualitative, was encountered more than once, then the observed reiteration of that action would be evidently leading to stronger matches. The emphasis added on that particular action would enhance its prerogative in terms of a country’s climate policy, designating it to the rank of highest match. For example North Korea’s NDC reads as ‘..capacity building.. integrated waste management..’(pp.13) and also ‘Establish system for efficient water resource management ‘(pp.12), both of which correspond to Target 6.5.

The number of instances of such matches were also captured for each country’s NDC. There were some obvious goals that reflected multiple times in many NDCs leading with Goals 7, 13, 17, and 11. Thus, indicating that the region is preparing itself for strategies that focus on climate resilient low carbon development with an important role of renewable energy and sustainable cities. It is however important to note that partnerships for the goals and international cooperation also reflect strongly in the NDCs. Linkage in case of some goals like Goal 4, 5, 10, and 16 were surprisingly quite low. Figure 7: Asia analysis for NDC-SDG Linkage:

summarizing the linkage trends



Most surprisingly, there are only 4 mentions of mainstreaming gender concerns in the NDCs whereas SDGs envisage mainstreaming gender in national policies. Also, while both MDGs and SDGs have stressed the importance of education

in pursuing development, the importance of education and awareness is not reflected in NDCs. It is very surprising when the Target 4.7 aims to ensure that education is imparted on sustainable development and sustainable lifestyles.


4. SDG Footprint of Select NDCs

The following section provides information on the SDG footprint of country NDCs along with their economic and developmental

status and international GHG mitigation pledges to combat climate change. The countries included here are amongst the top 10% of the emitters in Asia. This includes countries, such as China, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia. Countries, such as Korea and Iran could not be included due to lack of appropriate data. Countries, such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore are also included. Bangladesh and Maldives is included as the two countries will be most affected by climate change the most (being a LDC and SIDS, respectively).

Each country’s fact sheet provides details regarding the country’s key developmental indicators and GHG emissions; along with a snapshot of its commitment to combat climate change; and an analysis of the SDG footprint on its NDC. The NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC were the primary data source for the analysis. Other sources used for the analysis include CAIT Climate Data Explorer for historical emissions data and World Bank’s Data Bank for World Development Indicators for socio-economic data and UNDP for data on HDI. Each country’s factsheet gives details of country’s socio-economic indicators and GHG emissions along with the future emissions trajectory for 2020 and 2030.

The trajectory is developed for each country on the basis of its Copenhagen Pledge and NDC goals. In developing these trajectories, the GDP data was forecasted under the assumption that the countries would grow at the same average growth rate for the next fifteen years as they have in the past fifteen years. The emission intensity was calculated for the years 1990, 2005, and 2013 using GDP and historical emissions data. BAU emissions were calculated by using the emission intensity for 2013 as a proxy for emissions growth rates. The resultant trend reflects a constant growth rate.

Each factsheet also gives the details of analysis of SDG footprint of countries’ NDC. The footprint highlights the SDG targets, where the SDG and NDC linkage was found. It further gives details of the strength of this linkage. The strength represents the degree of linkage of NDC goal and the SDG targets. ‘1’ represents the presence of a keyword match, which is present only in the background of the NDC document. ‘2’ represents qualitative keyword match of NDC goals with the SDG targets. ‘3’ represents quantitative match of NDC goals with the SDG goals. ‘4’ represents high degree match (more than one instance) of a NDC goal with a SDG target.


Bangladesh

Bangladesh GDP (% of world GDP)

Population (% of world

population)

Percentage GHG

Emissions (% of world

GHG emissions,

2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG

Emissions 2013 (tCO2e per capita)

Per Capita Energy Use

Human Development

Index

2005 0.36% 2.19% 0.32% 121.6696 0.851253186 159.4757178 0.506

2015 0.47% 2.19% 0.36% 163.6298 1.041184228 215.8499396 0.579

Copenhagen Pledge

Not Submitted

Nationally Determined Contributions

Base Year: BAUTarget Year:2030 Targets

� Unconditional Target: Bangladesh will reduce its GHG emissions in the power, transport, and industry sectors by 12 MtCO2e by 2030 or 5% below BAU emissions for those sectors, based on existing resources. � Conditional Target : Bangladesh will reduce its GHG emissions in the power, transport, and industry sectors by 36 MtCO2e by 2030 or 15% below BAU emissions, subject to appropriate international support in the form of finance, investment, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, B

ang

lad

esh


China

China GDP (% of world GDP)


population)

Percentage GHG

Emissions (% of world GHG

emissions, 2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG



Human Development

Index

2005 9.80% 20.01% 18.99% 7267.0607 5.574096202 1393.691324 0.646

2015 17.20% 18.66% 25.93% 11735.0071 8.645336678 2213.759327 0.738

Copenhagen Pledge

Base Year: 2005Target Year: 2020Pledge: China will endeavour to lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40%–45% by 2020 compared to the 2005 level, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020, and increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic meters by 2020 from the 2005 levels.


Base Year: 2005Target Year: 2030Targets

� To lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level. � To increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters on the 2005 level. � To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20%


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, C

hin

a


India

India GDP (% of world GDP)


population)

Percentage GHG


emissions, 2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG



Human Development

Index

2005 4.83% 17.57% 5.15% 1970.257 1.72176154 451.0564549 0.536

2015 6.95% 17.85% 6.43% 2909.0566 2.275905901 606.4300132 0.624

Copenhagen Pledge

Base Year: 2005Target Year: 2020Pledge: India will endeavour to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25% by 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level



� To reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 percent by 2030 from 2005 level. � To create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. � To achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, I

nd

ia


Indonesia

Indonesia GDP (% of world

GDP)


population)

Percentage GHG


emissions, 2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG Emissions

2013 (tCO2e per capita)


Human Development

Index

2005 2.03% 3.47% 1.59% 609.543 2.694056707 794.532072 0.632

2015 2.47% 3.51% 1.64% 744.3403 2.962332977 865.667614 0.689

Copenhagen Pledge

Base Year: Not IndicatedTarget Year: 2020Pledge: Emission reduction up to 26% by 2020


Base Year: BAUTarget Year: 2030Targets

� Conditional Target: Reduce its GHG emissions by 29% against the business as usual scenario by 2030 and up to 41% with international support. � Unconditional Target: Reduce its GHG emissions up to 41% with international support against the business as usual scenario.


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, I

nd

on

esia


Japan

Japan GDP (% of world

GDP)


population)

Percentage GHG Emissions

(% of world GHG emissions,

2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG Emissions

2013 (tCO2e per capita)


Human Development

Index

2005 5.99% 1.96% 3.41% 1303.4118 10.20099552 4062.979049 0.873

2015 4.44% 1.73% 2.99% 1353.3473 10.6279406 3570.60976 0.903

Copenhagen Pledge

Base Year: 1990Target Year: 2020Pledge: A 25% reduction of the 1990 level by 2020


Base Year: 2005Target Year:2030 Targets

� Post-2020 GHG emission reductions is at the level of a reduction of 26.0% by fiscal year (FY) 2030 compared to FY 2013 (25.4% reduction compared to FY 2005)


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, J

apan


Malaysia

Malaysia GDP (% of world

GDP)

Population (% of world population)

Percentage GHG


emissions, 2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG



Human Development

Index

2005 0.63% 0.40% 0.63% 239.3104 9.276990605 2548.030704 0.732

2015 0.71% 0.41% 0.67% 303.1518 10.28840905 2980.00256 0.789


Base Year: 2005Target Year:2030 Targets

� Reduce its GHG emission intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 relative to the emissions intensity of GDP in 2005. � Conditional Target: Reduce its GHG emission intensity of GDP by 10% by 2030 relative to the emissions intensity of GDP in 2005. � Unconditional Target: Reduce its GHG emission intensity of GDP by 35% by 2030 relative to the emissions intensity of GDP in 2005.


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, M

alay

sia


Maldives

Maldives GDP (% of world

GDP)


Percentage GHG


emissions, 2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG



Human Development

Index

2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.6714 2.091588785 700.9345794 0.622

2015 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 1.136 2.890585242 0.701

Copenhagen Pledge

Pledge: The Maldives looks forward to its mitigation action being registered and made publicly available. The country also looks forward to submitting national communications, including national inventory reports, on the basis of guidelines to be agreed by the Conference of the Parties, as stated in paragraph 5 of the Accord



� Reduce 10% of its GHG emissions unconditionally (under a BAU) by the year 2030, it could be scaled-up to 24% in a conditional manner. � Conditional Targets: The 10% reduction expressed above could be increased up to 24% in a conditional manner � Unconditional Targets: Reduce 10% of its GHG emissions unconditionally (under a BAU) by the year 2030.


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, M

ald

ives


Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

GDP (% of world

GDP)


Percentage GHG


emissions, 2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG



Human Development

Index

2005 1.26% 0.38% 0.12% 45.0704 14.17252941 4952.410747 0.767

2015 1.47% 0.43% 1.21% 546.8181 18.10592949 6363.393314 0.847

Copenhagen Pledge

Not Submitted



� List of actions under energy sector: methane recovery and flare minimization, renewable energy and carbon capture, and utilization of storage


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, S

aud

i Ara

bia


Singapore

Singapore GDP (% of world

GDP)


Percentage GHG


GHG emissions,

2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG



Human Development

Index

2005 0.35% 0.07% 0.11% 42.5954 9.985414095 5055.96632 0.839

2015 0.41% 0.08% 0.12% 52.9509 9.807244161 4880.40607 0.925

Copenhagen Pledge

Base Year: BAUTarget Year: 2020Pledge: Mitigation measures leading to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 16% below business as usual levels in 2020.



� Singapore communicates that it intends to reduce its emissions intensity by 36% from 2005 levels by 2030 and stabilize its emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030.


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, S

ing

apo

re


Vietnam

Vietnam GDP (% of world

GDP)


Percentage GHG


GHG emissions,

2013)

Absolute GHG

Emissions 2013

(MtCO2e)

Per Capita GHG



Human Development

Index

2005 0.38% 1.26% 0.48% 182.1352 2.210590578 500.6759507 0.618

2015 0.48% 1.25% 0.57% 256.7606 2.860539553 667.6464664 0.683

Copenhagen Pledge

Not Submitted



� GHG emissions will be reduced by 8% by 2030 compared to the business as usual scenario (Emission intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced by 20% compared to the 2010 levels; forest cover will be increased to the level of 45%). The above-mentioned contribution could be increased up to 25% with international support. � Conditional Target: The above-mentioned 8% contribution could be increased to 25% if international support is received, in which emission intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced by 30% compared to 2010 levels. � Unconditional Target: GHG emissions will be reduced by 8% by 2030 compared to the business as usual scenario (emission intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced by 20% compared to the 2010 levels; forest cover will be increased to the level of 45%).


ND

C-S

DG

lin

kag

e p

rofi

le, V

ietn

am


Bibliography � cait.wri.org. (2017). CAIT Emission Projections – Beta [online]. Available at: http://cait.wri.org/projections/#/?collection=projections%20ghg%20emissions%20data&maxYear=undefined&minYear=undefined [Accessed 7 April. 2017]. � databank.worldbank.org. (2017). DataBank | The World Bank [online]. Available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx [Accessed 1 May 2017]. � Development Alternatives. (2016). Avenues of Alignment between Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement in India [online], pp.1–37. Available at: http://www.devalt.org/Pdf/L2_SixThemePdfs/Climate%20SDG%20Paper.pdf?Tid=115 [Accessed 10 Feb. 2017]. � hdr.undp.org. (2016). UNDP | Human Development Reports [online]. Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI [Accessed 1 Jun. 2017]. � Hijioka, Y., Lin, E., Pereira, J. J., Corlett, R. T., Cui, X., Insarov, G. E., Lasco, R. D., Lindgren, E., and Surjan, A. (2014). Asia. In: Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., eds., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1327–1370. � IPCC, (2014). Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. In: Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., Zwickel, T., and Minx, J. C. eds., Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. � IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., eds., Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 976 p. � IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: Mitigation. In: Metz, B., Davidson, O. R., Bosch, P. R., Dave, R., and Meyer, L. A., eds., Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. � IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: Synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K., and Reisinger, A., eds., Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, p. 104. � IPCC. (2014). Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K., and Meyer, L. A., eds., Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 151 p. � Northrop, E., Biru, H., Lima, S., Bouye, M. and Song, R. (2016). Examining the Alignment between the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Sustainable Development Goals [online], pp.1–56. Available at: http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI_INDCs_v5.pdf [Accessed 10 Feb. 2017]. � unfccc.int. (2017). NDC Registry [online]. Available at: http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/Home.aspx [Accessed 5 Apr. 2017].

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FOR MORE INFORMATIONNeha PahujaFellow & Area ConvenorE-mail: [email protected]

Aishwarya RajResearch AssociateE-mail: [email protected]

For further information on NDC-SDG linkages in Asia, log on to <www.NDCfootprints.org>

Centre For Global Environment ResearchThe Energy and Resources InstituteHabitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi -110003 Tel: +91 11 24682100 or 41504900 (Extn 2359)Fax: +91 11 24682144 or 2145www.teriin.org

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