Date post: | 04-Apr-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | javier-f-via-giglio |
View: | 217 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 76
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
1/76
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
2/76
Success Driven ProjectManagement (SDPM)
Approach to project planningand performance analysis
Vladimir Liberzon, PMPPeter S. Mello, PMP, PMI-SP
Spider Project Team
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
3/76
History
Success Driven Project Management (SDPM)methodology was developed in Russia in 90-s andsince then was successfully used in many projects,programs, and organizations
SDPM is supported by Russian PM software SpiderProject but its basic approaches can be used with
other PM software tools
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
4/76
History
Success Driven Project Management methodologyhas some common features with Critical ChainProject Management approaches but manydifferences too
Application of SDPM approaches showed very good
results and the number of companies that implementSDPM is growing very fast
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
5/76
SDPM Ideas
Triple constraint and multiple project success criteriamake project management too complicated.
There is a need in the single and integrated project successcriterion.
The same project schedule and budget targets set for allproject stakeholders leads to project failure.
There is a need for setting different targets for project workforce,for project management team, and for project sponsor.
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
6/76
SDPM Ideas
Target for Project Team Member: Project scheduleand budget shall be optimistic (no reserves included);
Target for Project Management Team: Includes
contingency reserves (scope, time, cost);
Target for Project Sponsor: Project schedule andbudget shall include management reserves forunknown unknowns.
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
7/76
SDPM Ideas
Targets
Project Team Members
Project Management Team
Project Sponsor
Time
Cost
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
8/76
SDPM Ideas
Targets
Project Team Members
Project Management Team
Project Sponsor
Time
Cost
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
9/76
SDPM Ideas
Project management team shall have time and costbuffers for managing project risks and uncertainties.These buffers are not linked with any activity sequence.
Project buffer is a difference between target value and the value
for the same parameter in the optimistic schedule.
Time
Cost
Time bufferManagement
Team
Cost bufferManagement
Team
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
10/76
SDPM Ideas
Targets shall be set using risk simulation.
These targets shall have reasonable probabilities to bemet.
Risk simulation shall calculate necessary project costand time buffers.
Time
Cost
Time bufferManagement
Team
Cost bufferManagement
Team
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
11/76
SDPM Ideas
Project status information is useful but not sufficient fordecision making.
Decision making shall be based on the analysis of project trends.
Project buffers will be consumed during projectexecution.
Project management is about managing these buffers.
If they will remain positive to the moment of project finish thenproject management was successful and the targets werereached.
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
12/76
SDPM Ideas
There is a need to have tools for measuring projectbuffer penetrations and project performance analysis.
The best indicator of buffer penetration and projectperformance status is current probability to meet projecttarget.
If the probability to meet project target is rising thenproject buffer was consumed slower than we expected,in other case project buffer was consumed too fast andproject success is endangered.
Success probability trends are the best integrated
performance indicators they take into considerationproject risks, they depend not only on performanceresults but also on the ro ect environment.
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
13/76
SDPM
SDPM methodology also includes approaches to creatingproject schedule models and organizing project data.
In this presentation we will discuss:o Resource Constrained Scheduling and Resource
Critical Path,
o Risk Simulation methods and objectives,o Setting right project goals,
o How to set and to manage Project Buffers,
o Success Probabilities,o Management by Trends
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
14/76
Project ResourceConstrained Scheduling and
Resource Critical Path
1
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
15/76
Project scheduling without resource limitations takeninto the consideration;
Project/Portfolio resource constrained scheduling(resource leveling);
Calculation of feasible activity floats and those activitiesthat are critical;
C lcul tion of the Pro ect/Portfolio cost m teri l nd
Scheduling Tasks
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
16/76
The problem of project schedule development withoutallowing for resource constraints has a correct
mathematical solution (Critical Path Method), which wouldbe the same for all PM packages, provided that initial dataare identical.
Other tasks are solved using different approaches and
yielding different results.
Critical Path Method
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
17/76
Resource constrained schedules produced by differentPM software are different. The software that calculatesshortest resource constrained schedules may save afortune to its users.
That is why we pay most attention to resource-constrained schedule optimization.
Resource constrained
scheduling
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
18/76
Traditional notion of Critical Path works only in case ofunlimited resources availability.
Let us consider a simple project consisting of fiveactivities, presented at the next slide.
Activities 2 and 5 are performed by the same resource.
Sample Project before leveling
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
19/76
Please pay attention to activities that became critical.Now delaying each of the activities 1, 2 and 5 will delay
the project finish date.
We call these activities Resource Critical and their
sequence comprises Resource Critical Path.
Sample Project after leveling
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
20/76
For many projects it is necessary to simulate financing andproduction, and to calculate project schedules taking into
account all limitations (including availability of renewableresources, material supply and financing schedules);
True critical path should account for all scheduleconstraints including resource and financial limitations;
We call it Resource Critical Path (RCP) to distinguish it
from the traditional interpretation of the critical pathdefinition.
Resource Critical Path
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
21/76
The calculation of RCP is similar to the calculation of thetraditional critical path with the exception that both early
and late dates (and corresponding activity floats) arecalculated during forward and backward resource (andmaterial, and cost) leveling;
This technique permits to determine feasible resourceconstrained floats;
Activity resource constrained float shows the period for
which activity execution may be delayed within thecurrent schedule and with the set of resources availablein this project without delaying project finish.
Resource Critical Path
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
22/76
As you may notice in our example, Resource CriticalPath may include activities that are not linked with logical
dependencies.
Resource Critical Path is actually not the path but thelongest sequence of activities in the current schedule.
One activity may depend on another because theseactivities are performed by the same resources. We callthese dependencies as Resource dependencies.
Resource dependencies may be shown in the projectschedule with the dotted arrows but they are the result ofthe project leveling and not initial information like logicaldependencies.
Resource Critical Path
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
23/76
Success Criteria
2
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
24/76
If project success criteria are set as finishing project ontime and under budget then proper decision making will
be complicated;
For example, project managers will not be able toestimate if their decisions to spend more money andfinish the project earlier are reasonable;
We suggest to set one integrated criterion of theproject/program success or failure.
Project Success Criteria
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
25/76
Many projects can be considered as business oriented:
Construction of roads, power plants, bridges, ports,
telecommunication networks, new product development andproduction etc. brings economic results and generate futureprofits;
Implementation of the corporate information system will improveorganization processes, etc;
In any case the delay of project finish date usuallyincreases project indirect cost, and acceleration meanssaving some money.
Project Success Criteria
S C
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
26/76
So each day of project delay means some money lossesand finishing project earlier means additional profit;
We can define cost of a project day (maybe separate
and different for acceleration and delay) estimating theseprofits and losses;
This way we define the rules of the game that is calledProject Management
Project Success Criteria
P j S C i i
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
27/76
Another option to set the profit that should beachieved at some point in time basing on the forecast of
the revenues that will be obtained after the project willdeliver its results;
Such success criteria will permit to weight time and moneymaking managerial decisions.
At the next slide you may see the project schedule thatis calculated without allowing for project financing andsupply restrictions. There is a period when project has
no money to proceed.
Project Success Criteria
P j S C i i
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
28/76
If project manager
finds enoughmoney then projecttotal profit to thetarget date will beclose to $245,695.
Project Success Criteria
P j t S C it i
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
29/76
If we calculate
project resource,supply and costconstrained
schedule then itbecome clear thatthe project willloose more than
$17,000 due tonecessary delays.
Project Success Criteria
P j t S C it i
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
30/76
Maybe it is reasonable to borrow money or to find someother solution?
To be able to weight options and to select the best it isnecessary to consider not only expenses but also futureprofits.
Proper project (program, portfolio) schedule model is thepowerful tool that helps to select the best decisions.
Project Success Criteria
3
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
31/76
Risk Analysis &
Success Driven
Project Management
3
Wh i k l i
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
32/76
Our experience in project planning shows that theprobability of successful implementation of
deterministic project schedules and budgets is verylow. Therefore project and portfolio planningtechnology should always include risk simulation to
produce reliable results.
Why risk analysis
Ri k Sim l ti
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
33/76
Risk simulation may be based on
Monte Carlo simulation or use threescenarios approach.
We prefer 3 scenario approach forthe reasons explained further.
Risk Simulation
Monte Carlo and 3 Scenarios
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
34/76
Lets look at the difference between accuracy and precision.
Accuracy:Precision:
Monte Carlo and 3 Scenarios
Monte Carlo and 3 Scenarios
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
35/76
Monte Carlo means Accuracy but lack of Precision.
3 Scenarios means Precision but lack of Accuracy. The choice depends on management approach.
Our approach may be called Management by Trends. Applying Trend Analysis we rely on data precision.
We think that trends supply management with mostvaluable information on project performance.
We think that trend analysis helps to discover
performance problems ASAP and to apply correctiveactions if necessary.
Monte Carlo and 3 Scenarios
Monte Carlo and 3 Scenarios
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
36/76
It is the main reason why in our software 3 scenariosapproach was selected.
We think that the quality of initial data for project risksimulation is never good enough but Monte Carlo risksimulation creates an impression of accuracy that is
actually dangerous for project managers.
In any case we need Optimistic schedule and budget forproject performance management.
And we need to understand what happens with successprobability during project execution and so we need dataprecision.
Monte Carlo and 3 Scenarios
Risk Simulation
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
37/76
A project planner obtains three estimates (optimistic,
most probable and pessimistic) for all initial project data(duration, volumes, productivity, calendars, costs, etc.)and creates optimistic, most probable and pessimistic
scenarios of project performance Risk events are selected and ranked using the usual
approach to risk qualitative analysis
Usually we recommend to include risk events with theprobability exceeding 90% in the optimistic scenario,exceeding 50% in the most probable scenario, and all
selected risks in the pessimistic scenario
Risk Simulation
three scenarios approach
Risk Simulation
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
38/76
Most probable and pessimistic project scenarios may
contain additional activities and costs due tocorresponding risk events and may employ additionalresources and different calendars.
As the result project planner obtains three expectedfinish dates, costs and material consumptions for allproject phases and the project as a whole.
They are used to rebuild probability curves for thedates, costs and material requirements.
Risk Simulation
three scenarios approach
Risk Simulation
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
39/76
If probability curve is known the required probability to
meet project target defines the target that shall be set. The area under the probability curve to the left of the
target value determines the probability to meet the
target.
P=S(blue)/S(whole)
Risk Simulation
three scenarios approach
Project/Program Targets
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
40/76
Target dates of most projects usually are predefined.
They may be set not only for the whole program/projectbut also for its major phases.
Project planning includes determining how to organize
project/program execution to be able to meet requiredtarget dates with the reasonable probability.
Project/Program Targets
Success Probabilities
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
41/76
Success Probabilities
Probabilities to meet approved project targets we callSuccess Probabilities. These targets may be set for all
project parameters that will be controlled (profit,expenses, duration, material consumption).
Target dates do not belong to any schedule. Usuallythey are between most probable and pessimistic dates.
A set of target dates and costs for project phases
(analogue of milestone schedule) is the real projectbaseline.
But baseline schedule does not exist!
Performance Measurement
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
42/76
Performance Measurement
problems It means that application of usual project performance
measurement approaches (like Earned Value Analysis)is complicated.
Without certain schedule and cost baselines it isimpossible to calculate Planned and Earned Value.
If we select some schedule (Optimistic or Most
Probable) as the project management baseline thevalues of Performance Indices that are lower than 1 donot mean that project performance is worse than
expected.
Buffers
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
43/76
We recommend to use optimistic schedule for setting tasksfor project work force and manage project reserves.
The schedule that is calculated backward from the targetdates with most probable estimates of activity durations wecall Critical schedule.
The difference between start and finish dates in current andcritical schedules we call start and finish time buffers(contingency reserves).
The difference between activity (phase) cost that hasdefined probability to be met and optimistic cost of the sameactivity (phase) we call cost buffer.
Buffers
Sample Critical Schedule
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
44/76
There are time,cost and material
buffers that showcontingencyreserves not onlyfor a project as a
whole (analogue ofCritical Chainproject buffer) butalso for any activityin the optimisticproject schedule.
Sample Critical Schedule
4
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
45/76
Project/Program/Portfolio
Performance Management
4
Performance Measurement
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
46/76
Performance measurement routine shall be set for allprojects belonging to the portfolio/program.
Portfolio/Program schedule is revised regularly. For mostlarge programs it is done weekly. To be able toreschedule the portfolio/program it is necessary that allprojects belonging to the portfolio/program have the samedata date.
So the portfolio/program management team requires fromall project management teams to enter actual data of theirprojects at specified dates and time (for an example: each
week on Tuesday before 12:00 the actual status onTuesday 08:00 shall be entered).
Performance Measurement
Performance Measurement
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
47/76
If different projects have different data dates thenprogram scheduling became impossible and most
reports will not be reliable.
So setting the rules for entering actual data is mandatoryfor program/portfolio management.
Project/Program/Portfolio planners shall keepperformance archives to be able to get trends of
project/program/portfolio parameters.
Performance Measurement
Management by Trends
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
48/76
We recommend to manage projects and portfolios basingon the analysis of performance trends.
If some project is 5 days ahead of the baseline but oneweek ago it was 8 days and one month ago 20 daysahead of the baseline then some corrective action shall beconsidered.
If the project is behind the schedule but the distance
become smaller then project team improved projectperformance process and corrective actions are notnecessary.
Management by Trends
Management by Trends
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
49/76
So trend analysis shows short term performance resultsand helps to make timely management decisions.
Usually project management team analyses trends ofmain project parameters like duration, cost, profit.
Management by Trends
Earned Value Analysis
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
50/76
Earned Value Analysis is another method that is usedfor estimating program/project performance.
But this method shall be used very carefully and only incombination with other methods because:
the real situation may be distorted,
project managers are motivated to do expensive jobsASAP and cheap jobs ALAP,
it does not consider if activities that were performedwere critical or not,
it does not consider project risks.
Earned Value Analysis
Success Probability Trends
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
51/76
We consider success probability trends as the reallyintegrated project performance measurement tool.
Success probabilities may change due to:
Performance results
Scope changes
Cost changes
Risk changes
Resource changes
Thus success probability trends reflect not only projecterform nce results but lso wh t is oin on round the
Success Probability Trends
Measurement of buffer
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
52/76
Success probability is a measure of buffer penetration.
If in the middle of the project half of project buffer wasconsumed it does not mean that the project is performed asexpected.
If most risks were behind then success probability willbecome higher and it will tell us that project buffer
consumption was lower than expected, if successprobability went down then buffer consumption is too highand it is necessary to consider corrective actions.
Measurement of buffer
penetration
Success Driven Project
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
53/76
Success probability trends may be used as the only
information about project performance at the topmanagement level because this information is sufficientfor performance estimation and decision making.
We call Management by Trends methodology SuccessDriven Project Management.
j
Management
5
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
54/76
Conclusions
5
Success Driven Project
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
55/76
1. Multiple project/portfolio success criteria make
management decisions complicated and subjective.
1. We recommend to set one integrated project successcriterion for decision making and performance analysis.
1. We recommend to set reliable target dates and costsbasing on risk analysis and simulation, but to use
optimistic project schedule for setting tasks for projectwork force.
j
Management Tips
Success Driven Project
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
56/76
4. Time and Cost contingency buffer penetrations shall be
regularly re-estimated. If these buffers are consumedtoo fast there is a need for corrective actions;
5. We recommend to keep project archives and to analysetrends of project parameters;
5. If trends are negative corrective actions shall be
considered even if the status is good;
j
Management Tips
Success Driven Project
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
57/76
7. Earned Value Analysis supplies management with the
useful information on project status. But it shall be usedcarefully and only as the supplement to other methodsof project performance measurement. In any case it is
useful to analyze EV parameters trends;
8. Success Probability trends are the best integratedindicators of project health.
Positive trends show that recent project performance is better than
expected. Negative trends show that buffers are consumed fasterthan expected and corrective actions may be necessary.
j
Management Tips
Success Driven Project
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
58/76
9. Success probability trends depend not only on projectperformance but also on risks that may changeduring project life cycle.
Success Probability Trends may be considered asthe best integrated project performanceindicators necessary for proper decision making.
j
Management Tips
APPENDIX 1
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
59/76
Success Driven Project Management and Critical Chain Project Management
59
APPENDIX 1
RCP and CC
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
60/76
Resource Critical Path is the same as Critical Chainexcept suggested approach to determining Critical
Chain does not include taking into account supply andfinancial constraints.
We never met the clear description of CC calculation
algorithms.
60
Drum Resource
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
61/76
CCPM suggests to find Drum resource and create theschedule and determine Critical Chain scheduling
activities of this Drum resource.
SDPM does not look for drum resource. At differentproject phases different resources may be critical,
Resource Critical Path is calculated applying traditionalresource leveling.
61
Optimistic or Most
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
62/76
SDPM suggests to use Optimistic estimates for project
work force management.
CCPM suggests to use most probable estimates.
Using most probable estimates still means that there are
some reserves for usual problems and these reserveswill be lost in any case (Parkinson Law):
WORK EXPANDS SO AS TO FILL THE TIME
AVAILABLE FOR ITS COMPLETION
Probable?
62
Project Buffers
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
63/76
CCPM suggests to estimate excessive contingencyreserves that people added to most probable activity
duration estimates, take them away, summarize and putin a dummy activity that is called Project Buffer andfollows the last activity of Critical Chain.
SDPM uses risk simulation for setting reliable targets andproject time buffer is the difference between acceptedproject schedule finish and target finish. Project time
buffer does not belong to any chain.
Besides, SDPM also works with Project Cost Buffers andMaterial Buffers.
63
Feeding Buffers
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
64/76
CCPM suggests to create feeding buffers on activitiesthat precede Critical Chain activities to protect Critical
Chain.
CCPM proposes that Critical Chain shall never change.
SDPM does not protect any chain project schedule isregularly recalculated and risks analyzed.
Besides Resource Critical Paths in optimistic, mostprobable, and pessimistic schedules may be different.
Change of RCP during project execution is usual.
64
Multitasking
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
65/76
CCPM suggests to pipeline projects in the portfolio (toperform them one after another) to avoid multitasking.
SDPM suggests almost the same always applypriorities to the portfolio projects calculating portfolioschedule. But if resources are available they may be
used in the projects with lower priorities.
Besides there are special cases when multitasking is
useful. An example is in the next slide.
65
Multitasking
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
66/76
With multitasking:
Without multitasking:
66
Buffer Penetration
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
67/76
CCPM does not suggest reliable quantitative methods for
analyzing buffer penetration. Dividing buffer into threezones (green, yellow, red) is one of them. Entering yellowzone means an alert, red requires corrective actions.
SDPM estimates buffer penetration by successprobability trends. If the trend is negative then projectbuffer is consumed faster than expected.
If in the middle of the project performance project bufferis half consumed it may mean excellent performance if
most risks are behind and poor performance if most risksare ahead.67
Estimation
APPENDIX 2
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
68/76
SDPMwith other PM
software
SDPM with PM software and
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
69/76
SDPM is fully supported by Russian PM software Spider
Project but it does not mean that SDPM cannot beapplied with other PM software.
We will show that it is easy with any PM softwarethough more complicated than with Spider Project.
Excel
SDPM with PM software and
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
70/76
We will start with discussing simplified calculation of the
probability to meet project target.
Lets suppose that we got optimistic, most probable andpessimistic values of some project parameter.
It does not matter much what shape of probability curvewill be selected. Remember that our initial data are not
perfect and we plan to manage trends. So lets supposethat the distribution is triangular.
Excel
SDPM with PM software and
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
71/76
Lets restore the triangle distribution and calculate the
probability to meet some target T.
It is an area to the left of T divided by the whole area ofthe triangle. It is not hard to get the formula shownbelow where X is the probability to meet target T.
Excel
SDPM with PM software and
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
72/76
Now lets look at the simple sample project where we
defined optimistic, most probable and pessimisticactivity durations using PERT option in MS Project2007.
Applying PERT weights 6, 0, 0 we will make expectedschedule the same as optimistic, with weights 0, 0, 6expected schedule will become pessimistic.
Excel
SDPM with PM software and
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
73/76
Lets enter total project durations and formula forcalculating target probability into Excel.
You may see how Excel calculated probabilities to meetdifferent target dates.
Optimistic schedule shall be used for setting tasks for
project workforce.
Excel
SDPM with PM software and
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
74/76
During project performance planned project duration inoptimistic, probable, and pessimistic scenarios will change.
Entering these data in Excel we will be able to calculatecurrent values of success probability.
Excel
SDPM with PM software and
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
75/76
When probability value reach 1 we may be almost sure
that target date will be met.
Probability trend shows when we had problems and whenthey were solved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Probability
Excel
7/29/2019 SDPM Approach to Project Planning and Performance Analysis
76/76
Thank YouFor Attending!
References for SDPM: www.sdpmworld.comwww.spiderproject.com
Contacting the authors:[email protected]@spiderproject.com.br
http://www.sdpmworld.com/http://www.sdpmworld.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.sdpmworld.com/http://www.sdpmworld.com/