22
Jamie Morison
Polar Science Center, University of Washington
PresentationSEARCH Open Science Meeting
Seattle, WashingtonWednesday, October 29, 2003
SEARCH Implementation
SEARCH
Motivation
Axiom - The Arctic has been characterized in recent decades by a complex of significant, interrelated, pan-Arctic changes (Unaami).
Hypothesis 1 - Unaami is related to a spin up of the atmospheric Polar Vortex.
Hypothesis 2 - Unaami is a component of climate change.
Hypothesis 3 - Feedbacks among the ocean, the land, and the atmosphere are critical to Unaami.
Hypothesis 4 - The physical changes of Unaami have large impacts on the Arctic ecosystems and society.
Implementation
To test these hypotheses and help society deal with change requires a program long-term, large-scale observations, analysis, and modeling.
SEARCHImplementation Strategyhttp://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/index.html
Activitieshttp://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/Activities/activities.html
E A RC H
ASR - Arctic System Reanalysis
SEARCH InteragencyProgram Management
Committee
SEARCH Science SteeringCommittee
Responding toChange Panel
Understanding ChangePanel
Detecting ChangePanel
Draft (12/3/02)SEARCH Organization Chart
e.g., SEARCH Coordination Office
SEARCH Activitiy Area, Arctic System Reanalysis
WG
WG
CLIVARWorking Group
ACSYS/CliCLiason
WG
WG
WG
WG
Partnerships
e.g.
CLIVAR
ACSYS/CliC
WGLinkages and Global Coupling
Distributed Marine Observatories
Distributed Terrestrial Observatories
Large-scale Atmospheric Observation
Social and Economic Interaction
Defining and Quantifying Unaami
WGSocial Response
SSC Present and New (2004)
Present SSCJamie Morison (Chair)Lou Codispoti (ExCom)Jim Overland (ExCom)Mark Serreze (ExCom)Vera AlexanderTom DelworthBob DicksonHajo EickenJackie GrebmeierKonrad HughenGeorge HuntJack KruseDennis LettenmaierDave McGuirePeter SchlosserGus ShaverJohn Walsh
New SSCPeter Schlosser (Chair)Larry Hamilton (Vice-Chair)Jamie Morison (Past Chair)Bob DicksonJennifer FrancisJackie GrebmeierKonrad HughenGeorge HuntDennis LettenmaierJim MaslanikDave McGuirePeter RhinesGus ShaverKoni SteffenJohn Walsh
Past Members: Dave Battisti, Ed Carmack - Humphrey Melling, Doug Martinson, Jonathan Overpeck, Charlie Vorosmarty
DQU: Detecting and Quantifying Unaami and Other Modes of Variability
Use paleoclimate, historical, archeological records as well as more recent observations to better define the scope of Unaami and its relation to other modes of variability.
DQU Proxy Sites
DTO: Distributed Terrestrial Observatories
Make large-scale atmospheric, hydrological, glaciological, and ecosystem observations in the terrestrial environment.
Distributed Terrestrial Observatories
Russia
Nor
AlaskaEureka
Alert
Greenland
Canada
Thule
Tiksi
Arcic Ocean
Distributed TerrestrialObservatories
Kolyma R
Lena R
Ob R
Mackenzie R
Yukon R
Yenisey R
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x x
x
x
x
xx
x Extensive Site
Intermediate Site(e.g., ITEX, CEON)
Intensive Site
Barrow
Cherksiy
Svalbard
Resolute
Abisko
BonanzaToolik
DMO: Distributed Marine Observatories
Make large-scale atmospheric, oceanographic, sea ice and ecosystem observations in the marine environment.
Distributed Marine Observatories
Norway
Eureka
Alert
Greenland
Canada
Thule
Barrow
Svalbard
Resolute
AbiskoKolyma R
Lena R
Ob R
Mackenzie R
Yukon R
Yenisey R
Russia
Tiksi
Cherksiy
Distributed MarineObservatories
IABP Drifting Buoys
2
34
5
10
6
7
8
11
12
1
Ocean Pathway Moorings
9
13
15
14
16
Cross Shelf Exchange Moorings
17
20
19
18
Basin Moorings
21
22
23
24
25
Gateway Moorings
42
41
43
4445
46
Shelf Moorings & Surveys
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
35
34
3337
36
Clic Hydrographic SectionsOther Sections
ASOF Hydrographic Sections
38
39
40
Automated Drifting StationsUpward Looking Sonars
LAO: Large-scale Atmospheric Observatories
Make large-scale atmospheric observations beyond the the marine or terrestrial observing systems.
Large-scale Atmospheric Observatories
Norway
Greenland
Canada
Thule
Resolute
AbiskoKolyma R
Lena R
Ob R
Mackenzie R
Yukon R
Yenisey R
Cherksiy
Large-scale AtmosphericObservatoriesAlaska
Russia
Eureka
IABP Drifting Buoys
Automated Drifting Stations
DTO Intensive Site
DTO Intermediate Site
x DTO Extensive Site
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x x
x
x
x
xxBonanza
Toolik
GCOS - GTOSGCOS - GTOS
Remote Sensing, e.g. TOVSRemote Sensing, e.g. TOVS
AlertAlertBarrowBarrow
SvalbardSvalbard
Major Weather StationsMajor Weather Stations
TiksiTiksi
LGC: Linkages and Global Coupling
Use modeling and analysis * to elucidate the connections between Unaami and global climate and the connections within the arctic system as they pertain to Unaami.
* use DQU, DMU, DTO, process studies as required
ASR: Arctic System Reanalysis
A program of data assimilation and modeling to develop optimum estimates of difficult or impossible to observe critical parameters of the arctic system.
ASR: Arctic System Reanalysis
Optimal
Assimilation or
Filtering Method
Observations
Optimal
Estimates
Model
Output
Nudging
Arctic Subsystem
Model
(e.g. Ice-Ocean Model)
SEI: Social and Economic Interaction
Examine the interactions of the physical and biological elements of Unaami and the social and economic systems within the context of other forces of social change.
SOR: Social Response
Research social and economic adaptation to climate change in the past and apply research on Unaami to economic and social concerns in the future. Find ways to communicate the results of SEARCH to decision makers.
SEI SOR
CommunityCo-ops
IndustryCo-ops
Decision Makers
Information
SEI, SOR and Co-ops
Implementation “Opportunities”
Internationalization
Necessary. How do we do it?
Fidelity of Action with Plans
Important for a coordinated long-term program. How do we do it?
